adam

My fear is someone trades up with ATL instead of the Bears. Penix is the biggest wild card of the group, I think Williams, Daniels, and Maye go in the top 4. Then it is whether other teams get FOMO and go after McCarthy or Penix early. The Chargers literally have no WRs, so I doubt they trade down when they can get one of the top 3 WRs. Same goes for the Giants, look at their WRs. They could also go QB. If QBs go 1-2-3, can the Cards afford not to draft MHJ? That's why it seems like Alt is going to the Titans. Atlanta doesn't need Bowers, and they can get the #1 defensive player in the draft if they want to. I am just hoping 4 QBs go in the top 8 at least giving the Bears the option for Turner at 9 if they can't trade down.

I agree, I would say Rodgers is a better comp too. That would be funny as long as Love only ends up as slightly above average.

Also, sheer numbers don't mean anything unless you watch the games. I remember Colt Brennan from Hawaii put up gaudy numbers every season, then was drafted in the 6th round. I have now watched several games of each of the top QBs. I like them all, but Williams stands out. He makes all the throws, and then has so many wow passes. If I didn't know their ages or injury history, I would probably go Williams, Penix, Daniels, Nix, Maye, then McCarthy. They all may turn out good/great, but I think when you are looking at ceilings and floors, Williams' highs are above everyone elses.

It's probably subjective and hard to go back to look, but when Winston was selected, it was not known until draft day. Most of the consensus picks are known ahead of time, like Luck, Burrow, and Lawrence. Some teams even announce it ahead of time for some reason. The Bears aren't there yet with Williams but if he only does one 30 visit, it is pretty clear that the Bears let him know their intentions. That was not the intent of the tiers, but really where they should fall based on performance+situation. On Winston. Here is a Bucs fan thread before the draft: My favorite: "Im an FSU fan, I went to FSU and if we take Winston i will be freakin pissed" Young was not the consensus #1, so I put him with Winston (who was also not the consensus #1) and because they both would need the perfect situation to succeed in the NFL. Young needs a brickwall, max protect. If he gets that, he can actually be pretty good, but his ceiling is probably top-15 QB with his floor being out of the league after his rookie deal. Winston also needed an offensive scheme that would limit his risky passes and he went to the exact opposite. In comparing Murray, Mayfield, and Williams, leading up to the draft, there was nowhere near the hype for Mayfield or Murray. In 2018, Darnold was the #1 for most of the draft cycle and that didn't change until right before the draft: https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2018/4/25/17281908/browns-cooling-on-sam-darnold-weighing-josh-allen-and-baker-mayfield Murray was the best option available between him, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins, but his size was always an issue. I just feel like Williams, Burrow, and Lawrence are in the same tier based on the pre-draft analysis. Almost everyone had those guys as the best QB of the draft, then there was everyone else. Most people knew CIN and JAX were drafting them well before the draft, just like Williams.

Newton is going in the first round and I doubt he lasts past #20. Some have him as the #1 DT.

61 TD - 1 INT in the Red Zone is insane. That does not include his rushing TDs.

I had to do some pick swaps to make it more legitimate, so it was #9, #75, and a 2025 5th for #13, #44, #77, and a 2025 6th.

For the guys in the article, I would rate them in this order coming out, by tiers: Luck / Williams, Burrow, Lawrence / Goff, Newton, Mayfield, Murray / Winston, Young Young was not the consensus #1, either was Winston as Mariota went right after him. I feel like Mayfield and Murray were brothers from another mother. Newton was seen as a dual threat QB, but there were passing concerns. Lawrence was the consensus #1, so was Burrow, which feels very similar to Williams. Now compare the team's record the year prior to drafting them: IND 2-14 CHI 7-10 CIN 2-14 JAX 1-15 LAR 7-9 (traded up with Titans) CAR 2-14 CLE 0-16 ARZ 3-13 TB 2-14 CAR 7-10 (traded up with Bears) So the Bears are the only team with 4 or more wins that didn't have to trade up for the pick.

Here is the updated consensus mock. Once I get all the entries, I will re-average the players so ones without a top 15 selection will be properly averaged out. Right now I am just averaging the known picks. So guys like Newton and Murphy will fall.

Looking at the teams that need QBs after the Bears pick, I think there may be several teams looking to get into the top 10 for a QB. The Raiders, Vikings, Broncos, and Saints could use a QB. I don't think anyone else trades up for a player unless it is a QB, or someone like Bowers. I think the Cardinals and Falcons could also trade back with a team for a QB. To get to #4, it will cost a lot. #8 looks a lot better for other teams, but going to #9 is even cheaper. I doubt NYJ trade back as they want to get a blue chipper for Rodgers to tear his Achilles again. Here is my top 15, with the Bears trading down with LVR so they can pick McCarthy.

It looks like the Bears had dinner with Caleb last night and they had some players there:

If it is not autographed, or a rookie card, it is probably valued a lot less than you think. Autographed cardstock photos go from $100-200 for Butkus. Here is someone else that tried to sell one from an estate sale: https://www.worthpoint.com/worthopedia/vtg-1968-dick-butkus-chicago-bears-24-440449876

I hope not, he would take reps away from Moore, Allen, etc, etc. That would be a last resort type of thing.

