adam

I love trolling GB lol:

The Pass Defenses GB and Love have faced since their bye: Post Bye CAR 3rd TB 32nd NYG 20th KC 2nd DET 26th LAC 30th PIT 22nd LAR 24th MIN 18thx2 DEN 23rd GB has not faced a defense like the Bears who are #1 against the run AND have the most INT in the league. If the Bears can shutdown the screen game with Jones, I think they will win handily. This game fits right into the Bears strengths (Bears #2 rush attack against GB's #28 Run Defense). The Bears should be able to control the clock. As long as they can limit turnover, I think the Bears win by 10.

I added the players. Basically if need be, they could add vet min guy for about $1M per year.

Game Time temperature 31-33F on Sunday, context matters. Just on averages, Fields should outgain Love and have similar TDs, while Love will have 10-20 more passing yards while Fields has 30-40 more rushing yards. Jordan Love (21-40F) 3 games, 101.8 QB Rating, 69.3%, 769 yds (256/g), 6.7 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT, 13 rushing yds (4/g), 0 TD 260 yds per game, 2 Total TDs/g, 0.3 INT/g Justin Fields (21-40F) 2 games, 93.8 QB Rating, 60.0%, 491 yds (246/g), 7.6 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 103 rushing yds (52/g), 2 TD 298 yds per game, 2 Total TDs/g, 0 INT/g Expect a lot of dink and dunk from Love.

And Philly is burning right now. They are trending down fast. Losing to ARZ? Carter still has elite traits but will always have the bad stuff that comes with it. Also, once they get enough tape on some players they find ways to neutralize them.

One sneaky thing to think about for next year. They say turnovers are "luck" and you rarely lead the league in multiple or consecutive years. So even if the Bears get fewer takeaways, if they are more efficient on offense and turn more of those into points, it would be a net positive.

Going off shear need, meaning biggest upgrade of one roster spot from the current player(s), my order would be: 1. Center - I know this won't be the first one addressed in the draft or FA, but adding a league average player to this position would be the biggest upgrade on the roster IMO. The Center touches the ball every play, is responsible for getting the ball to the QB on time, helping with protections, identifying the Mike, etc. A great Center helps the entire line and QB. A bad one makes everyone worse. 2. WR2 - Mooney has been serviceable at best, but highly replaceable. This to me would be the 2nd biggest upgrade felt on the offense, especially considering this will more than likely be a high draft pick. We have been craving a true WR1 for awhile and were blessed with DJ Moore. Now to truly compliment him with a Robin would also make Moore better. Passing volume would have to increase to fully utilize this guy. 3. RG - I have not been high on Davis, maybe he can shake off a bad year, but only looks slightly better than Patrick or Whitehair out there. I am surprised they haven't went to Carter. If there is a way out of his contract, I would move on from Davis, he has been that bad for me. 4. TE2 - Just based on usage, I have this below RG because RG plays every down. The Bears need a U-TE to compliment Kmet. That is missing right now, or is in need of an upgrade on par with WR2, however, WR2 sees more snaps than TE2, so I put WR2 first. Like I said with WR2, passing volume would need to go up to make use of this guy and get him targets. Otherwise, you are just taking them away from Moore or Kmet which may just be a wash. 5. 3rd Down Back/Scat Back or Real Slot WR - On 3rd Down, it only seems like the RB is there to be an extra blocker, but if you had a pass catching RB who could line up in the backfield, then go out wide (Cohen), that creates hell for defenses. In the same breath, having a real Slot WR who has short area quickness to go with Moore and Odunze would be wild. You can mix and match with Kmet or a U. The amount of combinations would be epic.

Two things to add, if he trades back and gains another first (say in 2025), they would have the draft capital to move up for a QB in case Fields regresses or gets hurt. Hedging in back to back years. If Poles can keep flipping a first to acquire a future first, he can keep the roster cost controlled better than pretty much every other team. He is gaining an extra 5th year on every first he acquires. It might not sound like a big deal, but when that player is on that 5th year option vs a full extension, that is a decent amount of savings. It's at least a mid-level vet starter ($10M or so) for that year. So if he was somehow able to pull off another trade back, that would be at least 2 extra 5th year options. So even if they had to start paying Fields $40-50M, they would at least have some cushion with so many of their starters on rookie deals. In 2026, Fields would be on his 1st year of an extension, and the Bears could have at least 30 key contributors on rookie deals. That's crazy to think of really.

It's almost like we already traded up to #10 from the 30s. Also, the way Poles has drafted with guys like Stevenson and Dexter this year and Gordon and Brisker last year. He really seems like he is a value/BPA guy, which would lead me to believe he would be more inclined to trade back and accumulate capital and more darts to throw at the board. If he keeps drafting like he has, and they can gain a 2nd (or two) by trading back, I think he will do it.

