adam

No way, the price would be too steep for someone who has yet to play a down in the NFL.

Wow, that almost looks like an annual draft order in reverse. Most of the perennial losers at at the bottom (which makes sense).

Lucky, First off, great work. With that being said, the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams are not always about talent and can become somewhat of a popularity contest. Additionally, I don't know how much impact drafts from more than 10 years ago have on today's draft strategies. With the internet, technology, and the shear amount of analysis that goes into the draft these days, I don't think you can compare the eras. Logically, the higher the draft pick, the better odds of that player being successful. I bet if you did an analysis of the entire draft, you would see the same trend between each of the rounds as well. The better the pick, the better chance at finding a star. I don't think it is necessarily tied to a specific draft pick either. It is not like right after #32 that all players are no longer first round talents. It also changes year to year. So all you can do, year in and year out is to take the best player available at a position of need for your team.

For the first round, it is going to be BPA out of OL, DE, and WR. Just get the best player out of those positions.

At this point, I would say Kendall Wright or Mike Adams at 19 would be brutal. For the other rounds, they are too random to pick one specific player, but I would just like to see BPA or a need area filled with every pick. I don't want any projects or players with past injuries selected.

Yeah, I wish there was a way to bold the title in the sticky. Maybe post on Soxtalk to get some members over there to sign up? I know a bunch have accounts but don't post here anymore.

6 more days until the draft. I just made my first changes dropping Adams out of the first round and adding Gilmore in.

Fat, weak, and lazy? No way he goes 19. 4 reps for a pro athlete weighing almost 200 lbs? http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/04/1...oke-and-mirrors

Mad, I would be happy with about 5 correct picks. There is always one screwball pick that throws off the entire round (or an early trade).

It would be interesting to compare draft boards from December/January and now to see how many and which players have jumped up the boards. I wonder how many of those picks actually worked out, or if the original assessments were better (more accurate).

I thought he was pretty spot on about DE, OLine, CB, DT, and WR as all need areas. I wouldn't, however have them in that order. Also, this last line of the article confuses me: So we lose Graham and Hurd, and acquire Costanzo, Weems, and Thomas, and we need help on Special Teams? http://www.suntimes.com/sports/11924965-60...-to-figure.html

People are just starting to realize what we already knew, that Cutler is a true gamer.

I would say Floyd has a chance to be there at 19. Looking at other team's needs, here are the teams that WR would be considered a top 3 need (MIN, CLE, MIA, BUF, ARZ, NYJ), so 6 teams before 19. Now he won't go to MIN or CLE because they will take Kalil, Blackmon, or Richardson. That leave MIA at 9, BUF at 10, ARZ at 13, and NYJ at 16. I doubt he goes in the top 10 with the other players available. So that leaves Arizona and NYJ. I think Floyd has a good shot at being there at 19.

I like those picks, but no O-Line? I know this is not an all-inclusive list, but kinda scary not to see any O-Line picks Phil should contemplate.

Kickoffs travel 70+ yards and the kicking team has a running start with essentially 10 special teamers who all can tackle and most are in position by the time the ball is returned. Punts are normally done with somewhat of a normal line for blocking and the center, so you are cutting down on the true special teamers to about 5 or 6. Additionally, punts are going 40-50 yards, so there is less time for the kicking team to get in place to defend against the return.

I say no, it only gets worse in the pro's.

I'm in as Cutler2Marshall46 Just FYI to those joining, type the League password over the greyed out password field, then hit + League.

Looking at data from about 10 different mock drafts, this is what I came up with: Players that will be gone by #19: Luck, RG3, Kalil, Claiborne, Blackmon, Richardson, Cox, Tannehill, Reiff * All these players were drafted in the top 10 over 80% of the time That leaves these players in order of their average mock draft position (highest draft position in parentheses) : Ingram, DE - 12.29 (7) Kuechly, LB - 12.57 (11) Coples, DE - 13 (7) Poe, DT - 13.57 (9) Floyd, WR - 13.71 (10) DeCastro, OG - 15.14 (9) Barron, S - 17.71 (14) Upshaw DE/OLB - 18 (12) Brockers, DT - 18.29 (11) Glenn, OL - 18.86 (13) These players had a mock draft position lower than #19: Kirkpatrick, CB - 20.71 (17) Gilmore, CB - 20.86 (15) Mercilus, DE - 21.71 (12) Martin, OT - 22.14 (13) Wright, WR - 24 (22) Adams, OT - 25.86 (10) Hightower, LB - 26.89 (24) Perry, DE/OLB - 28.71 (27) Hill, WR - 29.43 (19) Konz, C - 30.29 (29) Fleener, TE -32.43 (30) Based on those numbers, and picking at 19, we should be able to pick up someone from that first group (Ingram...Glenn) or have the luxury of dropping down to the mid-20's and picking someone from the 2nd group (Kirkpatrick...Fleener). Using the first group, here is my draft board: 1. Coples, DE (Need and BPA) ^ 2. Floyd, WR (Need and BPA) ^ 3. DeCastro, OG (Need and BPA) ^ 4. Ingram, DE/OLB (Need and BPA) 5. Poe, DT (BPA) ^ 6. Kuechly, LB (Future Need and BPA) 7. Glenn, OL (Need and BPA) ^ 8. Barron, S (Slight Need and BPA) 9. Brockers, DT (BPA) 10. Upshaw DE/OLB (BPA) Personally I would like to see Coples or Floyd. I think Peppers and Coples (especially with the UNC connection) could be special. Coples would have some of the best mentorship you could have, and playing in front of Urlacher and Briggs. For Floyd, he would give us a true #2 and possibly the best WR pairing the Bears have ever had. I don't believe CB is a need after all the depth we acquired, so I doubt we use a first rounder on CB. Other than Kuechly, I don't believe we would go LB either at 19. OL, DL, or WR in the first couple of rounds.

