adam

1. JAX 2-9 2. NYG 2-9 3. LVR 2-8 ------------ 4. NE 3-9 5. CAR 3-8 6. TEN 3-8 7. NYJ 3-8 8 CLE 3-8 ----------- 9. NO 4-7 10. CIN 4-7 11. DAL 4-7 12. CHI 4-7 13. IND 5-7 With the expected loss against the 10-1 Lions on Thanksgiving, the Bears will have lost 6 straight, 3 division games in back to back to back weeks AND 2 games in 4 days. That would drop them to 4-8 with 5 to play. DAL somehow beat WSH and may win a few more than I thought. CLE won, and NO have won 2 straight. TEN just beat HOU, so the Bears actually have a chance to creep into the top 5. I assumed #7 but that was with both TEN and CLE losing this week. Even with one win and finishing at 5-12, the Bears will probably get a top 10 pick. So that will be 3 picks in the top 40.

Allen was targeted 15 times in the loss. He may be a problem. Moore was targeted 7 times for 7 receptions. Kmet had 10 targets and 7 receptions. In the 5 straight losses, Allen has 56 targets, 24 receptions, 1 TD

Thru 11 games: 1. Moore - 566, needs 72 per game for 1K 2. Odunze - 518, needs 80 per game for 1K 3. Kmet - 422 4. Allen - 368, needs 105 per game for 1K 5. Scott - 0, needs 167 per game for 1K Both Moore and Odunze have a shot.

32-47, 68.1%, 340 yds, 7.2 Y/A, 2 TD, 0 INT, 103.1 Rating +33 rushing yards against MIN is one of the top 3 games against the MIN defense this year. He now has the Bears rookie record for passing in a season. 2nd highest passing game with 340 yards and 3rd 300-yd game. 4th multi-TD pass game. 9 TD and 1 INT since starting 2-4. He is up to 214 passing yards a game, which would put him at 3,638 for the season. To get to 3,839 (Bears team record), he would need to average 247 yards per game the rest of the way. He is averaging 285 per game since Brown took over as OC.

Yeah, pretty much. Also, if they just went for the XP, that last second FG would've won it.

That was absolutely on Caleb, but where is the dump off, hot route, no one open. He is forced to be Superman. That is going to happen.

The Flus defense is now all fluff. 4-man that gets no pressure with coverage that plays off? Hilariously bad.

There is zero doubt, absolutely zero doubt that Caleb Williams is elite, and a franchise QB. He just torched the Vikings vaunted defense for 330 passing yards and 2 TDs while scoring on back to back drives in less than 30 seconds. Unbelievable poise. Regardless of the outcome, we have our QB.

How Minnesota has scored 24 pts: 34 yard reception + Nick Mullen gets 3rd Down conversion - 3 pts Carter muffs punt - 7pts 69 yard reception - 3 pts FG Blocked + 35yd DPI - 7pts 45 yard reception - 7pts

Can you believe holding Justin Jefferson to 1 reception for 7 yards, 0 TDs on 4 targets and losing?

If it wasn't the Bears it is probably a good idea. If you get it, you can win with a TD+XP or tie with 2x FGs. If you don't get it, you can still tie with a TD+2PT.

I am glad Caleb finally got a passing TD, but man, I am so sick of targeting Allen, which missed on the 2pt attempt.

How Minnesota has scored 24 pts: Carter muffs punt - 7pts 69 yard reception - 3 pts FG Blocked + 35yd DPI - 7pts 45 yard reception - 7pts 100% coaching

Flus can take Hightower with him. Back to back blocked FGs in the last two weeks, now a muffed punt by Carter. Normally subpar coverage units. What does the Bears ST do well like they have a good coach?

So how bad is Matt Eberflus? He challenged another play call that was not overturned, now over a year since he got one correct. Then when faced with a 4th and 4, he runs the FG unit out to run them off, that only gave Caleb 15 seconds to get everyone set, pass is incomplete. Turnover on downs. It is like he finds a new way to lose every week, every half, every quarter, every drive.

About what we would expect for a first half. Bears losing 14-10. Flus with terrible time management at the end of the half. He refuses to blitz which gives Darnold all day long to throw, which has led to 3 huge plays for Minnesota. If not for a strip forced fumble by Owens, the Vikings would be up 21-10. Outside of 1 bad throw, Williams has looked solid. 2 drops so far, otherwise, Williams' stats would be better. Even against one of the best defenses in the NFL, Williams has some impressive halftime stats. Compare his to some of the other rookie QBs at half: Williams 16-22, 72.7%, 176 yds, 8.0 Y/A Daniels 9-16, 56.3%, 57 yds, 3.6 Y/A, 1 INT Maye 6-11, 54.5%, 49 yds, 4.5 Y/A

