Draft Order Tracker

[adam]

I don't see TEN, CLE, SD, DAL, SF, MIA, BAL, TB, or PHI winning the last week of the season.

 

New Orleans is beating Jacksonville handily, so that puts them as 6-9, and 5-10 respectively. They will both likely lose their last game.

 

If Chicago loses the last game of the season, there is a 6-10 logjam.

 

NO: 6-10

PHI: 6-10

TB: 6-10

CHI: 6-10

 

Do the Bears own the tie-breaker against any of those teams?

No, we lose to all of them, only SF and DAL have a comparable SoS, we would pick last out of those 4. We are now locked out of the top 8 for sure.

 

So right now it looks like this:

 

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) - .478 (@CAR) ~ 6-10

10. New Orleans Saints (6-9) - .513 (@ATL) ~ 6-10

11. Philadelphia Eagles (6-9) - .513 (NYG) ~ 7-9

12. Detroit Lions (6-9) - .531 (@CHI) ~ 7-9

13. Chicago Bears (6-9) - .540 (DET) ~ 6-10 (Proj: 12th)

14. New York Giants (6-8) - .496 (@MIN, PHI) ~ 6-10

-----------------------------------------

15. Indianapolis Colts (7-8) - .504 (TEN) ~ 8-8

16. Oakland Raiders (7-8) - .504 (@KC) ~ 7-9

17. Buffalo Bills (7-8) - .518 (NYJ) ~ 7-9

18. St. Louis Rams (7-8) - .531 (@SF) ~ 8-8

 

A loss and we are locked in at 12 (regardless of who wins between NYG/PHI), this also assumes TB and NO losses. The worst scenario is a win where we would fall to 16th (assuming STL and IND win finales).

 

So now it looks like 12 or 16 depending on win or loss.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Oh, I don't quit son. Taking your ball and going home is what you've proven to do. You just lost credibility with me when claimed to know more than the man on "the trophy". You can have your build through losing mentality all you want. Just don't sell it to me...

I buy Jasons philosophy. But Tampa could not capitalize on a injured Bears roster. You can sit the questionable health guys as the Bears did, but how does a team throw a game? I'll admit, I hoped we would lose. The Bears scouting department probably did too. So know those scouts and Pace have to work harder.

[jason]

Oh, I don't quit son. Taking your ball and going home is what you've proven to do. You just lost credibility with me when claimed to know more than the man on "the trophy". You can have your build through losing mentality all you want. Just don't sell it to me...

 

Yeah, because the 12-team NFL 50 years ago is totally the same as today. There are many more factors involved than back then, namely free agency and expansion. Maybe next you'll tell me about how he scouted via youtube and hudl.

 

Sorry, but drafting higher picks yields better players. It's not about building through losing. It's about avoiding Pyrrhic victories at the end of the season.

[jason]

I buy Jasons philosophy. But Tampa could not capitalize on a injured Bears roster. You can sit the questionable health guys as the Bears did, but how does a team throw a game? I'll admit, I hoped we would lose. The Bears scouting department probably did too. So know those scouts and Pace have to work harder.

 

Keep in mind, I do not condone outright throwing a game. Never have. But you're right. The brass of the franchise almost certainly hoped for a good showing and a loss. Same for next week. They know it benefits the future of the team. And they also know that it doesn't matter financially for this team if the Bears win the last two or lose the last two; fans are still going to sell out the stadium.

[scs787]

Think I've said this before but I'll say it again. I don't think teams in the NFL actively try to lose games.....In the NBA, where one player can change everything, yes, but in the NFL, I just don't think it happens.

 

I'm fine with wherever they land. This draft doesn't really seem to have any "Can't miss" guys to where I'll be bummed if they miss out on someone because they won a game. For instance, ILB looks like it'll be a prime target in the first round, I don't see that big of a dropoff between Smith and Jack who might be gone, to Ragland who would probably be there. DLine looks pretty deep as well, and while there's a drop off between Bosa and the next guy, we probably weren't gonna be in play for Bosa even if we lost the last 2. Same could also be said for OT, personally, I don't think there's that big a drop between Tunsil and Stanley to Conklin and Decker.

