adam

I hope defense looks better. RB was shocking to be honest. I did not expect it to be the best one

43 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Of those 43, only 2 (Eli Manning and Patrick Mahomes) have won a Super Bowl with their drafted team, which is 5%. Only 6 (Ryan, Manning, Newton, Mahomes, Goff, and Burrow) have appeared in a Super Bowl with their drafted team, ~14%. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team QB - 5% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 14% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Stafford won one with LAR, Leftwich was a backup with PIT when they won. So for Offensive Players, there have been 137 drafted in the top 10 since 2000. 17.5% have made a Super Bowl appearance with their drafted team, and 5.8% have won one with their drafted team. Summary: RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OFF - 5.8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 17% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team QB - 5% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 14% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team

39 Offensive Linemen have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Of those 39, 3 (Johnson, Okung, Fisher) have won a Super Bowl with their drafted team, which is 8%. Surprisingly 8 OLs have appeared in a Super Bowl with their drafted team, ~21%. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Next up QB, to close out the offense.

5 TEs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Vernon Davis - 3 Super Bowls, lost 2 with SF, won one on the roster in DEN. Kellen Winslow T.J. Hockenson Kyle Pitts Eric Ebron Small sample size, but only Davis has been to a Super Bowl, 0/5 = 0% Super Bowl wins, 1/5 = 20% Super Bowl Appearance. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team

For RBs, it is better for just the RB but not the RB+QB combo. 17 RBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. There were 2 Super Bowl wins (Lewis and Bush) with 4 total appearances (2-2) adding Gurley and Benson. What is crazy is in those 2 Super Bowls, they had Dilfer and Brees, both drafted by a different team. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team So far I have not found a top 10 RB or WR that was drafted by the same team as their QB who won a Super Bowl together, ouch. That is pretty wild.

You got Matt Ryan and Kurt Warner saying they should draft a QB and Ryan Leaf and Dan Orlovsky saying they should keep Fields. I am going to laugh when everyone is wrong and they sign Kirk Cousins lol.

These guys probably would've been cap casualties last offseason if not for the huge dead caps. Now with those more reasonable, they were no-brainer moves. It is nice to move on from them so early, because technically they could've kept them until they needed the money off the books, even into free agency. This would've prevented other teams from even contacting them or their agents about them.

It's hard not to be excited if the Bears go this route. Even if Justin doesn't work out, the team would be stacked and have multiple 1sts and 2nds in 2025.

Here is one way to look at it. Last year Poles said he had to be blown away by a prospect to keep the pick. He wasn't blown away by Stroud or Young. However, I bet he was blown away by Williams last year. Since then, Williams has lost some of his luster. Even then, he was so far ahead of the next guy that he is still the #1 pick, but he is no longer the second coming.

Oh yes, plus Scales and Marcedes Lewis are FAs. I assume bring Scales (36) back and with Cairo (32) would be the two oldest I believe.

I am working on doing all the other positions in the top 10 to see how they end up. It may just correlate the same way, which would ultimately mean the bad teams rarely become good in a timeframe where a top 10 pick is still on their team.

Technically they are still on the team until the league year ends and the new league year begins on March 13th. They have the two day tampering window (whatever that is for) before the league year officially starts that begins on March 11th. So more than likely, if the Bears are going to extend any of their own players, it will happen before March 11th.

$67M in cap space now (3rd most) > $55M effective cap (4th most). Here we go!

He was the last of the 2016 draft class. Jackson is expected to be released, he would be the last of the 2017 draft class. 2018 is already gone (Roquan), and 2019 is gone (Monty). Kmet and Johnson (if signed) would be the 2020 class.

I would say "projected to be better than" as he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet. The projections are very positive and he can still be a bust but odds are he will be at least good to really good. Defenses don't fear the Bears offense. Actually, you can tell the defenses dictate what the offense does when it should be the other way around. Outside of Justin's scrambling ability when they lose contain, Moore was the only threat.

Wow, I knew the officials were bad as we have experienced a ton of missed or phantom calls, but some of those holds were so blatantly obvious AND impacted the play. I always hated the calls away from or behind the play that had no bearing on the outcome of the play, but these are right there. In Week 18, the Packers were holding like crazy, yet never got called for it. So the lesson is keep holding or pay the refs.

Yeah, Shanahan dorked up the OT coin flip. It all comes down to the odds. If you get the ball first, you have a 0% chance to win on your drive. However, if you defer, there is basically a 33% chance the other team will score a TD, 33% chance they kick a FG, and a 33% chance they don't score. So unless they go for 2 and get 8 pts, you technically have a chance to win on your first offensive drive regardless of what the other team did.

Yeah, he is more Russ and Kyler than Mahomes. Some analysts have even said his quick release looks a lot like Rodgers. So he is basically Russell Rodgers or Aaron Murray.

I know there are some additional differences in the different routes they can go, but ultimately for 2025-2026, it seems like it comes down to essentially something like this: Plan A: Williams + $52M for: $24M Edge (FA) + $20M DT (FA) + $8M TE2/WR3 (FA) Plan B: Fields + 2024 1st + 2025 1st + 2026 2nd Both plans roughly have a $62M cap hit with 4 roster spots filled. * Assumption is 1st Round 2024 (#9) used on WR2, 2nd Round 2024 used on Center for both plans (Fields trade or trade down from #1), negating each other. The cost controlled vet like Moore would cancel out with a FA in Plan A as well (cap wise).

Here is the link: https://theathletic.com/5270481/2024/02/13/nfl-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-100/ His current top 10: 1. Caleb Williams 2. Marvin Harrison Jr. 3. Malik Nabers 4. Drake Maye 5. Brock Bowers 6. Joe Alt 7. Rome Odunze 8. Jayden Daniels 9. Olu Fashanu 10. Terrion Arnold

I will do some research tonight and break it down by position since 2000 using the top 10 picks (since we have 2).

They were 9-8 this year. I don't know. It is just odd to me that all these highly drafted WRs have achieved relatively nothing compared to other position groups. What I am wondering is if it is a value thing. Meaning, if you take a WR in the top 10, you are bypassing another position group that is more expensive, so you are getting less value out of that position. Basically WRs are overrated and overpaid.