adam

Updated after OAK/SD game: 1. Tennessee Titans (3-11) - .489 (HOU, @IND) ~ 3-13 2. Cleveland Browns (3-11) - .535 (@KC, PIT) ~ 3-13 ----------------------------------------- 3. San Diego Chargers (4-11) - .522 (@DEN) ~ 4-12 4. Baltimore Ravens (4-10) - .518 (PIT, @CIN) ~ 4-12 5. Dallas Cowboys (4-10) - .540 (@BUF, WAS) ~ 4-12 6. San Francisco 49ers (4-10) - .549 (@DET, STL) ~ 4-12 ----------------------------------------- 7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) - .462 (@NO, @HOU) ~ 5-11 8. Miami Dolphins (5-9) - .471 (IND, NE) ~ 5-11 9. New Orleans Saints (5-9) - .513 (JAX, @ATL) ~ 6-10 10. Detroit Lions (5-9) - .531 (SF, @CHI) ~ 7-9 11. Chicago Bears (5-9) - .540 (@TB, DET) ~ 5-11 (9th) ----------------------------------------- 12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) - .478 (CHI, @CAR) ~ 7-9 13. New York Giants (6-8) - .496 (@MIN, PHI) ~ 6-10 14. Indianapolis Colts (6-8) - .504 (@MIA, TEN) ~ 8-8 15. Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) - .513 (WAS, NYG) ~ 7-9 16. Buffalo Bills (6-8) - .518 (DAL, NYJ) ~ 7-9 17. St. Louis Rams (6-8) - .531 (@SEA, @SF) ~ 7-9 18. Oakland Raiders (7-8) - .504 (@KC) ~ 7-9 8 of the 10 teams in the current top 10 were there after 8 games (MIA and NO joined after), we dropped from 9th to 11th, and HOU went from 10th to potential Division winner. Down to 3 scenarios based on projections: 2 losses = 9th (or 8th if MIA beats IND) 1 win = 12th (almost every scenario locks us in at 12) 2 wins = 17th (or 18th if IND loses to MIA) I really don't like the SoS tie-breaker, it is not our fault that we played good teams. We lose multiple draft positions based on SoS alone.

For the first time in a long time, the NFC North gets a decent break, playing two of the weaker divisions in the league. We draw the AFC South and NFC East, which are the two divisions with a potential 8-8 Division Winner. With this info, we need to be all in for next year, as I don't know when we will get this type of opportunity again. It also figures that we could have up to 3 NFC North teams in the playoffs next year. Here is what the schedule looks like today: Home: Detroit 7-9 Green Bay 10-4 Minnesota 9-5 Philadelphia 7-9 Washington 9-7 Jacksonville 5-11 Tennessee 3-13 San Francisco 5-11 Away Detroit 7-9 Green Bay 10-5 Minnesota 10-5 Dallas 4-12 NY Giants 6-10 Houston 9-7 Indianapolis 8-8 Tampa Bay 6-10 The projected SoS is .451, compared to the .540 we had this year. To put into perspective, a .451 would be the 3rd easiest SoS this year (only behind CAR and NYJ). So for once, I feel like the schedule is finally in our favor. The two toughest teams we will face next year (based on record) will be GB and MIN, which to me is a great draw. What do you think? I see 10 wins.

