adam

The Bears are 10th in 3rd Down conversions (41.9%) and 12th in RZ% at 59.6%, and tied for 16th in TDs. This feels about right. A few TDs left on the field with those dropped passes.

So check this out, I have been digging in some stats (go figure). One thing that really impacts actual raw stats is game situation. Fields has been playing from behind more than 90% of the QBs in the last 3 seasons. When I compared him to Lamar Jackson's first 3 seasons, I didn't even realize Fields had double the amount of passing attempts from behind than Lamar had. The game is much easier you are not trailing. Lamar also had the #1 defense that was continually giving him the ball with a short field. So the raw stats are super skewed. When I sorted by splits, and said give me only stats when the game is tied, Fields is 1 of 16 active QBs in the last 3 seasons (cumulatively) to have a Passer Rating above 90.0 when the game is tied. Fields has a 92.3 rating when the game is tied. Justin Herbert is 92.9. Lamar has a 84.1.

PFF gave Fields an 81.0 for the ATL game, the 2nd highest game of the season for him (DEN). For the season, Fields has a 75.1 PFF grade, which is 21st for qualifying QBs. That is really good considering PFF hates Fields. That is up from 70.2 last season and 64.2 his rookie year. With one game left, he has a chance to inch his total grade closer to 80, which would put him in the top 15.

Also, if the Bears decide to trade the #1 pick instead of getting a QB there, that pick could yield 2-3 extra rookie contracts, negating any difference in QB salary vs other roster spots.

My thoughts are, if Poles believes Fields is a top 15 QB today and can still improve, they will trade the first pick, and at most may take a developmental QB, but not one in the first few rounds. Williams, Maye, or Daniels may be a top 10 QB, but the probability of going from Fields to Bryce Young is just as high as going from Fields (top 15 QB) to top 10 QB. So the gain vs risk says you keep Fields and the improvement for whatever position you draft with that pick (say WR2 goes from Mooney to MHJ) is greater than Fields to a rookie QB. Looking at positional cap hits, using the 10th highest hit, QB costs $40M, Edge costs $21M, WR costs $20M, IDL costs $18M, CB costs $15M. What does this matter? Well if you keep Fields and have to pay him soon, he will cost between $40-50M per year on the cap, but if you draft a WR or Edge with that pick, you are saving $15-20M with a player on a rookie deal. COA 1 - Fields $40M + Rookie WR $7M = $47M COA 2 - Williams $7M + FA WR or Edge $20M = $27M So there is a $20M difference for 3 years. Eddie Jackson cap savings if cut = $12.5M, Cody Whitehair cap savings when cut = $9.1M, there is $21.6M.

Looking at recent games, GB just crushed MIN, but MIN was starting Jaren Hall, their leading rusher was Ty Chandler, and Johnny Mundt was their starting TE. Last week, they needed a last second FG to beat CAR, and they lost to TB and NYG in the two games before that. So 2-2 in the last month. Compare that to the Bears, who are 3-1 in their last 4, who crushed ATL by 20, beat ARZ by double digits, the same ARZ team that beat PHI this week, then lost the collapse game to CLE and Joe Flacco by 3, and then they beat DET by 15 before that. So if feels like the Bears should have the edge in this game as long as they are healthy.

This is it. The Bears are eliminated, but this game would put an exclamation point on the season. The Packers make the playoffs with a win, and miss the playoffs with a loss. So they have a ton of motivation to win this one. GB has the 13th Offense for yards, Bears now 15th. For Defense, Bears are 12th, GB is 21st. The Bears are the 2nd best rushing offense and best rushing defense per game. The Bears are #1 in INT (22), Packers are 30th (7). So the Bears have the edge overall. The Packers have the better passing game and screen game with Jones, but that's about it on offense. The Bears have the better rushing attack. Kmet's health is going to be key. If Kmet is healthy and plays, I think the Bears can eek out a close win 21-20. If Kmet does not play or is limited, I think the Packers win 24-17. A win and it's almost a guarantee that Flus, Getsy, and Fields would be back. A loss, and I would say all of those would be up in the air.

Something to consider, a lot of QB numbers are way down this year. The TD lead with 16 games played is Prescott with 32. That is super low considering QBs in the past had over 50.

Fields ended up with a 66.0 QBR for Week 17 which bumped his season QBR to 46.3. It has been an uphill battle all season but he does have 3x 60+ QBR games out of his last 4 games. That is a positive trend considering he started the season with an 18.3, 16.8, and 16.3. Fields QB Rating is now at 85.8 after a 99.5 for the game. Fields has a good chance to lead the team in passing and rushing for a 2nd consecutive season.

He has but he gets way too lucky on too many passes. This is his first full season on tape, the league will adjust. He will have a much harder time next season. He throws to a lot of wide open receivers. Crazy to think Love will average 255 yards per game (passing+rushing) and Fields in 12 games counting the one he got hurt in averages 253 yds per game.

