adam

I think the OC and QB Coach choice will be a small indicator. If they go with someone who specializes or has worked with QBs in a quick passing game/tempo offense, I think they would lean towards drafting a QB better suited for that style. If they bring in a set of coaches that have worked with mobile QBs, RPO Game, etc, then it probably leans back towards Fields returning and stocking up on more draft capital.

What's funny is if the 1st rounder is 35%, and the 2x 2nd rounders are both 20%, the odds of one of the two hitting is 36%. So there is something to that. Also, the percentage goes down by the actual pick, the round is sort of irrelevant, especially once comp picks get added.

Just like Shanahan, Kubiak has had a lot of football in his life. The year he was OC for MIN in 2021, their offense was 13th in DVOA, 12th in EPA/Droback, Cousins had a 103.1 QB Rating (4th), 33 TD (9th), 7 INT (2nd), and 4,221 yards passing (9th). Some may say that is what Cousins always does, but the year prior he threw 13 picks and the year after 14 picks, which are double the INTs from the Kubiak year, which is notable. The QB Rating dropped to 92.5 last year, a 10+ pt drop is also notable. That is an interesting comparison to what Geno did last year with Waldron: 100.9 QB Rating (5th), 30 TD (4th), 11 INT, 4,282 yards passing (8th). If I had to lean one way or the other Waldron would be my pick. Getsy was on Rodgers coattails, Kubiak could've easily been on Cousins. Also note, Kubiak didn't get another OC job in the last two years. The alternative argument is he has gained a year under Shanahan to make his scheme even better.

Welcome to the board! 1. You are correct, Flus still technically doesn't have his guy at QB, just like Poles. They inherited Fields, so that is another factor in this entire situation to consider. 2. If they draft anyone at #1 Williams is definitely one of the QBs they have to consider as long as the "human" stuff checks out. 3. This is a tough one. The Bears do not have a 2024 2nd from the Sweat trade, and 9 to 2 is a pretty huge leap that almost always includes a future 1st. There may be some crazy 3-team trade scenario and trade up to #3 that would work, assuming a QB is taken at #2 and you can get MHJ at #3 (Fields > ATL for #8 + #9 + 2025 2nd > #3). DJ and MHJ would instantly become a top 5 Duo in the NFL. Yeah, it has been a long 3 years, especially last year when the most exciting game was a HOU vs IND game.

2 for 2 so far.

The one thing that has hit me about Williams is, for some reason, he gives me a Claypool vibe. Like once he gets hit in the mouth and teabagged, he is gonna turtle. Daniels is probably the most intriguing and seems to hit all the standard checkboxes you are looking for in a QB. Maye scares me because I see that NC uniform and it gives me nightmares. He actually reminds me of Rivers though, just with normal throwing motion.

Poles has mentioned it as a 3-yr plan. So he sort of backed himself into a corner now. One thing that may be sort of telling is the types of free agents he goes after this offseason and what their contracts look like. There are currently 36 players under contract for 2024 that are part of the 53-man roster. So they need 17 new players this offseason, including extensions. If they plan to run it back with Fields, Poles knows his cap hit will increase in 2026, so he will have to account for that in every contract he offers. On the flip side, if he is planning on drafting a QB, he has some additional wiggle room for the life of any contract he would offer this offseason. Just something to follow.

I try to only follow the beat guys for the Bears on Twitter, but sometimes I will see what other fans or wannabee "bloggers" are saying. Holy crap, I can't unsee some of that. The amount of madness that comes out of people's mouths is insane. Here is one:

I think a lot of that is noise. NE is not gonna be the same with Bill. Jerod Mayo is cool, but he is not Belichick. WAS doesn't even have a HC yet, so that is up in the air. They also traded away their starting Edge rushers. I feel like his height is gonna be the shocker at the Combine. He will come in at 6'0.5" or something like that, under 6'1", and that is going to start a shitstorm. If the Bears pass on him, but get a king's ransom again, this team might be able to play without a QB, just run 10 players out there and they would still win.

First question, do you know what a quick slant is? Second question, would you ever throw the same screen on back to back plays?

I hope that is not the only or primary criteria. I would rather hire the best up and coming guy for the job regardless of demographics.

He clearly said 4 different types. My assumption is Williams, Maye, Daniels, and Penix.

What's interesting to me is, if the Bears trade down, they might even end up with more "resources" in 2024 AND 2025 while the team trading up will lose those. Look at CAR for example. They are actually projected to be worse next year than this year as they won't get a blue chipper 1st round rookie like 20+ other teams. Additionally, their cap space is only slightly above average which will help them improve a little bit, but that won't offset the loss of the #1 overall pick. Now one caveat, even if CAR is the worst team, that doesn't necessarily mean they will finish with the worst record but they should finish bottom 3. Injuries, unexpected performances (Nacua), and strength of schedule all have an impact on the projected outcomes that are not taken into account here.

So I did some additional research on this. Using ELO to measure the current roster, then taking into account the draft capital compared to the average plus the cap space compared to the average. I tried to figure out how much this team can improve based solely on the average outcomes of a draft pick and FA acquisition. This is what I came up with: 1. The Bears are currently 18th in ELO. 2. They have the 3rd most draft capital (though the #1 pick is probably worth more). 3. They have one of the highest effective cap spaces available as of today. 4. Their projected ELO for 2024 should increase by 57 putting them in 11th in the NFL (which would be 10-11 wins). 4a. The margin of error is around +/- 10, so 10th-12th is the projected ranking without any other context. 5. The 5 best teams to consider a trade with for a 2025 1st would be CAR, DEN, NYJ, WAS, and NE as they should finish 2024 in the bottom 5 of the NFL. 5a. What I find interesting is at least 3 of those teams need a QB (DEN, WAS, NE) and obviously WAS and NE are drafting #2 and #3 respectively. REFs: https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/ https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-teams-2024-offseason-resources-cap-space-2024-nfl-draft https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings

I don't mind the INT games, but it kinda sucks to lose the extra home game AND have a week of extra travel. So I assume the bye will come after this game.

They do have some good conversations, but I despise Amon-Ra. Great player, but man he is cocky. It is really easy to catch passes when you are wide open dude.

At the expense of Carolina, lol. What's crazy to think is, there is a finite number of resources in the NFL, only so many All-Pros, Pro Bowlers, draft picks, salary cap, so when one team gets better, almost by default another team gets worse. Same goes for wins and losses, unless there is a tie, the entire league trades wins and losses every year. So the easiest way to improve is by gaining more resources than your opponents, thus taking those things away from them. CHI got a lot better, and CAR is borked for at least the next 5 years.

At this point, Fields camp has zero precedence for a top 10 contract based on his production. There are ranges, and Fields would be more in line with a Daniel Jones type contract than a Justin Herbert contract unless Fields breaks out. You could even say his current performance level puts his 5th year option in question.

He just moved to another position within the organization, but they told the staff that they are free to seek other employment. So it's definitely possible he could interview for the HC position there.

SEA was 12th in Offensive DVOA, CHI was 22nd. SEA was 10th in EPA/play SEA scored fewer than 13 pts once this season, 3 against BAL in BAL.

LMAO, Janocko was literally a joko.

This would be a great hire if they pull it off:

One thing that hit me, I know there are concerns about an OC coming in under a lame duck HC, but teams are always worried about losing their coordinators to HC jobs every year, sometimes after their first year as coordinators, so if the guy coming in thinks he is the bomb, he should only expect to be a coordinator for year before he heads off to be a HC somewhere right?

It could also mean they are extending Flus at least thru 2026 to give the incoming OC some predictability, versus coaching for a potential lame duck HC.