adam

or Lamar for that matter. Stroud 11-20, 55%, 131 yds, 6.6 Y/A. Outside of 3 plays has basically done nothing. On the other side, Lamar has 89 passing yards, 5.9 Y/A with a TD and 68 rushing yards and a TD. Neither have impressed me at all. Both look super tight and jumpy.

I think it can only be virtual until after the Divisional Round. https://theathletic.com/5191174/2024/01/10/nfl-coach-interview-rules/

300yd passing games: Penix 25/48 Williams 15/37 Nix 14/61 Daniels 14/55 Maye 12/28 McCarthy 3/40

Multi INT Games: Penix 7 Nix 6 Maye 5 Daniels 3 Williams 2 McCarthy 2

It looks like it depends on the episode: https://www.youtube.com/@BARROOMNETWORK

5 TD games: Williams 10 Nix 7 Daniels 6 Maye 5 Penix 4 McCarthy 0

Using Passing Yards, Passing TDs, INTs, QBR and PFF Grades over the last two seasons, the most consistent QB of the top 6 is Williams. He never had a PFF Grade under 90, QBR under 80, less than 3500 Passing Yards, 30 TDs, and never had more than 5 INTs in a season. Honestly, that is extremely impressive. Right now the order would be Williams, Nix, then Penix for two year production and consistency. The others have more red flags. McCarthy has a ton of red flags.

The only issue is he has done it every year, not just one, and it's also not like it is 3.0X: 3.16 in 2023, 3.24 in 2022 (Heisman year), and holy crap 3.51 in 2021 (OK). So it's not like he had one year where it jumps out. As far as I can tell, Williams is the only QB that I could find with 3+ years with a TTT above 3.0. Mahomes: 2.77, 2.85 Fields: 3.11, 3.18 Last QBs above 3.0 for 2 or more seasons: Tune, Willis, Pickett, Fields, Hurts, Ehlinger, and Jackson Only Ehlinger and Williams had 3 seasons above 3.0 since the stat was recorded. Williams is the only QB to ever throw for 4K yards while having a TTT over 3.2. So he either is a unicorn, or things are going to come crashing down for him in the NFL when you have less than 2.5 to actually throw the ball.

It's really hard to dissect this. I work with hundreds of people, am I friends with all of them? No, best friends with even 10 of them? No. Do I hate anyone? No. This is a kid doing the interview. I am sure there were other players resenting the fact that he won the QB position and never gave it back. I also share in the concerns though. If there is anything that is going to derail him, it's probably drama.

Like I said, as of today, I am taking Williams. As more information comes available, the combine, the E/W and Senior Bowl games, Pro Days, we will be able to complete our assessments. I think the interviews will be able to get into the head side. If there was another red flag, it's Williams' TTT. Very similar to Fields. Maye seems like he is still 1B, then Daniels, Penix, and Nix clumped together in Tier 2, and they seem to be based on what type of QB you want.

Wow you are that high on Maye? Allen is an MVP Candidate, and Herbert is a perennial 4K passer. You really think Maye can do that? If that is the case, sign me up.

Just based on what I know right now, I would go with Caleb Williams. He has the most untrainable traits. From all accounts, looks like a natural thrower of the football. It comes easy to him, and it doesn't look forced or robotic. He has played with some bad O-Line play which he will see a lot of in the NFL. If you are pulling the trigger on a QB, you have to get your guy. There is no way to ensure you can get your guy after #1. So even if it is not Williams, there is no way you can trade down and hope to get whatever QB you really want. The position is too important to risk an extra pick for, then miss out on the guy entirely. For the other QBs, I think Maye is a sort of Mac Jones/Trubisky hybrid, taking the good of those two and making one QB. He has the highest floor of the group, maybe him and Bo Nix. Daniels has the production, but the frame scares me. He reminds me of Teddy Bridgewater. I guess that is a good thing because Teddy has had a solid career, but I don't think anyone would be drafting a young Teddy Bridgewater in any of the first few rounds. Besides Williams, Daniels may have the highest ceiling. If he can add some bulk to his frame without losing too much in terms of speed, he is a really exciting prospect. Penix has looked really good and looks like the most NFL-ready QB, but two things that have always scared me about the transition from college to the NFL is age and the size/speed guys. For age, once you hit 23 and are still in college, you are playing against 18 yr old kids that are 5 years younger than you. If that is the reason you are performing well in college, that is gone in the NFL. The problem is you won't know until it's too late. For the athletic freak guys who have always been bigger or faster than their opponents at every level finally meet their match at the NFL level. Outside of 2-3 guys in the NFL at any given time, you lose that edge, which is what made them look better or perform better than others in college. Shaheen catching TDs over guys a foot shorter than him. Velus running past dudes like they are standing still.

Sometimes I feel like the Progressive commercial, Becoming Your Parents, when talking about Fields: "We all see it, we all see it".

Yes and it has been satisfied.

Fact or Fiction: Bryce Young had more passing yards in his rookie season on a terrible Panthers team than Justin Fields has had in any of his first 3 seasons?

I don't know what to think of bad former players. They reached the mountain top and made it to the NFL, but in Brock's case, he was atrocious. He started 4 games in his entire NFL career, went 0-4, and was out of the league after 8 total game appearances. Again, that's 8 more than me. However, it's hard to sift thru some of this with these guys. Is Huard saying that because that is what was ingrained in him as a player, that above all else, that is more important than skill? I get that players need to be leaders and part of the gig is motivating others, but at the same time, if you are terrible at your job, you will have a hard time leading others. Waldron is a very solid OC, with success as an OC. He would fit right in like he did in SEA with Flus compared to Carroll. The Bears wouldn't have interviewed him if they weren't interested. There is a great chance he is an OC in the NFL this season. Huard will not be. So guys like this, Brady Quinn, Dan Orlovsky, JT O'Sullivan. I appreciate their perspective, but have to understand it comes from being some of the worst doctors in the world. They made it thru med school, are certified, but all they did was malpractice. Would you take their medical advice knowing they were some of the worst in their craft?

