adam

Fwiw, DraftBreakdown.com and First Round Grade have Dupree as the 4th best player and #1 Edge Rusher in the draft: http://www.talkbears.com/forums/index.php?...t=0#entry147601

These guys have published a free Draft guide for their Top 100 here: http://firstroundgrade.com/2015/04/26/2015...-now-available/ Really cool actually and some of the most detailed analysis you will find on the interwebs. I was surprised to see some of their player grades, and if their grading is any indication, we will definitely have some draft surprises. Here is their top 21 (which were the only players that received a 1st round grade): RANK NAME POS SCHOOL GRADE 1 Leonard Williams DT USC 8.8 2 Kevin White WR West Virginia 8.8 3 Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin 8.7 4 Alvin “Bud” Dupree EDGE Kentucky 8.5 5 Owamagbe Odighizuwa EDGE UCLA 8.5 6 Duke Johnson RB Miami 8.5 7 Marcus Mariota QB Oregon 8.4 8 Brandon Scherff OT Iowa 8.3 9 Andrus Peat OT Stanford 8.2 10 Todd Gurley RB Georgia 8.2 11 Landon Collins S Alabama 8.2 12 Amari Cooper WR Alabama 8.1 13 Jameis Winston QB Florida St. 8.1 14 La’El Collins OT LSU 8.0 15 Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest 8.0 16 Danny Shelton DT Washington 8.0 17 Devante Parker WR Louisville 8.0 18 Eric Kendricks LB UCLA 8.0 19 Malcom Brown DT Texas 8.0 20 Cameron Erving C Florida St. 8.0 21 Jake Fisher OT Oregon 8.0 10.0 The “perfect” player. Absolute lock to be a HOFer. (Player with perfect 10 will always be #1 overall pick) 9.5 Lock to immediately become one of the elite players at his position. No flaws. (#1 overall pick) 9.0 Immediate starter. Will become one of the best players at his position in his rookie season. (Top-10 selection) 8.5 Immediate starter. Will become one of the best players on his team during his rookie season. (Top-20 selection) 8.0 Starter during rookie season. Will become one of the best players on his side of the ball on his team during his rookie season. (1st round pick)

I would say he is comparable to Clinton-Dix who went 21st.

For us, probably not QB, TE, or RB this year.

There are probably only a handful of teams legitimately gunning for a Super Bowl next year and we are not one of them, so getting an immediate contributor is not as big of a deal as compared to other teams one or two players away. As long as we draft a 10 yr starter with pro bowl potential, I will be happy. Easier said than done obviously.

14 picks left, great job guys. We will end this after the Bears 4th round pick. Mongo is on the clock.

McShay hates Beasley, so that is why he fell. Based on pre-draft grades Perriman and DGB could easily go late in the first. Collins out of the first would be shocking and I would be willing to move up a couple of slots in the 2nd to get him (for a 5th?). That would be 2x 1st round graded players for a 1st, 2nd, and a 5th essentially. Both would immediately become starters, fill huge needs, and are coming from a winning program that plays at a high level.

At #7, I don't want anyone not from this group: (Mariota, Winston, Williams, Cooper, White, Beasley, Fowler). If everything goes as planned at least one should be there. If Winston or Mariota fall, my first option would be trade back and get picks, but if nothing of value comes up, you have to draft one of them there. Let them sit behind Cutler for a year or two as we restock our team.

With the 90th pick in the 2015 draft, the Baltimore Ravens select: Javorius Allen, RB, Southern California The Dallas Cowboys (ASHKUM BEAR) are on the clock.

With the 88th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska The Carolina Panthers (Stinger226) are now on the clock....

Isn't it nice not to have to say "fits the Tucker scheme"?

Yeah, maybe Tyrus Thompson or Max Garcia there instead?

