adam

Bears 10-4, still have outside shot at a first-round bye, though very unlikely. The game is still important to at least lock in the #3 seed. Interesting to see the line only at -4. Based on some bookie sites, a lot of money going SF's way. Hopefully not a trap game, we need to finish strong and Trubisky needs to string together some solid games. Bears 27-13.

I would be great to get some work in before the playoffs. Even if it is just for a few series. Conditioning is going to be the issue. Hopefully he can knock off some rust and get some game time in versus Minnesota.

During the press conference, MT mentioned that GB was taking away the deep ball so he had to take what they gave him.

12 players recognized, 5 on offense and 7 on defense. So more than half the starters were recognized. 8 draft picks and 4 free agents/trades: Mack, Hicks, Trevathan, and Burton. Guys like Robinson, Gabriel, Daniels, Goldman, Amos, Howard, Miler, and Amukamara who didn't have Pro Bowl numbers really fill out the roster.

I was thinking about this as well. Either way he will get his 5th year, whether that is with an option year or new contract will depend on his health and durability.

Yes, not a dream. Worst to First in one year. Looking back at our projections, I don't know if anyone expected them to be this good.

Gabriel averages 10.0 yds per catch and 42.8 yds a game. He is 60/599 right now, Robinson is 49/669 and Miller has dropped off to 30/399. He has half as many receptions as Gabriel, which is shocking at this point. Again, not a big deal as we are winning, but interesting nonetheless considering we traded up to get him.

1. NO 12-2 (vs PIT, vs CAR) - goes 1-1 finishes 13-3. 2. LAR 11-3 (@ARZ, vs SF) - goes 2-0, finishes 13-3 3. CHI 10-4 (@SF, @MIN) - goes 2-0, finishes 12-4. 4. DAL 8-6 (vs TB, @NYG) - goes 2-0, finishes 10-6. ------------ 5. SEA 8-6 (vs KC, vs ARZ) - goes 1-1, finishes 9-7. 6. MIN 7-6-1 (@DET, vs CHI) - goes 1-1, finishes 8-7-1. ------------ 7. PHI 7-7 (vs HOU, @WAS) - goes 1-1, finishes 8-8. 8. WAS 7-7 (@TEN, vs PHI) - goes 0-2, finishes 7-9. #1 Seed – win out and LAR finishes 1-1 and NO finishes 0-2. #2 Seed – win out and either LAR finishes 1-1 or NO finishes 1-2. #3 Seed – win 1 of 2 or DAL with 1 loss or tie. #4 Seed – lose 2 and DAL wins 2 We seem to control who we play if we end up with the #3 seed. If we beat MIN in Week 17, they either end up missing playoffs with one of the 7-7 teams winning their last two or finish as the 6 Seed (where I am projecting them). If we rest players and MIN wins in Week 17, they would slide to the #5 seed and we would more than likely play Seattle as the #6.

Miller had back to back games with 6 targets against BUF and DET, but has tailed off the last few weeks to zero against GB, only 1 against LAR, and 2 against NYG. I know the team spreads the ball around but only 3 targets the last 3 weeks seems odd compared to his production earlier in the year. The only change that I can see is having him return kickoffs. What do you think? Injury? Lack of grasping the offense? Pass Pro? He was looking like a true playmaker but now seems like an afterthought in the offense. Very interesting amid the team success. He has 5 TDs, so he produces when given the chance.

This sums up the game nicely:

First Division Title since 2010, best Division record since 2010, first 10 win season since 2012, +119 Point Differential biggest margin since +172 in 2006. Will have over 400 pts scored on the season (383 now), and have only done that in 2013 (Trestman), 2006 (SB), 1985 (SB), and 1965. We lead the league in TO Ratio, the last time we did that, 1985. With a solid running game, and no bad turnovers on offense, this team has a chance to be special. Let's just pray that Jackson's injury is not too bad.

QB Comparison: Trubisky: 20/28, 71.4%, 235 yds, 8.4 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sack, 120.4 QB Rating Rodgers: 25/42, 59.5%, 274 yds, 6.5 Y/A, 0 TD, 1 INT, 5 Sacks, 68.9 QB Rating Mack with 2.5 sacks, Floyd with 2, Jackson with 1 INT, Smith with 10 tackles Great team win! Let's just not run Mizzell on crucial 3rd Downs, leave it up to Cohen and Howard.

Woo hoo, 10 wins, Division Champs, playoff-berth, and knocked GB out of the playoffs!

Eddie Jackson with the pick, then gets his ankle twisted underneath him on the return. Ugh, it didn't look good.

Game is on Nagy now. Why give GB life and go for it on 4th and 3 at midfield after running Mizzell on 3rd down? Seriously. A horrible sequence. We need a TD drive now.

Yeah, we are really putting something special together here.

Great first half, 14-3 lead. Defense doing what they always do, and offense actually moving the ball. Trubisky looks much better this week, 14/20, 174 yds, 1 TD pass.

Here we go, biggest game in a loonnnngggggg time. The NFC North title, a playoff berth, double-digit wins, a guaranteed winning record in the division, and potentially knocking GB out of the playoffs, and at Soldier Field. It doesn't get much better than this!

