adam

No decision made yet, but when Poles says Fields needs to be better in 2-minute situations and Flus says his QB needs to win in 2-minute situations, it feels like they are laying out their plan. Can it change, absolutely, but to me, it feels like they are just waiting for a trade partner for Fields compared to the #1 pick. Here is Poles with Florio and Simms:

Daniels would need to gain like 30 lbs of muscle. He takes hits like Tua. Almost every hit is massive, and it only takes one. The skill is there, he checks the box in most other categories, but the one concern is he was passing to 2x 1st round WRs, which makes things a lot easier. I like Nix, from all the games I have watched, I actually think Nix is QB2. If Williams comes in too short (under 6'1"), then I would actually go with Nix.

It is definitely possible, and would be pretty wild. The way both Poles and Flus talked, it sure felt like Fields is gone for sure. Then if they don't get a good feeling on Williams or Maye, then you almost have to do both. Fields would command significantly less value next year, and it seems really hard for the Bears to come back from their current stance. If I am Fields, I am not feeling good about my standing with the team.

Peter King retiring, this is his last article: Of course, he has one more nugget to put out: I suppose? Then I know nothing, lol. He believes Poles should trade down and get a haul.

Yeah, drafting the highest paid positions seems like the most efficient roster building, because you can get more quality in free agency on other positions while using draft capital on the most expensive ones. So you would be happy with any of those 5 listed + Newton or an Edge at #9?

It really depends on how they view Jones. It feels like a luxury pick if you got OT at #9, but at the same time, if they just paid Kmet, can you justify Bowers (I can) as TE2 in the top 10 with actual massive holes at other positions?

Ok, so you are willing to use #9 on OTs not named Alt and any of the top 3 Edge guys listed? I am tracking on JPJ. I would be willing to take him in the 15-20 range if the Bears traded down to that range and he was still on the board.

The last 5 #9s: Jalen Carter, Charles Cross (OT), Patrick Surtain, CJ Henderson, Ed Oliver.

So I was thinking, regardless if the Bears use #1 on a QB or trade down, they will have at least one pick in the top 10 to draft a non-QB. Knowing that, and with the assumption that 3 QBs will go in the top 10, what group of players must the Bears get at least one player from? For me, it is a group that includes MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Bowers, or Alt. With 3 QBs, there is a chance that all of them are gone at #9. If that is the case, would you be ok with someone else in this group? Someone like Turner, Verse, or Latu on the Edge? Fashanu? I would rather trade down if none of those 5 are there. Thoughts?

Yeah, the thumb thing is sort of concerning. He should be 100% healed by now. Hopefully it's just on for extra protection against reinjury.

No way, no 2024 2nd rounder, and Bijan is awesome, but swapping him for Herbert is the equivalent to a 3rd round pick. So only a 2025 1st, 2024 3rd, Bijan swap, and a 2026 2nd to move to 8? I know they tried to mimic the Carolina trade, but I would rather do Pitts and a 2024 2nd instead of the 3rd.

It's crazy to see how many picks the Bears can pick up with even 2 trade downs. One trade down nets at least an extra 2nd this year, and pretty much any other trade nets an extra 3rd or 4th. So they can easily end up with 2x 1sts, 2x 2nds, 2x 3rds, and 2x 4ths this year adding 2x 2nds and a 3rd. That would probably net 4-5 starters and 3-4 rotational players, and that would be after Free Agency. Talk about quality starters AND quality depth.

Oh for sure, I am just thinking they would want to have a trade in place either way coming out of the combine. With the larger than expected salary cap, teams that didn't have money for a new QB may now have the additional space to sign a vet FA where Fields may have been the only low cost option with upside. If they are trading the #1 pick, it will also be critical to get a trade down before free agency so the Bears know how many picks they will have to work with. My assumption is if Fields is traded, they will sign at least one top of the market FA at their position, maybe two. A new 4-yr deal would have zero impact beyond the length of a new QBs rookie deal. If they trade #1, I don't think they will go with any really high end guys, or if they do, it's for a max of 2 years.

