adam

because this is TalkBears! /end thread

Here are the list of Unanimous and Consensus All-Americans that are in the 2015 draft: All-Americans Unanimous Tevin Coleman, RB Landon Collins, DB Amari Cooper, WR Senquez Golson, DB Melvin Gordon, RB Gerod Holliman, DB Tre Jackson, OL Hau'oli Kikaha, LB Marcus Mariota, QB Brandon Scherff, OL Consensus Nick O'Leary, TE Reese Dismukes, OL Laken Tomlinson, OL Vic Beasley, DL Malcom Brown, DL Shane Ray, DL Paul Dawson, LB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, DB Tyler Lockett, KR/PR I see a lot of names that the Bears have been linked to. It is interesting to look back at past award winners and see where they ended up in the draft and how they performed in their NFL careers. Here are the last 5 years of unanimous All-Americans and where they were drafted. 82% of consensus All-Americans have been drafted in the first two rounds (64% in first round). Last year a few guys dropped for various reasons (man-love, etc) so prior to 2014, the numbers were even higher:

We also don't have a true possession WR either. If BMarsh is gone, I would like to have both a speedy WR to stretch the field, and a possession guy with great hands that runs precise routes.

NE is one of the worst drafting teams in the league over the past decade in regards to efficiency. GB, NE, BAL, PIT, DEN, and IND - all teams in the top 10 over the past decade (in terms of record) are on the bottom half of the league when it comes to draft efficiency. NO is the only good team that has excelled at drafting over the past 10 years (thanks Pace). The Bears are 15th. What makes NE and GB look better is that they have had a lot of extra picks to hit on a good player, but in terms of raw efficiency, they really haven't been that good. Draft Efficiency NE (31st) 17.1/8 GB (18th) 20.0/6 BAL (19th) 19.8/5 PIT (26th) 19.0/5 DEN (16th) 20.7/7 NO (2nd) 26.5/9 IND (20th) 19.5/4 Bears (15th) 21.0/7 Average 21.1/5 *First number is average number of starts per player drafted, and second number is the number of players that made the Pro Bowl at least once. Best team: Chargers Worst team: Redskins Here is the link from 2004-2013: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/which-...-the-nfl-draft/

The idea is the same money is worth more now than it will be if we owe it in 5 years. So $1 mil will not "feel" like $1 mil in 3-4 years. Yet bringing in a impact player with that $5 mil this year vs league minimum player would. Obviously with Cutler owning the biggest cap hit and question marks, makes this a very tough decision. $1 mil a year is really not going to impact us down the road negatively where $5 mil this year could help us a lot. I am just exploring all possibilities. Obviously if Cutler is not in their plans (short or long term), then we would not want to be on the hook for anything beyond the time he is here.

According to Overthecap.com the Bears have approximately $29 million in cap space going into Free Agency. If the Bears plan to stick with Cutler, and want to make a big splash in free agency, wouldn't it make sense to convert some of his 2015 salary into a signing bonus so the hit is spread out over multiple years? If I am reading everything correctly, we could free up around $5 million in cap space this year by converting $6 mil into a signing bonus, then we would carry an extra $1 mil hit per year for the next 5. With the cap increasing basically every year, $1 mil will not be that big of a deal if we had to cut Cutler. However, $5 mil freed this year could bring in another impact free agent. What do you think? Work with what we have or reduce and add another free agent? With Allen dropping off the books after this year, and other contracts expiring (Forte), we are going to have a ton of cap space in 2016. So we could essentially re-work Cutler's contract now to bring in someone this year without having to worry about a crunch next year.

It is pretty funny when they talk about a drop in production, but the guy had half as many targets as he had the two years prior. So of course his receptions and yardage would be down. Every WR on Miami had a down year (maybe the QB's fault or the game plan?). Funny that they cut Hartline and Gibson, are looking to trade Wallace but are keeping Jarvis Landry and his 9.0 yds/rec which is less than their TEs (Clay/Sims). Hartline seems like a durable possession guy.

Here is a cool mock draft tracker: http://www.thehuddlereport.com/scoring/mockdrafts.shtml Other stats sites I use: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/20/Overall/ http://www.sportingcharts.com/ http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php http://www.footballoutsiders.com/

Here are the other recent trades of WR's that included a 3rd or better in the last 7 years. Interestingly, BMarsh is involved in 2 of the 5. Boldin's age at the time of trade was similar to Marshall's current age. Looking at all of these, I am now leaning towards a 3rd and a 5th/6th. I can't believe how much Seattle paid for Harvin and Dallas for Williams. 2008 - Roy Williams and 7th to Dallas for 1st, 3rd, 6th. 2010 - Anquan Boldin and 5th to Baltimore for 3rd and 4th 2010 - BMarsh to Dolphins for 2x 2nd's 2012 - Bmarsh to Bears for 2x 3rd's 2013 - Percy Harvin to Seahawks for 1st, 3rd, 7th.