[killakrzydav]

I'm not sure why aBears fan wants us to win right now. I'm a back up the tank type of guy and we need to draft as high as we can.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Think I've said this before but I'll say it again. I don't think teams in the NFL actively try to lose games.....In the NBA, where one player can change everything, yes, but in the NFL, I just don't think it happens.

 

I'm fine with wherever they land. This draft doesn't really seem to have any "Can't miss" guys to where I'll be bummed if they miss out on someone because they won a game. For instance, ILB looks like it'll be a prime target in the first round, I don't see that big of a dropoff between Smith and Jack who might be gone, to Ragland who would probably be there. DLine looks pretty deep as well, and while there's a drop off between Bosa and the next guy, we probably weren't gonna be in play for Bosa even if we lost the last 2. Same could also be said for OT, personally, I don't think there's that big a drop between Tunsil and Stanley to Conklin and Decker.

I believe that any player can be coached up with the right support. Right now, this Bear's team has a good standing in coach support. They need a few more playmakers. Where? That is the question since they have put inexperienced players in all position and they have made plays. I feel that this staff can make anyone play well, but they lack on the offensive line. More brut is needed. On defense, a CB DT, LB and S to add competition.

How many games can we say this D of no names has fell apart? Coaching has done well, add one or two draftees and we are looking up

[AZ54]

I believe that any player can be coached up with the right support. Right now, this Bear's team has a good standing in coach support. They need a few more playmakers. Where? That is the question since they have put inexperienced players in all position and they have made plays. I feel that this staff can make anyone play well, but they lack on the offensive line. More brut is needed. On defense, a CB DT, LB and S to add competition. How many games can we say this D of no names has fell apart? Coaching has done well, add one or two draftees and we are looking up

 

I know that you know you can't coach a 4.6 guy into a 4.3 guy. So yes, coaching can take players that have similar physical traits and make one better over the other, if the player has the right mental traits needed to learn from that coaching. After that you must get elite physical talent at a few spots on the field.

 

On the other side of argument Jason and Connor are both right. Losing does give the team a higher probability of finding those elite players. Yet the organization from front office through coaches can only and absolutely preach winning is everything. Once you open that door that losing in this circumstance was ok then each person below you in that organization opens that door a little wider. Eventually that translates to players feeling it was ok to "lose" on this play or possession because i'll win on the next play or series.

 

Fact is New England looked unbeatable until a few players were lost to injury and then the Eagles beat them. The difference from the middle of this league to top is just a few players.

 

 

 

 

 

[adam]

We are now tied for the toughest SoS with 49ers, which means we lose the tie breaker and would pick lowest among teams with the same record.

 

Updated after Monday Night Football:

 

1. Tennessee Titans (3-12) - (@IND) ~ 3-13

2. Cleveland Browns (3-12) - (PIT) ~ 3-13

3. San Diego Chargers (4-11) - (@DEN) ~ 4-12

4. Dallas Cowboys (4-11) - (WAS) ~ 4-12

5. San Francisco 49ers (4-11) - (STL) ~ 4-12

-----------------------------------------

6. Miami Dolphins (5-10) - .453 (NE) ~ 5-11

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) - .467 (@HOU) ~ 5-11

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-10) - .489 (@CIN) ~ 5-11

-----------------------------------------

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) - .453 (@CAR) ~ 6-10

10. New York Giants (6-9) - .496 (PHI) ~ 6-10

11. New Orleans Saints (6-9) - .507 (@ATL) ~ 6-10

12. Philadelphia Eagles (6-9) - .520 (NYG) ~ 7-9

13. Detroit Lions (6-9) - .531 (@CHI) ~ 7-9

14. Chicago Bears (6-9) - .556 (DET) ~ 6-10 (Proj: 12th w/ loss, proj 16th w/ win)

-----------------------------------------

15. Buffalo Bills (7-8) - .498 (NYJ) ~ 7-9

16. Oakland Raiders (7-8) - .502 (@KC) ~ 7-9

17. Indianapolis Colts (7-8) - .516 (TEN) ~ 8-8

18. St. Louis Rams (7-8) - .542 (@SF) ~ 8-8

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I'm not sure why aBears fan wants us to win right now. I'm a back up the tank type of guy and we need to draft as high as we can.

