adam

Most of the media loves the defense and just knows the offense is stuck in neutral and doesn't know why.

I guess it depends on what page you are looking at. In their Quarterbacks 2024 Draft Preview, they have Williams #1, Daniels #2: https://www.ourlads.com/story/default/2024-Draft-Preview-Quarterbacks/11509/dh/

That would be a haul. #3 could still be MHJ, so you could then use or trade down again with the Bears pick. #35 recoups the Sweat trade, and you still go into 2025 with an extra 1st and an extra 2nd.

Everything should be taken into consideration during an evaluation. I think you are increasing risk if you just immediately discount anything, whether it is good or bad. In those 5 games, Williams put up 322 yds/g, 12 Total TDs, 1 INT, while the offense averaged 34 pts a game and they still went 1-4.

That is one ugly sim, but based on the ARZ game, I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out like that.

The Bears defense is rolling, with most other offenses in the NFL, the Bears are probably undefeated since trading for Sweat.

I equate it to the Point Guard that gets some rebounds and hits a few 3-pointers from time to time, but turns the ball over and only gets a few assists.

My only concern is how far is Poles willing to drop from #1. If the Bears win another game, their pick is outside of the top 10 (probably 11), so does he really want to drop both picks outside of the top 5? My thinking is he will want a top 5 pick which would obviously limit who he can deal with.

Projection based on college passing sample size and production. The entire 2021 class was impacted by COVID lockdowns so there was a lot less tape on them coming out than normal. Williams has a lot more reps coming out than Fields, so he has a lot more passing attempts to look at. In the 200+ or so I have seen (not just highlights), Williams passing game looks more calm than Fields. It looks more natural for Williams for some reason. I guess he makes it look easier?

If the Bears get the first pick and decide to trade out of it, here are some teams with draft capital and a need at QB. First off, I think once you get past 10, it is too much capital, so I will stick to the top 10 for now: 1. ARZ - Currently #2, could want to move up to secure their guy knowing someone will ultimately jump them. The value on something like this is tough, but 2x 2nd rounders would be the value based on the trade value chart. 2. WAS - Currently #3, Howell is benched, and they shedded some salary. This would now cost a future first with the swap and another mid round pick. Another option is the pick swap, Daron Payne and another high pick in 2025 (1st or 2nd). 3. NE - Currently #4, I don't think they will stick with Zappe. Maye seems like their prototypical guy. To move to one would cost a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd rounder. 4. TEN - Currently #7 - Do they really think Levis is the answer? If not, it would cost a 2025 1st, and a 2026 1st at the very least. 5. NYJ - Currently #9 - This would cost a 2025 1st, 2026 1st, and a 2nd 2025. 6. ATL - Currently #10 - This would cost a bundle, probably a 2025 1st, 2026 1st, and a 2027 1st (or a current star player). ATL could also go the Fields route and trade their 2nd and 3rd for him instead. LVR is interesting at #13, but not to move to #1, but to jump to #8, if the Bears stay there. That would net a 2nd rounder and a mid round pick. That is also interesting it they decided they wanted Fields instead. A team like LVR could trade a 2nd and a 3rd for him as well. For Fields in general, teams like LVR or ATL feel like the only teams with both a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the range that would make sense for Fields. This does not include all the other teams listed above minus NYJ who does not have a 2nd rounder in 2024.

Miller Moss? USC backup throws for 6 TDs in a bowl game against a ranked opponent, throwing to backups? Unless Louisville didn't have a bunch of players play, this looks really bad for Caleb Williams. If a backup can do that in his first game, in a bowl game no less, and put up 372 passing yards and 6 TDs, how much of your success was the offense? That is what the scouts have to decipher, but that does not look good for Caleb Williams fans.

He is tied with Bennett right now with 208. Next up Desmond Clark with 242, then Ditka with 315. At his current pace he would have an outside shot at passing Ditka in 2024, but would definitely in 2025, that would also put him in 6th all-time for Bears in receptions regardless of position. If he plays for the Bears for 10 years, he would pass Payton as the all-time leader in receptions.

I agree, stop throwing to Mooney at this point. He is worthless.

Absolutely, it would be nice to close out the last home game with a win and momentum going into the GB game.

In a macro view, he probably stays as he went from a 3-win to at least a 6-win team. On a micro level, I could see them moving on. So it will depend on if Poles views Flus as a success or a failure.

The TTT stat doesn't take into account scrambles with passes. So if Fields/Williams elude rushers, rollout, then throw it, that makes the time go up considerably. Russell Wilson used to have a super high TTT when he was doing the houdini act in the backfield, but since he would still throw it after 8 seconds, it would make like his TTT was really high, but in reality his normal drop backs were in the normal range. What the holding the ball looks like is the patting of the ball or the hitch then throw making the throw late in the progression or window. Fields does that a lot. Williams does it some but not at the same rate as Fields does.

More love: Kmet was the highest graded TE in Week 16 (PFF) and only played a half. Kmet is the 7th highest graded TE for the year (behind only Kittle, Kelce, Hockenson, McBride, Andrews, LaPorta). Kmet is tied for 7th in First Downs with 35. Kmet is tied for the lead with only 1 drop and 0 fumbles lost on the season.

I've seen an interesting thought, highly unlikely, but just say the Chargers make Justin Herbert available in a trade for the #1 pick. If you are the Bears, are you better with Herbert, Williams + Cap Space, or Fields + Pick 1 in 2024 (MHJ)?

The one thing that is notable about Williams is he is pretty decisive and has a quick drop back. That makes the timing routes look so much smoother. Then he still has the ridiculous passes like these: One concern of mine is him holding the ball with one hand when he is in the pocket, that has led to some fumbles and will need to be cleaned up.

ATL is 25th overall in DVOA, 24th on offense, 19th on defense. This is a game the Bears should win.

The Bears defense now up to 16th in DVOA. The team overall is 23rd with the offense 22nd. So the entire team has trended away from the bottom 5 all year.

Yep, you started with 8 wins, then dropped to 7. Looks like one of those two will be right.

5-8 heading into the CLE game, so they exceeded your prediction by 5 games, Flus is CotY!

Records a little off, but PHI, SF, DET, DAL all locked in, NO, SEA, and CHI still in the hunt, lol.

The attitude stuff does worry me. How will vets handle that persona in an NFL locker room, especially if they lost their beloved QB for him. Time will tell how that all works out. Mahomes is literally Kermit, and that worked out. Mayfield was kind of a punk and he looks good on his 3rd team. Mitch Trubisky drove a Camry.