Cutting Cutler

['TD']

When Cutler's status this year is debated, it's often the bird in the hand argument that is brought up. Who are you going to get to replace him? The answer is not a simple answer. There are no exceptional older veterans floating around this year. The draft is always a big question mark no matter how great the prospect. A large majority want to see defense, defense, defense, and maybe some O-Line in the draft. That's completely understandable, as this team has holes. But I think of Cutler as addition by subtraction.

 

Cutting Cutler brings a hefty price tag this year, a $19.5 million dollar price tag to be exact. That is a scary number when you see it. So let's keep him around right, a bird in the handt? I say no, why throw good money after bad?

 

If Cutler is cut and signs with a new team, the Bears recoup the money he makes this year from the new team. Now, I'm not saying Cutler will make $10

million this year with another team. I think it's more likely he will sign a contract similar to Jared Allen's contract. Allen's first year he was only paid $3 million, but will make $12.5 million the next guaranteed. That would give the team he signs with cap space this year, while letting Cutler have a decent contract in 2016.

 

If this happens, it will cost the Bears $0 more to cut him this year than if they kept him. The team will have that $16.5 to use in free agency the next year to fill all those needs we mentioned earlier, and to use to resign their own guys. That sounds pretty darn nice to me.

 

But let's say the Bears do keep him this year, what will the cost be to keep him or to cut him? In 2016 Cutler's cap number will be $17 million if he stays. However, if you decide to cut him then, it will cost $13 million. So that means we keep Cutler for 2 years, and than can move on right? Not so fast. There will be $8 million in cap space if he is cut after 2 years. So basically, if Cutler is back this year, he will be back for 3 years.

 

The question isn't who can replace Cutler this year, but in the next three. My answer is, I don't know, but that's a lot of time. I also didn't know that the Super Bowl QB's would have the careers they have. I didn't know that Drew Brees would recover from a career threatening injury to become one of the best in the business. I'm sure the customer in aisle 3 eighteen years ago never thought Kurt Warner would joining the hall of fame this year.

 

We all agree this team needs great drafts. Reasonably, the holes can't be filled in one or two drafts. The Bears will need to search for young free agents with potential like Will Young. The Bears also need to retain players like Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long fat contracts. Why keep the bird that annually craps in your hand? Why throw good money spent after bad? Take the hit this year, to free up the money the next 2. Financially, it makes more sense

[Mongo3451]

Why discuss cutting Cutler? He has trade value. Why not erase the cap hit and gain a pick?

['TD']

Why discuss cutting Cutler? He has trade value. Why not erase the cap hit and gain a pick?

I agree with you that there will be takers, but a lot of the media and others speculate teams will shy away because of the contract. A trade is best option, as it would free up $12.5 million extra this year, and the team gets out of the contract.

 

I wanted to dispel the myth that the Bears would have to keep him, due to the contract, if there is not trade partner. The cap hit would ultimately be the same this year if he is kept vs being cut. In the future, there would be so much more money available. The Bears could sign 4 extra Willie Young type contracts in 2016, in comparison to if Cutler is retained this year.

[Stinger226]

When Cutler's status this year is debated, it's often the bird in the hand argument that is brought up. Who are you going to get to replace him? The answer is not a simple answer. There are no exceptional older veterans floating around this year. The draft is always a big question mark no matter how great the prospect. A large majority want to see defense, defense, defense, and maybe some O-Line in the draft. That's completely understandable, as this team has holes. But I think of Cutler as addition by subtraction.

 

Cutting Cutler brings a hefty price tag this year, a $19.5 million dollar price tag to be exact. That is a scary number when you see it. So let's keep him around right, a bird in the handt? I say no, why throw good money after bad?

 

If Cutler is cut and signs with a new team, the Bears recoup the money he makes this year from the new team. Now, I'm not saying Cutler will make $10

million this year with another team. I think it's more likely he will sign a contract similar to Jared Allen's contract. Allen's first year he was only paid $3 million, but will make $12.5 million the next guaranteed. That would give the team he signs with cap space this year, while letting Cutler have a decent contract in 2016.

