adam

Here are the first QBs taken when there is not one taken #1 overall (last 5): 2022 - Pickett 2017 - Trubisky 2014 - Bortles 2013 - Manuel 2008 - Ryan The last 4, yeesh. So like you said, when there is a consensus, the odds are better. I also looked back at a bunch of draft sites about the QB rankings from last year, it was about 50/50 Young and Stroud. Some other sites were even undecided and said it depended on what type of QB you were looking for. Every site was concerned about Young's size though, which is and was a huge red flag.

Pretty crazy to find someone do basically the same exact analysis and coming to essentially the same conclusions I did from a month agao. The highest success rate for QB is when selected #1. 70% of the #1 picks in the last 30 years hit 4K passing yards, had a playoff win, and Pro Bowl. The rest of the 1st rounders, the success rate drops to 25%-33%. So a team is 2-3 times more likely to find THE GUY #1 than he is any other pick in the 1st round. The numbers plummet even further after the 1st round. Guys like Brady and to an extent Purdy (if he keeps it up) are unicorns, and make 6th and 7th round picks have a 4% chance of hitting compared to 2%.

My bet is he skips the combine and gets measured at his pro day. A big red flag if he skips the combine.

Not a bad read. I found a few comments interesting, first, this was the first weakness "Is vulnerable to shouldering too much of the offense’s responsibilities" - I lol'd at that. The true weakness that you can't develop is height. If he really is under 6'1", it is going to be scary, because if he only 6' and 1/2 an inch, he would be shorter than Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts. Fields and Stroud are 6'3" and Fields even gets a lot of balls batted down.

After this weekend's outcomes, it looks like a few additional teams made it into the Disappointment zone. Outside of everything Bears related, who/what was the biggest disappointment this season?

Officially official:

The Bears really need a new Center, RG, and an upgrade at LT.

Yeah, it's not rocket science either. If you can put guys in motion you stress the defense. Misdirection then makes them a half step slow because they can't commit 100% one way. So even on plays that are not misdirection later, the LBs are a step slow to the hole because they have to ensure the play is not going in the other direction. Getsy's play design was worse than just taking plays out of Madden. Nowadays, you can have analytics and AI build you undefendable plays against various defenses. I honestly don't know how the Bears offense could look that bad two years in a row. At least under Nagy, it was serviceable. Since Getsy it has turned into a pile of dung.

Really odd to stick with meh after two seasons of meh.

Bears not that far off.

Playoff games so far: A bunch of teams didn't even show up. Detroit wins on a non-call DPI. GB put up 48 on DAL in DAL, while the Bears allowed 17 in a crappy game. Bears beat DET once, should've beaten them twice, DET wins playoff game. If that same CLE team played the Bears a few weeks back, the Bears win by 20+ as well. Curious to see what the games look like today, snow in BUF and PHI @ TB.

There are about 40 coaches I would trade for Eberflus right now.

Pretty wild, both in their first playoff games: Love 16-21, 272 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 157.2 QB Rating Stroud 16-21, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 157.2 QB Rating

GB just put on a clinic in Dallas. Coaching matters, scheme matters. There were so many wide open receivers, some had 16+ yards of separation from the nearest defender, but this was all Jordan Love's doing:

Stroud is legit, I am just saying the Bears offensive roster is not there yet. If they draft a QB at #1, he would not be going into the same situation as Stroud, arguably worse. With only the #9 pick and no 2nd rounder, the Bears would be able to potentially address WR2 and C in the draft, but the rest of the holes would have to be filled via FA.

People are now comparing Stroud's situation to what a rookie would have with the Bears this year. Just to compare, his WR4 (Robert Woods) would've been the Bears WR2. Their WR5 had the same stats as our WR3. Their TE2 had double the yards than Tonyan. Based on production, the combined teams would look like this: Moore, Collins, Dell, Brown, Woods, Mooney, Scott, Metchie, Hutchinson. The Bears need to add WR2, WR3, and WR4 and TE2 to be comparable to HOU's offense.

My assumption is they are promoting Phil Snow to that position.

I was assuming it was going to be Phil Snow who came in as just an advisor.

Everything is speculation until it becomes fact. I am just saying Greg actually talked to Cliff regularly and I think he was his "source" for all his info because he has been going off on Twitter every since this was announced.

Based of Greg Gabriel's response on Twitter, he was let go. He said he talked to Cliff last week and there was no indication that he would be leaving the org. He believes it was Warren. Other theories: Poles didn't necessarily want to trade Roquan or not extend JJ already, but Stein's contracts were the limiting factor. So if JJ gets extended in the next week or so, there may be some legs to this.

Those were just examples. The rookie contracts go up less per year than a vet deal as well, so even if a Fields contract may go up a few mil per year, the other deals would offset any increases.

Foreshadowing? Brees was traded and SD drafted Rivers, who then went on to play 16 years with 12 seasons over 4K yards.

Cleveland crapped the bed today against Houston, wow they looked terrible. I cannot believe the Bears lost to this same team. They were not ready to play. Their defense in particular looked gassed and slow. Flacco decided to turn into a pumpkin and throw back to back Pick 6's. Houston ran off 35 straight pts down 14-10. Unbelievable really. The media is going to slurp off Stroud because he is a rookie, but man, he didn't have to do anything that difficult. Davis Mills would've looked like Justin Herbert today against the Browns. Stroud had so many easy passes and dudes were WIDE open. He dumps off a little screen pass, blown coverage, to the house for 76 yards by a slow TE. Then on another blown coverage, Stroud lobs a ball for another long TD to another TE. Zero sacks, I don't even think he was pressured/hurried once. If he was, I missed it.

Cliff Stein is gone:

Ugh Cliff Stein is out: