adam

SEA FAs of interest: 1. Evan Brown, C, 28, played 91.3% of snaps 2. Noah Fant, TE, 54.6% 3. Leonard Williams, DL, 30, 76.2% 4. Damien Lewis, G, 27, 88.6% CAR FAs of interest: 1. Brian Burns, Edge, 26, played 77.2% of snaps 2. DJ Chark, WR, 28, 67.1% 3. Jeremy Chinn, S, 26, 27.1%

It depends if the Bears want to use draft capital or cap on that position. With both Herbert and Johnson still on rookie deals, they may go FA. Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler could be options. Now that the Bears have Waldron and Brown, I am going to look for FAs from Seattle and Carolina as those two would be intimately knowledgeable about guys from those teams.

Absolutely, just posting as they come in, there will be a lot of flip flopping. Here is George Kittle giving a vote of confidence towards Fields:

I think bringing in Warren was the game changer, there is a different level of separation than previously existed.

Kizer had 695 passing attempts and only played football for 2 seasons. That was all hype because of Notre Dame. For college he even had a pedestrian TD:INT ratio of 47-19 and averaged only 232 yds/g. That translates to 180 some yards per game in the NFL and fringe NFL backup, especially with so few reps in college. He had bust written all over him.

Lol, you know you are there when you are trying to determine what alcohol or drink "did it to you".

That's the thing. Aikman should've never been a HoFer, he never was an All-Pro, never won the MVP, and led only 1 4QC in 15 playoff games. His career stats are terrible, in 165 starts: 199 Y/G, 165 TD, 141 INT and a QB Rating of 81.6. He was on one of the most stacked teams of all time. He started his career 0-11 his rookie year. Even in his best season, he would fall 300+ yards short of the Bears Franchise record in a season. What is kind of funny is, he had Michael Irvin, Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek, and Emmitt and Aikman never passed for over 3,500 yards. That Dallas team was so odd. They had double digit wins for 6 years straight from 1991 to 1996, yet their best record was 13-3. Having the best O-Line in football, one of the top 5 RBs of all-time and a top 10 Receiving Corps sure helps.

and on Flus lol.

Just posting info as it comes in. Take it for what it is worth:

My Top 15 Bears Big Board (with notes): 1. Caleb Williams, QB (no-brainer, if Bears are drafting #1, you pick CW) 2. Marvin Harrison Jr, WR (if the Bears trade down and they are not drafting a QB, MHJ has to be #1 on their big board) 3. Drake Maye, QB (If they Bears trade down and are still looking for a QB, he would be the pick over MHJ) 4. Malik Nabers, WR (If the Bears trade down and the top 3 are gone, it's between him and Brock Bowers for me, but WR2 is such a hole) 5. Brock Bowers, TE (He is neck and neck with Nabers, I may switch this after the combine) 6. Rome Odunze, WR (If the top 5 are gone, you take Odunze) 7. Dallas Turner, Edge (When those top 6 are gone with maybe Daniels, I could see the Bears moving back, but if available, I would go Turner) 8. Laiatu Latu, Edge (If Turner is gone, Latu is next) 9. Joe Alt, OT (Right now he is my first pick at OT, which is more of a luxury pick as an upgrade, not filling a huge hole) 10. Jared Verse, Edge (If the other 2 Edge are gone, after Alt, I would go back to fill the Edge need with BPA) 11. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT (If the 3x Edge are gone and Alt, then it is Fashanu time) 12. JerZhan Newton, DL (He would be my first DT right here, depending on combine, he may move up) 13. J.C. Lathan, OT (Last OT before the skill level drops off a little, would drop if JJ is not signed as need for CB would be greater) 14. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB (Dependent on JJ status, but more of a luxury pick if JJ is signed, he may go up if JJ is not signed, or down if he is) 15. Brian Thomas Jr, WR (He would jump ahead of McKinstry if JJ is signed, but not higher as this time. This is through a Bears lens assuming the guys above them are gone. I am really trying to stick to QB, WR, TE, Edge, DL but it's hard when their are elite talents at OT and CB sitting there. With 2 picks, the Bears can maybe afford to go with a luxury pick at OT (sliding Jones to swing tackle) or CB and having him compete with Stevenson or filling JJs spot. Did I miss anyone? Thoughts?

Here is my take on that. If you have 3+ teams offering you massive hauls for #1, you keep the pick. That many teams are reinforcing their belief in Williams. If you only have Washington, or maybe one other desperate team, then you take the best offer and trade down for the haul because just because CAR was willing to offer a haul for Bryce Young doesn't mean he was worth that much. So simply put: 1. Draft Williams if 3+ teams are offering massive hauls. 2. Trade #1 pick for haul if only one or two teams have offers in for #1. Then whatever they do next will be determined by what they did first. I think if they trade the #1 pick, and it's to WAS, and they only move to #2. There is a chance that Poles will trade back a 2nd time (if they are rolling with JF1) and end up with multiple 2nd rounders in 2024, and multiple 1sts in 2025. That would be insane. 3 2025 1st rounders!

There really is a lot of potential, but at the end of the day, draft capital is just that, capital. Unless whatever you use it on has a high Return on Investment, then it's a wash. So it does give Poles more bullets, but he can't miss on too many. I ultimately think his experience with Mahomes, then Fields will give him one of the best perspectives in the game about the QB position going forward. Also, Cunningham was with Hurts and then got to see Fields. Those are two unique experiences but provide a common data point in Fields. With all of that, I think they know which way they are going unless an nuclear offer comes in.