They draft late in the round, their 3rd is basically a 4th, and he would leave a pretty big hole to fill. I would say a 2nd.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000047...in-negotiations So unless we draft a QB, all signs point to Cutler in 2015.

Cute for a chink?

I really think they are going to target players they are familiar with first (since there would be less of a need for any type of analysis on the player), so DEN, SF, and NO players that fit needs will be obvious choices. I really don't think we will do too much on the offense side of the ball this offseason, at least in free agency. Maybe someone like Mark Ingram at RB, or Eddie Royal at WR. I could see Iupati or Franklin brought in too. I would pass on Hillis, and Julius Thomas is going to command too much money for our blood. Same with Torrey Smith and Randall Cobb. Jacoby Jones could still be useful if he came cheap.

Surprised not to see any Wonderlic score leaks or at least I must of missed them. The only thing I saw was that Gregory scored very high.

Shelton is sticking on a lot of post combine Mocks: Shelton - SI.com - http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/02/23/2015-nfl-...-bay-buccaneers Shelton - Yahoo Sports - http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown...-155706803.html Shelton - CBS Sports - http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat-ki...to-land-mariota

I would be content with Beasley, Gregory, or even Dupree. Ray will be back into consideration after his pro day (as long as he looks good).

https://twitter.com/JimmyKempski/status/568...0357632/photo/1 Pretty cool, 49ers and Rams would be killing it. Fuller, Long, McClellin, Carimi vs Williams, Floyd, Eifert, Jernigan

With how well Beasley, Fowler, and Dupree performed, it would be hard to pass on one of them for Shelton. They all had great seasons and the OLB/DE's backed it up with great combines. Shelton definitely dropped out of the top 10. I know the combine isn't everything and some players are just better football players than metric testers, but the combine has to be at least taken into consideration when evaluating players.

That was a disappointing 40, I wasn't expecting sub 5.00, but 5.66 is really slow (2nd slowest so far this year). I am leaning towards Beasley right now at 7 (if he is there).

Beasley just became a top 5 pick. No way he falls to us after that performance. Dupree also impressing with an unofficial 4.57, longest broad jump at 138 and 42 vertical.

Teams do it all the time, though I am just hoping for an improved competitive team, even if that ends up with us at 7-9 or 8-8. The schedule this year does not bode well for us. However, I see us winning 10+ in 2016, just based on the schedule alone. We get the NFC East and AFC South, and the team that finishes in the same position from the NFC West and South. That is a much lighter schedule, and it will be the 2nd year of the new regime.

Comments out of the Forte camp: Trying to get public opinion on his side if he goes? Why even respond to things like this? They happen all the time.

We also bring in a ton of free agents to use up the cap space with upgrades all around: David Harris, ILB Pernell McPhee, OLB Brandon Flowers, CB Chris Culliver, CB Rahim Moore, S Eddie Royal, WR Mark Ingram, RB Mike Iupati, G btw, I wouldn't change a pick on Jason's draft, that would be ridiculous.

QFT. Thanks for the info. I can see them making that decision just based on locker room harmony and cohesion.

So if a team signs him to a 1-year $14 million deal, his 2015 and 2016 salaries are guaranteed (after March 12th) and both salaries are counted against our cap? Cutler gets basically over $30 million from the Bears over 2 years and $14 million from the new team (for one year). The Bears are hit with a ridiculous cap hit for two years, and he can sign a new long term deal the next year (which would honestly be better for him after how bad 2014 was). Like playing on the franchise tag. It is actually in Cutler's and the new team's best interest if he does sign a low ball offer for one to two years, which would give him actually more money (Bears+new team), it would allow his new team to sign other players with the cap space, and it would make his contract less of a liability for the new team. I could easily see a 1 year $14.9 million deal or $7.49 million per year for two years. The two year deal, even though less lucrative would at least give him some job security and still pay him almost $45 million over two years. If the Bears are keeping Cutler, they need to convert his 2015 salary into a pro-rated bonus, which would average the cap hit out thru 2019, and free up a lot of cap space this year. If they are cutting ties, they have to cut him by March 12th or trade him.