Who will be at #7

[Stinger226]

Having this high of a pick for the Bears is new territory we havent visited in along time.

In viewing dozens of mock drafts and player ratings several names keep recurring.

 

these 4 are in every article: Winston

Mariota

Gregory

Williams

 

we will never see these for names at #7.

 

Amari Cooper-Shane Ray-Brandon Scherff-Danny Shelton

 

the next 4 most common names to show up: Our pick will come from these 4 names

 

There is merit to select each of these 4 as pertaining to our #7 pick

 

I think with Fox, Pace,Fangio they will look to establish a dominate player to build around on defense.

 

With FAgency happening before the draft, who will sign will lead to who our pick will be.

 

Houston is the only OLB with going after but his cost or a franchise tag will remove him from consideration

Knighton is probably the only plum NT to grab in free agency and has ties to Fox.

 

We all concede that they will be going to a 3-4 but I think if you look at Fangio he is more driven by the flexibility to play hybrid defenses, he was in a true 3-4 only 20% of the time while in SF.

 

#1 I think they will strife to get younger and the free agents they go after will be on the younger side.

#2 I think they will target a few players but they will be no big money contracts on the horizon this year.

#3 I think our pick could be from between Shelton and Ray but neither is capable at being flexible to hybrid defenses I think we will be in.

#4 I think we might drop back a few spots and get some extra picks and end up having a surprise pick we havent in our thought process.

Here are some names to look at if we drop back

Fowler- can play both DE and OLB and is rated high

Dupree- can play both DE and OLB and brings a productive senior year and high draft rating

Armstead- is a DE but can play DE and DT in several different lineups.( I wont like this pick, he was not productive in college despite great size and speed)

 

 

So my take that we will move back and get some extra picks and grab Dupree in the first round.

[scs787]

I have zero problem moving back to say 12 with the Browns. Along with those name you mention there still could be names like Shelton, Collins, Beasley, Eli Harold (who is underrated), Goldman(if they think Ego/Rat can handle NT), and if push comes to shove you could always take an OT.

 

 

I have a feeling Knighton is more of a Jack Del Rio guy and will go to to Oakland so I still have my eye on Shelton. Shelton IMO is certainly capable of playing in any kind of hybrid defense. Hell, the guy were all talking about Terrence Knighton has played in a 4-3 most of the time, Vince Wilfork has also been a 4-3 player......Ray I tend to agree with, he looks like a strict 3-4 OLB who's speed would get neutralized ala SMC as a 4-3 DE.

 

 

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Shelton can play both fronts imo. Armstead's role was to take on blockers in his role at Oregon, so his numbers do not reflect. They say he is very strong, especially with having length.

 

Just imagine if Cooper falls to 7, and Cleveland offers 12 & 19.

1-12 Vic Beasley OLB

1-19 Arik Armstead DE

2-39 Ty Sambrailo OT

3-71 Ellis McCarthy NT

4-103 Tyler Lockett WR

 

 

[scs787]

Shelton can play both fronts imo. Armstead's role was to take on blockers in his role at Oregon, so his numbers do not reflect. They say he is very strong, especially with having length.

 

Just imagine if Cooper falls to 7, and Cleveland offers 12 & 19.

1-12 Vic Beasley OLB

1-19 Arik Armstead DE

2-39 Ty Sambrailo OT

3-71 Ellis McCarthy NT

4-103 Tyler Lockett WR

 

Probably wishful thinking. The value for the 7th pick on the draft value chart is 1,500. The 12th pick is 1,200, and the 19th is 825. So in terms of the draft value chart we're talkin 1,500 vs 2,025.

 

I'd be happy with 12 (1,200) and 43 (470) plus maybe an added late round pick just to sweeten the pot, lets say a 6th.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Probably wishful thinking. The value for the 7th pick on the draft value chart is 1,500. The 12th pick is 1,200, and the 19th is 825. So in terms of the draft value chart we're talkin 1,500 vs 2,025.

 

I'd be happy with 12 (1,200) and 43 (470) plus maybe an added late round pick just to sweeten the pot, lets say a 6th.

I know the draft trade value chart, but if the Bears and Browns believe he is the third best talent, then he is worth 2200. That chart is not the official, but it is a good definition of relative worth. That's why is used Cooper in my post. Very unlikely he falls, Jax, Oak, Was, and NY all have a WR need.

[GakMan23]

trade down? hell no. anyone remember when we traded down to get such amazing talent in the likes of Rex GROSSman and Michael, I didn't last 4 years in the NFL, Haynes?

[scs787]

trade down? hell no. anyone remember when we traded down to get such amazing talent in the likes of Rex GROSSman and Michael, I didn't last 4 years in the NFL, Haynes?

 

Eh, just because something didn't work before doesn't mean you shouldn't ever do it again.

 

Plus ttoday's athletes are getting better and better and drafts are getting deeper and deeper. Trading down a few spots would still get us a very good player along with the potential for another good player we wouldn't have been able to get before.

[GakMan23]

Eh, just because something didn't work before doesn't mean you shouldn't ever do it again.

 

Plus ttoday's athletes are getting better and better and drafts are getting deeper and deeper. Trading down a few spots would still get us a very good player along with the potential for another good player we wouldn't have been able to get before.

 

 

When you draft farther down, the pool of talent has been decreased and you have a lesser chance of getting an all pro type player. This discussion has been had every draft and statistics PROVE that the farther down the draft you choose the less chance you have of getting an all pro type player.

[scs787]

When you draft farther down, the pool of talent has been decreased and you have a lesser chance of getting an all pro type player. This discussion has been had every draft and statistics PROVE that the farther down the draft you choose the less chance you have of getting an all pro type player.

 

 

A lot still depends on the situation. What was done in FA, and who is on the board though of course. Say they do add Knighton in FA and Shane Ray is off the board. In that situation, where we're looking at guys like Fowler, Beasley, Dupree etc, I'd rather trade down the 5 spots, still take one of those guys and add a 2nd rounder.

 

In that situation would rather have Fowler or Dupree/Beasley and a 2nd rounder.

[bradjock]

trade down? hell no. anyone remember when we traded down to get such amazing talent in the likes of Rex GROSSman and Michael, I didn't last 4 years in the NFL, Haynes?

 

You can't throw that out as being bad unless you quantify what we should have done that would have been any better.

 

We were desperate for QB. So are you suggesting we should have stayed at #4 and drafted Byron Leftwich? Blah.

 

Ideally, we make that trade and draft Troy Polomalu at #14 instead of Haynes. Except we didn't need a safety at the time. It's revisionist history.

 

On trading down, we have to look at who we would be giving up when we traded down. For example, we don't want to trade out of the #7 spot to see a 3-4 linebacker taken that would have improved our team. If we trade down to a team who takes a WR, that's awesome.

[scs787]

You can't throw that out as being bad unless you quantify what we should have done that would have been any better.

 

We were desperate for QB. So are you suggesting we should have stayed at #4 and drafted Byron Leftwich? Blah.

 

Ideally, we make that trade and draft Troy Polomalu at #14 instead of Haynes. Except we didn't need a safety at the time. It's revisionist history.

 

On trading down, we have to look at who we would be giving up when we traded down. For example, we don't want to trade out of the #7 spot to see a 3-4 linebacker taken that would have improved our team. If we trade down to a team who takes a WR, that's awesome.

 

And even then when talking about 3-4 LB unless Ray is there I'm still comfortable trading down because I believe its a crapshoot between Fowler, Beasley, Dupree, and even Eli Harold.

 

 

[Stinger226]

When you draft farther down, the pool of talent has been decreased and you have a lesser chance of getting an all pro type player. This discussion has been had every draft and statistics PROVE that the farther down the draft you choose the less chance you have of getting an all pro type player.

Trading back is ok, if you dont slide to far down. IF we traded with Cleveland and got 12 and 43. AS scs stated there are several in the same tier for edge rushers, so if they think they are good enough, it would be worth it. At 43 you get another potential starter, providing our new regime knows how to draft.

[Stinger226]

And even then when talking about 3-4 LB unless Ray is there I'm still comfortable trading down because I believe its a crapshoot between Fowler, Beasley, Dupree, and even Eli Harold.

I personally think Dupree will be the best of the lot, but Dan Durkin from the score, has been saying some good things about Fowler, and I think he is a bright guy, he puts in the work to check these players out.

[scs787]

I personally think Dupree will be the best of the lot, but Dan Durkin from the score, has been saying some good things about Fowler, and I think he is a bright guy, he puts in the work to check these players out.

 

Ya see, that's kinda the thing. We all love Shane Ray, you think Dupree could be the best of the lot, and I've see Fowler and Beasley both drafted ahead of Ray in some mocks. All 4 of those guys could be big time players and it's hard to distinguish who the top dog is. Obviously our scouts will have their opinion on the matter, but I'm not so sure there's a wrong pick. If we're sitting there at 7 and there are 3 or all 4 still there I wouldn't hate to see the Bears drop down a few slots, still grab one of them while also picking up an added 2nd rounder.

 

All that said I still have my man crush on Danny Shelton and would take him assuming we don't add Knighton. The 2R is still rich with OLBs like Kikaha, Orchard, Mauldin, Golden, and perhaps Eli Harold drops that far.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

trade down? hell no. anyone remember when we traded down to get such amazing talent in the likes of Rex GROSSman and Michael, I didn't last 4 years in the NFL, Haynes?