 

Only real problem with your lack of understanding why a "..fan wants to win.." and Jason's philosophy is that its a 'loser's mentality'. Don't want it, don't care for it...and as Mongo's alluded to it's complete BS. The Patriots have proven year after year that you can virtually draft anywhere and still find talent. Detroit, on the other hand, can prove to repeatedly get first round draft picks and figure out a way to consistently lose.

 

If only we could all be in the locker room this coming Sunday. John Fox to the team: "Ok guys. I want to play good today. Doesn't matter how well you do because I'll still be proud of this season and how we did. In fact if you don't win, that's fine too. That will help us get a better draft pick which will make us a better team next year. So either way, you guys are winners!!" Go team go...or not!!!!

[jason]

Only real problem with your lack of understanding why a "..fan wants to win.." and Jason's philosophy is that its a 'loser's mentality'. Don't want it, don't care for it...and as Mongo's alluded to it's complete BS. The Patriots have proven year after year that you can virtually draft anywhere and still find talent. Detroit, on the other hand, can prove to repeatedly get first round draft picks and figure out a way to consistently lose.

 

If only we could all be in the locker room this coming Sunday. John Fox to the team: "Ok guys. I want to play good today. Doesn't matter how well you do because I'll still be proud of this season and how we did. In fact if you don't win, that's fine too. That will help us get a better draft pick which will make us a better team next year. So either way, you guys are winners!!" Go team go...or not!!!!

 

Patriots. LOL. Revisit this a few years post-Brady. Easy to win with one of the best QBs in NFL history.

 

Alternate speech: "Fight to win today! You are all playing for jobs." Fox knows he is coming back next year and will be coaching the same regardless. I am sure he would rather have a higher draft pick so he can pick his guys rather than playing with the previous regime's guys.

 

The winning mentality thing carrying over to the next year thing is just BS in today's NFL. The team personnel changes far too much, the team parity is far too even, the player preparation far too similar, the schedules alternate yearly, and the coaching changes far too much for the carry-over to be that signicant. If it is that significant, prove it.

[killakrzydav]

Comparing the bears to the Pats severely discredits your theory.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Comparing the bears to the Pats severely discredits your theory.

 

Only because its an easy excuse for you to bow out. Which doesn't surprise me frankly.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Patriots. LOL. Revisit this a few years post-Brady. Easy to win with one of the best QBs in NFL history.

 

Alternate speech: "Fight to win today! You are all playing for jobs." Fox knows he is coming back next year and will be coaching the same regardless. I am sure he would rather have a higher draft pick so he can pick his guys rather than playing with the previous regime's guys.

 

The winning mentality thing carrying over to the next year thing is just BS in today's NFL. The team personnel changes far too much, the team parity is far too even, the player preparation far too similar, the schedules alternate yearly, and the coaching changes far too much for the carry-over to be that signicant. If it is that significant, prove it.

 

Jason, its a simple bare bones way of thinking. You're trying too hard to use stats, history and personal feeling to say that in theory our team would be better off losing to gain one or two spots in the draft. Where I'm telling you I don't care what's at stake, you play to win...every week. Playoff contender or no.

 

The point I made with NE is that they have somehow managed to win despite not having the overall pick every year. A simple microcosm of that point would be the year they played without Brady when Cassel looked like the 'second coming'. They still managed to string together a winning season. Another and similar point could be a carryover of our 'discussion' about the importance of having 1st round talent across the board on the O-line. Where Dallas, with almost every player on the line is a 1st rounder is barely a .500 team versus Carolina who has 1 and they are 14-1. Draft position really does not make that much difference. Especially if you are trying to justify winning or losing. Talent is talent.