So now we have to sift thru the noise and figure out if Poles is actually good or not because we know the answer on Flus, it has never been more obvious that he is just a boob. For Poles, here are his 1-4th round draft picks, you have to hit on most of these and the 1st rounders have to become close to Pro Bowl level players: 2022 - Gordon - should've been OL Brisker - On IR Jones Jr - released 2023 - Wright - when not hurt, he is not playing like a top 10 pick, could've had Jalen Carter here Dexter - has improved from his rookie year, but still just a rotational guy Stevenson - showed some flashes in his rookie year, but now is the worst CB in the NFL Pickens - waste of a pick, should've been OL Johnson - decent backup RB Scott - healthy scratch all season in year 2 2024 - Williams - no-brainer pick, but Daniels and Nix have outperformed him so far, something to watch Odunze - I love Odunze, but Poles could've traded down and gotten Thomas Jr AND another pick that could've been used on an Edge, DT, or OL Amegadjie - Head scratcher with his known injury while other OL went after him are playing at elite levels. Could've had Goncalves, Zinter, Puni, Bortolini, or Limmer (6th round). If you take a step back, that is terrible roster construction, especially when the big money when to your MLB in FA. Edmunds and Allen take up $45M in cap space. Walker makes close to $9M. None of those guys are playing up to their contracts.

The top 3 have to be in the trenches, any OLman, DT, or Edge.

For this week, we have TB vs NYG, and NE vs MIA that will have draft consequences. Ideally, we would want NE and NYG to win this week, though unlikely. If TB and MIA win like expected, the Bears would drop to #12.

Sanders or Ward will both go in the top 10. Sanders will go 1 or 2. Travis Hunter may go #1 as well. Will Cambell is the beast OL out of LSU who will go in the top 10, so will Kelvin Banks out of Texas. I did a better deep dive, in reality, a lot would have to go right for every other team to get to 5 wins to allow the Bears to pick #1. At best they will probably draft between #5-7.

Looking at future games, the Bears are underdogs in every game. So there is a scenario where the Bears can get the #1 pick 3 years in a row, but super unlikely. Due to the crazy SoS, they will lose the tiebreaker to every team. The Bears currently draft 14th. Assuming they lose out and go 4-13. What would be the most likely pick range. It will obviously come down to the other teams below the Bears at the moment. 14. CHI 4-6, plays 0 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 13. TB 4-6, plays 6 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 8-9. 12. MIA 4-6, plays 4 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 7-10. 11. CIN 4-7, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 6-11. 10. NO 4-7, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 6-11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9. DAL 3-7, plays 4 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 8. CAR 3-7, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 7. NYJ 3-8, plays 3 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 5-12. 6. NE 3-8, plays 1 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. LVR 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 4. NYG 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 3. CLE 2-8, plays 2 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 3-14. 2. TEN 2-8, plays 3 of 7 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. 1. JAX 2-9, plays 4 of 6 against teams at 4-7 or worse. Projection 4-13. So if the Bears lose out, they would more than likely pick #7, with a possibility to move to #5. Due to bad teams playing each other, it is virtually impossible for more than 7 teams to finish at 4-13 or worse. 1. CLE 3-14 2. NE 4-13 3. JAX 4-13 4. TEN 4-13 5. NYG 4-13 6. LVR 4-13 7. CHI 4-13 ------------- 8. CAR 5-12 9. NYJ 5-12 10. DAL 5-12 If the Bears win 1 game, and finish 5-12, they would draft 10th. They could draft as high as 9th or as low as 12th. 1. CLE 3-14 2. NE 4-13 3. JAX 4-13 4. TEN 4-13 5. NYG 4-13 6. LVR 4-13 ------------- 7. CAR 5-12 8. NYJ 5-12 9. DAL 5-12 10. CHI 5-12 If the Bears win 2 games, and finish 6-11, they would draft 12th with a chance to draft 11th or 13th.

PFF is wild but in this case, I think they actually use the raw stat for drops. From other sites, it looks like Allen and Odunze each have 3 drops, Moore has zero apparently. I have no clue what a drop is anymore. I swear there have been passes that have hit Moore in the hands and he flat out dropped it.

Hell, they probably could've traded down and drafted Thomas, got a 2nd round pick and another pick in 2025.

Honestly, he is one of the worst HCs in the entire NFL over the last decade. At first they blamed the rebuild, then it was Fields, now what is the excuse?

Looking at unit EPA comparisons: CHI 24th OFF, 27th Pass, 12th Rush, TTT 2.86, QBP 38.1 MIN 1st DEF, 7th Pass, 1st Rush, TTT 2.78, QBP 37.2 On offense, Caleb won't really feel too much difference as his TTT and QBP are almost the same as what MIN has done. The biggest factor looks to be the rush defense. MIN 14th OFF, 13th Pass, 21st Rush, TTT 3.06, QBP 36.3 CHI 8th DEF, 3rd Pass, 20th Rush, TTT 2.93, QBP 34.4 On defense, MIN is actually a middle of the road offense. Outside of JJ, it is even less. The Bears will be forcing Darnold to throw faster than he is used to which may cause his pressure rate to go up.