Draft Order Tracker

[adam]

MNF Lions vs. Saints: The Lions started off 0-5. They haven't looked horrible lately. I think the Lions win.

 

Week 16 games of interest:

1. Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9) - Both teams have wretched defenses, and the Jags get hammered by good offenses. Saints win in a shootout.

2. 49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9) - The 49ers have sucked. I'm saying Lions go two in a row.

3. Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9) - The Colts are in a freefall.

4. Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8) - Bills win; they have been competitive with everyone, and Dallas has issues.

5. Chargers (4-10) @ Raiders (6-8) - Oakland is really not that bad. They win.

6. Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10) - The Steelers are on fire.

7. Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8) - I hate to say this, but Jamies Winston and Doug Martin are going to torch the Bears.

 

1. Titans

2. Browns

-----

3. Chargers - 4-11

4. Ravens - 4-11

5. Cowboys - 5-10

6. Bears - 5-10

7. Jags - 5-10

-----

Saints - 6-9

Colts - 6-9

Dolphins - 6-9

Bills - 7-8

Raiders - 7-8

Buccaneers - 7-8

 

So after next week the Bears jump to #6?!

I am confused, 49ers lose, then disappear? Cowboys lose then go to 5-10? So you have to add the 4-11 49ers back in, and put us behind the Jags due to SoS, so we would be 8th based on those scenarios (passing DET and MIA).

[jason]

I am confused, 49ers lose, then disappear? Cowboys lose then go to 5-10? So you have to add the 4-11 49ers back in, and put us behind the Jags due to SoS, so we would be 8th based on those scenarios (passing DET and MIA).

 

Dammit! I knew I shouldn't have tried to do that with two kids screaming at me and running wild.

[adam]

Dammit! I knew I shouldn't have tried to do that with two kids screaming at me and running wild.

No worries, I took your projections and added multiple scenarios for our last 2 games and all the Week 17 games (based on favorites), I will show in multiple posts:

 

Two losses with Week 17 projections:

 

1. TEN 3-13 (IND) .489

2. CLE 3-13 (PIT) .536

3. SD 4-12 (DEN) .516

4. BAL 4-12 (CIN) .518

5. SF 4-12 (STL) .547

6. DAL 4-12 (WAS) .543

--------------------------

7. JAX 5-11 (HOU) .466

8. CHI 5-11 (DET) .536 (w/ 2 losses it looks like we will do no better than 8th - possibly 7th if Jags win a game)

--------------------------

9. NO 6-10 (ATL) .511

10. MIA 6-10 (NE) .473

11. PHI 6-10 (NYG) .514

--------------------------

12. TB 7-9 (CAR) .482

13. NYG 7-9 (PHI) .498

14. IND 7-9 (TEN) .507

15. OAK 7-9 (KC) .507

16. BUF 7-9 (NYJ) .518

17. STL 7-9 (SF) .529

18. DET 7-9 (CHI) .534

[adam]

Both one win game scenarios (out of our last two), we finish 12th both times.

 

Beat TB/Lose DET with Week 17 projections:

1. TEN 3-13 (IND) .489

2. CLE 3-13 (PIT) .536

3. SD 4-12 (DEN) .516

4. BAL 4-12 (CIN) .518

5. SF 4-12 (STL) .547

6. DAL 4-12 (WAS) .543

--------------------------

7. JAX 5-11 (HOU) .466

--------------------------

8. NO 6-10 (ATL) .511

9. MIA 6-10 (NE) .473

10. TB 6-10 (CAR) .482 (TB rises from 12 to 10)

11. PHI 6-10 (NYG) .514

12. CHI 6-10 (DET) .536 (we drop from 8 to 12)

--------------------------

13. NYG 7-9 (PHI) .498

14. IND 7-9 (TEN) .507

15. OAK 7-9 (KC) .507

16. BUF 7-9 (NYJ) .518

17. STL 7-9 (SF) .529

18. DET 7-9 (CHI) .534

Beat DET/Lose TB with Week 17 projections:

