adam

The last line of the article says it all:

We will certainly find out, it going to be an interesting season. We were just 10-6, but many felt we left a few games on the field and should've been better. With the offseason acquisitions (and with the subtraction of Davis alone) we should be better going into this season. Also, from a coaching standpoint, we should be light years better on offense and probably a little worse on defense (figuring in the loss of Lovie, Marinelli, and Urlacher). Mel Tucker has his work cut out for him, but man, wouldn't you love taking over for a team that has Peppers, Melton, Briggs, Tillman, and Jennings returning, and with guys like Anderson and Williams hungry to prove themselves.

Another cool site with a decent article on QB valuation: http://overthecap.com/value-pricing-the-nfl-qb/ They said Cutler under-performed and is worth between $8-$9 million a year. To me that seems about right.

I can't see that either, and I don't know if that would actually be a surprise if Emery drafted him anyway. Kenny Vaccaro or Eddie Lacy would be surprise picks for me.

I wouldn't say it is drafting to dodge a salary, it is just killing two birds with one stone. You get younger and cheaper for comparable performance and then can take the savings and apply it elsewhere. Also, both are Pro Bowlers last year, but you can predict where they will be in two years. Tillman will be 34. All I am saying is a DB in the 1st would not be wasted. He could come in an immediately play Nickel, and could move up if either of the top 2 struggle or get injured. Then that gives the Bears some financial flexibility next offseason. With the signing of the 2 LB's, we are in the same boat. If we drafted a LB in the 1st, someone would be the odd man out. Besides OG or possibly OT, there really is no one specific huge hole to fill. Like scs said, who then? List the players that would start right away if drafted in the 1st.

I guess the point is that he will never see the field or make an impact, so it really doesn't matter who ends up with the 3rd String QB job.

Jason, from a financial perspective, CB is a possibility. Even though both made the Pro Bowl last year, they will both be UFA's after this season with pretty high salaries. A first rounder could potentially provide the same level of play at a fraction of the cost. If it is not CB, then what, LB is still a high possibility, and I would say OG and OT are still up there as we always can use upgrades there. Maybe WR too. I hope it is not DT, but with the quality at that position, it may end up being a steal in terms of BPA.

Yeah the board sure got a boost when we merged way back when. I am one of posters that came over from SoxTalk when they opened this one up back in 2006. We did the merge in late 2007 and it has been great ever since.

To me Emery just put us in a great position for next offseason. The Bears will have 26 UFA's, almost half of their roster, and with a few restructures/extensions (Peppers, Marshall, Briggs, Bennett, and Bush), the Bears will have about $60 million to play with.

Since there are a bunch of DE/DT's rated high this year, one or two of them seem like the most likely to drop.

Yeah, I was just pointing out another analysis site and some of the stuff they posted. I had never heard of the site before, but it backs up and refutes some of the info that others have posted lately.

I really hope there are some teams moving up to get their QB. Funny things happen near the end of the first because teams don't want to lose out early on the 2nd day of draft, so they move up.

So I was reading some articles on NFP, that linked me to Draftmetrics, here are the articles: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Late-r...to-success.html and http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Studyi...-NFL-Teams.html Some great info and analysis, checkout their site here: http://www.draftmetrics.com/ Some of the take-aways, based on Big school vs Little school drafting, the Bears are almost dead on league average, where teams like the Seahawks and Saints almost exclusively draft from a BCS eligible school. The Bears drafted over the league average from the Big-12, and less than the league average from the ACC. For the entire league, here is the percentage of 5-year starters from their draft position (1993-2006): Picks 1-13 - 74.7% Picks 14-40 - 55.3% Picks 41-66 - 39.8% Picks 67-86 - 22.9% Picks 87-149 - 16.0% Picks 150-189 - 8.9% Picks 190+ - 6.8% The drop-offs are to be expected, though I didn't necessarily think they would be at those picks. Once you are past pick 66, you have less than a 25% chance of drafting a regular starter. It drops off quickly after that. From 1993-2006, the Packers, Steelers, Rams had the most total 5-yr starters, drafting 31 or more. The Rams were surprising to me there. The Bears are actually in the 2nd group with 28. However, when you get to the efficiency part of the draft, that is where we fail. For efficiency, we were 17th at -.033, meaning we drafted less starters than what was the norm for our pick positions. The Packers, Steelers, 49ers, Giants, and Rams were the most efficient. When I think about this, the Rams have had a lot of top 5 picks, so I can see where they were almost in the can't miss category boosting their efficiency. The Lions, Eagles, Raiders, Saints, and Vikings were the worst. Now this makes sense too, Matt Millen and Al Davis selecting bust after bust, year after year. To me there was not much groundbreaking info there, but the success rates of picks was pretty interesting. For us, since we are not in the top 13, it almost makes sense to move back and pick up another pick to give us a better chance at drafting a starter.