So the playoffs come down to tonight's MIN/GB game ending in a tie. If that occurs, the Bears would need the following to happen in Week 18 to get in as the #7 seed: 1. CHI beats GB 2. DET beats MIN 3. TB beats CAR (TB needs to win the DIV) 4. ATL beats NO 5. ARZ beats SEA Final records would be: 7. CHI 8-9, 7-5 Conf 8. SEA 8-9, 6-6 Conf (loses Conf record tie-breaker to CHI) 9. ATL 8-9, 5-7 Conf (wins tie breaker against NO, loses tie breaker to CHI H2H) 10. NO 8-9, 5-7 Conf (loses tie breaker to ATL H2H) 11. MIN 7-9-1, 6-5-1 Conf 12. GB 7-9-1, 5-6-1 Conf If the Bears just held onto one of those collapses, they would be the 7th seed heading into Week 18. If they won them all they would be in the division lead at 10-6 with the H2H tiebreaker against DET. Unbelievable.

It's contagious. I was thinking, Fields has like 300 yards lost on drops in the last few weeks, including 3-4 TDs, and probably 100 yards rushing lost on worthless holding penalties that were not needed. The raw stats are very deceiving, like the INT that hit the ground yet still counts on his stats.

BAL just beat SF and MIA in back to back weeks, 33-19 and 56-19 is crazy impressive. The AFC goes thru Baltimore and they are getting the bye. Good luck AFC. Wild cards are CLE and BUF. In the NFC, PHI just lost to ARZ, DAL barely beat DET and SF showed they can't beat BAL. BAL has to be the odds on favorite right now. In every game they will be favored to win.

The most hilarious thing is Green Bay now stuck in the NFL purgatory zone between 7-8 wins annually drafting mid-teens with no shot at a top QB with Love doing just enough to win some and lose some.

ARZ does have 2x first rounders, #4 and #17 right now. I would not rule them out. To me it looks like it could be WAS (to guarantee they get their guy), NE to ensure they don't miss out on the top 2 (and get their guy), then ATL is definitely a high probable option and LVR currently at 11 would take a haul to drop all the way to 11, but they do have Maxx Crosby. NYJ and ARZ are wild cards. The team that finishes 3rd out of WAS or NE is going to be the most likely candidate to leapfrog the #2 team to get their guy. WAS seems more desperate and NE seems more conservative in trade respects. The Bears already traded with both teams (Harry-NE, Sweat-WAS). ATL has the Pace connection to some players that could be added to the trade.

Yeah I saw that, come on people, they need to brief the staff up to caught our players and the let the opponents run into that junk. Easy way to break your wrist.

Sorry about the championship game. I just had the best two weeks of my fantasy football career (lol) in back to back weeks. 225 pts last week and 222 this week in the championship with Cooper out was shocking. Even without Lamb's 50, I would have 172 pts which would still beat every other team this week. Very unexpected for me.

Crazy to think these are the only teams the Bears lost to (see below). The worst teams are GB and MIN that play each other tonight. So the only one team that Fields lost to will go into Week 18 under .500, and 3 of those losses were the collapses. DET 11-5 (collapse) CLE 11-5 (collapse) KC 10-6 (early season loss) TB 8-8 (early season loss) DEN 8-8 (collapse) (early season loss) GB 7-8 (early season loss) MIN 7-8 (Fields injury game) NO 8-8 (Bagent) LAC 5-10 (Bagent) In hindsight, this looks a lot better than I thought. 4 playoff teams, with at least 2 fringe playoff teams, meaning only the losing team tonight was the only really "weak" loss for Fields.

Steelers beating the Seahawks by 10 late in the 4th.

Wild to think after Moore, the receivers with the most receptions coming into this game were: Roschon - 31, Herbert - 16, Scott - 14, and Tonyan - 8. In total that is an average of 4 receptions per game for this group. They had 11 receptions today.

Bears currently #10. They can win next week and still draft 10th if GB beats MIN tonight and MIN beats DET next week AND LVR beats DEN next week. If LVR beats DEN next week, the Bears can pick no worse than #11. The only team that can leap them is if the loser of GB vs MIN loses in Week 18. So if GB loses tonight, and to the Bears in Week 18, they would pick 10th. If MIN loses tonight and to DET, they would leap CHI. If LVR loses to DEN next week, the Bears would pick no worse than #12. So the Bears are locked into 10-12th right now with a win next week. If they happen to lose, the best they could do is 8th (if NYJ and ATL win in Week 18), and no worse than 10th. So 8-10th. OVERALL - 8th best pick, 12th worst pick Not bad at all for a potential 8 win team in the hunt late in Week 17.

that was great to see, this team is having fun.

A ton of injuries early on, most of the defense missed time to start the season. Going 2-2 with a UDFA in the middle of the season. 5 straight home wins. Chance to split the division at 3-3 next week. For this game, it's the most points ATL allowed all season, they only allowed 30+ once (31 pts to MIN). Herbert has the 2nd highest rushing total in Week 17, Moore has the 2nd highest receiving total in Week 17.

What could've been 7 straight wins and 9-7 going into Week 18. 5-2 in last 7, only losses are to CLE and DET in those collapse losses.

The Bears defense leads the league with 22 INTs, SF has 21, BAL has 18.