For this one: 1(7)-LEONARD WILLIAMS, DT, +700 2(39)-DORIAL GREEN-BECKHAM, WR, +80 3(71)-HRONISS GRASU, C, +65 4(106)-ROB HAVENSTEIN, T, -18 5(142)-JACOBY GLEN, CB, -11.2 6(182)-JAKE RYAN, ILB, -3.2 TOTAL: +812.6 (equivalent to gaining a 1st round pick #21) This would be an insane draft. DL Starter for next decade with Pro Bowl potential, WR threat to compliment AJ, two starters on OLine for next decade, a decent CB and one of my favorite players in the draft at ILB.

For this one: 1(20)- MALCOLM BROWN, DT, -70 2(39)- DEVIN SMITH, WR, Ohio State, -80 2(52)- LAKEN TOMLINSON, OG, Duke, +40 3(71)-DAVID COBB, RB, Minnesota, -155 4(106)-KURTIS DRUMMOND, FS, Mich. St., -46.5 5(142)-ZA'DARIUS SMITH, OLB, Kentucky, +57 6(182)-CODY FAJARDO, QB, Nevada, -18.6 TOTAL: -273.1 (equivalent to losing a late 2nd rounder #64) Even after gaining picks, most of the selections are reaches (especially Cobb in the 3rd).

This is how I scored it based on my value based scoring system: 1(7)-LEONARD WILLIAMS, DT, +700 2(39)-BENARDRICK MCKINNEY, ILB, -120 3(71)-DERRON SMITH, S, -147 4(106)-ROB HAVENSTEIN, T, -18 5(142)-IFO EXPRE-OLOMU, CB, +69 6(182)-SEAN MANNION, QB, +17.4 TOTAL: +501.4 (equivalent to gaining a 2nd rounder #40) Since the first round movement is worth much more, getting Williams at #7 would be like getting pick #26 (700 pts).

With the 86th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select: Mario Edwards Jr, DE, Florida State With the 87th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select: Ibraheim Campbell, SS, Northwestern The Detroit Lions (scs787) are now on the clock.....

With the 85th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals select: Lorenzo Mauldin, OLB, Louisville The Arizona Cardinals are on the clock...

Yeah, that is why you would have to do a Big Board for the team first to take those needs into account. It is like planning in a vacuum (internal Big Board with team considerations only) with external influences (other teams drafting same pool of players) impacting those decisions.

Our Draft > McShay/Kiper Draft 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Stinger226) - Jameis Winston, QB, FSU 2. Tennessee Titans (jason) - Leonard Williams, DE, USC > Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (ASHKUM BEAR) - Dante Fowler, Jr, OLB, Florida > Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama 4. Oakland Raiders (scs787) - Kevin White, WR, WVU > Leonard Williams, DE, USC 5. Washington Redskins (Adam) - Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson > Dante Fowler, Jr, OLB, Florida 6. New York Jets (killakrzydav) - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon > Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa 7. Chicago Bears (jason) - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama > Kevin White, WR, WVU 8. Atlanta Falcons (Stinger226) - Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska > Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky 9. New York Giants (Adam) - Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa > Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia 10. St. Louis Rams (bradjock) - Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford > Devante Parker WR, Louisville 11. Minnesota Vikings (scs787) - Devante Parker WR, Louisville > Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State 12. Cleveland Browns (Adam) - Danny Shelton, DT, Washington 13. New Orleans Saints (Stinger226) - Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky > Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska 14. Miami Dolphins (killakrzydav) - Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin > Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF 15. San Francisco 49ers (jason) - Malcom Brown, DT, Texas > Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon 16. Houston Texans (scs787) - Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State > Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami (Fla.) 17. San Diego Chargers (ASHKUM BEAR) - Shane Ray, DE, Missouri > La'el Collins, OT, LSU 18. Kansas City Chiefs (ASHKUM BEAR) - Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Fla.) > Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State 19. Cleveland Browns (Adam) - La'el Collins, OT, LSU > Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford 20. Philadelphia Eagles (Stinger226) - Landon Collins, SS, Alabama > Marcus Peters, CB, Washington 21. Cincinnati Bengals (Mongo3451) - Jalen Collins, CB, LSU > Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Fla.) 22. Pittsburgh Steelers (Adam) - Marcus Peters, CB, Washington > Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut 23. Detroit Lions (scs787) - T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh > Malcom Brown, DT, Texas 24. Arizona Cardinals (Adam) - Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia > Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin 25. Carolina Panthers (Stinger226) - D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida 26. Baltimore Ravens (Adam) - Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State > Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest 27. Dallas Cowboys (ASHKUM BEAR) - Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest > Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State 28. Denver Broncos (Stinger226) - Cameron Erving, C, Florida State 29. Indianapolis Colts (Mongo3451) - Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF > Shane Ray, DE, Missouri 30. Green Bay Packers (scs787) - Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA > Jalen Collins, CB, LSU 31. New Orleans Saints (Stinger226) - Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma > Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State 32. New England Patriots (Boston Boxer) - Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State > Eric Rowe, CB, Utah We had 4 picks match and 9 positional matches (which is pretty high). 19 other picks were different player/position. Stinger had only one pick not match (McShay is that you?). http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDUCy_sXIAA4m39.png

I know it is not an exact science, but I start out with a big board; so for simplicity's sake I used CBS Sports (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings) since they update their board pretty regularly. Then I use the Draft Value chart (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php) to give each player a value that corresponds with their Big Board ranking. Then every draft position also gets the current value off the chart (ie. Bears #7=1500). So if the Bears select Kevin White, using this method, they are drafting "at value", and if they select Winston, Mariota, Williams, Fowler, Cooper, or Beasley, they will be gaining value from the pick (according to CBS Big Board). I then apply this method to each round to come up with an overall draft score (using the cumulative + and - for each slot and pick), and that value can be put back into the trade value chart to see how much value or lack of value you had in the draft. Using this rudimentary method, Lemon's mock lost us the equivalent of a late 3rd round pick (basically meaning several players were reaches and could've been selected later by trade backs in the total value of a late 3rd rounder). Any system will have flaws and the CBS Big Board is not necessarily tuned for the Bears, so it is more of a coarse assessment, but somewhat accurate. It should at least be able to determine if you have a great draft (positive score), good draft (right around zero), or bad draft (negative score). In a way I was trying to reverse engineer what the team will do and then run multiple simulations to determine maximum value based on each scenario (ie. going WR first, etc).

Rodgers was projected as a top 10 pick (http://walterfootball.com/draft2005.php), so him falling to #24 made it a no brainer as he would've been so far and away the best player on the board regardless of need. Also, Favre was 35 when they drafted Rodgers, and Doug Peterson was the backup, so GB actually had a need at QB. That was actually the perfect time to pull the trigger on a replacement. Rodgers immediately became the backup. I could see teams like NO (Brees), NE (Brady), and DEN (Manning) doing the same thing within the next year or two.

Trying to place a value on each pick, using the CBS Sports Big Board, that draft would be less than the value of the slots. It would be the equivalent to losing a late 3rd round pick. The only pick not considered a reach (according to CBS) was Sammie Coates. It is also illegal on the interwebs to have a "final" mock draft this far out.

They select Gurley and he tears and ACL walking to the podium, all hell breaks loose.

Me too, but now I have seen a couple of mocks with Gurley or Gordon at #7. That was a surprise to me.

The draft is truly a chess match against 31 other opponents, and we have the 7th move. I see the draft strategy more as a value draft than BPA or need-based. The team's big board will determine the value of each player, and the slot we draft will determine which one of those players is BPA at the time. What the team will have to figure out as the draft is occurring is which order of players will maximize the value of the draft for us. Using the draft trade value chart, they can apply a value to each player on their big board, and then add up those values to see if they exceed our draft slot values. Using that technique, you can actually compare mock drafts to determine the better draft. Also, I have to assume the big board is already constructed with some type of need built in (so no board is truly unfiltered BPA). They have to go down each player one by one and say I would take this guy over this guy, and so on and so forth. After the first pick you have to weigh the previous picks into your decisions (so BPA is technically gone at this point). Otherwise you have the potential of drafting 7 LBs. So if you take Shelton for example, now all other DT's, even though they are higher on your big board more than likely won't be selected unless the value of that player is so much higher than the slot you are picking. Just for fun, I will "score" some of the recent mocks on this board.