I looked at our stats from last year (brutal) and compared to what we have so far this year. The offense, overall has improved in most areas and only regressed slightly in Passing Yards per game (by 3), Rushing YPC, by 0.09, and Comp% by about 3% (not as many Forte dink and dunks). On the positive side, we cut down on turnovers by almost 0.5 per game (INTs cut in half), and our run game produced 22 more yards per game which increased TOP by over a minute. --------------- 2014 / 2015 Points/Game - 19.9 / 20.6 + Yards/Game - 327.1 / 346.1 + Passer Rating - 89.03 / 89.49 + Completion % - 65.57% / 62.79% - Passing Yds/G - 237.0 / 234.0 - Neg Pass Plays% - 8.32% / 7.39% + 3rd Down % - 38.97% / 41.67% + Rushing YPC - 3.96 / 3.87 - Rushing YPG - 90.1 / 112.1 + (Over a 20% increase in rushing yards per game) Turnovers - 26 / 18 + (Turnovers down almost 0.5 per game, INTs cut in half) Penalty Yds - 997 / 869 + Time of Poss - 30:13 / 31:22 + (Over a minute in TOP) The defensive performance was not as positive. Even though we improved in a couple of areas (Passing yards against down 50 yards), we regressed into the abyss in turnovers, which may be one of the biggest contributing factors to the overall performance of the defense. Only the Cowboys and Ravens (9) had less forced turnovers than our defense (11). The inability to not stop the run and get after the QB is still the Achilles heel of this defense. We need to be stout against the run, while also getting decent pressure, and forcing turnovers. None of which we do well right now. Points/Game - 27.6 / 25.1 + Yards/Game - 377.1 / 342.1 + DEF Passer Rating - 98.95 / 97.78 + Completion % - 65.82% / 62.84% + Passing Yds/G - 264.4 / 216.1 + (Almost a 50 yard drop in passing yards against per game) Neg Pass Plays% - 9.29% / 7.81% - 3rd Down % Against - 42.63% / 45.36% - Rushing YPC - 4.35 / 4.56 - Rushing YPG - 112.7 / 125.9 - DEF INTs - 14 / 7 - (Half as many INTs as last year) F-Fumbles - 15 / 4 - (Less than 1/3 for FFum from last year) Sacks - 39.0 / 30.0 - Passes Def - 55 / 43 - Other teams with 7 or less INTs: DAL, DET, NO, and BAL (CAR leads with 22) Other teams with 4 or less FFum: SF and DAL (CAR leads with 20 - Peanut anyone) With the holes in the Offensive Line, and the inability to stop the run and get pressure on defense, we need to upgrade the trenches early and often this offseason.

Merry Christmas!

Here is a list of most of the 3-4 DE's who will be UFA's after this season: Stephen Bowen, Jets (32) Red Bryant, Cardinals (32) Jared Crick, Texans (27) Vinny Curry, Eagles (28) Mike DeVito, Chiefs (32) Leger Douzable, Jets (30) Clifton Geathers, Steelers (29) Malik Jackson, Broncos (26) Jarvis Jenkins, Bears (28) Frank Kearse, Redskins (28) Ricardo Mathews, Chargers (29) Kendall Reyes, Chargers (27) Antonio Smith, Broncos (35) Damion Square (27) Cam Thomas, Steelers (30) Cedric Thornton, Eagles (28) Muhammad Wilkerson, Jets (27) Derek Wolfe, Broncos (26) I highlighted the two mentioned and Jenkins.

Even the numbers support the eye ball test. Timu looks a lot better than anything we have had inside most of the year. I still wonder about Mason Foster.....

I saw someone mention that it sometimes comes down to what their dominant hand is (similar to a skateboarder where the slide is more natural one way).

Bigger need really doesn't hit the problem, amount of need may be a better way to show it. With 2 above average acquisitions (FA or draft) and the OLine is much improved. You would be lucky to see the same on the entire defense. We probably need 5 upgrades on defense to get to the same level. So it is a tough balance. We really need to be aggressive in free agency to address some needs and then plug the rest in the draft. I feel like have to address 9 spots in the starting 22: OTx2, C, DEx2, ILBx2, CB, S.

Nightmare scenario, we win both and drop all the way to 18th due to SoS: Two wins with Week 17 projections: 1. TEN 3-13 (IND) .489 2. CLE 3-13 (PIT) .536 3. SD 4-12 (DEN) .516 4. BAL 4-12 (CIN) .518 5. SF 4-12 (STL) .547 6. DAL 4-12 (WAS) .543 -------------------------- 7. JAX 5-11 (HOU) .466 -------------------------- 8. TB 6-10 (CAR) .482 (TB rises from 12 to 10) 9. NO 6-10 (ATL) .511 10. MIA 6-10 (NE) .473 11. PHI 6-10 (NYG) .514 12. DET 6-10 (CHI) .534 (DET rises from 18 to 12) -------------------------- 13. NYG 7-9 (PHI) .498 14. IND 7-9 (TEN) .507 15. OAK 7-9 (KC) .507 16. BUF 7-9 (NYJ) .518 17. STL 7-9 (SF) .529 18. CHI 7-9 (DET) .536 (we drop from 8 to 18) TLDR, we will pick between the 7-8th pick if we lose 2; we are basically locked in at #12 if we split our last two games, and drop all the way to 18th if we win our last two. Additionally, ATL is the last factor, if they lose two and we win two, we can actually drop to 19th. One win could potentially separate pick #8-#19 (crazy). Two losses = 7-8th pick Split = 12th pick Two wins = 18-19th pick

Both one win game scenarios (out of our last two), we finish 12th both times. Beat TB/Lose DET with Week 17 projections: 1. TEN 3-13 (IND) .489 2. CLE 3-13 (PIT) .536 3. SD 4-12 (DEN) .516 4. BAL 4-12 (CIN) .518 5. SF 4-12 (STL) .547 6. DAL 4-12 (WAS) .543 -------------------------- 7. JAX 5-11 (HOU) .466 -------------------------- 8. NO 6-10 (ATL) .511 9. MIA 6-10 (NE) .473 10. TB 6-10 (CAR) .482 (TB rises from 12 to 10) 11. PHI 6-10 (NYG) .514 12. CHI 6-10 (DET) .536 (we drop from 8 to 12) -------------------------- 13. NYG 7-9 (PHI) .498 14. IND 7-9 (TEN) .507 15. OAK 7-9 (KC) .507 16. BUF 7-9 (NYJ) .518 17. STL 7-9 (SF) .529 18. DET 7-9 (CHI) .534 Beat DET/Lose TB with Week 17 projections: 1. TEN 3-13 (IND) .489 2. CLE 3-13 (PIT) .536 3. SD 4-12 (DEN) .516 4. BAL 4-12 (CIN) .518 5. SF 4-12 (STL) .547 6. DAL 4-12 (WAS) .543 -------------------------- 7. JAX 5-11 (HOU) .466 -------------------------- 8. NO 6-10 (ATL) .511 9. MIA 6-10 (NE) .473 10. PHI 6-10 (NYG) .514 11. DET 6-10 (CHI) .534 (DET rises from 18 to 11) 12. CHI 6-10 (DET) .536 (we drop from 8 to 12) -------------------------- 13. TB 7-9 (CAR) .482 14. NYG 7-9 (PHI) .498 15. IND 7-9 (TEN) .507 16. OAK 7-9 (KC) .507 17. BUF 7-9 (NYJ) .518 18. STL 7-9 (SF) .529

No worries, I took your projections and added multiple scenarios for our last 2 games and all the Week 17 games (based on favorites), I will show in multiple posts: Two losses with Week 17 projections: 1. TEN 3-13 (IND) .489 2. CLE 3-13 (PIT) .536 3. SD 4-12 (DEN) .516 4. BAL 4-12 (CIN) .518 5. SF 4-12 (STL) .547 6. DAL 4-12 (WAS) .543 -------------------------- 7. JAX 5-11 (HOU) .466 8. CHI 5-11 (DET) .536 (w/ 2 losses it looks like we will do no better than 8th - possibly 7th if Jags win a game) -------------------------- 9. NO 6-10 (ATL) .511 10. MIA 6-10 (NE) .473 11. PHI 6-10 (NYG) .514 -------------------------- 12. TB 7-9 (CAR) .482 13. NYG 7-9 (PHI) .498 14. IND 7-9 (TEN) .507 15. OAK 7-9 (KC) .507 16. BUF 7-9 (NYJ) .518 17. STL 7-9 (SF) .529 18. DET 7-9 (CHI) .534

I am confused, 49ers lose, then disappear? Cowboys lose then go to 5-10? So you have to add the 4-11 49ers back in, and put us behind the Jags due to SoS, so we would be 8th based on those scenarios (passing DET and MIA).

After Week 15: Jay Cutler (just passed 31k Passing yards and 200 TDs) - 2,664 completions (35th, 2 from 34th and Kurt Warner, will pass Warner, Steve Young and Brad Johnson in next game) - 31,007 yards (41st, 297 from 40th and Steve McNair) - 201 TD (T-38th, 2 from 37th and Jim Everett) - 1,171 Rushing Yards (4th for Bears QBs All-time, 114 from Jim McMahon) - 14 straight games with 0-1 INTs (dating back to 2014) Matt Forte - 8,472 rushing yards (40th, 2 from 39th and Willis McGahee, 6th among active RBs) - 12,531 yds from scrimmage (52nd, 83 from 51st and Thomas Jones) - 4,059 receiving yards (2nd among Active RBs, 21 yards from 1st and Sproles) - 481 receptions (1st among Active RBs) Robbie Gould - 1,185 Points (40th, 23 pts from 39th and Kevin Butler) - 270 FG Made (35th, 2 from 34th and Pete Stoyanovich) - 375 XP Made (47th, 2 from 46th and Mike Vanderjagt) Alshon Jeffery (Bears All-time Receiving Numbers): - 252 receptions (10th, 8 from 9th and Matt Suhey) - 3,728 yards (8th, 167 from 7th and Marty Booker) - 24 TD (11th, 1 from 10th and Bill McColl/Marty Booker) Shea McClellin (Bears All-Time Defense) - 98 Tackles (57th, 5 from 56th and Jon Bostic - he should pass Jon Bostic this season) - 7.5 Sacks (42nd, 0.5 from T-40th and Bryan Cox/Jay Ratliff) Willie Young - 16.5 Sacks (T-21st, 2 from 20th and Al Harris) Kyle Fuller - 6 INT (T-75th, 1 from T-67th and Mike Singletary/Danieal Manning)

I think you may see that in the next game, we were still mathematically alive until that loss.

We are 10th right now because NO is still 5-8. If NO wins, we are 10th by record, if DET wins, it will come down to SoS which we will have a slightly higher one pushing us to 11th. Based on projections, we will end up no better than the 5th pick (due to SoS) and no worse than 11th at this point (and that is going 1-1 in our last 2). It looks like a 2-0 finish could drop us all the way to 16th at absolute worst. So 5th to 16th with 11th as the most likely. So right now: 1. Tennessee Titans (3-11) - .489 2. Cleveland Browns (3-11) - .534 ----------------------------------------- 3. San Diego Chargers (4-10) - .516 4. Baltimore Ravens (4-10) - .516 5. San Francisco 49ers (4-10) - .543 6. Dallas Cowboys (4-10) - .548 ----------------------------------------- 7. Detroit Lions (4-9) - .534 8. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) - .466 9. Miami Dolphins (5-9) - .475 10. Chicago Bears (5-9) - .534 11. New Orleans Saints (5-8) - .511 Week 16 games of interest: 1. Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-8) (If NO wins on MNF, then we want a JAX win, if NO loses on MNF, then we want a NO win). Either way, if we lose to TB, one of these teams will drop past us in the draft order. 2. 49ers (4-10) @ Lions (4-9) (Similar to JAX/NO game, we want the winner of MNF losing this game, but either way this game is going to help us, 49ers have a better SoS than us, so a tied record gives us the better pick). 3. Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9) (A MIA win helps us based on overall record) 4. Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8) (A DAL win helps us, they have a better SoS than us, so a tie in record gives us a better pick) 5. Chargers (4-10) @ Raiders (6-8) (A SD win helps us but they would still have tie breaker with SoS) 6. Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10) (A BAL win helps us) 7. Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8) (Obviously want a CHI loss)

At least the refs have stayed consistent and call ticky tack calls against us but completely miss the blatant holds on Minnesota.

I would move Long back sooner than later. Hopefully his poor performance at OT doesn't impact his confidence at Guard.

Right on cue, the offense turns it over. Long looks horrible at OT.

This team shows a glimmer of hope, then crushes your soul. No way the Vikings should be able to march down the field like that with AP on the sideline.

Crazy what two weeks can do. After the GB game, this was a potential flex game that was going to move into primetime with potential playoffs implications (assuming we came in at 7-6 and MIN at 8-5). Well MIN is 8-5....... It is amazing that we could've been one game up on every other potential playoff team other than MIN and SEA (non-Division leaders) coming into this game at 7-6. Now we are 5-8 and playing for draft position. With very little to play for, it is hard for me to see a close game. MIN 27 - CHI 13

I just saw a stat that Cutler has yet to have a multi-INT game this season and has now gone 13 games with 0-1 INTs (dating back to the last game in 2014), the longest stretch of his career. His longest stretch previously was 7 in Denver (2008), and 6 in Chicago (2012).

So you don't want Alshon?

Re-watching some of the recent games, ILB seems to be our absolute biggest weakness. At least the DLine was occupying a blocker, our ILB's played the Cover-0 most of the year (as in covering no one). RB and TE's have gashed us up the middle and Gabbert's long run was a low light. However, I don't think you have to draft in order of need level. You have to take the best available in a need area, so we could essentially go OL, DL, LB, CB, or S in the first round and it will fill a need.

From NFL.com: I would be interested in the guys I bolded (assuming some of the other top guys are franchised). Obviously can't all of them, but one or two (besides Alshon) would be awesome.

On Long, it can't be good, I saw a stat the other week that showed QB Pressures allowed, and Long was in the top 5.