adam

Kelce has two more years, they will probably go all in for the next two, then do a soft reboot. The first step is the Division, then beating SF. My hope was win the division this year, then beat SF next year, then Super Bowl wins from 2026-2034.

It was high and low range, with the average being the most likely numbers. We are so skewed in Chicago having decades of bad QB play that even saying Williams should hit 4K passing yards with the group he has comes off as being a homer. I just say why not? If Andrew Luck can do it with the group he had in Indy, 4K passing yards with 17 games should not be an issue for Williams. Look at Luck's rookie numbers and his top 3 WR, 2 TE, and 2 RBs. His best player was a 34 year old Reggie Wayne. His TEs and RBs were laughable. Andrew Luck 339-627, 54.1%, 4374 yds, 23 TD, 18 INT Reggie Wayne (34) - 106-1355 Donnie Avery (28) - 60-781 TY Hilton (23) - 50-861 Dwayne Allen (22) - 45-521 Coby Fleener (24) - 26-281 Vick Ballard (22) - 211-814 yds / 17-152 Donald Brown (25) - 108-417 yds / 9-93 Moore, Allen, Odunze, with Kmet and Everett, and Swift plus Herbert make the Indy group look like the little league.

Seeing what Shedeur Sanders is doing, I really can't believe all the BS that came out about Williams before the draft. Most of it was bogus and media generated. I am glad Poles didn't waver. Also, remember all the talk about Carl Williams. Have you seen even a single quote or interview with him this offseason? Compare that to Lavar Ball. Again, another nothing burger. This kid is legit and the real deal. Will he have bad games, sure, rookie issues, absolutely, but he is still going to be really good, if not great. No one cared when the Bears drafted Trubisky, actually, we were ridiculed from day 1. Not many people cared about Fields being the 4th QB taken, and outside of his houdini acts, he was never a big threat in the passing game. However, this time, it is different, other team's fanbases are in full denial/cope mode, and I am here for it. This is going to be a fun and magical season, I can't wait for Week 1.

Those are not my numbers, that is what OTC came up with after reviewing previous season outcomes based on last year's records and the follow year's draft picks. It may not occur because of external factors (injuries, weather, COVID-24, etc), but those numbers are factual based on the information provided.

As long as Williams stays healthy, it's hard for me to see him doing any worse than what Geno Smith did last year, who averaged 241 yds per game, had 20 TDs and 9 INTs. That feels like the floor for Williams. Taking some other recent QBs into account, like Stroud and Love, this seems like Williams most likely ranges for various stats: Completions: [LOW 310 | AVG 338 | HIGH 375] Attempts: [LOW 490 | AVG 526 | HIGH 580] Comp%: [ LOW 62.5% | AVG 64.3% | HIGH 65.2%] Yards: [LOW 3620 | AVG 3964 | HIGH 4284] TD: [LOW 20 | AVG 25 | HIGH 32] INT: [LOW 5 | AVG 8 | HIGH 12] So the most probable numbers would be 338-526, 64.3%, 3,964 yds, 25 TD, 8 INT If Williams hit that number of passing yards, it would be the 6th best all-time for a rookie QB. 25 TDs would be 5th, only 8 INTs would be 5th best, and 64.3% would be 6th. So hit mean set of numbers put him between 5th and 6th all-time for a rookie. With the upgraded supporting cast, I think he exceeds those numbers in every category. I think he falls in between the average numbers and high numbers for al the stats.

Odunze could've came out last year and would've been the #1 WR selected. The Bears luck out and he stays in school, and then ATL drafts a 36 year old QB the pick ahead of the Bears. Then to have Odunze catching passes from Williams with Allen and Moore BEFORE the draft is some Mandela Effect kind of stuff. The Bears have never had this kind of luck before. I think the curse of Javon Wims is over.

Part of it comes down to the exchange. If you read articles from 2022, Williams had issues with shotgun snaps. So even though he is a plus blocker, if he has issues with snaps, it sort of negates some of the blocking advantages. So what I meant was to see which Center Williams felt better with, in terms of snaps, and blocking assignments. You won't really know until you get into the OTAs.

It's true ?

