Lemon's Final Mock

[lemonej]

1. Brandon Scherff OT Iowa not completely comfortable with either tackle so I take him here and move Bushrod to the RT spot.

 

2.Eric Kendricks ILB UCLA this may be a pipe dream but I like this prospect a lot and believe he will be a game changer.

 

3. Sammie Coates WR Auburn hopefully he is still on the board at this spot and we have a replacement for Marshall.

 

4. Ibraheim Campbell SS Northwestern more competition at the weakest spot in the secondary.

 

5. Karlos Williams RB Fla ST a good candidate for the new RB for committee that coach Fox favors.

 

6. Justin Cox CB Miss St. more competition and help for the secondary.

[jason]

Two thoughts:

 

1. Do we need...

A] SS to play now

B] FS for the future

c] Both

 

Id rather see a FS or both get drafted over just a SS. But if Only SS is drafted, i hope it is Collins on a trade back. Pairing him with Rolle would be nasty.

 

2. I still don't like the a RB being picked.

 

Otherwise I love the first three rounds.

[Stinger226]

1. Brandon Scherff OT Iowa not completely comfortable with either tackle so I take him here and move Bushrod to the RT spot.

 

2.Eric Kendricks ILB UCLA this may be a pipe dream but I like this prospect a lot and believe he will be a game changer.

 

3. Sammie Coates WR Auburn hopefully he is still on the board at this spot and we have a replacement for Marshall.

 

4. Ibraheim Campbell SS Northwestern more competition at the weakest spot in the secondary.

 

5. Karlos Williams RB Fla ST a good candidate for the new RB for committee that coach Fox favors.

 

6. Justin Cox CB Miss St. more competition and help for the secondary.

I would be ok with that, we have so many needs , you can make the case for any position.

[Guest TerraTor]

That draft is nothing short of awful

[jason]

That draft is nothing short of awful

 

At this point, every time you post negativity it makes me crack up. You'd be mad if the Bears gave you season tickets in a skybox that had a fully stocked bar, all you can eat wings, and a Hooter's girl server who gives BJs at half time.

[dawhizz]

At this point, every time you post negativity it makes me crack up. You'd be mad if the Bears gave you season tickets in a skybox that had a fully stocked bar, all you can eat wings, and a Hooter's girl server who gives BJs at half time.

Only at half time?

[Chitownhustla]

At this point, every time you post negativity it makes me crack up. You'd be mad if the Bears gave you season tickets in a skybox that had a fully stocked bar, all you can eat wings, and a Hooter's girl server who gives BJs at half time.

 

 

and if you are going to trash someone else's mock why not give some reasons or better options.

[Chitownhustla]

I would be ok with that, we have so many needs , you can make the case for any position.

 

 

SO TRUE!!!!!

 

Pace's job is to build a winner for the next 10 years not this year. With the amount of holes the Bears have getting the best players possible no matter the position is going to help.

 

 

I am in the build the Oline and Dline to help the rest camp. If they went OT I would not be pissed. If they went Beasley I would be happy. If the DT fell from USC I would be happy.

 

 

 

When you look at the Bears needs and age of players they already have there really is no position that is off limits at any point of the draft.

 

 

 

They key term is SUSTAINED SUCCESS.

[Chitownhustla]

Only at half time?

 

 

I agree, one per quarter!!!

[adam]

Trying to place a value on each pick, using the CBS Sports Big Board, that draft would be less than the value of the slots. It would be the equivalent to losing a late 3rd round pick. The only pick not considered a reach (according to CBS) was Sammie Coates.

 

It is also illegal on the interwebs to have a "final" mock draft this far out.

[killakrzydav]

I bitch too if I can't get them during commercial breaks

[lemonej]

Trying to place a value on each pick, using the CBS Sports Big Board, that draft would be less than the value of the slots. It would be the equivalent to losing a late 3rd round pick. The only pick not considered a reach (according to CBS) was Sammie Coates.

 

It is also illegal on the interwebs to have a "final" mock draft this far out.

 

I'm saying this is the last time I will do one before the draft so whatever your last statement means has no bearing on what I'm doing when it comes to the draft. I am just a poster on a fan board nothing more..

[lemonej]

Two thoughts:

 

1. Do we need...

A] SS to play now

B] FS for the future

c] Both

 

Id rather see a FS or both get drafted over just a SS. But if Only SS is drafted, i hope it is Collins on a trade back. Pairing him with Rolle would be nasty.

 

2. I still don't like the a RB being picked.

 

Otherwise I love the first three rounds.

I'm thinking that I prefer OL pick to move either Long out to ROT or Bushrod to ROT. I believe that the OL and DL still need shoring up and for the SS pick of Campbell I have like this player in a couple of my mocks. I'm not so high on Collins as you are and I wish they would have taken Clinton-Dix last year but, I'm satisfied with Fuller. Just Like QB this is a weak Safety draft also and taking Collins because we need help at the position is not what I think would be best.

[lemonej]

and if you are going to trash someone else's mock why not give some reasons or better options.

 

Thank you!

[jason]

Trying to place a value on each pick, using the CBS Sports Big Board, that draft would be less than the value of the slots. It would be the equivalent to losing a late 3rd round pick. The only pick not considered a reach (according to CBS) was Sammie Coates.

 

It is also illegal on the interwebs to have a "final" mock draft this far out.

 

 

How exactly are you doing this?