I don't watch other teams other than highlights or the playoffs, or for fantasy football purposes. When I have seen Mahomes, he is not perfect at all, and sometimes he has a holy crap, what was he thinking type of pass. However, there really isn't something he does consistently that would be considered "bad". He does bad things, they are just not consistent. From watching Fields again, there is almost always slight delay for delivering the ball. His arm strength makes up for it sometimes, but it just feels like everything is a twitch too slow. I found myself saying "throw it" even when I knew when the throw was coming. Again, this is just my observation, it means nothing in the grand scheme of things.

DJ from NFL.com going Caleb Williams + Jared Verse. What do you think? If the top 3 WRs go before #9, I think the Bears trade down. https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0

Most are scouting reports and the mock drafts fall out differently than the big boards.

I am thinking Washington is going to do whatever it takes to get Caleb Williams. Besides the #2 pick, they have the Bears 2nd from the Sweat trade (#40) and their own 2nd at #36. They also have 2x 3rd round picks (#67 and #95 SF). This seems like a super safe move to ensure they get MHJ. I also don't think NE is going to be trading up. ARZ doesn't need a QB, so they will nab MHJ if he is on the board when they pick. If they don't care about MHJ, then they can obviously move down further to gain a future 1st rounder again. I could see WAS swapping from #2 to #1, but they would need to give up their own 2nd, their own 3rd, and a future 2nd at a minimum to move up. They may not have to give up a future 1st to get there. I know everyone, including me wants an extra 1st if we are trading down. The Bears moved up 1 spot for Trubisky 3 to 2, and SF got a current 3rd and 4th, and next year's 3rd to go from 2 to 3. Since 2 to 1 is a bigger leap, I could see a current 2nd, current 3rd, and a future 2nd at a minimum. This is me spitballing. That would give the Bears #2, #9, #36, #67, and #75 in the first 3 rounds. That's 5 starters, a WR, Edge, C, G or T, and S or TE. For me, that's the sweet spot. Come out of this draft with 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. Using the Rich Hill model, #1 is worth 1000, #2 is worth 717, #36 is worth 166, #67 is worth 75. That's 958 + 2025 2nd which is normally equal to half of the midround pick, Pick #48 is worth 121, so half is 60.5. 958+60.5=1018.5. That is well within range of realistic. Just say they gave the Bears #40 back instead of #36? Minus 17, now the trade = 1001.5. That is literally spot on. So between my spitball and the Rich Hill model, those are damn close to each other. In 2025, they would then have 3x 2nd round picks. So that would be 4 picks in the first 3 rounds. They could easily trade back on one of those 2nd's to recoup a 3rd rounder to have 5 in the first 3 next season. None of this includes potential 2x 3rd Round comp picks for Cunningham once he is hired away from the team.

Watching some more of Fields' play. Even when he is throwing on time, over the middle, or in his progressions, he still has this hitch. He doesn't hit his back foot and just throw it. He either does a little hop, almost does a subconscious little pump fake, or a double clutch. I am seeing this even on what most would deem the good throws. Not all the throws, but a lot of them. He seems way more comfortable throwing on the move, it is so weird. He also drifts in the pocket, a few times towards an Edge Defender who is going wide. If he stayed center, he could step up, but because he drifted, the Edge is on his back shoulder a step faster than it should be. At the end of the day, he seems like a super athletic dude trying to play QB. He has done it long enough to make some nice plays but it is not natural for him. Watching this again makes me so pissed at Getsy. What the hell are some of these route combinations? They literally draw defenders in. In some cases, it allows them to cover 3 receivers with 2 defenders, terrible play designs. There is also not may receivers open. Even with Moore, he has to make a lot of contested catches, or is hit right away. Here is a good video with a whole bunch of clips put together:

Also, sometimes guys are better in a 2nd gig, and in this case Kliff would not immediately go from Boys2Men as the HC like he did with the Cards. Being an OC when you already have a HC would allow him to solely focus 100% of his attention on the offense.

Everything looks solid outside of the player trades beyond Fields. All the trades incur some dead money. For Whitehair and Jackson, the dead money is the same for a cut or a trade. No one is trading for Whitehair. For Jackson, the trading team would have a $12.5M cap hit. My assumption is Jackson is restructured or cut before free agency. Whitehair is almost a 100% guarantee cut candidate. Mooney is a FA, so he can't be traded.

I know there is a lot of concern about the Bears not having a 2nd round pick, but technically their #9 pick is their 2nd pick, just 23+ picks early (like a free trade up). If they go QB at #1, they have to go WR if Nabers or Odunze are on the board at #9. If not, I think you trade down with that pick. If they keep Fields and trade down from #1, then I would still apply the same theory. Get one WR, then consider trading down from #9 as well. So something like 1 to 3, then select MHJ, gain a 2nd, move from 9 to the teens and gain another 2nd rounder. That would be sweet. 4 picks in the top 60.

Here is the consensus Big Board where they take all the popular big boards and compile them into a consensus list: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024?pos=ALL Interesting that #1 is Williams and #9 is Odunze. This is not mock draft positions, but BPA rankings.