adam

OK, so I saw a graphic about this and had to look into it. Apparently, since 2000, there has only been a single Super Bowl victory that had a top 10 WR on the roster who was drafted by the team he played for in the Super Bowl. That is Mike Evans. There have been 33 picks in the top 10 used for a WR since 2000. It is ugly. Here are those 33 WRs, sorted by # of career receptions: 1 Larry Fitzgerald - Super Bowl loss (Kurt Warner) 2 Andre Johnson 3 Julio Jones - Super Bowl loss (28-3 thanks Shanny) 4 Mike Evans - Super Bowl win (Tom Brady) 5 Calvin Johnson 6 A.J. Green 7 Amari Cooper 8 Michael Crabtree 9 Plaxico Burress - played on winning team for NYG 10 Ted Ginn Jr. - 2x Super Bowl losses (w/ SF and CAR) 11 Roy Williams - Lions LOL! 12 Sammy Watkins - played on winning team for KC 13 Braylon Edwards 14 Travis Taylor 15 Mike Williams 16 Koren Robinson 17 Peter Warrick 18 Corey Davis 19 Ja'Marr Chase - Super Bowl loss 20 Jaylen Waddle 21 Tavon Austin 22 DeVonta Smith - Super Bowl loss 23 Darrius Heyward-Bey 24 Reggie Williams 25 Garrett Wilson 26 Drake London 27 David Terrell - Bear Down! 28 Mike Williams - Lions LOL! 29 Justin Blackmon 30 Troy Williamson 31 John Ross 32 Charles Rogers - Lions LOL! 33 Kevin White - Bear Down! So 5 Super Bowl appearance by 33 players, and a 1-4 record in the Super Bowl in the last quarter century. This does not look good at all. Also, only Jones, Chase, and Smith played in a Super Bowl with a QB drafted by the team. So 3 Super Bowl appearances, zero wins, by 33 players who were drafted in the top 10 who played with a QB drafted by the team. I know it seems convoluted, but if the Bears roll with Fields and draft MHJ or draft Williams and Odunze at 9, the odds of success are extremely low. This is a thing, right? Like that is too one-sided to not be a thing.

Oh I know, I just think it is silly to put a 9-8 team in the top 10 when there were 12 double-digit win teams.

That would be crazy, because Pitts is basically a 1st round pick. So to get Pitts + a 2nd would be insane. I would drive Fields to Atlanta myself.

Less on Purdy, you are correct. However, if you take the ball first in that situation, and you have 4th and 4 from the 9, you have to go for it. Also, once they had 2nd and 4 from the 9, they had 3 downs to get 4 yards and turtled after 2 plays. That 3rd Down pass play call was horrendous. If you go back to their final drive in the 4th. They had 2nd and 5 from the 35 and couldn't get 5 yards in two plays. Like the game is on the line, if they get that first down, they can milk the clock and win it in regulation. Instead they kick a FG and give Mahomes way too much time. I felt like in both instances, they needed to plan for 4 downs of use. Then after you kick a FG the first time, you have to go for it the 2nd time. Two times with 4th and 5 or less and you kick 2x FGs.

and we haven't had anyone do that since Cutler. Mitch rarely did it, every time we were down and we were getting the ball back with 2 minutes left, we almost already knew the outcome. A loss. I had the same feeling with Fields. He was pretty good in the 3rd quarter, but once crunch time came, he fell off the map.

What is wild about this is Purdy had the best 4th Quarter stats: 123.8 QB Rating, 10 TD, 3 INT, 10.3 Y/A in the regular season while Mahomes struggled with a 71.7 QB Rating, 4 TD, 3 INT, 5.4 Y/A. Super wild.

Houston is 5th, Green Bay is 6th. Come on, that is ridiculous.

Looking at some additional stats. There were 40 QBs to have 50+ passing attempts in 4th quarter this season. Here is where Fields ranked amongst those 40: 4th Quarter Splits (QB w/ 50+ attempts, 40 QBs): QB Rating: 39th (53.4) Comp %: 39th (51.1%) Y/A: 31st (6.0) TD%: 29th (3.3%) INT%: 39th (6.5%) Sack%: 32nd (10.9%) Fields was so bad in the 4th quarter that it would've been better to rush on every play than to attempt a single pass. 1 out of every 6 pass plays ended in a sack or INT. 62% of his dropbacks were a negative play. It really is absolutely ugly. This is what it looks like when teams forced him to be a passer. He was in a group of QBs that included Zappe, Siemian, Trubsiky, O'Connell, Wilson, Mullens, and Howell. Would you take any of those QBs over drafting a QB?