 

If this happens, it will cost the Bears $0 more to cut him this year than if they kept him. The team will have that $16.5 to use in free agency the next year to fill all those needs we mentioned earlier, and to use to resign their own guys. That sounds pretty darn nice to me.

 

But let's say the Bears do keep him this year, what will the cost be to keep him or to cut him? In 2016 Cutler's cap number will be $17 million if he stays. However, if you decide to cut him then, it will cost $13 million. So that means we keep Cutler for 2 years, and than can move on right? Not so fast. There will be $8 million in cap space if he is cut after 2 years. So basically, if Cutler is back this year, he will be back for 3 years.

 

The question isn't who can replace Cutler this year, but in the next three. My answer is, I don't know, but that's a lot of time. I also didn't know that the Super Bowl QB's would have the careers they have. I didn't know that Drew Brees would recover from a career threatening injury to become one of the best in the business. I'm sure the customer in aisle 3 eighteen years ago never thought Kurt Warner would joining the hall of fame this year.

 

We all agree this team needs great drafts. Reasonably, the holes can't be filled in one or two drafts. The Bears will need to search for young free agents with potential like Will Young. The Bears also need to retain players like Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long fat contracts. Why keep the bird that annually craps in your hand? Why throw good money spent after bad? Take the hit this year, to free up the money the next 2. Financially, it makes more sense

As far as cutting Cutler, I think his guaranteed money is his no matter what he does. So anyway you look at it, it costs 16.5 against the cap.

If the powers that be perceive him to be the best choice we have, he will be our QB and they will coach around his weaknesses.

 

here is his contract details:

 

Contract Details

Total Value: $126,700,000 (avg. $18,100,000/year; $38,000,000 fully guaranteed)

7th highest of 105 QB contracts

Year Base Salary (Guaranteed) Bonuses Cap

Number

Dead Money & Cap Savings

 

Prorated Roster Workout Other

2012 $7,700,000 $1,400,000 $0 $500,000 $0 $9,600,000

2013 $8,470,000 $1,400,000 $0 $500,000 $0 $10,370,000

2014 $17,500,000 $22,500,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $18,500,000

2015 $15,500,000 $15,500,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $16,500,000 $19,500,000 ($3,000,000)

2016 $16,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $17,000,000 $3,000,000 $14,000,000

2017 $12,500,000 $1,000,000 $2,500,000 $0 $0 $16,000,000 $2,000,000 $14,000,000

2018 $13,500,000 $1,000,000 $2,500,000 $0 $0 $17,000,000 $1,000,000 $16,000,000

2019 $17,500,000 $0 $2,500,000 $0 $0 $20,000,000 $0 $20,000,000

2020 $19,200,000 $0 $2,500,000 $0 $0 $21,700,000 $0 $21,700,000

Those details are off of Over the cap website.

Its looks confusing being transfered but is clear if you look on the page.

If we cut him our dead money this year is 19.5 and save 3

If we cut him next year our dead money is 3. and we save 14, so I think your information is wrong.

I think the sooner he goes the sooner we can start fresh but if we have to pay him and no other good choices, it would be dump to not keep him around.

[Chitownhustla]

I thought it was

 

16 millions cut this year and 10 mil if cut next????

['TD']

As far as cutting Cutler, I think his guaranteed money is his no matter what he does. So anyway you look at it, it costs 16.5 against the cap.

If the powers that be perceive him to be the best choice we have, he will be our QB and they will coach around his weaknesses.

 

here is his contract details:

 

Contract Details

Total Value: $126,700,000 (avg. $18,100,000/year; $38,000,000 fully guaranteed)

7th highest of 105 QB contracts

Year Base Salary (Guaranteed) Bonuses Cap

Number

Dead Money & Cap Savings

 

Prorated Roster Workout Other

2012 $7,700,000 $1,400,000 $0 $500,000 $0 $9,600,000

2013 $8,470,000 $1,400,000 $0 $500,000 $0 $10,370,000

2014 $17,500,000 $22,500,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $18,500,000

2015 $15,500,000 $15,500,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $16,500,000 $19,500,000 ($3,000,000)

2016 $16,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $17,000,000 $3,000,000 $14,000,000

2017 $12,500,000 $1,000,000 $2,500,000 $0 $0 $16,000,000 $2,000,000 $14,000,000

2018 $13,500,000 $1,000,000 $2,500,000 $0 $0 $17,000,000 $1,000,000 $16,000,000

2019 $17,500,000 $0 $2,500,000 $0 $0 $20,000,000 $0 $20,000,000

2020 $19,200,000 $0 $2,500,000 $0 $0 $21,700,000 $0 $21,700,000

Those details are off of Over the cap website.

