adam

With the 86th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select: Mario Edwards Jr, DE, Florida State With the 87th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select: Ibraheim Campbell, SS, Northwestern The Detroit Lions (scs787) are now on the clock.....

With the 85th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals select: Lorenzo Mauldin, OLB, Louisville The Arizona Cardinals are on the clock...

Yeah, that is why you would have to do a Big Board for the team first to take those needs into account. It is like planning in a vacuum (internal Big Board with team considerations only) with external influences (other teams drafting same pool of players) impacting those decisions.

Our Draft > McShay/Kiper Draft 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Stinger226) - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU 2. Tennessee Titans (jason) - Leonard Williams, DE, USC > Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (ASHKUM BEAR) - Dante Fowler, Jr, OLB, Florida > Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama 4. Oakland Raiders (scs787) - Kevin White, WR, WVU > Leonard Williams, DE, USC 5. Washington Redskins (Adam) - Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson > Dante Fowler, Jr, OLB, Florida 6. New York Jets (killakrzydav) - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon > Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa 7. Chicago Bears (jason) - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama > Kevin White, WR, WVU 8. Atlanta Falcons (Stinger226) - Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska > Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky 9. New York Giants (Adam) - Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa > Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia 10. St. Louis Rams (bradjock) - Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford > Devante Parker WR, Louisville 11. Minnesota Vikings (scs787) - Devante Parker WR, Louisville > Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State 12. Cleveland Browns (Adam) - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington 13. New Orleans Saints (Stinger226) - Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky > Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska 14. Miami Dolphins (killakrzydav) - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin > Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF 15. San Francisco 49ers (jason) - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas > Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon 16. Houston Texans (scs787) - Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State > Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami (Fla.) 17. San Diego Chargers (ASHKUM BEAR) - Shane Ray, DE, Missouri > La'el Collins, OT, LSU 18. Kansas City Chiefs (ASHKUM BEAR) - Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Fla.) > Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State 19. Cleveland Browns (Adam) - La'el Collins, OT, LSU > Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford 20. Philadelphia Eagles (Stinger226) - Landon Collins, SS, Alabama > Marcus Peters, CB, Washington 21. Cincinnati Bengals (Mongo3451) - Jalen Collins, CB, LSU > Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Fla.) 22. Pittsburgh Steelers (Adam) - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington > Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut 23. Detroit Lions (scs787) - T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh > Malcom Brown, DT, Texas 24. Arizona Cardinals (Adam) - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia > Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin 25. Carolina Panthers (Stinger226) - D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida 26. Baltimore Ravens (Adam) - Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State > Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest 27. Dallas Cowboys (ASHKUM BEAR) - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest > Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State 28. Denver Broncos (Stinger226) - Cameron Erving, C, Florida State 29. Indianapolis Colts (Mongo3451) - Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF > Shane Ray, DE, Missouri 30. Green Bay Packers (scs787) - Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA > Jalen Collins, CB, LSU 31. New Orleans Saints (Stinger226) - Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma > Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State 32. New England Patriots (Boston Boxer) - Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State > Eric Rowe, CB, Utah We had 4 picks match and 9 positional matches (which is pretty high). 19 other picks were different player/position. Stinger had only one pick not match (McShay is that you?). http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDUCy_sXIAA4m39.png

I know it is not an exact science, but I start out with a big board; so for simplicity's sake I used CBS Sports (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings) since they update their board pretty regularly. Then I use the Draft Value chart (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php) to give each player a value that corresponds with their Big Board ranking. Then every draft position also gets the current value off the chart (ie. Bears #7=1500). So if the Bears select Kevin White, using this method, they are drafting "at value", and if they select Winston, Mariota, Williams, Fowler, Cooper, or Beasley, they will be gaining value from the pick (according to CBS Big Board). I then apply this method to each round to come up with an overall draft score (using the cumulative + and - for each slot and pick), and that value can be put back into the trade value chart to see how much value or lack of value you had in the draft. Using this rudimentary method, Lemon's mock lost us the equivalent of a late 3rd round pick (basically meaning several players were reaches and could've been selected later by trade backs in the total value of a late 3rd rounder). Any system will have flaws and the CBS Big Board is not necessarily tuned for the Bears, so it is more of a coarse assessment, but somewhat accurate. It should at least be able to determine if you have a great draft (positive score), good draft (right around zero), or bad draft (negative score). In a way I was trying to reverse engineer what the team will do and then run multiple simulations to determine maximum value based on each scenario (ie. going WR first, etc).