That's pretty wild considering they have the #1 and #9 pick. That alone would bump the team up a slot or two. Then consider some teams have to dump a ton of salary, like the Chargers and Saints. Those teams will be dropping. I was thinking 18-20 would be the most appropriate without knowing the QB situation.

Yeah, normally there is a Heisman finalist this year (or winner) that is leaving school the following year. Every finalist this year (Daniels, MHJ, Nix, and Penix) entered the draft this year, so there is no clear cut leader. Some guys may emerge, but those are high risk guys like Zach Wilson. If you had to pick a QB that is in this draft or projected to be in the next one, Williams is the clear leader. It is just going to be what type of QB do you want. Gunslinger - Williams, Prototypical Passer - Maye, Ultra-Mobile QB - Daniels, Winner/Leader - McCarthy, Productive System QB -Nix, Dynamic Thrower/Older/Injuries - Penix. The theory is if Fields is getting traded, it will happen before FA opens. Teams are going to want their QB plan figured out before then, especially because of salary implications. A trade is sometimes complicated compared to just signing a guy. Combine Feb 29th - Mar 3rd Free Agency opens - Mar 11th/Mar 13th.

Also, I was trying to envision what Fields would've done on the last drives. From previous games, it would've been a quick 4 and out, game over; a strip-sack, ballgame, or a bad interception, and the victory formation (for the other team). You can also mix in taking a bad sack in there (while holding the ball too long with receivers open). There is almost zero expectation of him leading a comeback to close out a game, especially if the defense allows a score that loses the lead.

If the Bears extend JJ, that would give them 3-4 blue chippers on defense (depending on how you view Edwards and Edmunds). On offense, at least 2, maybe 3 (Moore, Jenkins, and Wright?). I think guys like Kmet, Brisker, and Gordon are good, but not elite. Stevenson may get there, but not yet, same with Dexter. So 5-7 total. The Bears need at least 3-4 more and the QB needs to be one of them.

Oh, I am not denying his greatness. However, he could've scored a TD in regulation to win it, but didn't. He needed overtime and for his defense to hold SF to a FG or less and they did. He needed SF to miss an XP. So it wasn't completely dominant. Like I said, 12 points on drives longer than 20 yards. He got a 2nd chance to redeem himself and did it in OT against Chokahan. The Bears need someone to close out games, preferably in regulation. I want a top 10 QB close and late, not the worst.

If the Bears just add say Williams, Odunze, and a Center, DT, Edge, or S in the 2nd round, with all mid to low tier FAs, is this team that much better than other teams that also had 1st and 2nd round picks? Sweat (25), Edmunds (22), Moore (16), Kmet (11), and Davis (11) are the only players over 10M. So if you add JJ for 20-ish that's around 105M in your top 6. SF has 10 players over 14M and $111M in their top 4 players. KC has 7 players over 10M, and that includes Mahomes at 57M, which essentially counts as 2. Their top 3 make up 108M. So either way, it feels like to me the Bears are going to add at least 1 player to the 10M club beyond the JJ extension.

I get what Mahomes did at the end of regulation and in OT, that was impressive, but he was also gifted a TD after the muffed punt. A TD drive of 16 yards. So in regulation, he scored 12 pts with zero TDs besides that short TD, and SF had an XP blocked, which would've been the deciding point in the game essentially forcing KC to score a TD vs a FG at the end of the 4th. He threw a bad pick and should've had another if Gipson didn't get turned around. To me, it felt like SF lost this game more than KC won it. I have no idea why SF decided to play a ridiculous deep shell on both the final drive in regulation and in OT. It was just pitch and catch for Mahomes. They really made it too easy for him.