Its looks confusing being transfered but is clear if you look on the page.

If we cut him our dead money this year is 19.5 and save 3

If we cut him next year our dead money is 3. and we save 14, so I think your information is wrong.

I think the sooner he goes the sooner we can start fresh but if we have to pay him and no other good choices, it would be dump to not keep him around.

 

You can't go by those sites. Cutler's type of contract is confusing when trying to use their figures, as it doesn't accurately account for Cutler's guarantees that get locked in March of the year prior. Here's basically a break down of Cutler's contract the next 3 years.

 

Emery converted $5 of Cutler's money into a bonus. That effectively spread that $5 million over 5 years. Every year cap hit is a million higher than his salary. If anytime he is cut, what is left of that money becomes dead money.

 

Cutler's salary this year will be $15.5 million, his cap hit will be $16.5 million during the year, but it will cost $19.5 million against the cap if he is cut. However, the Bears have it written into his contract that if he is cut, his salary with a new team will be deducted from the Bears cap hit. So his salary with his new team will help kick that number down a few million.

 

On March 13th of this year, 10 million of Cutler's 2016 contract becomes guaranteed. Their site doesn't account for that 10 million guaranteed. There will still be 3 million in dead money in 2016, so if he is cut after this year the Bears will have 13 million in dead money from his contract. His cap number will be $17 million that year, $16 million in base money plus $1 million of the dead money. The Bears will effectively save $4 million vs his cap number, but you will still have $13 million tied up in dead money you can't spend in 2016 if he is kept this year but cut after.

 

In 2016, there is $6 million that gets guaranteed in for 2017. There will also be 2 million left in dead money. $8 million in dead cap space will be there in 2017 if he is kept the next 2 years.

['TD']

I thought it was

 

16 millions cut this year and 10 mil if cut next????

You have to account for that dead cap money from converting $5 million last year to a signing bonus. It will be his $15.5 million this year + $4 million left in dead money. Next year it will be 13 million or $10 million plus the $3 left in dead money.

 

 

[scs787]

HIGHLY doubt it happens. It is possibke, but ya, I dont see it. Not without a replacement.

 

MAYBE next year as I'm sure that whole thing you wrote about what other teams pay will be added to our cap still holds true (matter a fact I think that's true of every contract with gaurenteed money on it).

 

I think behind Fox's leadership Jay and the offense will have a solid year.

[Stinger226]

You can't go by those sites. Cutler's type of contract is confusing when trying to use their figures, as it doesn't accurately account for Cutler's guarantees that get locked in March of the year prior. Here's basically a break down of Cutler's contract the next 3 years.

 

Emery converted $5 of Cutler's money into a bonus. That effectively spread that $5 million over 5 years. Every year cap hit is a million higher than his salary. If anytime he is cut, what is left of that money becomes dead money.

 

Cutler's salary this year will be $15.5 million, his cap hit will be $16.5 million during the year, but it will cost $19.5 million against the cap if he is cut. However, the Bears have it written into his contract that if he is cut, his salary with a new team will be deducted from the Bears cap hit. So his salary with his new team will help kick that number down a few million.

 

On March 13th of this year, 10 million of Cutler's 2016 contract becomes guaranteed. Their site doesn't account for that 10 million guaranteed. There will still be 3 million in dead money in 2016, so if he is cut after this year the Bears will have 13 million in dead money from his contract. His cap number will be $17 million that year, $16 million in base money plus $1 million of the dead money. The Bears will effectively save $4 million vs his cap number, but you will still have $13 million tied up in dead money you can't spend in 2016 if he is kept this year but cut after.