[adam]

How exactly are you doing this?

 

I know it is not an exact science, but I start out with a big board; so for simplicity's sake I used CBS Sports (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings) since they update their board pretty regularly. Then I use the Draft Value chart (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php) to give each player a value that corresponds with their Big Board ranking. Then every draft position also gets the current value off the chart (ie. Bears #7=1500). So if the Bears select Kevin White, using this method, they are drafting "at value", and if they select Winston, Mariota, Williams, Fowler, Cooper, or Beasley, they will be gaining value from the pick (according to CBS Big Board). I then apply this method to each round to come up with an overall draft score (using the cumulative + and - for each slot and pick), and that value can be put back into the trade value chart to see how much value or lack of value you had in the draft. Using this rudimentary method, Lemon's mock lost us the equivalent of a late 3rd round pick (basically meaning several players were reaches and could've been selected later by trade backs in the total value of a late 3rd rounder).

 

Any system will have flaws and the CBS Big Board is not necessarily tuned for the Bears, so it is more of a coarse assessment, but somewhat accurate. It should at least be able to determine if you have a great draft (positive score), good draft (right around zero), or bad draft (negative score). In a way I was trying to reverse engineer what the team will do and then run multiple simulations to determine maximum value based on each scenario (ie. going WR first, etc).

[jason]

I know it is not an exact science, but I start out with a big board; so for simplicity's sake I used CBS Sports (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings) since they update their board pretty regularly. Then I use the Draft Value chart (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php) to give each player a value that corresponds with their Big Board ranking. Then every draft position also gets the current value off the chart (ie. Bears #7=1500). So if the Bears select Kevin White, using this method, they are drafting "at value", and if they select Winston, Mariota, Williams, Fowler, Cooper, or Beasley, they will be gaining value from the pick (according to CBS Big Board). I then apply this method to each round to come up with an overall draft score (using the cumulative + and - for each slot and pick), and that value can be put back into the trade value chart to see how much value or lack of value you had in the draft. Using this rudimentary method, Lemon's mock lost us the equivalent of a late 3rd round pick (basically meaning several players were reaches and could've been selected later by trade backs in the total value of a late 3rd rounder).

 

Any system will have flaws and the CBS Big Board is not necessarily tuned for the Bears, so it is more of a coarse assessment, but somewhat accurate. It should at least be able to determine if you have a great draft (positive score), good draft (right around zero), or bad draft (negative score). In a way I was trying to reverse engineer what the team will do and then run multiple simulations to determine maximum value based on each scenario (ie. going WR first, etc).

 

Interesting concept. I hadn't thought of it that way. Of course, the one huge flaw is what we're discussing in regards to the concept of BPA, need-based drafting, and value-based drafting. If there is a glaring hole somewhere, it's likely there will be a "reach" pick according to the big board, and your metrics will yield a negative. Still, interesting thought.

[adam]

Interesting concept. I hadn't thought of it that way. Of course, the one huge flaw is what we're discussing in regards to the concept of BPA, need-based drafting, and value-based drafting. If there is a glaring hole somewhere, it's likely there will be a "reach" pick according to the big board, and your metrics will yield a negative. Still, interesting thought.

Yeah, that is why you would have to do a Big Board for the team first to take those needs into account. It is like planning in a vacuum (internal Big Board with team considerations only) with external influences (other teams drafting same pool of players) impacting those decisions.

[jason]

Yeah, that is why you would have to do a Big Board for the team first to take those needs into account. It is like planning in a vacuum (internal Big Board with team considerations only) with external influences (other teams drafting same pool of players) impacting those decisions.

 

Agreed. I think you could take just about any mock, realistic anyway, and you'd find that there would be a built-in loss.

 

[lemonej]

I know it is not an exact science, but I start out with a big board; so for simplicity's sake I used CBS Sports (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings) since they update their board pretty regularly. Then I use the Draft Value chart (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php) to give each player a value that corresponds with their Big Board ranking. Then every draft position also gets the current value off the chart (ie. Bears #7=1500). So if the Bears select Kevin White, using this method, they are drafting "at value", and if they select Winston, Mariota, Williams, Fowler, Cooper, or Beasley, they will be gaining value from the pick (according to CBS Big Board). I then apply this method to each round to come up with an overall draft score (using the cumulative + and - for each slot and pick), and that value can be put back into the trade value chart to see how much value or lack of value you had in the draft. Using this rudimentary method, Lemon's mock lost us the equivalent of a late 3rd round pick (basically meaning several players were reaches and could've been selected later by trade backs in the total value of a late 3rd rounder).

 

Any system will have flaws and the CBS Big Board is not necessarily tuned for the Bears, so it is more of a coarse assessment, but somewhat accurate. It should at least be able to determine if you have a great draft (positive score), good draft (right around zero), or bad draft (negative score). In a way I was trying to reverse engineer what the team will do and then run multiple simulations to determine maximum value based on each scenario (ie. going WR first, etc).

 

My favorite draft site is nfldraftscout.com aka csbsport.com and I have used that site as mys reference point four 4 years as well as gbndraftreport.com and nfl.com. I'm not familiar with what you are doing but I simply scroll the prospect rankings and find the players at the Bears respective picks and go 5 below and 10 above,figuring those are the players in play and select one from that pool. I'm not trying to figure out values or anything else just what player available looks like a fit at that pick.