From Kurt Warner:

If we learned anything, we need a QB that can finish games and score in the 4th quarter. The Bears also need at least 2 more top tier playmakers on offense and 2 more top tier guys on defense. That would push some current guys down the depth chart, which improves the starter spot and the backup.

The team is void of "dudes", Jones is fine for depth, Billings is good, Dexter is improving, but they need an elite gut inside. With Jackson's and Whitehair's numbers coming off the books, they can easily extend JJ AND sign a top tier FA with ease.

Shanahan choked again. That 2nd half was terrible. Outside of 2 or 3 passes, Purdy was Mr. Screen. I don't know if he had a completed pass over 20 air yards. Kittle was held to 2 passes and 4 yards. If SF doesn't have McCaffrey, this team feels like a 8 win team for some reason. Even with the other weapons. Ed's son had 22 carries and 8 receptions, led the team in touches and yards for both rushing and passing. Shanahan is the new Shottenheimer. Has a great regular season record, wins some playoff games, but never wins the big one.

I would love either one. A 3-4 year deal would cover this "run".

If Williams is going to be a bust, he would be one of the most accomplished busts in NFL history selected at #1. There were huge red flags with recent #1s that were busts or not great. Williams has none of the normal red flags. He doesn't lack experience. He was not a one season wonder. If he comes in shorter than 6'1", then there would be his red flag. The improv stuff he does is what everyone gushes over with Fields, Mahomes, Allen, etc. I honestly would be more concerned with guys with lack of reps. The NFL has shown if you come in with low reps, you have a huge mountain to climb. You have to learn how to drive on the autobahn vs a side road. Young - The size of a minion, huge red flag or shall I say a small one? To me, he was always undraftable due to his size. Murray - 1 great season, 2 others less than 700 yards passing, 519 total passing attempts in college. Huge red flag for lack of experience. Winston - Only played 2 years of QB, 25-18 TD-INT Rate. Super alarming INT ratio, it never changed in the NFL. Bradford - 1 great season, in his Junior year, injured, only 562 passing yards and they still drafted him #1. An injured QB that keeps getting injured. He was always a huge red flag for injuries. So is their a recent #1 pick that came in as accomplished as Williams and ended up as a bust? 72-10 TD-INT ratio in his last two season with 21 additional rushing TDs with 8,170 passing yards over the last two years. He really has been super consistent for a long period of time. PCT: 64.5>66.6>68.6, Y/A: 9.1>9.4>9.4, QB Rating: 169.6>168.5>170.1. Can anyone show me a QB that was that consistent for 2+ years in college that was a bust in the NFL?

It is definitely interesting. It could be they are just hedging their bets. If he is awesome, they can point to their "based on the tape" eval. If he busts, they can say, oh well, my initial eval was not a full assessment, or something along those lines. It is almost like everyone is pulling back from the "generational" thing. He is continually liking a bunch of Bears tweets. It could be trolling, but he hasn't done it for other teams.

For Goff, with LA, he had 2x 4600 yard passing seasons, made the PB twice, and had 3 playoff appearance with LA. 6 seasons with a QBR over 50 (4 with LA). Murray had 3 straight seasons with 3,700 yards, 2 PBs, and was AP ORoY and had a playoff appearance. His career QB Rating is 92.2 4 seasons with a QBR over 50. Trubisky's best season was 3,223 passing yards and 24 TDs. That would be Goff's 8th best season and Murray's 4th. Mitch had 1 season with a QBR over 50.

I am trying to figure out some trade scenarios for Fields. I still like the 8>9 swap and a 2nd+late round pick from ATL. This one I got Williams, Bowers, Legette, Van Pran, Irving, Rouse, and Williams on offense and Bullard on defense. That is just the way the board fell out. This would be crazy if the Bears also signed Hunter at Edge and resigned JJ. Offense would be: Williams-QB, Moore-WR1, Samuel-WR2, Legette-WR3, Williams-WR4, Bowers-TE1, Kmet-TE2, Herbert-RB1, Irving-RB2, Johnson-RB3, Wright-RT, Davis-RG, Van Pran-C, Jenkins-LG, Jones-LT. Rouse and Borom backups. Defense would be: Sweat, Hunter, Billings, Dexter, Edmunds, Edwards, Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Brisker, and Bullard.

Another eval: