adam

Now back to Williams. As far as I can tell, he is the only QB I could find that had a PFF Grade over 90 for his last two seasons + QBR over 80 + 3500 passing yards the last two years + over 40 total TDs the last two years + over 30 passing TDs the last two seasons, and 5 or less INTs the last two seasons. None of the other QBs hit those marks two years straight. Fields didn't either season with his best total being 3,273 passing yds, which should've been a red flag. Burrow didn't do it. Lawrence didn't do it, and Hurts didn't do it. So Williams has had sustained success for 2 full collegiate seasons at a high level.

Yeah, the draft order instead of their draft pick #. I think it is less relevant that someone was picked at #12 vs being the 2nd QB selected (QB2). Hit rate is success with their drafted team. It is great that Geno and Mayfield have resurrected their careers, but Mayfield is on his 4th team, but has not had "sustained success". Goff got LAR to the Super Bowl, so he counts. For the younger guys, I went off what they have shown to this point. Stroud excelled as a rookie, which is rare. Love is in his 4th year, so he has to show that this year was not a fluke. Richardson has done nothing so far but could change that over time. These are as of today. If you did count Mayfield, then drafting a QB #1 is a no-brainer, that would be 5 out of the last 6, and 7 out of the last 9 if you include Baker. Also, the one out of the 6 is Young, who still could become a decent QB. QB2 is wild, it has Mahomes as the unicorn, Stroud who exceeded a ton of expectations, but a lot of teams had him as QB1. The only other guy in that group is Tua, and he seems very team dependent.

Sweat and Hunter? Wow, that would arguably be the most formidable duo since prime Dent/Hampton. Mack/Quinn would be close but Quinn was a liability against the run.

Here is how the selection order of QBs has played out since 2010. I only counted QB1s selected in top 3, then all the remaining QBs in the first round. I listed the teams next to the guys that have not been starter quality yet. Most of those teams were terrible. 12 QBs as QB1 selected in top 3: Bryce Young - CAR Trevor Lawrence Joe Burrow Kyler Murray Baker Mayfield - CLE Jared Goff Jameis Winston - TB Andrew Luck Cam Newton Sam Bradford - STL/LAR Mitchell Trubisky - CHI Blake Bortles - JAX 50% hit rate 12 QB2's Drafted in First Round: C.J. Stroud Zach Wilson - NYJ Carson Wentz - PHI Marcus Mariota - TEN Robert Griffin - WAS Sam Darnold - NYJ Tua Tagovailoa Daniel Jones - NYG Jake Locker - TEN Patrick Mahomes Johnny Manziel - CLE Tim Tebow - DEN 25% hit rate 10 QB3s Drafted in First Round: Trey Lance - SF Anthony Richardson - IND Justin Herbert Josh Allen Ryan Tannehill - MIA Blaine Gabbert - JAX Deshaun Watson Dwayne Haskins - WAS Paxton Lynch - DEN Teddy Bridgewater - MIN 30% hit rate 5 QB4s Drafted in First Round: Josh Rosen - ARZ Justin Fields - CHI Christian Ponder - MIN Brandon Weeden - CLE Jordan Love - GB 0% hit rate 2 QB5s Drafted in First Round: Mac Jones - NE Lamar Jackson 50% hit rate

Hoge has been pretty spot on in the past. He really does not like Williams. This is going to be interesting to say the least.

At this point, it is the same thing as Fields not improving (like Trubisky), but at least you would have a rookie deal to have the cap space to deal with it. It is an absolute crazy place to be. This is so unique an unprecedented. It is going to take a haul to trade up for Williams, and I wouldn't mind getting the haul if they go that route. I am good if they stick with Fields but unless they get something like this, I think they are going QB:

I have seen this mentioned a lot. It feels like it could also be one of those things that has correlation but not causation. So would Trubisky be any different of a QB if drafted in 2016 and Fox had him for 2 years? I highly doubt it. Is Fields better if he was never drafted under Nagy and his first year was under Getsy and Flus? Again, I doubt there would be much of a difference. There have been many posts on the socials pointing out the sack rate with Fields and all other CHI QBs during the same window and Fields has twice as many. Trubisky was a half field read QB. There was a hard ceiling that you could not predict until he got to that point and couldn't improve beyond it. The Bears realized that in 2019 and probably gave Trubisky one too many years to fix it. Fields is very similar, but his is quick reads and MoF throws. He reminds me of a pitcher that can't throw a slider to save his life and has to go back to his bread and butter curve even when a slider is needed. Fields is at or near his ceiling. It seems now that he can only improve by improving everything around him. That is a team that can make the playoffs but will never get beyond one playoff win or so. There are a lot of QBs in that tier. I would say a good portion of the league make up that group. At this point, if you know that, you might as well take your shot while you have it. The Bears roster is too good to finish in the top 5 again, they are trending away from the top 10, so if they are going to get a new QB, it's this year.

What's crazy is he got hurt in the last game the Bears beat the Packers (2018), and never was the same player since. The split is wild: Pre-Injury: 30 games, 8 INT, 3 TD, 21 PD Post-Injury: 70 games, 7 INT, 0 TD, 23 PD He had a little blip in 2022 finally getting some INTs, but outside of a few games in 2022, he really has done nothing for 65+ games other than be a guy on the field. He really has been a liability out there. As much as they talked up his leadership, there were the times he was telling younger players not to worry about tackling, so besides for being a nice guy, good with the media, etc, he probably was kept a year too long, but with cap restraints, there was nothing Poles could do. Everyone knew his tackling was bad, but his tackles dropped in half from 2022, he averaged only 3 tackles a game, no FF, and no TFL. Even PFF grades, he peaked at 93.2 in 2018, hit 76.2 in 2022, 67.0 in 2019, and was under 60 in 2023, 2021, and 2020. What is sad is he was known for his coverage skills and he was one of the worst Safeties in coverage this season (7th worst in man, 44th best in zone) for Safeties with at least 377 snaps at S.

Jackson posted several cryptic messages on social media, but all allude to him being gone from Chicago. So there is the first domino and Whitehair is probably next. Those moves will open up a ton of cap space and now we can project the need for a new FS in free agency or in the draft. Eddie started out hot, got paid and hurt. Unfortunately, he was a different player after the injury. He shied away from contact too much, and at times just seemed like the 11th guy on the field running around away from the play.

Based on contract values, it feels like getting the higher priced positions in the draft is better budgeting. Assuming the Bears have around $30M in cap space for FA spending (subtracting rookie pool, JJ extension at $20M, operating money $5M, cut Whitehair/Jackson), I think they could target some very solid starters in key positions without breaking the bank on one guy. I don't think they are there yet to drop $20-25M on a vet and go all in that year. That feels like 2025-2026. This year it would be DT or Edge but I think Poles targets the Edwards-type deals. Something like this: Using OTCs player valuation: 1. C - Brown for $4M 2. TE2 - Fant for $6M 3. FS - Dugger for $6M (or restructure Jackson's cap down to $11-12M) 4. WR3 - Samuel for $5.5M 5. Edge2/3 - Epenesa for $5M 6. DT - Jefferson or Jones for $6M With the cap only being the top 51, the Bears can obviously bring in a bunch of $1M guys without impacting the cap. You can also expect 1 or 2 other guys at 2-3M per as well on one-year deals, probably WR4/5, KR/PR, Safety depth, DL rotation, and maybe even RB (Ekeler's OTC Valuation is only $5M per year). Thoughts?

Yeah that was sort of a filler position for the extra 1st rounder in 2025, it could be DT or Edge.

Those are not the final stats. Here they are: Sanders: 298-430, 69.3%, 3230 yds, 8.5 Y/A, 27 TD, 3 INT; Rushing 111- (-77) yds, 4 TD Williams: 266-388, 68.6%, 3633 yds, 9.4 Y/A, 30 TD, 5 INT; Rushing 97-142 yds, 11 TD QBR does factor in rushing and sacks. Williams ended up with an extra TD per game, which is a pretty big deal. Sanders is an intriguing prospect, but that was his only year at QB, so he only has 430 pass attempts, which would have an extremely high bust rate. He went back to school to pad his stats and he should be one of the top picks in 2025. He is sort of overshadowed by his coach.

Oh yeah, I was trying to keep it simple for comparison sake. As you move down, you are going to accumulate a ton more draft capital.

As Mongo said, 1 slot in this top 10 is huge. It might be the difference between getting Odunze or Bowers or missing out on both by one pick.

Yeah, you are spot on, for Option 2 and 3, I added #38 from TEN for Fields as a ballpark draft slot: Option 1 - Fields + MHJ (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st (Fields + WR2 + Center + New OT) Option 2 - Williams + #38 -> (#1) (Williams + Center) Option 3 - Maye (#2) + #38 + #40 + 2025 1st = (Maye + WR2 + Center + New OT)

Is it me, or are these the main 3 options for Poles? Obviously there can be more trades but with just a single trade down with WAS, these seem like the paths Poles can go. Pick #9 is in play for all options so it is omitted, these are the differences in each route: Option 1 - Fields + MHJ (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st (Fields + WR2 + Center + New OT) Option 2 - Williams (#1) (Williams) Option 3 - Maye (#2) + #40 + 2025 1st = (Maye + Center + New OT)

I am not saying money is a problem, but it is a huge consideration, and in order to have sustained success, you have to look out and plan 3-5 years out. If every contract was a one year deal, sure no problem, but some contracts are 4-5 years. Poles obviously has a road map and the entire path is predicated on players and their contracts. I honestly think Poles never envisioned being in this position. He was planning on going into Year 3 with Fields as QB in his 4th season with 2x new 1st round draft picks on the roster. Getting the #1 overall pick has changed things. Now he has two of the best options a GM can have. Keep rolling with the current QB and load up on picks or roll the dice, draft a new QB and reset the QB timeline. Drafting a rookie QB does buy him 3 years of a small QB cap hit. If he goes with Fields, he knows that he has to pay that big money 3 years sooner (in 2026) but would have more players on rookie deals. He can make it work either way.