Ok, so I was thinking about our Left Tackle situation and thought I would take a look at the last five years of teams that made the Conference Championship games (20 teams) and see how many had a Pro Bowl Tackle. Out of the 20 teams, only 9 had a Pro Bowl Tackle, and one of those was an Alternate. So more than half of the teams did not have an Offensive Tackle (Left or Right) on their team that year. Going further, only 3 of 10 teams that played in the Super Bowl over the past 5 years had a Pro Bowl Tackle. This is sort of the reason why I would not go OT in the first round unless someone drops to us at 19. I think guys like Martin and Adams may be reaches and not a good value at 19. So what do you think? Here is the list: 2011 OL Tackle Pro Bowlers (NYG, NE, BAL, SF-1) Joe Thomas, Cleveland Jake Long, Miami D'Brickashaw Ferguson, NYJ Ryan Clady, Denver (Alt) Jason Peters, Philly Joe Staley, San Fran Jermon Bushrod, New Orleans 2010 OL Tackle Pro Bowlers (GB-1, PIT, CHI, NYJ-1) Jake Long, Miami Joe Thomas, Cleveland D'Brickashaw Ferguson, NYJ Matt Light, New England (Alt) Jason Peters, Philly Jordan Gross, Carolina Chad Clifton, Green Bay Tyson Clabo, Atlanta (Alt) Donald Penn, Tampa Bay (Alt) 2009 OL Tackle Pro Bowlers (NO-1, IND, MIN-1, NYJ-1) Jake Long, Miami Ryan Clady, Denver Joe Thomas, Cleveland D'Brickashaw Ferguson, NYJ (Alt) Jason Peters, Philly Bryant McKinnie, Minnesota Jon Stinchcomb, New Orleans David Diehl, NYG (Alt) 2008 OL Tackle Pro Bowlers (PIT, ARZ, BAL, PHI) Joe Thomas, Cleveland Jason Peters, Buffalo Michael Roos, Tennessee Jake Long, Miami Jordan Gross, Carolina Walter Jones, Seattle Flozell Adams, Dallas Chris Samuels, Washington Jammal Brown, New Orleans 2007 OL Tackle Pro Bowlers (NYG, NE-1, GB-1, SD-1) Matt Light, New England Jason Peters, Buffalo Joe Thomas, Cleveland Jonathan Ogden, Baltimore Marcus McNeill, San Diego Flozell Adams, Dallas Walter Jones, Seattle Chris Samuels, Washington Chad Clifton, Green Bay

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Some-p...ound-picks.html They list Coples, Floyd, Jenkins, Poe, and Martin. They make Martin sound like Chris Williams 2.0.

Yeah, if you are talking about 5 slots, you need to at least give up a 3rd rounder to move up in the first, a 4th rounder to move up in the 2nd, a 5th rounder to move up in the 3rd.

For the OLine, the subtraction of Omiyale helps a lot and you can almost consider Carimi an addition. We will definitely go OL and DL in the first three rounds shoring up those need areas.

I would be up for it as long as we had several options at 19 and felt like we could get that player at 24 (PIT), 25 (DEN), or 26 (HOU) while also picking up a late 3rd rounder or swapping some other picks. Another scenario would be swapping 1st's then moving into the end of the 2nd from the 3rd, essentially giving us a 1st and 2x 2nds and adding a 4th. Take Houston at #26 (700), they also have #58 (320) in the 2nd and #121 (52) in the 4th. They move up to #19 (875) in the first, move down to #79 (195) from the 2nd, and give up their 4th rounder, #121. We get #26, #58, and #121 and give up #19 and #79. 700+320+52=1072 875+195=1070, Pretty close in terms of draft value. New England is also an option at #27 as they have a bunch of picks, but they always seem to fleece people. Now if someone falls to us that we didn't expect to be there, I say we keep the pick unless we get an offer we cannot refuse.

He is a new DB on the Chicago Bears, played for NE and DEN; has started 15 games in his 4 year career (comparable to Bowman and more than Graham). A decent pickup for a backup DB.

Really hard to see us drafting a DB now. Looks more and more like OL, DL, and WR.