 

In 2016, there is $6 million that gets guaranteed in for 2017. There will also be 2 million left in dead money. $8 million in dead cap space will be there in 2017 if he is kept the next 2 years.

you seem to have put a lot of effort into this, but to create a situation that costs us nothing this year seems a bit unrealistic.

[Stinger226]

You can't go by those sites. Cutler's type of contract is confusing when trying to use their figures, as it doesn't accurately account for Cutler's guarantees that get locked in March of the year prior. Here's basically a break down of Cutler's contract the next 3 years.

 

Emery converted $5 of Cutler's money into a bonus. That effectively spread that $5 million over 5 years. Every year cap hit is a million higher than his salary. If anytime he is cut, what is left of that money becomes dead money.

 

Cutler's salary this year will be $15.5 million, his cap hit will be $16.5 million during the year, but it will cost $19.5 million against the cap if he is cut. However, the Bears have it written into his contract that if he is cut, his salary with a new team will be deducted from the Bears cap hit. So his salary with his new team will help kick that number down a few million.

 

On March 13th of this year, 10 million of Cutler's 2016 contract becomes guaranteed. Their site doesn't account for that 10 million guaranteed. There will still be 3 million in dead money in 2016, so if he is cut after this year the Bears will have 13 million in dead money from his contract. His cap number will be $17 million that year, $16 million in base money plus $1 million of the dead money. The Bears will effectively save $4 million vs his cap number, but you will still have $13 million tied up in dead money you can't spend in 2016 if he is kept this year but cut after.

 

In 2016, there is $6 million that gets guaranteed in for 2017. There will also be 2 million left in dead money. $8 million in dead cap space will be there in 2017 if he is kept the next 2 years.

so where do you get your information? I doubt if you walk in to the Bears office and they show you a contract.

['TD']

HIGHLY doubt it happens. It is possibke, but ya, I dont see it. Not without a replacement.

 

MAYBE next year as I'm sure that whole thing you wrote about what other teams pay will be added to our cap still holds true (matter a fact I think that's true of every contract with gaurenteed money on it).

 

I think behind Fox's leadership Jay and the offense will have a solid year.

I'm not so sure that is true with every contract. The Bears still ate all of Peppers 8 million+ this past year. I can't remember if that was guaranteed money or money already paid out. I heard multiple sources say that was the deal with Cutler's contract.

 

With that in mind, you are still looking at at least 10 million in cap space in 2016 if Cutler is here this year. Why mortgage $10 million in future cap space, to have Cutler here for one year? I don't see his value over replacement being worth that $10 million of future money with all of this teams needs.

['TD']

you seem to have put a lot of effort into this, but to create a situation that costs us nothing this year seems a bit unrealistic.

It's not that it costs nothing. It's that you are locked in to at least a $16.5 million cap number year no matter what. I'm saying it cost very little more to cut him, compared to the cost of keeping Cutler around.

 

 

['TD']

so where do you get your information? I doubt if you walk in to the Bears office and they show you a contract.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/...ion-thereafter/

 

This is the original article that has been quoted and used all over in respect to his contract. The rest is applying the 5 million that was converted during last offseason, applying it to the contract, and accounting for the dead cap space it adds which is simple.

 

Edit: Plus, the 10 million and 6 million grantees will be mentioned in most articles you read now on the contract, and became common knowledge. All I am doing is adding the portion of dead money left to those numbers.

[scs787]

I'm not so sure that is true with every contract. The Bears still ate all of Peppers 8 million+ this past year. I can't remember if that was guaranteed money or money already paid out. I heard multiple sources say that was the deal with Cutler's contract.

 

With that in mind, you are still looking at at least 10 million in cap space in 2016 if Cutler is here this year. Why mortgage $10 million in future cap space, to have Cutler here for one year? I don't see his value over replacement being worth that $10 million of future money with all of this teams needs.

 

I think this year with all the money they have, we'll see most, if not all holes filled this year. Unless they're high on one of the QBs not named Jameis or Marcus I just don'tsee it happening.

 

One thing Feely said in his interview is without Cutlers leadership you need someone else to step up. I don't think that necessarily has to be a position player, I think that man will be John Fox.

 

I know we're coming from 2 different sides of the fence here in that I personally think you can win with Cutler and you borderline hate the guy so we'll never see eye to eye on this but ya. I'm not letting Cutler go the year Mark Sanchez is the best QB available in FA and the QB class is incredibly weak.

['TD']

I think this year with all the money they have, we'll see most, if not all holes filled this year. Unless they're high on one of the QBs not named Jameis or Marcus I just don'tsee it happening.

 

One thing Feely said in his interview is without Cutlers leadership you need someone else to step up. I don't think that necessarily has to be a position player, I think that man will be John Fox.

 

I know we're coming from 2 different sides of the fence here in that I personally think you can win with Cutler and you borderline hate the guy so we'll never see eye to eye on this but ya. I'm not letting Cutler go the year Mark Sanchez is the best QB available in FA and the QB class is incredibly weak.

I really don't hate Cutler. I laughed when he was on the league.

 

But yes, we are far off. I see no possible way that ALL the holes can be filled this year, or even close to it. There are just too many needs at starter. I think the team has good depth players but needs 2 safeties, a starting CB, 3 starting linebackers, a DE, likely a fat guy in the middle, one starting offensive lineman, a speed WR, a KR, and of course a QB. I can't see that being done this year, and some ppl on this team can fill those slots. As of now, I still see those as needs.

 

A team can pull Tim Tebow out of retirement and win. That doesn't mean you keep a QB that lead the league in turn overs 2 of 6 years, and mortgage $10 million of cap space in the future.

I just think it would be easier to win with the unknown replacement QB and the players you can bring in with $10 million plus in 2016.

 

[ChileBear]

I really don't hate Cutler. I laughed when he was on the league.

 

But yes, we are far off. I see no possible way that ALL the holes can be filled this year, or even close to it. There are just too many needs at starter. I think the team has good depth players but needs 2 safeties, a starting CB, 3 starting linebackers, a DE, likely a fat guy in the middle, one starting offensive lineman, a speed WR, a KR, and of course a QB. I can't see that being done this year, and some ppl on this team can fill those slots. As of now, I still see those as needs.

 

A team can pull Tim Tebow out of retirement and win. That doesn't mean you keep a QB that lead the league in turn overs 2 of 6 years, and mortgage $10 million of cap space in the future.

I just think it would be easier to win with the unknown replacement QB and the players you can bring in with $10 million plus in 2016.

Okay, stop it. We all know that Cutler is staying. Why?

1 Who else are we going to get that is a real QB?

2 We are in a $ hole with him, so he's what we got.

3 The coaches we now have need a shot to "turn him around"

 

That's why imDo, Cutler stays at least one more year. Stop the wondering, he is our QB for 2015.

[scs787]

Well we'll just have to agree to disagree on the state of the franchise and the state of the QB position.

 

I see 6 spots on D that need to be filled. CB, 2 safeties, 2 linebackers, and with Ego/Ratliff's versatility 1 d lineman. I really think at least 3 of those can be filled in FA, possibly 4. With how high the Bears are drafting I really think they can come away with 3 suitable starters.

 

A speed WR/KR can be taken late.

['TD']

Okay, stop it. We all know that Cutler is staying. Why?

1 Who else are we going to get that is a real QB?

2 We are in a $ hole with him, so he's what we got.

3 The coaches we now have need a shot to "turn him around"

 

That's why imDo, Cutler stays at least one more year. Stop the wondering, he is our QB for 2015.

The money hole gets bigger, which is my whole point. You'll likely see the continue through 2016 and 2017 if it's not plugged in 2015.

 

I don't see any coach being able "turn him around" in his 10th year at age 32.

[Chitownhustla]

The money hole gets bigger, which is my whole point. You'll likely see the continue through 2016 and 2017 if it's not plugged in 2015.

 

I don't see any coach being able "turn him around" in his 10th year at age 32.

 

The money hole gets larger in dead cap space not actual money paid to Cutler.

 

 

['TD']

The money hole gets larger in dead cap space not actual money paid to Cutler.

