Everything posted by adam
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New expectations
I would say 9-7 is the low end of the projection now. Looking at the schedule by quarter, I can see us going 2-2 (GB/SEA/ARZ/TB) followed by 3-1 (MIA/NE/NYJ/BUF), then 2-2 (DET/MIN/DET/NYG) followed by 2-2 (LAR/GB/SF/MIN). That's 9 wins right there without making a hard argument. If you break it down by Division's, we should be able to split the North at 3-3, go 3-1 against AFC East, split with NFC West (2-2), and split TB and NYG (1-1). If we can beat DET twice, then split GB and MIN, there is a 10-win season, and if we beat both NYG and TB, that's 11 wins, again without too much reaching. So 9-11 wins seems like it is the new window. 9 wins is probably borderline Wild Card, and 11 wins is the Division.
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Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
YEAR - AGE - CAP HIT - DEAD MONEY 2018 (27) - $13.8 MIL - $60 MIL 2019 (28) - $22.3 MIL - $46.2 MIL 2020 (29) - $24 MIL - $24.1 MIL 2021 (30) - $24 MIL - $13.6 MIL 2022 (31) - $24.5 MIL - $6.8 MIL 2023 (32) - $22.9 MIL - $0 2024 (33) - $23.2 MIL - $0 So the Bears are locked into Mack until at least 2022, Trubisky's first year on his second contract. The Bears could get out of Mack's contract for only $6.8 dead money after 2021 (if they needed to), which is not bad all things considered. So it ends up being $21.6 Million average for the first 5 years (2018-2022).
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We said goodbye to ...
That Cooper and Grasu are still on the roster. Maybe Burton over Nall. Otherwise, about what everyone expected.
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Projecting the 53-man Roster
QB (2) - Trubisky, Daniel RB (4) - Howard, Cohen, Cunningham, Burton WR (6) - Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, White, Wims, Bellamy TE (5) - Burton, Shaheen, Sims, Brown, Braunecker OL (9) - Leno, Long, Whitehair, Daniels, Massie, Kush, Coward, Sowell, Grasu DL (5) - Hicks, Goldman, Robert-Harris, Bullard, Nichols ILB (4) - Trevathan, Kwiatowski, Smith, Iggy OLB (6) - Mack, Floyd, Lynch, Acho, Fitts, Irving CB (6) - Amukamara, Fuller, Callahan, Cooper, McManis, Toliver S (4) - Amos, Jackson, Bush, Houston-Carson K - Parkey P - O'Donnell LS - Scales Currently at 54 players with the Mack trade. Burton made it in lieu of Nall, Grasu still on the roster and so is Cooper (ugh). I figure Grasu gets traded or cut at some point. I don't know how the Bears can carry 54 unless Mack hasn't actually signed the deal yet.
- Deiondre Hall traded to Eagles
- Deiondre Hall traded to Eagles
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Ryan Nall next Cohen?
and the Bears cut him, hopefully he makes it to the PS. I liked him better than Burton.
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Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
Assuming the Bears finish in the upper half of the league, and Raiders in bottom half, consider this scenario: Bears with 20th overall pick and Raiders 10th the next two years (to me this is worst case scenario...I see the Bears doing better and Raider doing worse) Bears give up: 2019 - 1st (850), 6th (13) 2020 - 1st (850), 3rd (170) Raiders give up: Khalil Mack = 5th Overall pick (1700) 2020 - 2nd (480), conditional 5th (28) If you consider Mack for 2x 1st's is even (in terms of draft value), the additional picks give the Bears a net positive of 397 w/o the conditional pick and 425 with it. 397 would net you Pick #51 in the 2nd round and 425 would net you #48. So either way the Bears got value equivalent to the pick we used on Anthony Miller back in the Mack trade.
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
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Revised Season Predictions
Bears 16-0, Super Bowl Champs! that is all
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Week 1 - Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Official Game Thread
I am sure he will play, maybe just on passing downs, but I would say his position and role (rushing the passer) has one of the easier transitions compared to other positions.
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Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
All things considered, it is hard to see this as anything but a huge win for the Bears. Mack is literally one of the best players in the league, top 5 on defense for sure. He is going to make the entire defense better, which will take pressure off the offense. I don't know of any pick around #20 or even two of them that would have the same impact.
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Week 1 - Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Official Game Thread
If the Packers were game planning already (which I assume they were) will have to make some huge adjustments with the acquisition of Mack. I hope he can get into town quick and get up to speed on the defense in such a short time. He may be limited in Week 1, but either way, just another thing for GB to worry about.
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
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Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
Mack is a top 4 Defensive Player, in the group with Watt, Donald, and Miller. He is 27, and we have 4 more years with Trubisky on his rookie deal. This is perfect timing. I don't see Mack as overrated, he was on a team that wasn't very good and he was still dominant. Just think of him in a Fangio defense, I can't imagine he won't be even better. If people are worried about losing 2x First Rounders, here is Pick #20 from the last 5 years: Frank Ragnow Garrett Bolles Darron Lee Nelson Agholor Brandin Cooks Any objections to giving up two of those guys for Mack?
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
- Khalil Mack traded to Bears for 2x 1st Round Picks
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Projecting the 53-man Roster
I wish Cam all the best, but he was playing in the final preseason game against players that will likely not be on an NFL roster in a day or two. Just the fact that the Saints played him in this game says a lot about how they feel about him. If he was still on our roster, he would be a potential roster cut anyway behind Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, White, and even Wims. I like our WR Corps. Wims is legit and should form a formidable 1-2 punch with Miller for years to come. Just think about having Trubisky-Howard-Cohen-Shaheen-Miller-Wims for the next 8-10. Robinson is only 25 and Burton is 26, so I could see this current group staying intact for at least the next 4-5 years. Gabriel is the oldest skill position player at 27. Nichols was impressing me with his inside push. Coward will replace Massie before the bye. His growth at the position shows up every time I see him. I hope Nall makes it, he provides the most unique skill set amongst the remaining backs and gives a different look than Howard, Cohen, or Cunningham. He is big, and has shown he has an extra gear.
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Projecting the 53-man Roster
Yeah, there is a chance that we use 2-3 spots to acquire other players as well, but for the most part, our roster seems pretty locked in.