adam

For Fields to hit Williams high numbers, he would have to improve this offseason by 28%, to hit Williams low numbers Fields would have to improve by 12%. So what are the odds that Williams hits his high number, or his low number, and what are the odds that Fields hits the 28% and or the 12%. Poles is going to go with the more likely probability, whatever he determines that to be.

If Williams drops by 20%, here would be his average pro numbers per game: 251 yds/g (4,273/season), 2.2 TD/g (38/season), 0.46 INT/g (8/season). 4,273, 38 TD, 8 INT If he drops 30%: 220yds/g (3,736/season), 1.9 TD/g (33 TD/season), 0.5 INT/g (9/season) 3,736, 33 TD, 9 INT The INTs for him were so low that 20 or 30% don't move it too much, so I would say those could increase by 1 or 2 more just based on other factors, 17 game season (longer), playing teams twice, etc. Other than that, those are honestly realistic numbers just based off a generic projection.

For Bagent, simply D2. He got a lot of reps, but the opponents were so much slower, weaker. I don't know any other way to equate it other than his games were more like a friendly or a scrimmage. So you know what he can do, I would say Bagent's ceiling and floor are much closer together than Fields. The only way for Bagent to improve significantly would be for the rest of the team to get better around him thus making things easier for him. Wentz was good for a year and sort of flamed out. Ironically, he was good on a team that won the Super Bowl without him. So he probably wasn't that good to begin with. Lance was never going to be good, or if he does, he would need 2-3 years of a ton of playing time. He hasn't gotten that, and you can only improve so much in practice. Purdy had 1467 attempts in college, which is great D1 volume. You sort of know what a QB is after 1000 attempts or so. They don't change that much. He is clearly a game manager. In college, his last two years, he played very pedestrian. His college career average yards per game was 253. That would translate to a 200 yard passer in the NFL on average. He is averaging 226 yards per game in the NFL in the perfect situation. I figure he will settle in to be a 220-230 yard per game guy for his career. The one thing that carried over for him is the INTs, he had basically a 2.5% INT rate in college and that is what he has in the pros. That is not bad, but not elite. Williams has a 1.2% and 21% of his career INTs came in one game. Rodgers has a 1.4% for his career. Looking back, I missed the eval on Mahomes. I listened to the media and didn't look at the numbers. I kept seeing he was careless with the ball, and he had a ton of picks. Nope. His last year in college he had a 1.7% INT rate and for his college career it was 2.1%. He had 1349 attempts in D1, check. He had some monster games, check. He had a high TD rate, check. Everything carried over to the pros, its comical. He averaged 351 passing yards per game for his college career. I only used his best season above. He is down to 296 in the NFL, down 15.7%. He had 2.9 TD/g, down to 2.3 in the NFL, down 21%. So Mahomes isn't doing anything that couldn't be projected. Take his college numbers and reduce by 15-25% and you have his pro numbers. That is what he is doing. What we don't know is how far they will fall. Every player drops, how much is the question. Elite guys are under 20%, or guys that are game managers that have been very consistent in college over several years. Then you got tier 2 guys in the 20's to 30%, then everyone else above 30%.

Nope, he pulled out, no pun intended.

I think Fields can be a top 10 QB, but in my opinion, he would almost need to sit for a year as a QB2 (which I doubt ever happens), and allow him to just concentrate solely on improving his weaknesses. Even without that, he can marginally improve anywhere. If Fields comes back, with the new coaching staff, and new weapons, he will be better. I just don't know how much. It is such a fascinating situation because they Bears are weighing so many variables that in the end, I don't think you really can go historically wrong. Like if the Bears draft Williams, at worst he is a taller Kyler Murray. If they keep Fields, at worst, he is the same player with better surroundings. Either one makes this a team with at least a winning record and the cusp of the playoffs. The flip side is what is the ceiling? That is the biggest question. Can the new offensive coaches unlock something in Fields that has not been unlocked by the last two staffs? If they can, what is the new ceiling? For Williams, can they translate his success and make it work in the NFL framework in 4 months, and what does that potential look like? Mahomes sort of nullified the QB record in college, and because conferences vary in terms of competition level, it's hard to equalize that. So I have actually never used that in comparing prospects as far as I know. What I was implying was the volume again. That has always been a concern of mine and rarely do QBs with such low volume in terms of passing attempts succeed in the NFL. Mainly because you really don't know who they are yet. Fields really got screwed by the COVID year. Williams threw 481 more passes in college than Fields. It took Fields almost 2 years in the NFL to hit that number. 241-267 is the correct range, it was a typo. That is the most likely projection of yardage based on the reduction in yardage by percentage from college QBs to the NFL. He could be worse, but 225 seems like the absolute lowest, but he could also be higher, somewhere in the low 280s, which would put him at 4,800 passing yards on the season. The median is 254 which is 4,318 in a 17-game season or 4,064 in 16 games assuming they rest him in Week 18 for the playoffs. For weaker competition, I am saying Ohio State plays weaker opponents compared to the Chicago Bears. Fields had a stacked offense in Ohio State and he played weaker opponents than he has seen playing with the Bears. However, outside of 4-5 games (both Clemson games), he hasn't really dominated the competition with his arm. So why would anyone expect him to do that in the NFL, especially with guys like Mooney and Pettis?