Rodgers was projected as a top 10 pick (http://walterfootball.com/draft2005.php), so him falling to #24 made it a no brainer as he would've been so far and away the best player on the board regardless of need. Also, Favre was 35 when they drafted Rodgers, and Doug Peterson was the backup, so GB actually had a need at QB. That was actually the perfect time to pull the trigger on a replacement. Rodgers immediately became the backup. I could see teams like NO (Brees), NE (Brady), and DEN (Manning) doing the same thing within the next year or two.

Trying to place a value on each pick, using the CBS Sports Big Board, that draft would be less than the value of the slots. It would be the equivalent to losing a late 3rd round pick. The only pick not considered a reach (according to CBS) was Sammie Coates. It is also illegal on the interwebs to have a "final" mock draft this far out.

They select Gurley and he tears and ACL walking to the podium, all hell breaks loose.

Me too, but now I have seen a couple of mocks with Gurley or Gordon at #7. That was a surprise to me.

The draft is truly a chess match against 31 other opponents, and we have the 7th move. I see the draft strategy more as a value draft than BPA or need-based. The team's big board will determine the value of each player, and the slot we draft will determine which one of those players is BPA at the time. What the team will have to figure out as the draft is occurring is which order of players will maximize the value of the draft for us. Using the draft trade value chart, they can apply a value to each player on their big board, and then add up those values to see if they exceed our draft slot values. Using that technique, you can actually compare mock drafts to determine the better draft. Also, I have to assume the big board is already constructed with some type of need built in (so no board is truly unfiltered BPA). They have to go down each player one by one and say I would take this guy over this guy, and so on and so forth. After the first pick you have to weigh the previous picks into your decisions (so BPA is technically gone at this point). Otherwise you have the potential of drafting 7 LBs. So if you take Shelton for example, now all other DT's, even though they are higher on your big board more than likely won't be selected unless the value of that player is so much higher than the slot you are picking. Just for fun, I will "score" some of the recent mocks on this board.

I never considered Gordon or Gurley at #7, and don't think I would like it with all the other holes. However, I can see the reasoning: Forte is nearing the end of his career, has had a lot of touches over the last few years, has a decent cap hit, and really wasn't overly explosive last year. Considering all of that, it is still hard for me to see RB before the 4th with us having Forte, Carey, and Rodgers on the roster. Unless Forte was traded for a pick. Also, Fox has always seemed like an RB by committee type guy.

Over 24 hours since last pick..... With the 82nd pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select: Rob Havenstein, OT, Wisconsin The San Diego Chargers (ASHKUM BEAR) are now on the clock......

The Bears should pay to have Jenn Sterger as the sideline reporter, that would be epic.

