adam

Win or go home! I am hoping for a solid game from all phases and a good win, Bears 27-17.

I updated the original post again after last nights game. We are locked in at #17 based on SoS. All the teams above us other than GB have a stronger schedule than us, so we would have the best pick amongst those teams we tie with. PIT at #10 seems to be the highest we could end up (realistically) if we lost our last 3.

This is exactly how I feel. Cutler is a better athlete, but who knows if he is actually better in this system. Cutler should perform at or above the level of McCown regardless of the situation. I just feel that numbers are numbers, you can't try to take them out of context or manipulate them to suit your position. McCown, based on his stats alone is clearly outperforming Cutler in this offense. So for the Cleveland game, Cutler should perform somewhere between Rodgers and Stafford, that seems to be a fair assessment. So somewhere between: 25/36, 260 Yds, 3 TD, 0 INT and 25/43, 248 Yds, 4 TD, 1 INT = 25-40, 254 Yds, 3 TD, 1 INT To me that would be a decent game and something comparable with his skill level. The attempts are a little high, but the yardage and TD/INT should be close to those numbers.

He would be a great addition, and Seattle is eventually going to be strapped for cash.

1. I thought Week 9 after the Bye we would see the offense start peaking. However, it is nice to see progression. 2. Dallas held Philly to 3 pts and STL to 7 pts, so they are bad, but can put together good games. They did come into the game at 7-5. 3. You can't play the what-if game or count the almost INTs. Either they are INTs or they are not. For every INT Cutler throws, he has 1-2 more that should've been. Penalties negate great offensive plays as much as they negate INTs, so in the end, you can only count what is official. The other non-plays even out over time.

He actually leads the league now: http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

That is not necessarily true. Some teams realistically know they are not competing for a championship every year and have other goals to achieve. I would say making the playoffs after a regime change would be a success.

I would not actually make a decision until Friday after Jay showed no signs of injury.

Based on their QBR's, McCown is better than Brady this year, along with a bunch of other QBs. Brady is not the same without Gronk.

Every team's goal is to win the SB. It is not like we have an option to make the playoffs or not. This season is going to come down to Week 17 against GB. DET is going to lose against BAL, and we are going to win against CLE and PHI to setup a win and you're in scenario. At that point, we are not going to better our draft position that much, especially with us already having 7 wins. The worst we will do is 8-8 and best is 10-6 with a playoff berth.

Updated the first post, we are between 17-19th with a 7-6 record. 14th to 20th seems to be our range if we do not make the playoffs, and 32nd if we do.

I understand, that is why I used the term pedigree, because he is not in the same class as the others. He is a journeyman who needed the stars to align (right system, right coach, right skill players, right timing) to get to this point. While the others had more direct paths to this point. However, that doesn't mean he cannot play at a similar level to what Cutler has (or better) over the next 3-4 years. How many good years does Cutler have left in him with all the wear and tear on his body? I just don't think some realize how good McCown has been this season. He has the highest QBR for a QB this season, higher than Manning, which is shocking considering how good Manning has been. He is currently on pace to have the 4th best QBR ever. The top 10 is Manning(5), Brady(1), Rodgers(1), Brees (2), and McCown. If you consider a single season an anomaly, then Cutler's 2008 is his anomaly as he never had another 4,000 yard season, or QBR as high as his 72.1 that year. Actually, his next highest was this year at 63.2 and that is still 22.5 lower than McCown with almost the same amount of attempts. It is also interesting to note that Cutler has only had one season before this year on the Bears where he was above league average for QBR (2011). Another interesting fact is that Cutler has thrown more INTs than games played in a Bears uniform (71 in 64 games). That does not take into account the games he left, so technically the ratio is higher. I realized he had a bad first year, but I did not know he was still averaging over a pick a game. Is Cutler really all that different than Romo? Hell, you could make the case that Romo is better with 4x 4,000 yard seasons, and only one season with a QBR below 50 (49 in 2008). He has a 27-7 TD/INT ratio this year and will more than likely top 4,000 yards again. To me it seems that Emery and Trestman are ready to go in a different direction. I feel like McCown is a better fit for what Trestman wants to do, thus making McCown look better than Cutler even though Cutler is more skilled. Just like in Canada with the older QB (Cavillo) and Gannon winning the MVP in his late 30s, all 3 fit a similar mold more than Cutler does. Also, Cutler is getting beat up with these random injuries on what seem like normal hits. After that scrambling throw to Jeffery last night, I don't know what type of throw McCown cannot make that Cutler can unless it is a 60 yard bomb.

I just feel like the Bears know what they have in Cutler and what they have without him, and should be able to put a price on that. I just don't see that price being anywhere near what Cutler will earn on the open market.

In a weird way, I almost feel like Jay is already gone. Everyone is just saying all the right things so the separation is amicable and there are no hard feelings. Jay is on the sideline cleaning up his image supporting the team and Josh and looking like a team player. The first time he did that when he was out, didn't anyone else find that out of character for him? If he returns and plays poorly (which is highly likely due to time off and lack of timing with Receivers), there will be too much data that suggests McCown is a better fit for Trestman and the new offense. Additionally, how could the team invest that much money into a player who's play is not commensurate with his pay? That is just not good business sense. Emery and Trestman crunch too many numbers and a 13 to 1 TD/INT ratio is much better than 13 to 8. If he doesn't return, injuries will become an even bigger focus/concern and will impact his negotiating leverage. I can't see the Bears signing him without seeing him perform at McCown's level in this offense. Even if he returns and plays well, if we lose a game and don't make the playoffs, he will get blamed. He is supposed to be the big time QB that can win games with his arm (which McCown supposedly cannot). At this point, the only scenario I can see where he is given an extended contract or Franchise Tag is if he comes back, we win out, make the playoffs, and win at least one playoff game. That seems like a lot, but based on McCown's performance to date (highest QBR this year, 4th all-time), I believe he has to play comparable to even be considered for a new contract. Everyone is worried about McCown's age. He was born the same year as Brees and Palmer, is younger than Brady and Manning, and is less than a year older than Romo. It is hard to believe that anyone would turn down any of those QB's at their current age other than Palmer (due to injuries). Now obviously he does not have the pedigree as the others do but with the likes of Gannon and Warner and others that excelled in their mid to late 30's, why not McCown?

Hell there has been a bunch. How about that Washington game when our defense couldn't stop the hobbled RG2.5, or when we run into the teeth of the Detroit's defense to lose by 2. Those 2 games and the Minnesota game were maddening. We could have 9 or 10 wins right now.

Lol, I played him in the Keeper league and he single-handedly won the game for me this week. He definitely made it interesting and if he broke 400 yards, it would've been much closer in our game. I have been on board the McCown bandwagon since he came into the Washington game, playing with little to no reps and gave us the lead late. If we had even a league average defense right now we would have 9 wins. He has now won in GB, in brutal conditions against BAL, and in freezing and windy conditions tonight (on MNF again). A pretty nice run for a career backup.

At least he didn't fumble, didn't get stuffed on every run and caught a pass. That was his best game in a long time. Still needs to be gone after this season, but for now he is serviceable.

Cutler is going to cost $14+ million with zero cap relief, or we can go McCown with a rookie QB to groom for 1/4 of that plus re-sign some key players or bring in an impact FA. After tonight's game, it is going to be hard for management to invest in Cutler with other holes to fill when it is clear that McCown can come in and play at a high level in this offense. McCown's QBR is 2nd only to Peyton Manning this year, and not by much. You would think with the ridiculous year Manning is having that no one would be close, but McCown is right there after tonight. Also, as someone mentioned before, the wear and tear on Cutler's body has to be taken into consideration.

86-119, 72.3%, 1,055 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rushing TD in last 3 games. 3 straight 300 yards passing games. Impressive, especially in those conditions, which were brutal. A few balls could've been picked off, but at least he was aggressive, and that pass and catch to Alshon was a thing of beauty. It is hard to doubt his production now, and when comparing him to Cutler, I would say that McCown has outperformed Cutler in this offense.

With Kubiak gone, it would seem like Lovie is a logical choice for the position. What do you guys think? They are a much better team than their record, and they pretty much have the #1 pick wrapped up. Seems like a great situation for a new coach as the team cannot perform any worse.

Lol are you kidding. At most he should be on the ST unit or the guy that holds the ball on kickoffs when it is too windy (like Steltz). He should not be an every down DE.

Well in theory, he is better than when we only have 10 players on the field, so he is technically correct. That could be the only way we are better. Even Bass looked better. However, we get gashed in the run game when SMC is out there and he never holds contain as almost every outside run or reverse he is there getting pushed inside.

I agree, and even that game is no guarantee. Clinton-Dix should be the pick if he is there from 12-15. I don't see him dropping further than that.

I like all the picks except McCarron. Isn't he essentially a "game manager" and has been playing on a stacked team with a great defense and run game since he has been in college? That just seems to have bust written all over it. I would rather take a true DE in the top 4 rounds (especially if Peppers is let go), or a better run stuffing DT. So FS, CB, C, and DL for the first 4 rounds would be great.

McCown was playing it safe and it showed, we were brutal on 3rd Downs. Hard to win or move the ball consistently when you are 2-11 on 3rd Downs. I know you can't, but take away the 2 long passes to Jeffery and McCown only has 229 yards on 34 attempts, for under 6 yards an attempt (which is essentially dink and dunk). We didn't score a single pt for the last 33 minutes of the game. I still am high on McCown and he can be a starter in the right system (with a team with a dominate Defense and run game), but is better suited as a backup. We really need Cutler back vs Dallas.