[jason]

Jason, its a simple bare bones way of thinking. You're trying too hard to use stats, history and personal feeling to say that in theory our team would be better off losing to gain one or two spots in the draft. Where I'm telling you I don't care what's at stake, you play to win...every week. Playoff contender or no.

 

The point I made with NE is that they have somehow managed to win despite not having the overall pick every year. A simple microcosm of that point would be the year they played without Brady when Cassel looked like the 'second coming'. They still managed to string together a winning season. Another and similar point could be a carryover of our 'discussion' about the importance of having 1st round talent across the board on the O-line. Where Dallas, with almost every player on the line is a 1st rounder is barely a .500 team versus Carolina who has 1 and they are 14-1. Draft position really does not make that much difference. Especially if you are trying to justify winning or losing. Talent is talent.

 

 

And you're ignoring two things:

1. Higher picks have better odds of being successful. It's been proven. This is not debatable. And even if it were, pure gambling odds favor a higher pick because more players are available.

2. The Patriots are a horrible comparison. They have succeeded for a ton of reasons, and, sure, they did well the year with Cassell, but it is just a bad comparison. Brady is one of the best QBs ever, and the one year he was out they just happened to have a top-5 WR of all time, one of the best possession WRs of all time, and a top ten defense.

[adam]

You both are correct in a way. The draft position, based on odds does give you a better chance to pick a better player but I would say the difference between players decreases as you pick later (bigger difference between 4 and 9 than 14 and 19). The other thing to consider in this game is next year's schedule, a win and we are 3rd (playing 3rd place teams STL and NO) or a loss and we are last (playing SF and TB). Just something else to consider.

 

On the flip side, we don't want to have a losing mentality regardless of when we play. Teams like Cleveland, Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee, etc who constantly lose almost get accustomed to losing, so there is no real incentive to get better. You should hate to lose more than you like to win. A 7-9 season and 2 win improvement would be great considering our schedule.

 

So as a team, you go into this game like any other, to win. However, it is not a must win, as you can see by how may guys are hitting IR (Goldman just hit it).

[jason]

You both are correct in a way. The draft position, based on odds does give you a better chance to pick a better player but I would say the difference between players decreases as you pick later (bigger difference between 4 and 9 than 14 and 19). The other thing to consider in this game is next year's schedule, a win and we are 3rd (playing 3rd place teams STL and NO) or a loss and we are last (playing SF and TB). Just something else to consider.

 

On the flip side, we don't want to have a losing mentality regardless of when we play. Teams like Cleveland, Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee, etc who constantly lose almost get accustomed to losing, so there is no real incentive to get better. You should hate to lose more than you like to win. A 7-9 season and 2 win improvement would be great considering our schedule.

 

So as a team, you go into this game like any other, to win. However, it is not a must win, as you can see by how may guys are hitting IR (Goldman just hit it).

 

 

This is something specifically studied before. It's been quantitatively analyzed, and posted on this website more than one time. I'm sure the difference is minimized, but there is still a difference.

[AZ54]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this but I noticed this week that the top 2 QBs in the draft have both moved into the top 10: Paxton Lynch and Jared Goff based on Drafttek. http://www.drafttek.com I think Goff will hold that after the strong showing in his bowl game. Although Air Force didn't get any pressure on him and that IMO is his biggest weakness.

 

Dallas added some excitement to the QB prognostications when Jerry Jones said he absolutely has to look at a getting a better backup QB this year. This from an owner who wanted Manziel a couple seasons ago. I don't think after this season's issues with Romo he'll be persuaded to go after any other position in Rd 1. He's drafting early (unexpectedly) and he'll want his next franchise QB in place.