Pix, We can definitely do that, like we have in the past with our collective mock drafts where a few of us had different teams and then over the course of a month, each of us made our pick up to 32. I think we could easily do a top 15 Big Board, which should include 2 new Bears in 2024.

That would be insane. Washington is the worst team in the league, and then they trade away 2 additional 1sts to move one spot? So now they have Williams, cool, but no 1st round talent around him for 3 years? Also, if you have multiple teams offering something comparable, it shows how much they believe in Williams too, so you almost have to consider keeping the #1 if multiple teams are offering that much. If it's only Washington, then I think you take it, and press your luck with Fields or Maye. Washington probably ends up with a top 5 pick the next two years (top 3 in 2025 almost guaranteed), so you have two more years of hedging your bet on a QB. It will be interesting to see how Carolina does this year without a 1st rounder. They have a weak roster, their best player was a 35 year old WR, and I doubt they attract many top end FAs (who would want to go there?). So they may end up with another top 5 pick in 2025 (makes the Bears 2nd rounder be a top 37 pick). Even if Young improves, they will be out of his rookie deal by the time they are even average again. This would seem to be the trend for any bad team that trades up and gives up multiple picks.

So I was looking back as far as the 2017 draft to see where QBs were slotted on the Draft Big Boards prior to the drafts. This one site takes a collection of most major big boards on the internet and collates them into a consensus board. I really like this as it takes out some biases and other factors. Some big boards are BPA, others are sort of slotted like their projected draft positions. It makes me sick that the Bears drafted Trubisky, AND traded up for him no less. On the Consensus Big Board for 2017, Trubisky was ranked 13th, Watson was 15th, and Mahomes was 22nd (which is crazy looking back). Myles Garrett was #1. Looking back at the most accurate draft projections, basically the top 5 mocks had Jamal Adams, Solomon Thomas, or Jonathan Allen going to the Bears, not Trubisky. On predicted a trade with Cleveland, where Cleveland drafts #1 and take Garrett, then trades with the Bears to move up to take Trubisky at #3. The Bears move back to #12 and get Watson. That would've crazy. In 2018, the highest QB was Sam Darnold at #3. #1 was Saquon Barkley. In 2019, Josh Allen was #3 with Nick Bosa being #1. In 2020, Joe Burrow was #2 with Jeff Okudah being #1 In 2021, Trevor Lawrence was #1, Fields was #4 and the 3rd QB. In 2022, Malik Willis was #14, with Aidan Hutchinson at #1. In 2023, Bryce Young was #1, Stroud was #3 behind Anderson. Currently Caleb Williams is #1 with Maye at #3, and somewhat surprising to me, Daniels at #5. Here is the link, you can see all the drafts here: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024

We sort of thought about this, but now it was said. Just some dudes opinion, but it does make sense because the Raiders think Getsy is one of the top 32 OC's in the world if they hired him. Getsy was Davante Adams' WR Coach early on his career, so I am sure he got a vote of confidence from him.

There is a reason why I post a lot of stats, and try to look at them from different points of view. I lean on stats more than reporting and media, because at the end of the day, they are the result of the player. Now the end result is not always his fault (INT due to WR), but for the most part the stats are as accurate of a depiction as we are going to get for a player than anything else. They are not perfect but they are the strongest indicator of success or failure that we have in sports.

Guys, you both have been right and wrong before, I have too, it's ok. I can post about someone having a 300 yard game to support something I am posting about, but then Grizz comes in and reminds me that 120 of those yards were in garbage time. Everything has context and nuance, and we only ever know 50% or so of what is really going on unless someone on here is inside Halas Hall. I try to post interesting info I find and discuss. I am wrong a lot, called out a bunch. It's all for fun. I laugh to myself at some comments, I disagree with others. Either I engage when it is counter to what I think and I try to provide evidence or I don't engage at all.

Here is the thing with the Fields vs Williams vs Other QB debate. I think no matter what direction the Bears go, they are a playoff team. If the Bears get a historic haul to trade out of the #1 pick, they will take it. If they don't get that type of offer, they probably go with a QB at #1, or even trade down and draft one later. If the Bears go into 2024 with Fields, they win at least 9 games, and probably as high as 11. I think if they go with Williams, for his rookie year, the floor may be 8, but the ceiling is around 12. If they go with someone like Maye, I think the floor is a little lower, 7-8 wins, and the ceiling is probably around 9-10 for his rookie year.

Luke Getsy to the Raiders, I assume they are out of the running for Fields, but maybe still for the #1 pick trade. So either the Raiders think Fields was the problem or they are batshit crazy.

It will be a top 5 (easiest) no matter what.

I think the Bears are a year away. They haven't had 1st rounders for so long because of Trubisky and Mack that the foundation was bare.

That is a hilarious trade. I was figuring #2, a 2nd rounder, a 2025 1st, and something else (player or another pick).

What is wild is she is on a bunch of different outlets and Fox Sports. Like they are actually paying her a salary to do that? Why? What are her credentials? I don't mind females in sports media, but unless it is someone like Cynthia Frelund who is doing analytics with math models, I would rather they stick to the sideline reporting and basic sportscasting.

Their roster was strong enough to survive that. One other thing, they absolutely fleeced Carolina without having to give up a 1st for McCaffrey. They then had a top 5 O-Line, top 3 RB, top 5 TE, and a top 10 WR Duo in Deebo and Aiyuk. Couple that with a top 5 defense and you can whiff on a pick like that, especially when you hit on a 7th rounder that is good enough and predictable.