So looking at cap space and draft capital this offseason. The Bears are in such a rare position, it may be almost unprecedented. The team has the #1 pick, potentially a second top 10 pick, and over $60M in cap space. Right now, there are 8 teams who are already over the cap with their 2024 contracts. The Saints are in one of the worst positions I have seen a team in, in a long time. They are going to have to make post-June 1 cuts just to field a team and sign their rookies. These teams have no chance of signing anything but vet minimum deals: Saints - $87M over the cap/ 43 players Bills - $43M over the cap/ 44 players Dolphins - $41M over the cap/ 37 players Chargers - $35M over the cap/ 37 players These teams may have room for 1 mid to low end free agent after some cuts and restructures: Broncos - $18M over the cap/ 44 players Cowboys - $16M over the cap/ 48 players Browns - $13M over the cap/ 45 players Steelers - $7M over the cap/ 43 players There are 3 teams under $10M in cap space, so they will need to restructure to sign their rookies and a few FAs. They might have room for 1-2 mid level guys or older vets on a low deal. 49ers - $1.3M cap space/ 44 players Seahawks - $3M cap space/ 40 players Packers - $7.6M cap space/ 43 players That is 11 teams that are basically out of any major free agent signing or big extensions for their own players that are not already done. They can move some money around and restructure to make space, but for the most part, none of these teams are improving through free agency. In terms of draft capital, there are two teams without a 1st round pick in 2024, CAR and CLE. CLE also doesn't have a 4th rounder. CHI, DEN, SEA, and NYJ do not have 2nd rounders, but CHI obviously has 2x 1st rounders negating the lost 2nd rounder. CLE is over the cap and does not have a first round pick. This team will more than likely regress next year the most "on paper". DEN doesn't have a 2nd rounder and is over the cap. SEA doesn't have a 2nd rounder and has minimal cap. In contrast, the Bears have the #1 pick, the #10 pick and currently $60M in cap space (38 players). The Cardinals have the 4th and 17th pick and have $53M (44 players). They are the only 2 teams with 2x first rounders, and ironically both have over $50M in cap space. Based on offseason resources alone, the Bears have the most Cap+Draft resources in 2024, followed by the Cardinals. The Browns are 32nd, the Saints are 31st, followed by the Broncos, Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers, Panthers and Jets. Just based on league parity, these 9 teams will all likely regress in 2024 to some extent, and are very unlikely to improve.

All I know is this is going to be a wild offseason. They didn't make the Panthers trade until March 10th last year. So we are going to have some crazy speculation going until at least March 10th again, or possibly up until April 25th. This year the combine is February 26th – March 4th, March 5th is the Franchise Tag deadline, March 11th starts free agency, the draft is Apr 25 - 27, and May 2nd is the 5th Year option deadline.

That's the thing, if you use the entire package or career stats, that says you draft a QB #1 as Fields has underperformed as you need more out of the QB position to make deep playoff runs. If you use the last 9 games only, it says he is right at the cusp of the top 10 QBs in terms of overall production and you keep him and build an even better team around him where you don't need him to be top 5 to win a Super Bowl.

Yes, that's why they don't have a second. I was saying with any trade back will probably net them a 2nd, so if they traded back from 1 to 3, and somehow missed on MHJ, I could see them trading back again which could yield a second 2nd rounder, which would be pretty wild.

If the Bears traded down intending to get MHJ and someone jumped them to get him, I would expect Poles to try to trade down again. Let someone else come up to get a QB, then go wild, grab a WR (Odunze), DL (Newton), and TE (Bowers) with additional draft capital. What is so crazy is the Bears are starting with 2x first rounders and 0 second rounders, but any trade in the first is going to net a future 1st and probably a current 2nd. So if you trade down a second time (so 1 to 3, then 3 to 10), you could add ANOTHER 1st rounder in 2025 (that would be 3), and a 2nd 2nd rounder in 2024 while still have two picks in the top 12 (5 picks in top 75). Then have 3x 1st rounders and 2x 2nd rounders in 2025. MADNESS.

Sort of off topic, but after watching some SF games. The Bears need to have Fields do tosses to the RBs and WRs in motion forward, so he gets credit for a completion and all the yards they gain. SF runs this crack toss, but because Purdy tosses it forward, it is considered a pass.

Tom Brady?

What's wild to me is Mahomes is seen as potentially the GOAT, or at least top 5 all-time. This season he has a QB Rating of 92.6, averages 264 passing yds a game (285 yds overall), 7.0 Y/A, and has 27 TDs (1.7) to 17 Turnovers (1.1). This is his 7th season in the same offense with a HoF TE and a great O-Line. I think the question becomes, can Fields get to those numbers? Fields has 268 yd/g, 1.8 TD, and 0.9 meaning he is 17 yards away from having a near identical season to Mahomes. Fields QB rating is 85.8 with 1 INT that hit the ground. How does Fields production compare to the expected MVP? Jackson averages 230 passing yards a game and 51 rushing for 281 yards a game. He has 29 TDs and 13 turnovers. His TD rate is 1.8/g (same as Fields), his turnover rate is 0.8/g (Fields is 0.9). So with 268 yds/g, Fields is 13 yards away from the projected MVP yet somehow there is a conversation about replacing him with a guy that would throw for 50 more yards (7 more completions of 7yds), but rush for 30 less (6 less rushes of 5 yds), and that is the BEST CASE scenario. Here is my question, would you rather have Trevor Lawrence production (271 yds/g, 1.5 TD/g, 1.2 TO/g) with an extra 2nd round pick or Justin Fields (268 yds/g, 1.8 TD/g, 0.9 TO/g) with an extra 1st round pick?

Also, does Fields in the game help the RBs rushing totals? Can that indirect effect allow them to gain those 17 yards lost? I think it does.

Fields career in 4 quarters (9 games per quarter): 1Q - 4 games with 270 total yards, 8 TDs (0.89), 14 Turnovers, 2 games with 3+ turnovers -------------------------------- (Nagy to Getsy) ------------------------------ 2Q - 2 games with 270 total yards, 14 TDs (1.56), 7 Turnovers (2 other games over 250 yds) 3Q - 3 games with 270 total yards, 15 TDs (1.67), 11 Turnovers 4Q - 6 games with 270 total yards, 16 TDs (1.78), 8 Turnovers (1 other game over 250 yds) So 270 yards is sort of the threshold for high-end/elite QBs, that would total 4,590 yds for a 17 game season. 1.8 TDs per games is 30 TDs for a 17 game season. So right now Fields' last 9 games or last quarter of his career, he is averaging 268 yds per game which also includes the partial game where he got injured. His TD rate per game is 1.78, which is rounded up to 1.8. So he basically hits the bottom of that threshold on average for his last 9 games for both yardage and TDs. The last part of the equation is turnovers. Most elite QBs have less than 1 per game. Fields interestingly enough, hit that in his 2nd quarter (first with Getsy) and the 4th quarter as well. So the question becomes, can someone like Williams or Maye exceed 268 yards per game and 1.78 TDs with a 0.89 turnover rate? For the season that would be 4,556 total yards, 30 TDs, and 15 turnovers. Stroud seems like the new gold standard for rookies, right now he averages 285 yds, 1.7 TDs , 0.64 turnovers Tua, who leads the league in passing yards, averages 282 total yards per game. Stroud surpasses him with some extra rushing yards. Cousins was leading the league in total yards per game average at 295. Allen is at 275, Mahomes at 285, Prescott at 280, and Hurts at 275, and Jackson at 281. So the last question is, is using the #1 pick on a QB to gain 17 total yards (passing+rushing) per game, 1 less TD per year, and 4 fewer turnovers per year worth it? That is basically what you gain from going from Fields to Stroud at best. The risk is Maye/Williams/Daniels are Trubisky 4.0. This info leads me to believe they will stick with Fields and add a playmaker to upgrade at WR2 (which would gain 50yds per game and 6-8 TDs per year compared to Mooney/Scott.

There are some amazing pics from the game.

One thing Poles has to consider is Fields trade value. So if a team like ATL who thinks they are a QB away, what if they are willing to do a Stafford-like trade and give up say a 1st and a future 3rd for Fields. Would that be enough to sway Poles in that direction? That would give the Bears the #1, #9, and #10 picks in 2024, and then an extra 2nd (CAR) and 3rd in 2025 for example. Just say they go QB at 1, they can still get a WR and another blue chipper (Newton or Bowers) at 10 OR trade back one of those for extra picks. What is going to make the Bears the best team possible in 2024 and beyond.

Final Standings (Payouts) and 2024 Draft Order: 1. Fields of Dreams ($440) - 10th pick (Adam) 2. Comfortably Dumb ($200) - 9th pick (Duane) 3. Savagew/LooseMorals! ($75) - 8th pick (Brad) 4. Nips&Tips ($35) - 7th pick (Jason) 5. Motm - 6th pick 6. PapaBear - 5th pick 7. The Bunny - 1st pick Consolation Round Winner 8. Victorious Secret - 2nd pick 9. Nopper - 3rd pick 10. The Mad Lithuanians - 4th pick (new GM needed) We are losing Andrew and have an opening for a new GM to take his team, currently drafting 4th next season. Payouts go out via Leaguesafe once the league closes on Yahoo on Jan 2nd. The payouts will be on hold until 5 GMs vote YES to the payouts or Jan 8th, whichever comes first.

The 4th quarter thing is concerning, but when you are trailing 90% of the time, it makes you super predictable and the defense can be very aggressive. Which is why I hate when Flus goes to prevent and passive zones with a lead. All splits are much different when you consider leading, tied, and trailing. So of course most players trailing in the 4th quarter are going to have worse stats unless you are Tom Brady.

If Williams measures in at only 6ft even, I think he is gonna drop.

Hmm, let me see. Very true, but how much of that is on Getsy vs Fields. That is tough to separate.