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adam

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Everything posted by adam

  1. Because Smith has not played since the injury and it was the ACL and LCL, which is supposedly worse than the ACL/MCL. When healthy, definitely a top 3 talent but post injury/surgery? Who knows. It is bad enough that guys don't pan out when healthy; this guy has a tough road ahead. ILB's have to change directions a lot and quickly; can a repaired knee handle that type of stress?
  2. If they don't sign him, then they will tag him. No way he sniffs free agency.
  3. adam

    Malik Jackson

    Look at his home/road splits. It definitely looks like he is out of shape. Half as many tackles and 0 sacks at home (elevation).
  4. Going off BPA, it would be Hargreaves.
  5. I just can't see Pace taking Smith in the first round after White missed his rookie year.
  6. I looked at 10 different Mock Drafts to get the consensus top 10, or the likely projected top 10. Based on the 10 mocks I looked at, there were 6 players off the board in the top 10 of every draft: 1. Tunsil (#1 in all mocks) 2. Ramsey (5th was lowest slot) 3. Goff (2nd, 4th, or 7th) 4. Bosa (between 3 and 6) 5. Buckner (between 3 and 10) 6. Hargreaves (between 5 an 9) Jack was selected 9 times out of 10 in the top 10, so there is a 90% chance that he would be gone by our pick. That makes 7 players. Then you have Stanley who was selected in the top 10 8 times, as high as 6 and as low as 16, but only twice out of the top 10 and once to us at 11. The odds of him being there are low, 20%, so rule him out. That makes 8. Then you have Wentz. As high as #2 and as low as #22. In the top 10, 50% of the time. We will call him 9. The last player with at least half of the mocks in the top 10 was Spence with 6 times and a high of 9th and low of 29th. That is #10. So that leaves the following players with over an 80% chance of being there at #10: 11. Robinson, DT, Alabama (never in top 10, 11-12th 6 times) 12. Smith, LB, Notre Dame (top 10 x2) 13. Treadwell, WR Mississippi (top 10 x1) 14. Ragland, LB, Alabama (top 10 x2) 15. Elliott, RB, Ohio St (top 10 x1) 16. Lynch, QB, Memphis (top 10 x1) 17. Lawson, DE, Clemson (top 10 x1) 18. Dodd, DE, Clemson (top 10 x1) The rest, never in top 10 but several selections in the teens: 19. Rankins, DT, Louisville 20. Conklin, OT, Michigan St 21. Alexander, CB, Clemson 22. Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi 23. Butler, DT, LA Tech 24. Reed, DT, Alabama 25. Decker, OT, Ohio St * - used Kiper, NFL.com (multiple), CBS, Walter, Drafttek, Draftsite using Jason's draft, and my rankings, the following would be BPA: Hargreaves-6, Wentz-9, Spence-10
  7. adam

    Free Agency Plan

    AZ, what about someone like Patrick Robinson at CB? He is a former Saint (Pace connection) and had a very solid year in SF this past season. I think he would come cheaper than the top tier guys, and would give be a consistent Corner for us. In regards to WR/KR, what about Travis Benjamin from CLE? I know he has handled kick return duties before and seemed to have some big play potential in CLE. Something we have missed for quite some time.
  8. Yeah, if Forte gets $4mil and we sign Miller for a similar amount (who will likely have a fraction of the touches), I will be pissed as well.
  9. If we are trying to improve, but not get older by signing guys north of 30, these are the names I came up with of players who are 28 or younger with 500 or more snaps last year who look to be solid signings: DLINE Damon Harrison, 27, Jets Muhammad Wilkerson, 27, Jets Malik Jackson, 26, Broncos Ian Williams, 27, 49ers Jaye Howard, 27, Chiefs LB Danny Trevathan, 26, Broncos CB Trumaine Johnson, 26, Rams Janoris Jenkins, 27, Rams Patrick Robinson, 28, Chargers Prince Amukamara, 27, Giants Safety Rodney McLeod, 26, Rams George Iloka, 26, Bengals OLINE Ryan Schraeder, 28, Falcons Mitchell Schwartz, 27, Browns Jeff Allen, 26, Chiefs Cordy Glenn, 26, Bills Kelechi Osemele, 27, Ravens Joe Barksdale, 28, Chargers WR Rishard Matthews, 26, Dolphins Marvin Jones, 26, Bengals TE Ladarius Green, 26, Chargers I would be happy with a few of those names, especially on the OLINE and defense.
  10. McPhee is 27 and Houston is 28, so it is not like those are really old players. Also, you need a good mix of vets, rookies, and mid-level players. Right now we actually have a weird roster composition that just needs more impact players in general. Our top 10 player salaries is quite sad. Our top 10 are: 1. Cutler 2. McPhee 3. Houston 4. Bennett 5. Royal 6. Gould 7. White 8. Slauson 9. Young 10. Rolle I would have no issues with Chris Long and Laurinaitis in those numbers replacing some of the other underachievers. My thought on Long is that he might come cheaper due to his lack of production and injury concerns. I was thinking more along the lines of a 2-3 year incentive laden deal with some team flexibility in the numbers. Laurinaitis made $4.2 last year which would be less than Royal and $100k more than Gould this year. Something around $4mil seems to be reasonable for a couple of years based on his production.
  11. Long as a 3-4 DE? I think it could work. I was just thinking how motivated Kyle and him would be, playing on the same team.
  12. Re-unite Long brothers? Laurinaitis at LB, he is 29?
  13. Yeah, we can make a sticky post and get it going on the first and attempt to end it before the draft. It would be interesting to see how accurate it ends up (at least from a positional perspective).
  14. Jason, we need to do this again right before the draft and after some key free agency signings.
  15. Mundy is a FA. Rolle will be next and save us anotehr $2.7mil. Another name to consider is Wilson, who would save us $1.6mil. He never really emerged into anything. If they release Rolle and Wilson, the Bears would only have 13 players with an average annual cap hit over $1mil.
  16. adam

    Another Bear gone?

    He was talking about his Bears movie night which he posted right before that post.
  17. I can't see the Bears putting that many resources into LB (signing Trevathan and drafting two LB's in the top 3 picks). I also think we will draft OL in the first few picks, we can't ignore that position of need early in the draft.
  18. I don't think this is tied specifically to the Bears or Forte, it is the NFL as a whole. I took a look at the amount of 1,000 yard rushers per season over the past 10 years and I thought the numbers were shocking: 2015 - 7x 1,000 yard rushers with only 3 over 1,100 2014 -13x 1,000 yard rushers with 9 over 1,100 2013 -13x 1,000 yard rushers with 10 over 1,100 2012 -16x 1,000 yard rushers with 11 over 1,100 2011 -15x 1,000 yard rushers with 9 over 1,100 2010 -17x 1,000 yard rushers with 13 over 1,100 2009 -15x 1,000 yard rushers with 14 over 1,100 2008 -16x 1,000 yard rushers with 10 over 1,100 2007 -17x 1,000 yard rushers with 13 over 1,100 2006 -23x 1,000 yard rushers with 16 over 1,100 So in one season, we basically loss half of our 1,000 yard rushers and 2/3 of our elite rushers. What is crazy is the drop off from 2006 until now. In a 10 year span, we lost 16x 1,000 yard rushers and 13 of them that had over 1,100. If that doesn't show the devaluation of the RB position, I don't know what does. Now when you compare that to contracts, you can see it there as well. There were 8x RB's with an average annual contract over $7mil (Forte was #7), none between $5-$7mil, and all other RB's below $4.2mil per year. That is insane. There are 13x TE's that average more than $7mil a year.
  19. adam

    NFL Key Dates

    Feb. 16: First day for clubs to designate franchise or transition players. Feb. 23-29: NFL Scouting Combine, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis. March 1: Deadline (4 p.m. ET) for clubs to designate franchise or transition players. March 7-9: Clubs are permitted to contact and enter into contract negotiations with the certified agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents. However, a contract cannot be executed with a new club until 4 p.m. ET on March 9. March 9: 2016 league year begins. Free-agency period begins at 4 p.m. ET. March 20-23: Annual league meeting, Boca Raton, Florida. April 4: Clubs that hired a new head coach after the end of the 2015 regular season may begin offseason workout programs. April 18: Clubs with returning head coaches may begin offseason workout programs. April 22: Deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer sheets. Mid-to-late April: 2016 schedule release April 28-30: 2016 NFL Draft, Chicago. May 6-9 or May 13-16: Clubs may elect to hold their one three-day post-draft rookie minicamp from Friday through Sunday or Saturday through Monday. May 19-22: NFLPA Rookie Premiere. Invited rookies (typically, first- and/or second-round selections) must be permitted by their respective clubs to attend. Such players are unavailable for offseason workouts, OTA days and minicamps during this period. May 23-25: NFL spring league meeting, Charlotte, North Carolina. June 19-25: Rookie Symposium, Aurora, Ohio. July 15: Deadline (4 p.m. ET) for any club that designated a franchise player to sign such player to a multiyear contract or extension. After this date, the player may sign only a one-year contract with his prior club for the 2016 season, and such contract cannot be extended until after the club's last regular-season game.
  20. I would say the lack of an offer has to be tied to a couple of things: 1. They didn't want to disrespect him with a low-ball offer (less money or shorter length), knowing he would command more on the open market. Just because the Bears didn't make an offer doesn't mean Forte's agent didn't throw some numbers at the Bears. 2. Pace knows the Bears are still a year or two away, so there is no point bringing him back if he is not a long term solution. It also gives Forte a shot at a SB (like Peanut and Allen). 3. They project Forte to drop off further or faster than expected and are in the camp of cutting sling earlier than later. 4. Pace is eyeing Ezekiel Elliott in the draft or a FA RB that is younger. 5. Pace has no clue what he is doing and we will be a dumpster fire until he is fired.
  21. I am somewhat surprised at no offer. Pace clearly has a strict plan and is not letting emotions get in the way. Forte will be missed, a consummate pro on and off the field. Hopefully he gets a decent deal and we actually get a comp pick. Langford is now the man. Statement from Pace:
  22. Hurt Forte as in he will get less money or hurt Forte because the Bears will be reluctant to sign him because of production risk?
  23. I will budge, and the DB could be a S or a CB, I just felt the secondary needed to be addressed due to the age of Porter/Mundy. We could slide that need out of the top 4 picks, but not past the 5th round. So I would say ILB, DB(S or CB), OL, DL drafted within the first 5 rounds. So I want a D-Line pick, LB (preferably ILB), O-Line, and Secondary (S or CB) picked in the first 5 rounds.
  24. I can't see Pace picking a player (after White's injury/surgery) who just tore his ACL and LCL and has not seen football action since the injury. Smith was a better player pre-injury, but is now a huge question mark and is not something I see Pace doing. - Side note - Great idea Jason. I had no issues with the first draft, you hit all the major need areas in the first 4 picks, went for a QB with huge upside in the 5th, then went depth at OL and DB, with a Kicker upgrade in the 6th. All from big school programs too. I really can't complain. Without knowing our free agent signings, this would be about as good as we could ask for in a draft.
  25. Yeah, those are some big shoes to fill. They might as well go into full rebuild mode. They lost Suh last offseason and now Megatron this offseason. Seems like they are going in the wrong direction.
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