IIRC, the guy the Jets moved up for was a gigantic bust and also the guy we were supposedly interested in. While we didn't knock it out of the park with those traded picks, we got far more production out of those two than the Jets did with Robertson or whatever his name was (the Dlinemen).

[ASHKUM BEAR]

IIRC, the guy the Jets moved up for was a gigantic bust and also the guy we were supposedly interested in. While we didn't knock it out of the park with those traded picks, we got far more production out of those two than the Jets did with Robertson or whatever his name was (the Dlinemen).

 

Good thing they rebounded with Tillman and Briggs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds after that trade. Taking Polamalu would have been great over Haynes and then taking Robert Mathis over Todd Johnson S would have put us over the top.

 

 

[Lucky Luciano]

You can't throw that out as being bad unless you quantify what we should have done that would have been any better.

 

We were desperate for QB. So are you suggesting we should have stayed at #4 and drafted Byron Leftwich? Blah.

 

Ideally, we make that trade and draft Troy Polomalu at #14 instead of Haynes. Except we didn't need a safety at the time. It's revisionist history.

 

On trading down, we have to look at who we would be giving up when we traded down. For example, we don't want to trade out of the #7 spot to see a 3-4 linebacker taken that would have improved our team. If we trade down to a team who takes a WR, that's awesome.

 

here is what we SHOULD have done...

 

IF QB was a desperate pick for the bears by angie (which i DOUBT):

 

1. moved up 3 slots and drafted carson palmer. it was the time to make this move for a franchise QB who looked to fit the bill.

2. if the bengals won't trade down we draft byron leftwich. he was tough as nails with potential to be a good qb. there were definately injury concerns though so i 'might' have passed. that said, i can't believe we were in total desperation for a QB if we waited until our 2nd pick in the first round to get grossman.

 

IF we can't get palmer and leftwich is too much of an injury gamble this is what we do...

 

draft jordan gross at the #4 slot. while we may be able to limp by with an injured jim miller and shane mathews we, without any doubt, needed a LT.

 

we had the horrendous mike gandy the previous year, 2002, and started him in 2003 also at LT. the following year, 2004 we sported the amazing Q. mitchell. so by 2004 we would have had a pro-bowl LT in gross and a pro-bowl RT in tait who we paid the moon for to be mediocre as a LT. we had a great C and a very good RG in villareal. that would have looked pretty good as our offensive line for the next 6 years.

 

QB and LT were KEY positions of need for the bears and almost always go high in the draft. the only other consideration would be a DE or CB in that slot and that was the least of our worries at that time. if you have the chance to draft a QB or LT you have to take it.

 

remember we were running the shoop-a-dope offense that relied on running the ball 3 yds with a cloud of dust and bubble screens for our passing attack. we NEEDED a good T for that aspect of the game, not to mention, to keep jim miller off the IR.

[AZ54]

Ya see, that's kinda the thing. We all love Shane Ray, you think Dupree could be the best of the lot, and I've see Fowler and Beasley both drafted ahead of Ray in some mocks. All 4 of those guys could be big time players and it's hard to distinguish who the top dog is. Obviously our scouts will have their opinion on the matter, but I'm not so sure there's a wrong pick. If we're sitting there at 7 and there are 3 or all 4 still there I wouldn't hate to see the Bears drop down a few slots, still grab one of them while also picking up an added 2nd rounder.

 

All that said I still have my man crush on Danny Shelton and would take him assuming we don't add Knighton. The 2R is still rich with OLBs like Kikaha, Orchard, Mauldin, Golden, and perhaps Eli Harold drops that far.

 

History says one of these 4 players will be a bust. 2 will be average good players. 1 will be a perennial Pro Bowl player. If you know what you are doing you stay at 7 and have your choice among the four players and take the Pro Bowler. Beasely reportedly played around 225-230lb and that's not big enough to hold up in the running game which already is his weakness. There is speculation he will bulk up for the combine but won't run there and instead will drop weight and then run at his pro day. With many similar traits and/or upside in one aspect or the other, the combine is going to do a lot to sort out these players.

[Mongo3451]

History says one of these 4 players will be a bust. 2 will be average good players. 1 will be a perennial Pro Bowl player. If you know what you are doing you stay at 7 and have your choice among the four players and take the Pro Bowler. Beasely reportedly played around 225-230lb and that's not big enough to hold up in the running game which already is his weakness. There is speculation he will bulk up for the combine but won't run there and instead will drop weight and then run at his pro day. With many similar traits and/or upside in one aspect or the other, the combine is going to do a lot to sort out these players.

There is something to be said for taking matters into your own hands. Some do that by standing pat with their pick, some pay the numbers game to see what sticks. Playing armchair GM, I'm first and foremost a BPA guy. But if I don't see that guy, I become a numbers guy.