adam

Absolutely. This team is going to go wherever Caleb takes them. If he has a "normal" rookie year, we will probably end up with 7-9 wins. If he has a year that many expect him to have (just based on historical trends), the Bears should win 10+. I just found it interesting that the Bears were 11th (higher than expected) and had the biggest DVOA jump that I could find (ever). This year's team should be better, if not as good as that team was but for an entire year. The 11th best team is a 10 win team, which tracks with pretty much all other metrics, SoS, WAR, AV, PFF, etc. I like that kinda party!

So the Bears ended up as the 22nd-best team for Total DVOA for the season. However, they finished 11th in Weighted DVOA (games later in the season have more value) which was somewhat surprising to me. 26 teams remained within 4 spots +/- when comparing season DVOA and Weighted DVOA. That leaves 6 teams that moved more than normal, 2 teams jumped up 11, and 4 teams dropped between 5 and 7 spots: 1. CHI +11 (+13.8) 2. LVR +11 (+12.7) ------------------------ 29. CLE -5 30. HOU -6 31. JAX -7 32. PHI -7 So a few things. I am not giving CHI or LVR enough credit for last year's last season surge and I am probably giving HOU, JAX, and PHI too much credit when they benefitted greatly from hot starts. PHI for example, ended the season 21st in Weighted DVOA. That projects for them to have a losing record this year. Going off Weighted DVOA, this is how the season projects for these 6 teams: CHI 11-6 LVR 10-7 CLE 9-8 HOU 8-9 JAX 8-9 PHI 7-10 Obviously, more data goes into outcomes, but it is nice to see the Bears projections matching up across multiple data sets whereas a team like PHI is all over the map. https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

lol good one, the vote is day to day.

It was his own vote.

Nate Davis snubbed, he had one vote.

That is a good list. Lewis is also like a dad/uncle to some of the younger guys as he is the age of their parents lol. He is like a team elder or shaman. He has seen so much football that he can provide something that no other player can (outside of Scales). Adding him as a coach would be a smart move.

Yes we have 2 spots available. You can move a player, then add another.

Another comparison, if you just use record and pts differential, here are the Bears comps over the last 15 years. Anything older doesn't seem like a valid comparison because how the game has changed. 2019 - Ravens 4-0 +66 > 14-2 2013 - Seahawks 4-0 +74 > 13-3* (won SB) 2012 - Seahawks 4-0 +78 > 11-5 2011 - Lions 4-0 +67 > 10-6 So the last 4 teams to go undefeated in the preseason with a +60 pts differential went a combined 48-16 (12-4 average record) in that upcoming season. If you average the two sets of comparisons (PFF Grades + Record/Pt Diff), the Bears are projected to finish 11-6.

Yeah, it definitely needs to have context. I was trying to find any real comps to the Bears after seeing the high grades and the only two teams even remotely close were the 2020 Pats (highest OVR PFF Grade) and 2022 Dolphins (led league for OVR, OFF, and DEF). So if you compare NE's 2020 preseason to the Bears this year: The Bears opponents' combined record from 2023 was 41-27 with the worst team being the 9-8 Bengals. The Patriots opponents' combined record from 2020 was 17-30-1 with the best team being the 7-9 Division Winning Commanders. So in reality, that was a solid Pats team punching down on weak teams (even if it is subs and bottom 53 dudes). So the Bears preseason looks even better. Then when you compare to MIA in 2022, Miami went 2-1 in the preseason, not 4-0. So I think we just witnessed the most dominant preseason in NFL history and didn't even know it.

I was going thru some stats and just came across the fact that the Bears were the highest-rated team in the preseason (per PFF) with an OVR grade of 89.5 (2nd highest preseason grade in PFF history). JAX was 2nd with 88.0 and DEN was the only other team over 80 with a 81.1 The Bears also had the #1 graded offense AND #1 graded defense. The defense was so good that they cleared the next best team (NYJ) by almost 5pts. I know it is only preseason, but I did find some correlation between Preseason PFF grades and regular-season success. Last season, the top 5 graded defenses in the preseason were: GB, TB, DET, HOU, and IND/BUF tied for 5th. All teams had a winning record and only IND missed the playoffs. For overall grades, the top 5 teams were LVR, GB, TB, KC, and BUF. LVR was the worst at 8-9. GB and TB were the only teams to be in the top 5 overall, in offense and defense, and both teams made the playoffs. The Bears are the only team in the PFF era to lead the NFL overall, in offense and defense with all grades over 80.0. The only other team to lead the league across all categories were the 2022 Dolphins (9-8 and made the playoffs) but they had a defensive grade of 75.4 that year. Circling back, the highest OVR PFF Grade for a preseason was the 2021 Patriots (89.7), so the Bears were 0.2 shy of that mark. The Patriots were 10-7 that season. I know people take PFF with a grain of salt, but it does look like when you take in the macro view, there is some correlation there.