Yeah, I can see him going to PHI at 22 or even ARZ at 27 (their 2nd 1st rounder).

As a media member, I find it funny that you have to justify your existence, and when you get something right, you are patting yourself on the back. In most cases, you have a 50% chance of being right on every prediction on whether a player or team will be good or not good.

Most kids want to play for their favorite team growing up, so I am sure he would like to do that, but few do. Joe Burrow was selected #1 by Cincy who had the #1 overall pick. So if he wants to be selected by Washington, there is some work to do. Just say they work out a trade with the Bears to move up to #1. That is at least taking a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd. So now Williams goes to a 4-win team with no 1st rounder next year, with the worst defense in the league, and an offensive line that allowed 65 sacks. That is the David Carr situation. Oh, and he would have a 3rd Year QB who threw for 3,946 yards sitting behind him. Looking back at their schedule, they were close to going 0-17, every win was by one score or less. Dan Quinn is the head coach. He is a solid HC, but not an upgrade over Riverboat Ron. By the time that team gets fixed, Caleb will be a 35-year old journeyman making Klik-Klok videos (the new TikTok in 2035) in a hologram. The one place where Caleb can safely go and not succeed is Washington in my opinion. They may have the most cap space and will have the same amount as the Bears after Jackson and Whitehair are cut, but if I am a free agent, I would take less money to go somewhere else than to go to Washington. In a way, this makes the #1 pick even more valuable, because now the Bears can tell Washington that they are trading #1 to some other team that is taking Williams.

If they do trade Fields and he excels somewhere else, that doesn't necessarily mean if the Bears held onto him, he would've done the same thing here. Sometimes guys just need some new scenery, maybe get knocked down a rung, a reality check. I am trying to look at it from a broader perspective in terms of where a player's ceiling and floor could be. To me, Fields never got to the level of play in college that Williams did. Fields best year would be Williams 3rd best. The volume was just not there from Fields. In his only full season, in 14 starts, Fields only had 4 games with more than 240 passing yards. Does that sound familiar? He did that with a WR Corps of Olave, Wilson, and Williams, and Dobbins at RB. He only averaged 233 passing yards a game with that group of WRs. So if he only averaged 233 yards per game in college with weaker competition and that group of receivers, what did anyone expect him to do with Mooney, ESB, Pettis against NFL defenses? LMAO! Guess how many times Justin hit 240 yds in his first 28 NFL starts? 3 times. Stats don't necessarily perfectly correlate, but rarely have I seen them go UP in the NFL. Remember Mitch? In his best season in college, he averaged 288 passing yards a game. In 2018, he peaked at 230 yds a game, but is down to 181 for his career. I thought the percentage drop was interesting. Guys with a ton of yards have more to lose, so I think it is a little skewed the higher you go, so Mahomes normalized (using all college numbers) would be only down 16%. Either way, just looking at the 5 guys below, all went down in the NFL. So why did the Bears think Fields production would go up? 262 - Fields (Jr Year) (167 for NFL career) -36.3% 288 - Trubisky (Jr Year) (181 for NFL career) -37.2% 306 - Watson (253 for NFL career) -17.4% 315 - Lawrence (Jr Year) (235 NFL for career) -25.4% 421 - Mahomes (296 for career) -29.7% 324 - Williams (So Year) >>> (projected range: 241 yds - 267 yds per game)

He liked a Chicago realtor's post with some nice views of the city and a price for the apartment.

That was quick:

I don't deny that everyone is saying that because that is the popular opinion. However, they are going in with the information that they have, and most, if not all of them don't work at Halas Hall. I am also in that camp but it just seems like what Poles setup last year. I could be totally wrong and they go sign Kirk Cousins. We don't know if Vegas just offered up Crosby+a historic haul for #1 to pair Williams with Kingsbury? or what other offers are on the table. I still think there is a chance that they trade the #1 if the price is right, but it's high.