Yeah, the organization has done him wrong, and multiple leadership groups too, which is really unfortunate. I agree he can do whatever he wants to do, but if his intent was blocking out the noise, there are a lot of ways to go about it that would bring less attention to the situation, not more, especially when he has his personal photographer still posting:

I thought the Fields news about him going overseas on vacation during the combine while unfollowing the Bears kind of interesting. First, if he didn't want to see or hear the noise, all he had to do was mute right? That was the first odd thing. Also, that doesn't stop him from being tagged in conversations, so that whole thing doesn't add up to me. We will see, but where there is smoke, there is usually fire. As he said, we all just want to get this over with so we can move on to other things. However, there are so many 2nd and 3rd order effects that we sort of need to know what is going on with QB so our mock drafts are more accurate! ?

Fant, Espensa, and Samuel make the most sense. Blackmon and Biadasz are just names in positions of need for me.

I am sure the position is more passive in nature. Like, overseeing players doing a drill, tracking reps, keeping them on schedule, etc.

The grading systems are so tough, especially if you are looking back at the totality of the season, and not on a snap by snap basis. What is hard to provide context to: if one OL fails on a play and it counts as a hurry/hit/sack, it obviously impacts his grade AND the play. If two or more OL fail on a play and it only sometimes counts as a hurry/hit/sack, the grading gets out of whack. If you use PFF, Fields was the most pressured QB in the NFL last year at 48.9%, no other QB with over 400 drop backs was over 45%. Zach Wilson was 2nd at 43.1%. Now you have to apply some context to that as well. Fields holds the ball longer than normal, causing some of that pressure, and some was also related to play design. At the end of the day, both sides can be right. Fields has some self-induced pressures AND the OLine needs to improve, especially at Center.

I think since Fields is under contract and still on the team that him staying would always be the most likely option from a betting standpoint since it takes nothing for that to occur. Any other option involves external partners, which is a huge unknown. That will change at the combine. If Williams comes in under 6'1", I think the odds of Fields staying increases. If something negative happens with Williams or Maye, Fields odds go up. Conversely, if something positive happens with the QB prospects, Fields odds probably go down.

I'm back. Was out of the net for a business trip. Did I miss anything? ?

NE drafted Mac Jones. I think they were able to do that when they had Brady, which allowed them to continually turn over the roster without having to sign guys to second contracts (Chandler Jones, etc).

I don't know if correlation equals causation here. I suspect defensive players will have a higher rate. I think it means good/great teams rarely draft in the top 10 (KC traded up for Mahomes), and rarely do teams with a top 10 pick improve enough from a bottom 10 team to a Super Bowl contender with the drafted player still on their roster. It makes sense. The Bears situation is super unique. This will be the first time a team that didn't finish with the worst record is drafting #1 overall without having to trade up for it.

Yeah, these are supposed to be the guaranteed hit guys. It's just interesting how few make it to a Super Bowl with their drafted team.

The best part, which some people are missing is, this really is a no-lose situation. Poles has had 2x get out of jail free cards, last year and this year. If they run it back with Fields, he will have a mountain of draft capital to play with (I would even expect a trade up at some point). If they go with Williams, his floor makes it fairly low risk and the QB clock is reset, allowing them to sign some bigger names and retain more of their guys as they hit FA.

For TEs, only 1 of 5 made it to a Super Bowl, that's 20% of the TEs drafted in the top 10. None won one, so zero. I don't know what is wrong there. Davis went to 2 with the 49ers, so a top 10 TE appeared with his drafted team in 8.3% of the Super Bowls since 2000. I was doing this from a drafted player perspective, not overall total appearances. Mahomes would really skew the stats for QB. He counts as 1 QB to win and appear out of the number of QBs that were also drafted in the top 10. This is the likelihood that a specific position drafted in the top 10 will win or appear in a Super Bowl.