There is over $20M tied up in White, Sims, Massie, and Acho, and most of that could come off the books after this year. Even if Trubisky's cap hit jumps to $25M in his 5th year, the $20M would easily cover the difference in his pay bump without impacting other parts of the roster. If Long is still dealing with injuries after next season, cutting him would save another $8M and $2M for Parkey. They also project the cap to go up around $10-12M per year, from $177M this year to $187-191M next year, and another $10M to $200M by 2020: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000998860/article/nfl-salary-cap-for-2019-projected-at-187m1911m Just that $10M bump would allow us to re-sign Amos/Callahan without any impacts to the cap/roster this year. For me the biggest dead weight on the roster is White with Sims a close second. Long might fall in that category if he can't stay healthy, even though when he plays, he is worth it. Massie and Acho are getting up there to where it would be hard to justify keeping them around for their salaries. So the way I see it, we will be able to keep the core group of players intact for another 3 years without cap issues, 2021-2022 seems like it will be the point where they will have to make some tough decisions.

I just averaged the 3 together, but can easily do a rolling average for the same values. It will just smooth out some of the spikes.

I took a look at Trubisky's numbers from all his starts in his career, averaged every 3 games together to see if there were any obvious trends (see pic below): So since his first 3 starts (T1) in 2017, he is basically trending upwards in every statistical category. That is the good news. However, Since Week 6 of this season, he has dropped in every major statistical category and has had a steep drop off in the last two weeks. If he can get back to even just career averages, we are a deep playoff team. If he can play near his best, we have as good of a shot at a Super Bowl this year as any other team.

Interesting to see the Bears as the 2nd most likely win only behind Baltimore over TB. The line also slide to -6 from opening - 4.5. Most people, including myself, harps on the need for the offense to be better, and it definitely does. However, the Bears record is solely based on the opponent's points scored. We are 9-0 when we allow 22 or less and 0-4 when the opponent scores 24 or more. Now the offense and special teams need to do their parts and not give up any points. If they don't (pick-6, safety, return TD, etc), we won't lose another game.

I broke a bone in my foot and chipped the end of my fibula running, and was not able to run for 6 weeks.

If the Vikings win 2 of 3, they are 8-7-1, which would require any of the teams below them to go 9-7 to beat them (or win out). That seems really unlikely based on how they have played recently and their schedules. The best way for us to have a chance at knocking the Vikings out is if they go 1-1 before playing us and we beat them to finish 7-8-1, and one of CAR, PHI/WAS go 2-1 to finish 8-8 and face us in the 1st round. You ask how NO and LAR look vulnerable? Just watch the DET/LAR game and the NO games against TB and DAL. The Saints are 1-1 in their last two games against TB and DAL, and their total offense the last 3 games has been 298 yds, 176 yds, 312 yds with Brees not topping 201 passing yards in the last 3 games (w/ an INT in every game). They don't look like the same team and the numbers say the same. If you group games together, they are playing their worst football right now, which doesn't normally bode well for the remainder of the season/postseason. For the Rams, it's very similar. They had a bye in Week 12 and look like a totally different team the last two weeks against DET and us. They beat DET, but Goff looked like crap in both games. The Rams had their worst two games the last two weeks and are trending in the wrong direction. Now they play Philly, who needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt. After that game, it gets easier for them with a game in Arizona and then against SF. Both of those are Division games, so those are always tough.

With 3 weeks left, we are in a great spot. NO and LAR both look vulnerable. MIN looked horrible as well. 1. NO 11-2 (@CAR, vs PIT, vs CAR) 2. LAR 11-2 (vs PHI, @ARZ, vs SF) 3. CHI 9-4 (vs GB, @SF, @MIN) 4. DAL 8-5 (@IND, vs TB, @NYG) ------------ 5. SEA 8-5 (@SF, vs KC, vs ARZ) 6. MIN 6-6-1 (vs MIA, @DET, vs CHI) ------------ 7. CAR 6-7 (vs NO, vs ATL, @NO) 8. PHI 6-7 (@LAR, vs HOU, @WAS) 9. WAS 6-7 (@JAX, @TEN, vs PHI) 10. GB 5-7-1 (@CHI, @NYJ, vs DET) Scenarios: 1. 1-win, 10-6, Division winner, 4th seed, more than likely get SEA at home WC weekend. Dallas would have the tiebreaker over us if we both finish at 10-6. 2. 2-wins, 11-5, Division winner, 3rd seed, would play the 6th seed (MIN/CAR/PHI/WAS) at home, then 2nd seed (LAR) in LA 3. 3-wins, 12-4, Division winner, a chance at the 2nd seed if either NO or LAR lose 2 of 3. If we tie LAR or NO at 12-4, we would win the Conference tie breaker. 4. 0 wins, 9-7, Division winner if Minnesota loses at least one game. If MIN wins 3 and we lose 3, MIN wins Division, we slide to WC#2 (w/ at least one loss each from CAR, PHI, and WAS who could do no better than 8-8. WAS and PHI play each other, so there is one loss, and I can't see CAR beating NO twice. So even without another win, it looks like we would still make the playoffs. WC#2 would play in Dallas in this scenario. So right now we have a slim chance at a bye, will more than likely play at home WC. the #3 seed is the most probable. An interesting dilemma may present itself in Week 17. We might be locked into the 3 or 4 seed and could use Week 17 to give ourselves a bye. In doing so, we could allow MIN into the playoffs (if they win out).