adam

I don't think anyone would be complaining about a 1-pt loss on the road to GB if we didn't blow a 20 pt lead. Most were expecting us to lose this game and were literally one play away many times from winning. Fuller's drop, Sims not making it to the sticks (twice), blown coverages, missed tackles, Trubisky's accuracy all played a part. Fangio can't leave the DB's out there without overhead safety coverage on 3rd and 10 because the only thing we couldn't afford was a long TD (like Cobb's). We are clearly a work in progress and the first half has me optimistic. It just seemed like the team expended all their energy in the first half, especially the defense. The offense definitely got too cute, Leno lining up as a WR, ok. I was expecting more vertical plays, but it seemed like we were doing a bunch of things near the LOS, which eventually becomes easy to defend. I also don't know why we abandoned the run when it was averaging 5+ a carry. Nagy needs to relook what he did just before the FG. We had a 3rd and 2, and he called a pass play, which was incomplete and stopped the clock. You have two downs with 2 yards to go. Run it down their throats and burn some clock. If you get the first down, its game over. You can still kick a FG 4 plays later and would leave GB with at most 15 seconds on the clock to go the distance. So right now I am angrily optimistic. We let one slip away, just like last year vs Atlanta.

This is how the offense looks like when you don't play them enough in the preseason.

Man what a horrible loss. Nagy with some questionable play calls and Trubisky is nowhere near where he should be. Nagy got way too cute with all the exotic crap when Howard was looking good. I have no clue why Sims is the target on 3rd Downs. He first drops a first down that hits him in the chest, then runs towards a defender instead of to the sticks and comes up short. Then is short of the sticks on a quick pass. And Fuller and Amukamara? God the CB's looked bad. Fuller dropped a game-sealing INT (Cobb's TD came right after) and it seemed like they were getting beat left and right.

Here is how some of the young QB's linked to Trubisky did today: 1. Watson 17-34, 50%, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 62.9 QB Rating 2. Garoppolo 15-33, 45.5%, 261 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT, 45.1 QB Rating 3. Mahomes 15-27, 55.6%, 256 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 127.5 QB Rating Mahomes looks legit, the other two looked really out of sync and probably played better defenses.

I don't have stats to back it up but I would think that the first few weeks of the season have the most upsets. The Bears +7.5 seems like a pretty good bet. I don't see the Bears losing by more than a TD.

CBS Sports lol. "The Model" is only calling for 18 points from the Bears. It looks like they just took the averages from last year. If the projections are going to be wrong, they are going to be wrong on the Bears this year. It reminds me of Philly last year.

Stinger, exactly, and you can't even show guys like Cohen, Daniels, Shaheen, Bullard, Kwiatkowski, and Acho. All above average players and will contribute.

Yeah, great point. The entire roster from top to bottom is getting better.

Here are the depth guys: QB - Daniel (knows system, great QB mentor) RB - Cunningham (starting experience, can catch the ball out of the backfield) WR - White, Wims (will they even be needed?) TE - Sims, Brown, Braunecker (Sims is a former starter, both B's have decent hands) OL - Kush, Coward, Sowell (Kush and Sowell have both started) DL - Bullard, Nichols, Williams (Bullard has started before) LB - Kwiatkowski, Acho, Lynch, Fitts, Irving, Iggy (Kwiat, Acho, and Lynch all with experience) CB - Cooper, Callahan, Toliver (Cooper and Callahan have started before) S - Bush, DHC (both have experience) Would we like these guys to be better? Sure, but where are you going to upgrade and get better output as a sub? Sims, White, and Cooper probably bring you the lowest bang for your buck, but the other guys have decent value for what they are paid.

They brought Nick Williams (DL) back.

I am confused, Pace is to blame for Shaheen rolling his ankle? How is that a disappointing draft pick? Shaheen looked great in the preseason and his injury was unfortunate. Luckily we have quality depth at TE. If you can get 2-3 starters and 1-2 subs per draft, you are doing pretty good. 2015 (6 picks), 2 starters, 1 sub (Amos, Goldman, White), White was the key to this draft, and he never lived up to his billing. What kills me is Vic Beasley went one spot later, and Gurley went 3 later. I am most critical of this draft for Pace, but if they keep Amos and Goldman, and White at least contributes this year, then it won't be a completely wasted draft. Still subpar though. 2016 (9 picks), 3 starters, 4 subs, 7 players still on the roster - This was a great draft and almost makes up for how bad 2015 was. 2017 (5 picks), 2 starters, 2 subs, only Morgan not on team - only a couple of picks due to the Trubisky trade, but Jackson and Cohen were great picks in the 4th round. 2018 (7 picks), 1 starter, 6 subs, too early too assess, but if Smith, Daniels, and Miller all live up to their hype, this will be another great draft. Anything out of Iggy, Nichols, Fitts, or Wims would be gravy. At the end of the day, the one pick that matters is Trubisky. He has to play at a franchise player level starting next Sunday, or none of these other players matter.

Grasu cut, probably to clear a roster spot for Mack.

Remember he is suspended for Week 1 anyway.

So we are the only team that will be negatively impacted by the rule? Sure it could change the outcome of a game or two, but why does it have to be against us? We could win an extra one or two because of it.

Presser at 1pm

Friendly reminder that the TalkBears Keeper draft is today, 11am Central.

Looking back at last year, 6 of our losses were by a score or less (3 by a FG or less). With a little luck and some better officiating, we would probably have ended up at 7-9 with THAT team. To me, this team was probably already at 9-7 before the Mack deal, and he is easily worth 1 to 2 games. Odds to win Super Bowl went from 100-1 to 40-1 over night.

I would say 9-7 is the low end of the projection now. Looking at the schedule by quarter, I can see us going 2-2 (GB/SEA/ARZ/TB) followed by 3-1 (MIA/NE/NYJ/BUF), then 2-2 (DET/MIN/DET/NYG) followed by 2-2 (LAR/GB/SF/MIN). That's 9 wins right there without making a hard argument. If you break it down by Division's, we should be able to split the North at 3-3, go 3-1 against AFC East, split with NFC West (2-2), and split TB and NYG (1-1). If we can beat DET twice, then split GB and MIN, there is a 10-win season, and if we beat both NYG and TB, that's 11 wins, again without too much reaching. So 9-11 wins seems like it is the new window. 9 wins is probably borderline Wild Card, and 11 wins is the Division.

YEAR - AGE - CAP HIT - DEAD MONEY 2018 (27) - $13.8 MIL - $60 MIL 2019 (28) - $22.3 MIL - $46.2 MIL 2020 (29) - $24 MIL - $24.1 MIL 2021 (30) - $24 MIL - $13.6 MIL 2022 (31) - $24.5 MIL - $6.8 MIL 2023 (32) - $22.9 MIL - $0 2024 (33) - $23.2 MIL - $0 So the Bears are locked into Mack until at least 2022, Trubisky's first year on his second contract. The Bears could get out of Mack's contract for only $6.8 dead money after 2021 (if they needed to), which is not bad all things considered. So it ends up being $21.6 Million average for the first 5 years (2018-2022).

That Cooper and Grasu are still on the roster. Maybe Burton over Nall. Otherwise, about what everyone expected.

QB (2) - Trubisky, Daniel RB (4) - Howard, Cohen, Cunningham, Burton WR (6) - Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, White, Wims, Bellamy TE (5) - Burton, Shaheen, Sims, Brown, Braunecker OL (9) - Leno, Long, Whitehair, Daniels, Massie, Kush, Coward, Sowell, Grasu DL (5) - Hicks, Goldman, Robert-Harris, Bullard, Nichols ILB (4) - Trevathan, Kwiatowski, Smith, Iggy OLB (6) - Mack, Floyd, Lynch, Acho, Fitts, Irving CB (6) - Amukamara, Fuller, Callahan, Cooper, McManis, Toliver S (4) - Amos, Jackson, Bush, Houston-Carson K - Parkey P - O'Donnell LS - Scales Currently at 54 players with the Mack trade. Burton made it in lieu of Nall, Grasu still on the roster and so is Cooper (ugh). I figure Grasu gets traded or cut at some point. I don't know how the Bears can carry 54 unless Mack hasn't actually signed the deal yet.

Conditional 7th.

Pace keeps rolling.

and the Bears cut him, hopefully he makes it to the PS. I liked him better than Burton.

Assuming the Bears finish in the upper half of the league, and Raiders in bottom half, consider this scenario: Bears with 20th overall pick and Raiders 10th the next two years (to me this is worst case scenario...I see the Bears doing better and Raider doing worse) Bears give up: 2019 - 1st (850), 6th (13) 2020 - 1st (850), 3rd (170) Raiders give up: Khalil Mack = 5th Overall pick (1700) 2020 - 2nd (480), conditional 5th (28) If you consider Mack for 2x 1st's is even (in terms of draft value), the additional picks give the Bears a net positive of 397 w/o the conditional pick and 425 with it. 397 would net you Pick #51 in the 2nd round and 425 would net you #48. So either way the Bears got value equivalent to the pick we used on Anthony Miller back in the Mack trade.