Why the Bears should stick with Cutler

[adam]

I think if you added Watt, Suh, or Kuechky on the Bears team that they would have won at best one more game. The defense just didn't have the talent. I do think even a Wilson level upgrade, that the Bears could have won 3 more as you said. I don't think they were a play off team either. I also don't think they will be next year, no matter who the quarterback is. That's part of the reason I want to see the transition done now.

 

Part of the D's problem, was the lack of offense. It obviously isn't their biggest problem, but when your offense isn't moving the ball or worse turn it over, it doesn't help a poorly talented and coached defense.

Very tough to assess exactly how many wins they would be worth. Wilson has a lower completion %, TD and INT rates, but a higher Y/A. So Wilson would have had around 25 TDs to 9 INTs with 63% Completions and 4200 yards passing using Cutler's attempts. I would have to figure out how much 9 less INTs would be, the extra yardage and 3 less TDs. For the other players, I think those players would be worth more than one extra win. JJ Watt was arguably the best player in the NFL and had an impact on almost every single play. In a way, he possibly would have more impact than Wilson if added to a team since Wilson would not have as much impact on all running plays where Watt is disruptive on every play from at least a scheme standpoint. Suh is huge and impacts both the pass and run, and Kuechly is the QB of the defense. I believe those 3 individually are worth 2-4 games if they are on our team.

[50england50]

until this year I was a cutler supporter and now I'm indifferent. I would forget his play this year and ask the question can you win a game with him and history says yes. The next question is can you improve on the QB position or does getting rid of him disadvantage you.

1 can the Bears afford to use a high pick on a QB in the next 2 years and is there a QB in the draft good enough to take.

2 can the Bears improve the QB position in free agency

3 can the Bears trade Cutler without giving up draft picks and paying his salary

 

Regarding point 1 I don't consider the Bears in. Position to draft a QB we need a RT, MLB, C , CB, FS, SS and a speedy WR. Also is their a QB that you would take in round 1 to 3.

 

Regarding point 2 there is no free agent QB out there that will improve the Bears

 

 

Regarding point 3 the only way I trade Cutler is at the least we don't give a draft pick or pay any of his salary. He is still a veteran QB and in my mind still has value.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Very tough to assess exactly how many wins they would be worth. Wilson has a lower completion %, TD and INT rates, but a higher Y/A. So Wilson would have had around 25 TDs to 9 INTs with 63% Completions and 4200 yards passing using Cutler's attempts. I would have to figure out how much 9 less INTs would be, the extra yardage and 3 less TDs. For the other players, I think those players would be worth more than one extra win. JJ Watt was arguably the best player in the NFL and had an impact on almost every single play. In a way, he possibly would have more impact than Wilson if added to a team since Wilson would not have as much impact on all running plays where Watt is disruptive on every play from at least a scheme standpoint. Suh is huge and impacts both the pass and run, and Kuechly is the QB of the defense. I believe those 3 individually are worth 2-4 games if they are on our team.

Yet if you follow Vegas odds, JJ Watt doesn't have near the factor on the line than an elite QB. It isn't even close. It is something like 2-3 points. Even guys like Gronk in his prime, wasn't more than a couple points where as a Peyton Manning might be a 14 point impact on a line.

[adam]

Yet if you follow Vegas odds, JJ Watt doesn't have near the factor on the line than an elite QB. It isn't even close. It is something like 2-3 points. Even guys like Gronk in his prime, wasn't more than a couple points where as a Peyton Manning might be a 14 point impact on a line.

I was looking at Pro Football Reference's AV (approximate value) rating and based on this year's stats, Wilson would be comparable to Watt and Kuechly. Suh would be slightly lower because of the lack of stats. Then if you consider the difference between Cutler and Wilson vs Watt and Allen, there is a bigger value difference between Watt and Allen. Same could be said for Kuechly and (any Bears LB). If you compared Earl Thomas to Chris Conte (using the AV rating), the difference is actually comparable to Wilson vs Cutler.

 

For odds, they are trying to balance the betting, so the more the public bets on one side, the more the line goes up. So a bigger impact on a line is more to do with public opinion than the actual impact on the game. Favorites are not always the better team, they are just the team with the most bets on their side.