That would be a very solid draft. Cooper at #20 and Amerson at #50 would be huge.

Nice.

Patterson would be an interesting pick, but I would think he would be better on the outside. With Marshall and Jeffery, I still think Ogletree and Trufant would be best according to this analysis.

You could actually make this into a poll. I don't see any scenario where they pick him, and that's why he will end up as our #20 selection. If they miss on Ogletree, I would rather have them go Brown, Reddick, or Minter, before Teo.

There are a bunch of DT's on the list. Hopefully that will make Emery look elsewhere. Patterson at #20 feels a little early for me, especially since he is not a slot WR.

I agree, those two stood out. I was surprised that Cooper, Fluker, and Austin were selected so many times in the top 19.

So I was bored and decided to take a look at 10 different mock drafts and see where players were being projected. This would give me at least somewhat of a clue for who will be there at #20. Here is what I came up. The following 10 players were selected in the top 19 in every draft, and I have to assume that none will be available at #20 (ESPN Grade): Luke Joeckel, OT (97) Eric Fisher, OT (96) Lane Johnson, OT (94) Chance Warmack, OG (95) Geno Smith, QB (91) Ezekiel Ansah, DE (95) Dee Milliner, CB (95) Barkevious Mingo, LB (94) Sharrif Floyd, DT (97) Jarvis Jones, LB (93) The next 8 were in 80-90% of the mocks, so it is unlikely that they will be there at #20: Dion Jordan, DE (95) Star Lotulelei, DT Jonathan Cooper, OG (94) Tavon Austin, WR (93) Sheldon Richardson, DT (93) DJ Fluker, OT (91) Xavier Rhodes, CB Bjoern Werner, DE (92) Kenny Vaccaro, S (93) , was the only other player selected in over 50% of the drafts (60%). I found it interesting that at this point, I have listed 19 players, which would be the count before the Bears pick. So the next 7 players were selected in the top 19 of the mocks 50% or less (down to 10%), I believe there is a great chance that these players will be available at #20: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (90) Desmond Trufant, CB (91) Alec Ogletree, LB (94) Matt Barkley, QB Tyler Eifert, TE (93) Sylvester Williams, DT (92) Menelik Watson, OT The following players appeared in the first round of the mock drafts, but were at #20 or higher and never selected before #20: Arthur Brown, LB Manti Te'o, LB (89) Kevin Minter, LB DeAndre Hopkins, WR Justin Hunter, WR Keenan Allen, WR (91) Robert Woods, WR Jonathan Banks, CB Kwann Short, DT (89) John Jenkins, DT (90) Jesse Williams, DT Jonathan Hankins, DT Jonathan Cyprien, S Matt Elam, S Eric Reid, S Damontre Moore, DE Margus Hunt, DE Tank Carradine, DE Eddie Lacy, RB (89) Montee Ball, RB Justin Pugh, OG (89) Now I know there will be some curveballs, reaches, and possibly some trades, but to me, the consensus on some of the earlier picks make me think this will be a fairly accurate assessment. So with that said, and the wall of text done, who out of the last two groups would you accept as a respectable pick at #20?

Actually, if you look back, some were even looking at him in the 2nd or 3rd round. The 4th was almost a non-brainer pick at that point as he was one of the highest rated players still available.

No way, this guy lost weight and is down to 270, which was his goal. He needs to be down in the 250's to be even considered. Leinart and Quinn are available as well, and they were good in college, sign em up.

Joeckel or Fisher or trading down.

Team need is still factored, but I believe there are a few needs close to the same value, compared to 1 or 2 glaring needs forcing us to go to a specific position over BPA. Now we can essentially go BPA from OG, LB, CB, WR, DT and C. It looks to me that OG and LB are the biggest needs, with DT, CB, WR, and C as the next tier. The last tier would be OT and QB. I would be surprised if we selected RB, TE, S. 1 - OG / LB 2 - DT / CB / WR / C 3 - OT / QB 4 - RB / TE / S 5 - K / P To me, DT is rising, and the 1st Round pick looks like it could be OG, LB, DT, CB, or WR.

Asst LB Coach? Quality Control?