1. TEN 3-13 (IND) .489

2. CLE 3-13 (PIT) .536

3. SD 4-12 (DEN) .516

4. BAL 4-12 (CIN) .518

5. SF 4-12 (STL) .547

6. DAL 4-12 (WAS) .543

--------------------------

7. JAX 5-11 (HOU) .466

--------------------------

8. NO 6-10 (ATL) .511

9. MIA 6-10 (NE) .473

10. PHI 6-10 (NYG) .514

11. DET 6-10 (CHI) .534 (DET rises from 18 to 11)

12. CHI 6-10 (DET) .536 (we drop from 8 to 12)

--------------------------

13. TB 7-9 (CAR) .482

14. NYG 7-9 (PHI) .498

15. IND 7-9 (TEN) .507

16. OAK 7-9 (KC) .507

17. BUF 7-9 (NYJ) .518

18. STL 7-9 (SF) .529

[adam]

Nightmare scenario, we win both and drop all the way to 18th due to SoS:

 

Two wins with Week 17 projections:

 

1. TEN 3-13 (IND) .489

2. CLE 3-13 (PIT) .536

3. SD 4-12 (DEN) .516

4. BAL 4-12 (CIN) .518

5. SF 4-12 (STL) .547

6. DAL 4-12 (WAS) .543

--------------------------

7. JAX 5-11 (HOU) .466

--------------------------

8. TB 6-10 (CAR) .482 (TB rises from 12 to 10)

9. NO 6-10 (ATL) .511

10. MIA 6-10 (NE) .473

11. PHI 6-10 (NYG) .514

12. DET 6-10 (CHI) .534 (DET rises from 18 to 12)

--------------------------

13. NYG 7-9 (PHI) .498

14. IND 7-9 (TEN) .507

15. OAK 7-9 (KC) .507

16. BUF 7-9 (NYJ) .518

17. STL 7-9 (SF) .529

18. CHI 7-9 (DET) .536 (we drop from 8 to 18)

 

TLDR, we will pick between the 7-8th pick if we lose 2; we are basically locked in at #12 if we split our last two games, and drop all the way to 18th if we win our last two. Additionally, ATL is the last factor, if they lose two and we win two, we can actually drop to 19th. One win could potentially separate pick #8-#19 (crazy).

 

Two losses = 7-8th pick

Split = 12th pick

Two wins = 18-19th pick

[Chitownhustla]

Drafting 18 would suck. Either way Pace has a job to do, draft the best possible guy at 7 or 18. 7 makes his job a whole lot easier but there have been plenty of studs drafted at 18 or even after.

[adam]

Updated after OAK/SD game:

 

1. Tennessee Titans (3-11) - .489 (HOU, @IND) ~ 3-13

2. Cleveland Browns (3-11) - .535 (@KC, PIT) ~ 3-13

-----------------------------------------

3. San Diego Chargers (4-11) - .522 (@DEN) ~ 4-12

4. Baltimore Ravens (4-10) - .518 (PIT, @CIN) ~ 4-12

5. Dallas Cowboys (4-10) - .540 (@BUF, WAS) ~ 4-12

6. San Francisco 49ers (4-10) - .549 (@DET, STL) ~ 4-12

-----------------------------------------

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) - .462 (@NO, @HOU) ~ 5-11

8. Miami Dolphins (5-9) - .471 (IND, NE) ~ 5-11

9. New Orleans Saints (5-9) - .513 (JAX, @ATL) ~ 6-10

10. Detroit Lions (5-9) - .531 (SF, @CHI) ~ 7-9

11. Chicago Bears (5-9) - .540 (@TB, DET) ~ 5-11 (9th)

-----------------------------------------

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) - .478 (CHI, @CAR) ~ 7-9

13. New York Giants (6-8) - .496 (@MIN, PHI) ~ 6-10

14. Indianapolis Colts (6-8) - .504 (@MIA, TEN) ~ 8-8

15. Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) - .513 (WAS, NYG) ~ 7-9

16. Buffalo Bills (6-8) - .518 (DAL, NYJ) ~ 7-9

17. St. Louis Rams (6-8) - .531 (@SEA, @SF) ~ 7-9

18. Oakland Raiders (7-8) - .504 (@KC) ~ 7-9

 

8 of the 10 teams in the current top 10 were there after 8 games (MIA and NO joined after), we dropped from 9th to 11th, and HOU went from 10th to potential Division winner.

 

 

Down to 3 scenarios based on projections:

 

2 losses = 9th (or 8th if MIA beats IND)

1 win = 12th (almost every scenario locks us in at 12)

2 wins = 17th (or 18th if IND loses to MIA)

 

I really don't like the SoS tie-breaker, it is not our fault that we played good teams. We lose multiple draft positions based on SoS alone.

[jason]

Updated after OAK/SD game:

 

1. Tennessee Titans (3-11) - .489 (HOU, @IND) ~ 3-13

2. Cleveland Browns (3-11) - .535 (@KC, PIT) ~ 3-13

-----------------------------------------

3. San Diego Chargers (4-11) - .522 (@DEN) ~ 4-12

4. Baltimore Ravens (4-10) - .518 (PIT, @CIN) ~ 4-12

5. Dallas Cowboys (4-10) - .540 (@BUF, WAS) ~ 4-12

6. San Francisco 49ers (4-10) - .549 (@DET, STL) ~ 4-12

-----------------------------------------

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) - .462 (@NO, @HOU) ~ 5-11

8. Miami Dolphins (5-9) - .471 (IND, NE) ~ 5-11

9. New Orleans Saints (5-9) - .513 (JAX, @ATL) ~ 6-10

10. Detroit Lions (5-9) - .531 (SF, @CHI) ~ 7-9

11. Chicago Bears (5-9) - .540 (@TB, DET) ~ 5-11 (9th)

-----------------------------------------

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) - .478 (CHI, @CAR) ~ 7-9

13. New York Giants (6-8) - .496 (@MIN, PHI) ~ 6-10

14. Indianapolis Colts (6-8) - .504 (@MIA, TEN) ~ 8-8

15. Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) - .513 (WAS, NYG) ~ 7-9

16. Buffalo Bills (6-8) - .518 (DAL, NYJ) ~ 7-9

17. St. Louis Rams (6-8) - .531 (@SEA, @SF) ~ 7-9

18. Oakland Raiders (7-8) - .504 (@KC) ~ 7-9

 

8 of the 10 teams in the current top 10 were there after 8 games (MIA and NO joined after), we dropped from 9th to 11th, and HOU went from 10th to potential Division winner.

 

 

Down to 3 scenarios based on projections:

 

2 losses = 9th (or 8th if MIA beats IND)

1 win = 12th (almost every scenario locks us in at 12)

2 wins = 17th (or 18th if IND loses to MIA)

 

I really don't like the SoS tie-breaker, it is not our fault that we played good teams. We lose multiple draft positions based on SoS alone.

 

 

I don't like your projections.

Here are mine:

 

TEN - 2W - 5-11

CLE - 2W - 5-11

SD - 1W - 5-11

BAL - 2W - 6-10

DAL - 2W - 6-10

SF - 2W - 6-10

JAX - 2W - 7-9

MIA - 2W - 7-9

NO - 1W - 6-10 (L to JAX)

DET - 1W - 6-10 (L to SF)

CHI - 0W - 5-11

 

The Bears draft fourth!

[Stinger226]

I don't like your projections.

Here are mine:

 

TEN - 2W - 5-11

CLE - 2W - 5-11

SD - 1W - 5-11

BAL - 2W - 6-10

DAL - 2W - 6-10

SF - 2W - 6-10

JAX - 2W - 7-9

MIA - 2W - 7-9

NO - 1W - 6-10 (L to JAX)

DET - 1W - 6-10 (L to SF)

CHI - 0W - 5-11

 

The Bears draft fourth!

we should make top 10 , its a moot point unless we are top 5 so, 6 through 15 are close in talent

[adam]

I don't like your projections.

Here are mine:

 

TEN - 2W - 5-11

CLE - 2W - 5-11

SD - 1W - 5-11

BAL - 2W - 6-10

DAL - 2W - 6-10

SF - 2W - 6-10

JAX - 2W - 7-9

MIA - 2W - 7-9

NO - 1W - 6-10 (L to JAX)

DET - 1W - 6-10 (L to SF)

CHI - 0W - 5-11

 

The Bears draft fourth!

lol, nice. That would be awesome.

[Chitownhustla]

I don't like your projections.

Here are mine:

 

TEN - 2W - 5-11

CLE - 2W - 5-11

SD - 1W - 5-11

BAL - 2W - 6-10

DAL - 2W - 6-10

SF - 2W - 6-10

JAX - 2W - 7-9

MIA - 2W - 7-9

NO - 1W - 6-10 (L to JAX)

DET - 1W - 6-10 (L to SF)

CHI - 0W - 5-11

 

The Bears draft fourth!

 

Dear baby Jesus please let this happen!

 

[adam]

After early games (Week 16), due to win, we drop to 13th.