I think the Bears record will be another factor. The Bears will have 8 games in the books before the trade deadline (NOV 5th). If they are 6-2 (which is very possible), I think they will acquire either a DT or Edge to help with the playoff push, even if Booker and Dexter are holding their own. TEN, IND, CAR, WAS, and ARZ should be wins. Then it's HOU, LAR, and JAX in the other 3. LAR and JAX are at home. Win one of those three and the Bears are 6-2. Interestingly enough, the Bears are favored in 5 games currently, and dogs in 3 (HOU, IND, and JAX). IND and JAX are by 1 pt and HOU by 3.5.

I think a top 10 defense for the entire year would still be a massive jump from last year. Yes they were top 5 for a good chunk of the season, but depending on what metric you use, they were not even a top 15 defense for the entire season.

The Bears would have to go 7-10 or worse for Flus to be fired. At that point, something else went horribly wrong, not necessarily something to do with his coaching.

Those regional scouts get a ton of games in as well. From what I have heard, most go to multiple games a day and weekend.

Yeah, it is definitely an odd situation to be in, and a place we have not been in, in a long time.

I had 33-10, so we are not that far off. I may have missed a defensive TD in my prediction

Toure is a sneaky pickup. Obviously, Tonyan or Patrick didn't divulge much about the GB offense. Hopefully Toure does lol.

Carter ended up on the Carolina PS, so the Bears actually could sign him back as long as it is to the 53-man. The same thing goes for Bates in NY. Those teams would have to elevate them to retain them.

Here are my game predictions beyond the score: First Reception: Moore First TD: Everett First Sack: Sweat First INT: Byard (Byard Revenge Game)

Real football starts in 6 days and GB gets abused in Brazil in a week. Then we cap it off with a huge Bears win on Sunday at Soldier Field! We made it!

That is impressive. Taylor was always going to be a stud. Booker was a question mark, but early on, you could tell that his motor was going to give him an edge (no pun intended). I do find it funny that Bucky includes 2nd rounders on the list. I don't remember many 2nd rounders being "overlooked". I know he states outside of the 1st round but Nubin was the first Safety taken, so I don't know why he would not expect Nubin to look good or better than others, when as the first Safety, and top-50 pick, you would hope he would.

Current 53-man Roster: QB - Williams, Bagent RB - Swift, Herbert, Johnson, Homer, Blasingame TE - Kmet, Everett, Lewis WR - Moore, Allen, Odunze, Scott, Jones Jr, Carter OL - Jones, Wright, Shelton, Jenkins, Davis, Murray, Bates, Pryor, Amegadjie, Kramer DL - Sweat, Taylor, Walker, Hardy, Booker, Dexter, Billings, Williams, Pickens, Robinson LB - Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell, Ogbongbemiga CB - Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Smith, Jones, Blackwell S - Brisker, Byard, Hicks, Owens ST - Santos, Taylor, (Daly - will be elevated from PS on Week 1) Blasingame was added in place of Scales, so I assume Kramer (to PS), Bates (injury), or Pickens (injury) will have to be dropped off the 53-man to elevate Daly. 16-player practice squad: QB Austin Reed TE Stephen Carlson WR Collin Johnson WR Samori Toure (GB, 7th Round) OL Theo Benedet OL Jake Curhan OL Chris Glase (NYJ, UDFA) DL Sam Roberts (NE, 6th Round) DL Byron Cowart DL Jamree Kromah LB Micah Baskerville LB Carl Jones Jr. DB Reddy Steward DB Tarvarius Moore DB Ro Torrence LS Scott Daly (DET, UDFA)

Welcome to the board! I agree, there has been so much pain, but CW has the best shot to turn this around. Very few rookie QBs have come into a better situation, and very QBs have the pedigree coming in like Caleb has. I don't know if those two have ever happened in the same year like this year. Also, every team that ended the preseason with a +60 point differential has made the playoffs. So we have to keep that going too.

Stinger, Keepers need to be locked in by tomorrow, at the latest (I have to lock them in the day before the draft). So if your guys have any keepers, please let me know in here or have them lock them in, in the app.

OK no problem. It looks like they all paid, only PapaBear is left.