 

Although QBs always rise higher than they should this is a significant change that greatly helps us. Previously only Lynch was consistently showing in the top 10. This makes it much more likely that either a top LB, CB, or even OT prospect falls to us. If we're outside the top 10 I doubt we'll see Stanley fall to us. LT tend to go early too. Generally it is ILB types that aren't as coveted and 1 or 2 of these players could easily fall to us. Ragland isn't even listed in Drafttek's top 20 anymore but I think that changes if he runs well at the combine.

 

A previous late 1st Rd or early 2nd Rd option I liked, Jonathan Bullard, has skyrocketed all the way up to #13! WTF

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this but I noticed this week that the top 2 QBs in the draft have both moved into the top 10: Paxton Lynch and Jared Goff based on Drafttek. http://www.drafttek.com I think Goff will hold that after the strong showing in his bowl game. Although Air Force didn't get any pressure on him and that IMO is his biggest weakness.

 

Dallas added some excitement to the QB prognostications when Jerry Jones said he absolutely has to look at a getting a better backup QB this year. This from an owner who wanted Manziel a couple seasons ago. I don't think after this season's issues with Romo he'll be persuaded to go after any other position in Rd 1. He's drafting early (unexpectedly) and he'll want his next franchise QB in place.

 

Although QBs always rise higher than they should this is a significant change that greatly helps us. Previously only Lynch was consistently showing in the top 10. This makes it much more likely that either a top LB, CB, or even OT prospect falls to us. If we're outside the top 10 I doubt we'll see Stanley fall to us. LT tend to go early too. Generally it is ILB types that aren't as coveted and 1 or 2 of these players could easily fall to us. Ragland isn't even listed in Drafttek's top 20 anymore but I think that changes if he runs well at the combine.

 

A previous late 1st Rd or early 2nd Rd option I liked, Jonathan Bullard, has skyrocketed all the way up to #13! WTF

I think we will be fine where we draft. Stanley, Conklin, or Taylor at T. Smith, Ragland, or Jack at ILB, Buckner or theres a few DTs we can take. CB and S may be an issue, they are upticking Kendall Fuller again with his 2014 play. Any way you look, we should be able to grab a player capable of starting in the league.

 

[jason]

I think we will be fine where we draft. Stanley, Conklin, or Taylor at T. Smith, Ragland, or Jack at ILB, Buckner or theres a few DTs we can take. CB and S may be an issue, they are upticking Kendall Fuller again with his 2014 play. Any way you look, we should be able to grab a player capable of starting in the league.

 

No way in hell the Bears should pick Fuller. Those dice have been rolled, and they are not worthy of a first round pick.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

No way in hell the Bears should pick Fuller. Those dice have been rolled, and they are not worthy of a first round pick.

Not saying I would want him, but if they want to go CB in the first his name may be up there unfortunately. Just reading different sites latest mocks, they are sneaking him back into the first again. They re-sign Porter, then CB round 1 is not as big of a need.

[adam]

No way in hell the Bears should pick Fuller. Those dice have been rolled, and they are not worthy of a first round pick.

First Round, no way in hell. I would say the earliest I would consider Fuller would be if he is still around in the 3rd.

[adam]

Bears picking 11th.

 

9. New York Giants (6-10) - .496

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

11. Chicago Bears (6-10) - .556

[jason]

Cleveland is done with Manziel for good. Their front office has essentially said they are picking a QB with their first rounder. Not a huge shocker, but it is one less variable to be considered when thinking about who falls to the Bears.

[AZ54]

Cleveland is done with Manziel for good. Their front office has essentially said they are picking a QB with their first rounder. Not a huge shocker, but it is one less variable to be considered when thinking about who falls to the Bears.

 

That's Cleveland and likely Dallas drafting a QB. Toss in the 49ers too. Jerry Jones may have his faults but he knows to win you must have a top QB. He's drafting 4th and won't likely get back that high soon. Consider the long term success of franchises like Green Bay (Favre to Rodgers) and Indy (Manning to Luck) and it's about that continuity at the QB spot. Goff and Lynch are not in the same category as Luck but they'll go early anyway and I think one of them ends up a Cowboy.