First, I did have GBs RB group ahead of MINs. Second, Jacobs is going to a new offense and just came off a season where he averaged 3.5 YPC. Yuck. Jones knew that offense like the back of his hand and dominated in the playoffs last year. Very few backs post back to back 100-yard games in the playoffs with 3 TDs in 2 games. In 2022, I would agree that Jacobs was better, but for their careers, or any other year, Jones has the edge. Just look up the numbers. Even with Jacobs monster year in 2022, he still averages 0.8 less yards per carry than Jones for his career. Almost 1 yard per carry is a lot. In 130 less carries, Jones has 400 more rushing yards and only one fewer rushing TDs. Then when you take receiving into account, it slants more towards Jones. Receiving TDs for their careers, Jones = 18, Jacobs = 0. Come on man, Zero. That is unheard-of. Even Khalil Herbert has 2 receiving TDs in his career. Using AV for the last 5 seasons, Jones AV = 54, Jacobs AV = 44. Again one monster year in 2022, outside of that, Jacobs has been fairly average. If you had to put their seasons in order, Jacobs has the best season in 2022, but then Jones would have the next 4.

NFC North Skill Groups (1QB, 2RB, 2TE, 3WR): CHI - Williams / Swift, Herbert / Kmet, Everett / Moore, Allen, Odunze DET - Goff / Gibbs, Montgomery / LaPorta, Wright / St. Brown, Williams, Raymond MIN - McCarthy / Jones, Chandler / Hockenson, Oliver / Jefferson, Addison, Powell GB - Love / Jacobs, Lloyd / Musgrave, Kraft / Watson, Dobbs, Reed - Rookies in Red - Meh players in Blue The Bears have the best WR Corps, Everett is the best TE2 of the bunch, making the TE Room competitive with DET and MIN. DET has the best RB Room but CHI and GB are close behind. Adding Odunze really puts the Bears offense over the top. Roschon would be ahead of Chandler on MIN and he is not even listed. Here is how I would rank them today, assuming projected potential from the rookies: QB - CHI / GB / DET / MIN RB - DET / CHI / GB / MIN TE - MIN / DET / CHI / GB WR - CHI / MIN / DET / GB Using pts from 1-4 for each group, totals are as follows: CHI - 13 pts DET - 11 pts MIN - 9 pts GB - 7 pts Just say you don't agree on the QBs, and you bump Williams to 3rd. That would give DET 12pts, CHI 11pts, and GB 8 pts. There is a clear gap from DET and CHI to GB and MIN. For defenses, CHI and MIN were the best, followed by DET, then GB. So I would not be surprised if GB struggles a lot more than people think this year (actual tape on Love). MIN will be contingent on McCarthy, just like the Bears will be on Williams. I just have a lot more faith in Williams. His track record is a lot longer than McCarthy's. If you overlay these teams onto their projected schedules, it shows the following outcomes: 1. Bears 10.5 wins (7 win team +3.5 wins) - Bears already had success against DET last year, Williams adds 2 wins by himself 2. Lions 10.5 wins (12 win team -1.5 wins) - Normal regression with tougher schedule, relatively the same team 3. Vikings 8.5 wins (7 win team +1.5 wins) - Will be solely dependent on McCarthy, this team is the most volatile, could end 6-11 easily. 4. Packers 7.5 wins (9 win team -1.5 wins) - Has regression written all over it, Love was too lucky, loss of Jones will be visible. This is pure science fact and cannot be disputed. One other note. Looking at Jordan Love's numbers, it is hard to see Williams not surpassing what Love did last year (4159 yds, 32 TDs) with this Bears group. Love had those numbers without a receiver that caught 70+ receptions or had over 800 yards. His receivers caught 64, 59, 39, 34, 31, 30, and 28 respectively. Last season, Allen caught 108, Moore 96, Kmet 73, Everett 51, Swift 39, and Herbert caught 20. That is 387 receptions WITHOUT Odunze. Love had 372 completions. Even if you take away 20% from all the Bears listed, then add 63 for Odunze (JSN had 63 last year with Waldron as rookie WR3), Williams would have 372 completions. How ironic.

An interesting tie in with the 2025 draft is Fields' play in 2024. Also, since PIT declined his 5th-year option, he will be a free agent in 2025. So technically, the Steelers could get back a comp pick for him in 2026 if he signs a big enough deal with another team, which could negate the pick they traded to the Bears in 2025 (a year later).

They can also wait to see what they have at Center with Shelton and Bates.

OTC used several years to come up with those values, so it takes out any specific factor, like injuries or coaching. It is most evident when teams have multiple early first round picks (both in top 15), because of the draft pick value scaling. Here were the last few teams that met this criteria: HOU 2023, 2 top 3 picks, +7 wins in 2023 DET 2022, 2 top 12 picks, +6 wins in 2022 CLE 2018, 2 top 4 picks, +6 wins in 2018 Since the Bears already had 7 wins, they didn't get the added benefit of those factors, that is why they would come in at +3-4 wins, but if the Bears were a 4-win team last year, jumping 6 wins would've been right in line with these other teams. Also, these are not my numbers, I am using the work that OTC did to come up with their values. They are normally pretty spot on when it comes to this kind of stuff. The best part is it already matches what a lot of us thought about the teams chances, and sort of reinforces our beliefs with data from a completely different perspective.

