adam

Nice.

Patterson would be an interesting pick, but I would think he would be better on the outside. With Marshall and Jeffery, I still think Ogletree and Trufant would be best according to this analysis.

You could actually make this into a poll. I don't see any scenario where they pick him, and that's why he will end up as our #20 selection. If they miss on Ogletree, I would rather have them go Brown, Reddick, or Minter, before Teo.

There are a bunch of DT's on the list. Hopefully that will make Emery look elsewhere. Patterson at #20 feels a little early for me, especially since he is not a slot WR.

I agree, those two stood out. I was surprised that Cooper, Fluker, and Austin were selected so many times in the top 19.

So I was bored and decided to take a look at 10 different mock drafts and see where players were being projected. This would give me at least somewhat of a clue for who will be there at #20. Here is what I came up. The following 10 players were selected in the top 19 in every draft, and I have to assume that none will be available at #20 (ESPN Grade): Luke Joeckel, OT (97) Eric Fisher, OT (96) Lane Johnson, OT (94) Chance Warmack, OG (95) Geno Smith, QB (91) Ezekiel Ansah, DE (95) Dee Milliner, CB (95) Barkevious Mingo, LB (94) Sharrif Floyd, DT (97) Jarvis Jones, LB (93) The next 8 were in 80-90% of the mocks, so it is unlikely that they will be there at #20: Dion Jordan, DE (95) Star Lotulelei, DT Jonathan Cooper, OG (94) Tavon Austin, WR (93) Sheldon Richardson, DT (93) DJ Fluker, OT (91) Xavier Rhodes, CB Bjoern Werner, DE (92) Kenny Vaccaro, S (93) , was the only other player selected in over 50% of the drafts (60%). I found it interesting that at this point, I have listed 19 players, which would be the count before the Bears pick. So the next 7 players were selected in the top 19 of the mocks 50% or less (down to 10%), I believe there is a great chance that these players will be available at #20: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (90) Desmond Trufant, CB (91) Alec Ogletree, LB (94) Matt Barkley, QB Tyler Eifert, TE (93) Sylvester Williams, DT (92) Menelik Watson, OT The following players appeared in the first round of the mock drafts, but were at #20 or higher and never selected before #20: Arthur Brown, LB Manti Te'o, LB (89) Kevin Minter, LB DeAndre Hopkins, WR Justin Hunter, WR Keenan Allen, WR (91) Robert Woods, WR Jonathan Banks, CB Kwann Short, DT (89) John Jenkins, DT (90) Jesse Williams, DT Jonathan Hankins, DT Jonathan Cyprien, S Matt Elam, S Eric Reid, S Damontre Moore, DE Margus Hunt, DE Tank Carradine, DE Eddie Lacy, RB (89) Montee Ball, RB Justin Pugh, OG (89) Now I know there will be some curveballs, reaches, and possibly some trades, but to me, the consensus on some of the earlier picks make me think this will be a fairly accurate assessment. So with that said, and the wall of text done, who out of the last two groups would you accept as a respectable pick at #20?

Actually, if you look back, some were even looking at him in the 2nd or 3rd round. The 4th was almost a non-brainer pick at that point as he was one of the highest rated players still available.

No way, this guy lost weight and is down to 270, which was his goal. He needs to be down in the 250's to be even considered. Leinart and Quinn are available as well, and they were good in college, sign em up.

Joeckel or Fisher or trading down.

Team need is still factored, but I believe there are a few needs close to the same value, compared to 1 or 2 glaring needs forcing us to go to a specific position over BPA. Now we can essentially go BPA from OG, LB, CB, WR, DT and C. It looks to me that OG and LB are the biggest needs, with DT, CB, WR, and C as the next tier. The last tier would be OT and QB. I would be surprised if we selected RB, TE, S. 1 - OG / LB 2 - DT / CB / WR / C 3 - OT / QB 4 - RB / TE / S 5 - K / P To me, DT is rising, and the 1st Round pick looks like it could be OG, LB, DT, CB, or WR.

Asst LB Coach? Quality Control?

Sorry to revive this post, but it fun to see you taking Alshon in the 1st and Arthur Brown in the 4th, whom we might select this year. I was looking for last year's mocks to see how we did.

Yes, the joke is on them.

If we draft any LB's to play the middle, it at least has to be one of the following: Ogletree, Brown, Teo, Minter, or Reddick.

Nice try, but not enough wow factor. Something like he was traded for Carson Palmer and picks would've been better, or that we extended him for Romo-type money. I pinned it, hopefully that will help.

This is Cutler's last stand. If he can't put up top 10 QB stats, with the Bears making a solid playoff run, I can't see Emery extending/re-signing him. He basically has to have his best season with the Bears to instill any confidence in the organization.

Well they just didn't change the pick numbers, but the order seems to be correct. I don't like the picks though.

Also, another interesting thing about some of the contracts is that they are using the "Minimum Salary Benefit Rule". We have saved almost a million dollars in cap space over the last 5 contracts (before Slauson and McCown): Hayden - $905,000 - $285,000 savings - $620,000 cap hit Bowman - $780,000 - $160,000 savings - $620,000 cap hit Scott - $780,000 - $160,000 savings - $620,000 cap hit McBride - $715,000 - $160,000 savings - $555,000 cap hit Zbikowski - $715,000 - $160,000 savings - $555,000 cap hit 5 contracts, $925k savings The Minimum Salary Benefit:

Backup QB solidified? Blanchard the #3?

Williams basically didn't play last year so that comparison is ridiculous. That's like comparing their 09-10 campaign, Urlacher had 3 tackles to Williams 100. The numbers don't tell the whole story. Also, just because you have high numbers doesn't necessarily show how many you missed or were broken. Sure Urlacher's numbers were down due to injury and age, but Williams was suspended, which in a way benefited his body with less wear and tear last year. Urlacher rebounded with a great year in 2010-11, and Williams should trend the same way this year.

Another great signing. Bushrod and Slauson on the left side will really solidify pass protection. Now if we do draft an OG or OC, this line is going to be really solid in complete contrast to the last couple of seasons. He graded out great for pass protection which is amazing considering he was blocking for Sanchez. Also, for his run blocking, how much of that was because he was blocking for Greene who took an hour to hit the hole?

How about comparing Anderson to Roach for the last 2 years: Anderson - 98, 39 Roach - 31, 51 Also, Anderson missed 4 games due to injury.

Several? Essentially 2 new starting LB's and a backup Safety/ST is several? Also, these guys are coming in from similar schemes, so learning curves will be much smaller. Also, both Williams and Anderson are vets who should be able to adjust pretty quickly. I don't see this as a rebuild. That would be a year where we cut or trade Peppers, Briggs, Tillman, Jennings, Cutler, and Marshall; pick up a slew of draft picks and start over.

I would say we are better in two ways, first on the field Williams/Anderson will be better than Urlacher/Roach. Secondly, the cost of Williams/Anderson is lower than Urlacher/Roach thus allowing the Bears to use the savings to improve elsewhere.

That's silly, there is no way that will happen. We are going OG, LB, and CB with at least 3 of our picks. Then probably WR, DT, C.