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PFF: Matt Forte 25th best RB in football


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Take it at fast value but was surprised to see that ranking pulled together. He wasn't even rated highly from a receiving perspective (which makes me question the entire rating process PFF put together). He certainly wasn't an elite football player last year. He got a lot of garbage stats and run blocking wasn't good but I can't remember a special move / play he made last season. I like Forte a lot but in a deep RB draft and with Carey on board, the money you free up could help you land 2 starting caliber players (shore up oline / defense).

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Take it at fast value but was surprised to see that ranking pulled together. He wasn't even rated highly from a receiving perspective (which makes me question the entire rating process PFF put together). He certainly wasn't an elite football player last year. He got a lot of garbage stats and run blocking wasn't good but I can't remember a special move / play he made last season. I like Forte a lot but in a deep RB draft and with Carey on board, the money you free up could help you land 2 starting caliber players (shore up oline / defense).

That is an example of PPF and all stats doesnt necessary give you a clear picture of valve. He would be taken in the top 10 if not top 5 in the league.

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Fortes 3.9 YPC ranked 25th among RBs with 100+ carries.

 

Yes he caught a lot of balls but that's more a product of what the offense became last year more than anything. His 7.9 yard per catch ranked 20th among RBs who caught more than 25 balls.

 

Yes, the OL was banged up which had a lot to do with it, but I think Forte is about to hit that wall, if he hasn't already. He's been worked to the ground.

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Fortes 3.9 YPC ranked 25th among RBs with 100+ carries.

 

Yes he caught a lot of balls but that's more a product of what the offense became last year more than anything. His 7.9 yard per catch ranked 20th among RBs who caught more than 25 balls.

 

Yes, the OL was banged up which had a lot to do with it, but I think Forte is about to hit that wall, if he hasn't already. He's been worked to the ground.

I wonder if he would restructure his deal? Definately take a pay cut or maybe spread it his left over guarantee over two years. He is still an effective back and would benefit in a lesser role imo. He has golden hands and vision running the ball. Run a two back scheme and have him split out as a slot wr, 6-2 218 with 4.45 speed.

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Not really a shocker to me, I just don't think he is that low. I would say in the 10-15 range based on last year's stats alone. If you consider the offense, team, and circumstances, then he easily jumps into the 5-10 range. The offense was completely dysfunctional, he was the outlet on over 100 of Cutler's throws and the team never really established the running game.

 

So looking at the efficiency of the numbers, it is easy to see why they had him outside the top 20. Besides the receptions, Forte had his worst rushing year since 2009. He was 27th for RB's with a 3.9 YPC (over 100 carries) and had only 1 rush more than 20 yards. Cutler had 3. According to FBO, he was 18th in DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb), which measures the value per play. Mark Ingram had a 4.3 YPC, was 14th in DVOA, and had 5 rushes longer than 20 yards.

 

It is funny because a lot of the media was high on Rashad Jennings (NYG), yet he only had a 3.8 YPC and 1x 100 yard game. Chris Johnson is supposedly washed up, yet he had 4.3 YPC, and 4 rushes longer than 20 yards. Interestingly, Bilal Powell had 4.3 YPC, and Chris Ivory had 4.1 YPC, all from the same team.

 

However, in the end, I am not against letting him go at his current price tag. Especially if we can get comparable performance while adding other pieces to improve the team for the same cap hit.

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That is an example of PPF and all stats doesnt necessary give you a clear picture of valve. He would be taken in the top 10 if not top 5 in the league.

A year ago I would have agreed, however, I didn't see Forte making plays last year. I saw a guy who basically got a lot of garbage dump offs and yards. A lot of that was the system, but again, the guy who would extend a play or make an extra guy miss in the open field wasn't there and there were quite a few times where I saw a play thinking Forte was going to break it and instead it went for a minimal gain (where a two years ago it would have been another story).

 

PS: Forte is awesome and will go down as one of my favorite Bears of this generation. Plays hard, great attitude, hard working, etc. With the cap hit and a deep RB draft, it is tough to win when you are paying your RB top money (especially when you are repairing other areas). End of the day you can't just cut everyone though, but if Forte is going to want more money and a long-term deal, I just don't know that it makes sense at his age (and given where we are as a team). If we were ready to win now, clearly you aren't getting rid of him, but realistically I think we are in a 1-2 year rebuilding program and by that point, the value Forte brings isn't there. I will caveat this by saying if we are drafting a young QB who we think will start early, than I like the idea of Forte cause that weapon should help the young QB's development. However, I'd rather see 9M go into our line than the backfield.

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That is ridiculous. PFF stats, like lots of stats, don't prove a thing. And PFF stats have certainly looked stupid numerous times before.

 

Iffy OL + QB issues + offensive scheme issues = offensive implosion

 

And that is passing OR rushing.

 

Having said that, I agree about the notionof this team's rebuilding status, and that Forte would be worth a decent amount in trade right now. It would hurt to see him go, but you have to dive in if you are going to rebuild.

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Count me as one of the guys who definitely doesn't want to see Matt leave. I'm not disagreeing with those who feel it's time to part ways and get something for him, I just hate to see the second best Bears RB in my lifetime (Walter being #1 obviously) let go while he was still VERY productive. Neal Anderson is the only other guy even close. Matt produces, gives it his all, and plays 3 downs. I think he's got 3 years left in him, minimum. And because of his age we're not talking about huge numbers to resign him, IMO. I might approach him about his contract amounts next year but I'd love to see him back for at least next year. Not sure if we need his money for other things anyway since you can only sign so many guys in FA.

 

 

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Said it once, and I'll say it again. To rid the team of an OFFENSIVE TALENT right now doesn't make a lot of sense. Sure last year was tough but I think it fair to say it wasn't just Forte that stunk it up. We have a new coach and GM because of the mess that became our team, not because Forte was "non-productive" last year (or not as much as he is normally). With the new offensive philosophy going forward and that being it will probably involve zone blocking, who's to say that Forte couldn't suddenly have a resurgence? And going back to my original thought of ridding ourselves of one of the offensive talents on the team for an unknown through the draft? When we should be focusing more on the defense?

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That sounds about right. I never, ever see him run meaningful yards. Flex him out and or let him be a slot receiver but he's not a running back.

 

Forte is not a running back? I'm not even sure how to respond to that other than to say I strongly disagree. Whether or not we should keep him is another story. Typically running backs start to decline sharply in performance in their late 20s. It's a tough decision for Pace and the coaching staff.

 

Peace :dabears

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