He really is a wasted pick, but compared to a guy like Claypool, it was Poles' draft pick. He clearly treats them differently as Velus is still on the roster and still has 2 years left on his rookie deal. If he is still this ineffective, I could see them cutting or trading him this season. Velus had less snaps on offense than Claypool, and Claypool wasn't even on the team for half the season. Velus also had less snaps than Taylor. He also had less snaps than he had his rookie year. So his entire usage was down. However, when given the chance, he was pretty good at KR. He has 38 career kickoff returns, and averages over 27 yards per return. He also did not return a punt in 2023. The muffs and fumbles were from his rookie year. He feels more like an arena football player, and this kickoff seems better suited for his athleticism compared to a normal kickoff. I honestly think he would be better at it than he is at anything else (low bar I know), but they have to use him for something.

With the new kickoff rules, he will at least be the KR this year.

Yeah, it seems like BPA but within a group of positions like you listed. I just think WR no later than pick 75 is all but guaranteed. If they don't trade down AND select an OT, Edge, or DT at #9, #75 almost has to be a WR, which I don't necessarily like to do, but Poles almost locks himself into that, otherwise, you don't have any starter quality WRs on rookie deals.

Pace did the smartest guy in the room thing and was too dead set on one guy, especially when it was against popular belief. Trubisky and Shaheen are two obvious ones. Poles has a methodical approach and the last few years sucked, but the core of this team is locked in for multiple years. Assuming they draft Williams and another starter with the other 1st round pick, this would be the list of starters and key subs with contracts thru the 2025 season as of today: Offense (11): Williams, Swift, Moore, Kmet, Wright, Jones, Davis, Bates, Everett (0.5), WR3/Johnson, Scott (8.5/3) Defense (15): Sweat, Walker, Billings, Dexter, Edmunds, Edwards, Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Brisker, Byard/Smith, Owens, Sewell, Pickens (11/4) ST (2): Santos, Jones (2) So only Jenkins and Allen would need to be extended to lock up the entire starting lineup thru the end of 2025. This doesn't even consider that they will be adding 3 more starters in next year's draft at a minimum with 3 picks in the top 60. So those all could be upgrades instead of hole fillers. An interesting note, by looking at it this way (contracts for starters for 2+ years), it really looks like they would be using #9 or the subsequent traded down pick on offense. The WRs with contracts thru 2025 are Moore, Jones, and Scott. That's it. They need more stability there, and even if Allen extends, that is a thin group. I expect a WR early. Edge is still possible, but DT seems unlikely with Billings, Dexter, and Pickens with 2+ years left on their contracts.

Add two more to the list of 30 visits and Senior Bowl attendees: Ben Sinnott/TE Jha'quan Jackson/WR Add Chop Robinson to 30 visit list. Odds are the Bears select at least one guy from the list of guys with 30 visits and Senior Bowl players: Ben Sinnott/TE Jha'quan Jackson/WR Dylan Laube/RB Elijah Jones/CB Cam Hart/CB Nehemiah Pritchett/CB Sinnott is the only one that makes sense. Jackson would be a returner only, and they already have that with Velus. RB and CB would be wasted picks.

A player can holdout, but can't go back to college as far as I know. They can re-enter the draft the following year.

That is an interesting way to look at it but it is the RB position group, which is completely devalued anyway. Also, Roschon was a backup his entire collegiate career, so he would not compare PFF rating-wise to starters.

Good year not to have 5th -7th round picks: https:/twitter.com/BrendanSugrue/status/1775158080822563292?s=20

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The more I run through these mock drafts, the more I come to these conclusions: 1. If the Bears have a blue chipper at 9, they are not trading back. I think that includes the 3 WRs, Alt, and probably Turner. Unless someone is offering up a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd, I think they are standing pat. 2. If they do trade back, I think they will trade back at least one more time and pickup a 2025 pick (instead of a 2024). So if they trade back and get back a 2nd, I can see them trading back in the 3rd to pickup a 2025 4th or something like that. 3. I don't think you are finding a starter after the 2nd round this year. So if the Bears don't trade back, besides Williams, #9 may be the only rookie starter.

Hometown: Hinsdale, IL < ? 10th ranked OT according to NFL.com NextGen Stats: https://www.nfl.com/combine/tracker/participants/ol/all-colleges/ PFF Grade of 89.5, but only played in 4 games. Had a 73.5 for a full season in 2022. His average draft position is #58 according to PFF.

Also, Sweat is on a long term deal which equates to a rookie's deal for the 2nd rounder. Bates has two years, and if he plays well, will probably be extended. So the only wild card is Allen but the Bears have an extra 4th. So the Bears don't really lose any roster flexibility with the loss of picks. The Bears had 10 picks last year and Williamson and Bell are gone. So they are already down to 8 after one year. So having 10+ picks feels good, but they can't and won't all play. Some won't make the team or just become PS fodder. The lack of depth of this draft makes using the later round picks on known commodities a brilliant strategy.