 

1. Tennessee Titans (3-12) - .489 (@IND) ~ 3-13

2. Cleveland Browns (3-12) - .535 (PIT) ~ 3-13

-----------------------------------------

3. San Diego Chargers (4-11) - .522 (@DEN) ~ 4-12

4. Dallas Cowboys (4-11) - .540 (WAS) ~ 4-12

5. San Francisco 49ers (4-11) - .549 (STL) ~ 4-12

-----------------------------------------

6. Miami Dolphins (5-10) - .471 (NE) ~ 5-11

7. Baltimore Ravens (5-10) - .518 (@CIN) ~ 5-11

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) - .462 (@NO, @HOU) ~ 5-11

9. New Orleans Saints (5-9) - .513 (JAX, @ATL) ~ 6-10

-----------------------------------------

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) - .478 (@CAR) ~ 6-10

11. Philadelphia Eagles (6-9) - .513 (NYG) ~ 7-9

12. Detroit Lions (6-9) - .531 (@CHI) ~ 7-9

13. Chicago Bears (6-9) - .540 (DET) ~ 6-10 (Proj: 12th)

14. New York Giants (6-8) - .496 (@MIN, PHI) ~ 6-10

15. St. Louis Rams (6-8) - .531 (@SEA, @SF) ~ 7-9

-----------------------------------------

16. Indianapolis Colts (7-8) - .504 (TEN) ~ 8-8

17. Oakland Raiders (7-8) - .504 (@KC) ~ 7-9

18. Buffalo Bills (7-8) - .518 (NYJ) ~ 7-9

[Mongo3451]

I hope we win next week too. From a player perspective, winners think about how they are going to win next week, not next year. I think our team needs this far more than a better draft position.

[jason]

I hope we win next week too. From a player perspective, winners think about how they are going to win next week, not next year. I think our team needs this far more than a better draft position.

 

I've played on many winning teams and many losing teams. I have obviously never played professionally, but I played and took my job in various sports professionally. These guys are professional and will prepare hard regardless of whether they win or lose. I don't believe meaningless, end of season games do anything for this team in 2016. These guys are playing for contracts, for jobs. If they don't, their asses get cut.

 

There isn't a single guy on the team who will be thinking in 2016, "Hell yeah, I remember those last two wins from last year, and I'm totally hyped as a result. We can ride that wave! If we win game one, it's kind of like being 3-0!"

 

Meaningless game. I love to watch the Bears win, but it's better for the future of the franchise if they lose.

[Connorbear]

I've played on many winning teams and many losing teams. I have obviously never played professionally, but I played and took my job in various sports professionally. These guys are professional and will prepare hard regardless of whether they win or lose. I don't believe meaningless, end of season games do anything for this team in 2016. These guys are playing for contracts, for jobs. If they don't, their asses get cut.

 

There isn't a single guy on the team who will be thinking in 2016, "Hell yeah, I remember those last two wins from last year, and I'm totally hyped as a result. We can ride that wave! If we win game one, it's kind of like being 3-0!"

 

Meaningless game. I love to watch the Bears win, but it's better for the future of the franchise if they lose.

 

I would agree with this on the professional level. However, I have seen high school teams who have carried over winning at the end of one season into the next.

 

Peace

[jason]

I don't see TEN, CLE, SD, DAL, SF, MIA, BAL, TB, or PHI winning the last week of the season.

 

New Orleans is beating Jacksonville handily, so that puts them as 6-9, and 5-10 respectively. They will both likely lose their last game.

 

If Chicago loses the last game of the season, there is a 6-10 logjam.

 

NO: 6-10

PHI: 6-10

TB: 6-10

CHI: 6-10

 

Do the Bears own the tie-breaker against any of those teams?

 

[jason]

I would agree with this on the professional level. However, I have seen high school teams who have carried over winning at the end of one season into the next.

 

Peace

 

I've seen just as many who lost at the end of the season, just missed the playoffs, felt they were better than their performance, and used it as a chip on their shoulder the following season.

[Mongo3451]

I've seen just as many who lost at the end of the season, just missed the playoffs, felt they were better than their performance, and used it as a chip on their shoulder the following season.

Like every Lovie Smith team. I'm calling BS. Winning is a habit. You will never convince me of a good reason to lose. Karma is a bitch.

[Chitownhustla]

Classic Bear season..... Can't hit field goals when the season is on the line and win the meaningless games when it doesn't matter.