Not if we trade the #1 pick.......

Actually, there is one more layer to this, and it may be the most important aspect when you are talking about the logistics of it. If Fields kills it with Atlanta, Poles and Flus can blame Getsy!! Seriously. So with Williams, all he can't do is become a bust and Poles for sure will be safe for several years. If Fields stays the same or is worse somewhere else, they can say, see it was him. So they have an out basically on 75% of the outcomes. The only one they can't overcome is the bust one, and that would apply with any QB, not just Williams. So in reality, drafting a QB and trading Fields provides them with the best odds for long term success. The odds of Fields all of a sudden becoming significantly better with a 3rd Offensive staff is very low. Those are probably the lowest odds of any outcome.

It interesting is listening to just general Senior Bowl coverage, or other team's coverage as it is very unbiased opinions about the Bears (except NFC North Podcasts/etc). The consensus is Bears will take Williams at #1, and that almost seems like a fact. They are talking more about where Fields could potentially go, and how much it will cost. Teams like Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Vegas are the 3 most popular destinations. When you look at their fanbase, most are super excited to get Fields and feel like he was given a raw deal in Chicago.

Yep, compared to WAS who basically missed out on all the coaching hires, had OCs turn down the job and stay with their current teams. It makes sense.

So the Bears essentially have 2x OCs (have called plays before), and multiple position coaches and assistants that have been the primary position coach before. In the past, the Bears would have to hire a parking lot attendant to be a position coach, and a position coach to be a Coordinator. Not this year. Even on the defensive side, Washington, the new DC, has already been a DC and Asst HC before.

Now Jason Houghtaling (love the name) from the Titans as the Assistant OL Coach. He was the Titans OL Coach. This coaching staff is stacked, super impressed. Apparently the league or coaches don't think that Flus is a lame duck (or they do and know they will be promoted once he is fired lol).

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-nfl-free-agency-potential-landing-spots-for-top-quarterbacks-and-wide-receivers 24. WR CALVIN RIDLEY, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Potential landing spot(s): Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs With D.J. Moore in place, Chicago could get two players who are interchangeable as X-receivers up on the line and as good move/Z-receivers with alignment versatility. Both can create separation vertically, but Ridley could take the top off defenses even more and let Moore utilize his high-end after-the-catch abilities at the short and intermediate levels. Kansas City has shown time and time again that it isn’t going to make free agent splashes on older players, but perhaps the Chiefs buy low on a very good player who fits their play style profile as a really good separator with late hands. Every single mock draft from now until Round 1 of the 2024 Draft kicks off will have Kansas City taking one of the many great wide receivers in this class, but now picking either 31st or 32nd overall, the Chiefs address their biggest need in March and still leave the door open for a rookie. Top free agent comparison: Odell Beckham Jr., 2023 76. WR CURTIS SAMUEL, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS Potential landing spot(s): Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins Bears star wideout D.J. Moore is very close friends with Samuel from their shared time with the Carolina Panthers, and perhaps there’s something to be taken about Moore’s influence in Chicago from the Bears hiring Moore’s former wide receivers coach at Maryland in Chris Beatty, though Beatty has had several college and NFL stops and is certainly a deserving candidate regardless. Samuel offers a skill set the Bears seemingly tried to acquire in drafting Velus Jones Jr. — he can carry the ball out of the backfield and also rack up yards after the catch from slot and wide alignments. Miami adding another inside/outside athlete that continues the track speed trend would be a fun third option alongside Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Mike McDaniel would surely take advantage of Samuel’s ability with the ball in his hands near the line of scrimmage, weaponizing plenty of pre-snap motion and diverse formations/alignments, and he can also still win over the top on occasion. Top free agent comparison: Adam Humphries, 2019 Thoughts if either of these two or both were targeted in FA?

McCaffrey's younger brother? Converted from QB to WR, so has only played WR for two years, at Rice. Looks pretty good. Has the DNA.

Absolutely, both have playcaller experience. Somehow he squeezed 103 receptions and 1,014 yards out of Thielen.

We got a 2fer:

Slowik not going anywhere either. So the top 2 guys that the Bears would've been targeting (outside of Harbaugh) are staying with their current teams as OCs (Johnson and Slowik). I guess neither of them were impressed with the WAS or SEA jobs.

This guy:

Courtney didn't mention Quentin Johnston. He didn't develop as fast as one would expect for a 1st rounder. Hope that is just a player thing.