Well he gets paid, but I am talking to cap space used over the next 3 years. This year there is at least a $16.5 money hole. 2 Years and the money hole has grown to between $29.5(cut)-$41.5 million(retained). 3 years and your money hole is between $41.5(cut) to $46.5(retained).

[Stinger226]

The money hole gets bigger, which is my whole point. You'll likely see the continue through 2016 and 2017 if it's not plugged in 2015.

 

I don't see any coach being able "turn him around" in his 10th year at age 32.

Culter is what he is, he wont be turned around, what coaches will do is minimize his weaknesses. Unless Pace pulls a rabbit out of his hat, there will unfortunately not be a better choice at QB. Draft is very average, the top 2 have so many questions not worth the high pick. FA totally sucks. It will take 3 years to be a contender, in the meantime they will systematically add pieces. Since there is no qb options Culter will give life to being our qb. Your money loss doesnt include paying someone to replace him. So they will bite the bullet this year, assess our options next year and build a winner. It is not a system problem to work out. It doesnt matter what we think, they are smarter than us and will make the proper call on everything. If they screw it up, then the circle continues, but I am hopeful they got it right this time.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Why are we worried about the money? We are 10th best out of 32 teams. We have money to add talent. Next year the cap goes up again, and we can shed Allens 11million, Fortes 8, maybe cut Jennings and be looking great cap wise again. I really don't see Cutler leaving, he will be on the team this coming season and next. Next year I like the QB class. Cook, Hackleberg, and Cardale Jones will be first round selections. All are NFL pocket passers. Plan on forfeiting future draft picks to move up for one and we can let them learn or push Cutler to the bench. If that is the plan, they will need the tools in place for a young qb to develop. Good Oline, WRs, running game.

['TD']

Your money loss doesnt include paying someone to replace him

I didn't include the replacement, as it is hard to assess.

 

Claussen isn't under contract. I don't think Fales will be retained under the new regime, if he is, I can't see him as Cutler's only back up.

Draft picks money is already set aside. No matter who gets picked in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, whatever, they will be paying that money no matter what. So the rookies money is irrelevant.

The question then is, do the Bears bring in a veteran to back up Cutler if he is retained? If so, what quality of back up will he bring in?

I think at most, a veteran brought in to compete will be in the Kyle Orton range of $5 million. If the Bears go for a back up that was similar to Claussen this year, we are looking at less than a million. So we are talking no difference to $5 million a year difference in the previous cap hole. I think it will be in the middle and not much of a difference.

 

Why worry about the money?

Because the money matters. Jeffery counts as $1.5 million against the cap this year and it's his last year. He'll be looking for a pretty hefty contract this yea, his number will likely go up to over $10 million a year next year. Kyle Long counts $2.4 million against the cap this year and will likely go up to the 9 million range after next year.

 

Those alone offset most of the Allen and Forte contracts, and as the cap goes up so does the cost of new contracts. More money means the better the players you can bring in, and the more that you can bring in.

[adam]

The only way I would trade/cut Cutler is if I knew who was replacing him.

 

I feel like the defense was so bad the last few years that we wouldn't have done much better with anyone else anyway. So gaining cap space is great, but that doesn't guarantee anything.

 

One crazy scenario I thought about has us in a 3 way trade with Philly and Tennessee where Philly drafts Mariota, we get Foles, and Tennessee gets Cutler and some picks.

[scs787]

The only way I would trade/cut Cutler is if I knew who was replacing him.

 

I feel like the defense was so bad the last few years that we wouldn't have done much better with anyone else anyway. So gaining cap space is great, but that doesn't guarantee anything.

 

One crazy scenario I thought about has us in a 3 way trade with Philly and Tennessee where Philly drafts Mariota, we get Foles, and Tennessee gets Cutler and some picks.

 

Cutlers INT% was 3.2....Know what Foles was???? 3.2

 

Jay also had the higher TD% 4.2 vs 5.0.

 

He's cheaper yes, but I'm not sure hes an upgrade.

 

 

Overall I'm right there with you in that the way we get rid of Cutler is with a replacement. I may be alone on this but I really think Fox can do what he did in Carolina and Denver and turn this team around in a year, and I think that happens with Jay as the QB.