 

Glad they beat Lovie. Hate seeing the draft position drop. As for the team using this victory for next season think about this: How many guys will still be here and how many new guys will be here that will have no clue if they won or lost the last two. Coach Fox talks about losing hard and forgetting about it and moving on to the next team. As soon as this season is over everyone starts thinking about next year. Some guys will be worrying about which team they will play for. The core of this team that will be here next year already knows they are close to being playoff contenders with some key additions.

[Bears4Ever_34]

I didn't expect them to lose out, so I'm not shocked that they won today. It would really suck, though, if they won next week.

[jason]

Like every Lovie Smith team. I'm calling BS. Winning is a habit. You will never convince me of a good reason to lose. Karma is a bitch.

 

Call BS all you want, it happens every season. It's so common that it's a cliche, "Next year is our year!" It was a key theme to the movie "The Program", a movie about football cliches! In fact, I think the concept you're promoting is BS. It's ridiculous when you really think about it in the structure of today's NFL.

 

Winning often becomes a habit because there are great players on teams. I don't care how much really bad players want to win, it has nearly nothing to do with whether they gain confidence from a random win. They're still bad players and they will most likely lose more games than they win. With the current NFL, with players and coaches bouncing all over the place, and the extreme parity, it more often comes down to a few superstars than it does any concept of a streak, or habit. Just look at the Bears for the last decade and you can see this is true.

 

2004 5-11 Lost last 4, so next season should be worse, right?

2005 11-5 Lost last 2, so next season should be worse, right?

2006 13-3 Lost the Super Bowl. Clearly a team on the downfall.

2007 7-9 Won last 2. I guess that SB loss led to this, and not the QB carousel.

2008 9-7 Lost last 1. Orton rode the last 2 games in 2007 to lead this team.

2009 7-9 Won last 2. Things went south, must have been that last game, and not the 26 Cutler INTs.

2010 11-5 Lost last 1. Good thing Aromashodu turned into Randy Moss at the end of 2009 and led this team to offensive power the next year. Wait, he had 10 catches and it was a top 5 defense that led to success?

2011 8-8 Won last 1, so that last loss to GB in the playoffs spelled doom for the Bears this year. Nevermind the injury to Cutler and the two replacements playing like hot garbage. But they won their last game against a shitty Minnesota team - directly following two ass-whoopings from actual good teams - so you know next year will be good.

2012 10-6 Won last 2. That last game in 2011 had them riding high! Gotta be why they did well in 2012, and not the 24 INTs the defense got, or the 26 FFs the defense got. But a 10-6 team that won the last 2? Here comes a monster 2013!

2013 8-8 Lost last 2. What happened? Oh, new coach, drastically new system, QB injury/controversy, dumping of the heart of the defense, a role reversal for Hester, etc.

2014 5-11 Lost last 5. This team got worse. Must have been those 2 losses. Never mind the team completely quitting and the coach losing the locker room.

 

The "winning is a habit" concept just doesn't fly.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I don't want to them them lay down and not try, that is bad. The Bears won single handedly and it should not have been as close if the blocked punt didn't happen. I would rather take a better draft slot but without giving a game. They were short handed as it was playing many practice squad level players.

 

With this draft, I still think they can land a Ragland or Nkimdiche or Decker/Conklin. It is the later rounds were I would like the higher picks.

[Mongo3451]

The "winning is a habit" concept just doesn't fly.

You completely nerded out your keyboard on that reply and didn't say a damn thing that relates to this topic. You win...

 

[jason]

You completely nerded out your keyboard on that reply and didn't say a damn thing that relates to this topic. You win...

 

Don't quit. I listed each season, the final "streak" of the season, and then showed the next season's results. That's directly connected to your theory. Either they learn to win or they don't. Which is it?

 

And if it's not the final streak of the year, then it's pretty hard to defend the idea because of the up-and-down of the records over the years.

[Mongo3451]

Don't quit. I listed each season, the final "streak" of the season, and then showed the next season's results. That's directly connected to your theory. Either they learn to win or they don't. Which is it?

 

And if it's not the final streak of the year, then it's pretty hard to defend the idea because of the up-and-down of the records over the years.

Oh, I don't quit son. Taking your ball and going home is what you've proven to do. You just lost credibility with me when claimed to know more than the man on "the trophy". You can have your build through losing mentality all you want. Just don't sell it to me...