What if ATL was willing to do something along these lines: 1. CHI gets #8, #43, #79 2. ATL gets #9, Justin Fields The difference in the picks and slot would equal Pick #29 (late first rounder) So the Bears move up one slot to #8, then get ATL's 2nd rounder and their 2nd 3rd Rounder. Atlanta moves down one slot in the first and gets Justin Fields. They got #79 for Calvin Ridley, so basically that plus their 2nd rounder (#43) and one slot in the first round for Fields. That would gives the Bears #1, #8, #43, #75, and #79 in the first 3 rounds. Atlanta would have #9, Fields, and #74

I think Fields situation is going to come down to financials, that will be the trigger. If the Bears tag or resign JJ, even with cuts of Whitehair and Jackson, they would be up against the cap with a Fields pay raise. So basically the Bears would have to run this back with no new FAs other than vet minimum roster fillers and new rookies. It is doable, but you need to stock up on early picks to replace your expensive vets. The Chiefs cap is comical next year. Mahomes is $57M, Thuney is $26M, Taylor is $24M, Kelce is $15M, Reid is $14M, MVS is $14M, and Omenihu is $11M. No other player is over $5M. So basically, the new framework with the outrageous QB salaries is $50M QB, 2x players in the $20M range, then 4-5 in the $10M range, then every other player on a rookie deal or making under $5M. The Bears ironically have a similar structure already, just without the QB salary, Sweat and Edmunds - $20M, Moore, Kmet, and Davis - $10M, and we are assuming JJ comes in under Edmunds but over Moore. That would be 6 non-QBs making over $10M just like the Chiefs. SF has low QB contract structure with 10 over $10M (1 even over $30M), but don't have to pay a QB right now. That is the other model. If the Bears don't make a trade before FA opens, but start signing 2-3 guys to $10M deals, we sort of know which way they are going because they can't afford those guys if Fields is going to get paid. 6-7 guys $10M or more = big QB contract 10-11 guys $10M or more = small QB contract

I doubt he would command anything beyond a late first, so it looks like the only two realistic options would be: ARZ - 27th, it's their 2nd first rounder, and they pick again at 35. PIT - 20th, could decide to move off Pickett/Rudolph/Trubisky, already a playoff team, just need a better QB.

I did add some of that for the first few picks, but not as much from 6->

Honestly, Nate Tice is pretty good. He has been critical of Fields too, and by this mock, thinks Maye is the way to go. I don't necessarily agree going Maye at #1 when the entire metaverse knows WAS would love Williams. Make them work for it. This could be the whole smoke screen they are doing right now with Williams, who knows. I am just not counting out Maye as I don't want to have the same feeling I had when I heard Trubisky's name, that was such a disappointment. The good thing is Maye had a lot more reps than both Trubisky and Fields in college and is only a RS Sophomore, is only 21 and would be just turning 22 before the start of the season. This is pretty cool to read about Maye: "Maye’s arm talent gives his offense access to the entire field. His work in the quick passing game provides his receiving options the opportunity to gain yards after the catch. Maye’s touch and arc on passes are impressive. He does a good job layering passes over the middle of the field underneath defenders." Well crap, these sites has him as QB1: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10089376-drake-maye-nfl-draft-2024-scouting-report-for-unc-qb https://www.profootballnetwork.com/drake-maye-draft-scouting-2024/

Just another data point, Nate Tice (son of Mike Tice) does a lot of player analysis, and last year he like Stroud going #1 as his #1 rated QB. This year, he says Maye is the clearcut #1. In his latest mock, he has the Bears taking Drake Maye at #1: https://sports.yahoo.com/2024-nfl-draft-top-10-mock-has-jayden-daniels-going-to-patriots-and-3-other-qbs-make-big-board-of-40-prospects-including-jj-mccarthy-153609292.html This is going to instantly bring up Trubisky comparisons, which as a fan, are hard for me to separate.

1 = 2+2nd+late 3rd or early 4th+future 1st 1 = 3+2nd+ early 3rd+future 1st 1 = 4+2nd+ future 2nd+future 1st 1 = 5+2nd+ future 2nd+future 1st+4th rounder 1 = 6+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st and blue chip vet 1 = 7+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st + blue chip vet + 4th rounder 1 = 8+2nd+ 2x future 1sts OR future 1st + blue chip vet + 3rd rounder Last year Bears went 1 = 9 +2nd (61) + future 1st + blue chip vet (Moore) + future 2nd rounder

Atlanta at 2? Washington at 2 or Atlanta at 8? OK, I am assuming WAS, just a typo. Going off the more current trade value chart, #1 is worth 1000, #2 is worth 717, #40 is worth 149, and #94 is worth 41 = 907 + 2025 1st (121 = lose 1 round of value, average pick value) So 1000 (CHI) < 1028 (WAS) So I would say that would make sense. Where are you getting #94 from? That would be the 3rd to last pick in the 3rd round before comp picks. I think WAS has #101 in the 3rd from SF for Chase Young. That would knock the trade above down to 1021.