To me the schedule starts out brutal. We get a Week 7 Bye, which is a little early for me but better than Week 6. We face 5 winning teams in the first 6 games before the bye, so even 3-3 would be a huge success. The middle of the schedule is a little milder with 3 games vs winning teams and 2 against sub .500 teams. Then we finish the season with 3 out of 5 at home and only 1 game against a winning team (Week 17 at home, vs DET). We could really make a playoff push even if we went into those last 5 games at 5-6 or 6-5. Only 2 primetime games this year. Bears Regular Season Schedule (All times Eastern) Week 1: Sunday, Sep. 13, Green Bay, 1:00 PM (Screw GB) Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 20, Arizona, 1:00 PM (Acho sacks QB TBD) Week 3: Sunday, Sep. 27, at Seattle, 4:25 PM (the ex-Kellen Davis Bowl) Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 4, Oakland, 1:00 PM (Houston returns to pre-2014 form against his old mates) Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 11, at Kansas City, 1:00 PM (Gafford long snaps us to victory) Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 18, at Detroit, 1:00 PM (Suh-less Lions are now kittens) Week 7: BYE Week 8: Sunday, Nov. 1, Minnesota, 1:00 PM (we take a Ducasse on the Vikes) Week 9: Monday, Nov. 9, at San Diego, 8:30 PM (Eddie Royal Bowl 1.0) Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 15, at St. Louis, 1:00 PM (Long vs Long, our Long wins) Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 22, Denver, 1:00 PM (Fox/Gase/Montgomery Reunion) Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 26, at Green Bay, 8:30 PM (Punch Favre in the nuts on Turkey Day, pic provided by Jenn Sterger) Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 6, San Francisco, 1:00 PM (Fangio Reunion - Tomasula already fired by now, McDonald assaults Kaepernick legally) Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 13, Washington, 1:00 PM (Jenkins sacks RGIII if he is not already injured) Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 20, at Minnesota, 1:00 PM (we lay a 2nd Ducasse on the Vikes) Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 27, at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM (Lovie Bowl 2.0, Mason Foster sacks everyone) Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 3, Detroit, 1:00 PM (No Bush for Detroit)

With the 81st pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select: Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor Buffalo has a couple of options here but were shocked to see Petty fall all the way to #81. Some mock drafts had Petty going to the Bills in the 2nd and almost all had him off the board at this point. The Houston Texans (scs787) are now on the clock...

He had the 17th and 27th best QBR in the nation the last two years (he played).

With the 77th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select: Paul Dawson, LB, TCU The New Orleans Saints (Stinger226) are now on the clock...

With the 74th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select Danielle Hunter, DE, LSU The New Orleans Saints (Stinger226) are now on the clock...

24+ hours since last pick, autopicked. With the 72nd pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select: Hau'oli Kikaha, OLB, Washington The Atlanta Falcons (Stinger226) are now on the clock...

I wouldn't consider any of the QB's in this year's draft as "Going Big". They all have a lot of question marks, and we can't afford to make a mistake on our first round pick this year. You go BPA, and if either fell to us, I still don't think either would be BPA. Look at the last 10 years of QB's drafted in the top 10: Alex Smith Vince Young Matt Leinart Jamarcus Russell Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Mark Sanchez Sam Bradford Cam Newton Jake Locker Blaine Gabbert Andrew Luck Robert Griffin Ryan Tannehill Blake Bortles Way more mistakes in there than hits. I will pass on Mariota and Winston.

I actually thought this was the perfect spot for a Safety with Prewitt, Campbell, Randall, and Tartt all there. Dawson, Mauldin, and Kikaha would be options too. Regardless, this bodes well for the Bears because it looks like we have will have a bunch of options at #71.

With the 69th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Washington Redskins select - Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan With the 70th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select - T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama The Chicago Bears (jason) are now on the clock...

I don't think either QB will get past #6, but even so, I really don't want either of them. We just can't afford to use a 1st round pick on a QB. I would rather have Petty and allow him to get a year behind Cutler.

Over 24 hours since last pick, to keep this thing moving, we will go with: With the 63rd pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select: Ali Marpet, OG, Hobart With the loss of Unger and Carpenter, the need to protect Wilson, and open holes for Beastmode, they have to go O-Line. Marpet has a ton of upside. The New England Patriots (Boston Boxer) are now on the clock to complete the 2nd round.......

If we stay at #7, I think WR (Cooper, White), OLB (Fowler, Beasley), OL (Scherff), CB (Waynes), DT (Shelton) and possibly S (Collins) are all in play.