We have been talking around this for awhile, but the Bears finished 7-11 and had 3 terrible losses that they shouldn't have had. The team has improved from last year and has the last place schedule. Those factors all point to at least 2-3 more wins this year. Then I saw a tweet from OTC linking one of their articles. In this article, OTC was explaining how they were valuing future draft picks based on previous trade values. However, one interesting table got my attention that wasn't related to the subject of the article. It basically breaks down teams by last year's record, then the average increase or decrease in wins based on their draft picks. Typically worse teams improved more because they are had more room to improve, but also because they drafted better players. So why does this matter? Essentially the Bears got the value of the Panthers pick as a 2-win team AND the value of their own pick as a 7-win team. A team with 0-4.5 wins improves by 3.4 wins while a team with 5-7.5 wins improves by 0.76 wins. Just by using this formula alone, by adding Williams and Odunze, the Bears will improve by no less than 3 wins, but more than likely 4 wins when you take into account the other moves (Allen, Byard, etc). https://overthecap.com/discounting-of-future-nfl-draft-picks Bookmark this and come back in January (again). Bears are winning 10-11 this year.

The defense allowed 17 pts to the Packers in GB without Jaylon Johnson. The Bears had nothing to play for but pride while GB was still trying to get into the playoffs. In the 2 games before the Bears, GB scored 33 both games. In the two playoff games after, they scored 48 and 21, so I would say only allowed 17 without your All-Pro CB was a pretty good defensive effort.

Things are really lining up for 2025 perfectly. With 3 picks in the first two rounds, the Bears can insert 3x blue chippers and bump others down. I assume that will be all in the trenches, with at least one on each line. So 3 starters from this year will be gone or in backup roles.

With $3.1M cap savings and the drafting of Amegajie, Borom seems like the odd man out. Gaining over $3M in cap space would put the Bears back in the top 10 for cap space (currently 12th) which would allow them to bring in another DT and DE with room to spare. Other roster casualties from my perspective are: Robinson, Gill, and possibly Homer and/or Velus. The last two will be ST dependent.

These seem like the most likely guys to make the 53-man roster: Brenden Bates, TE (still need a TE3) Keith Randolph, DT (still need another DT) Jamree Kromah, DE (could replace Robinson who has been ineffective so far) Theo Benedet, OL (would be a back end replacement for someone like Borom ($3.1M cap savings))

I am always surprised how some of these guys don't get drafted. 10 sacks on a top 25 team with a high RAS. What is not to like?

Yeah Getsy to Waldron is a significant improvement as well, I forgot all about Getsy.

That would be insane. There were only 4 teams to have a top 10 offense and defense last year, they finished 1, 2, 4, 5 in overall DVOA. Their average W/L was 12-5. Two of them played in the SB, and 3 of 4 played in the Conference Finals. So there is heavy correlation between top 10 DVOA and overall outcomes. BAL - 1 / 4 / 1 SF - 2 / 1 / 4 DAL - 4 / 9 / 5 KC - 5 / 8 / 7 This is how the Bears finished, but the last 12 weeks they were a top 5 defense: CHI - 22 / 22 / 17

The Bears went from Fields, Foreman, Mooney, St. Brown, Tonyan, Whitehair, and Patrick to Williams, Swift, Allen, Odunze, Everett, Bates, and Shelton in one offseason. It is hard to see this not being a top 12 offense. According to DVOA, the Bears had the 22nd best offense last year. 10 spots seems like a huge leap, but when you improve in every position group, 10 spots seems possible. If the team went 7-11 with 3 terrible losses, 10 wins seems like the floor as they should've had 10 last season. Playing the last place schedule, there are not many dominant teams on their schedule.

+1 yard in Net punting = 7 pts. Gill was dead last. Just say Taylor add 2 yds onto that number. That equates to 14 pts on the season, which would've probably added 2 wins to the team last year. Also, some are speculating that he could also be the kickoff guy if he can kick like he punts, pinning teams deep in their own zone. So we will have to see how it plays out. If he is a top 5 punter for the next decade, great pick. If he is middle of the road or worse, probably a bad pick because most of the top 10 punters are UDFAs right now.

We actually did pretty good. Our consensus draft got 5 correct, and 8 of 10 of the picks in the top 10. Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison, and Nabers (5/10 correct) Alt, Odunze and McCarthy in top 10 (8/10 in the top 10) Turner and Bowers not in top 10 Latham and Penix in top 10

They would be awesome if Fields plays that much, but Wilson is not terrible. He would have to have a few bad games in a row before they replace him.