Weeks 12 and 13 games of interest

[adam]

Right now we have MIN and GB ahead of us in the division and ATL, SEA and TB ahead of us in the Wild Card. Based on schedules going forward, it seems like ATL and MIN have the hardest paths.

 

Week 12:

ATL 6-4 vs MIN 7-3

TB 5-5 at IND

SEA 5-5 vs PIT

 

Week 13:

GB 7-4 at DET

MIN 7-3 vs SEA 5-5

ATL 6-4 at TB 5-5

 

Most realistic:

MIN beats ATL, then loses to SEA, moving to 8-4

GB beats DET, moving to 8-4

ATL loses to MIN, then beats TB, moving to 7-5

SEA loses to PIT, then beats MIN, moving to 6-6

TB loses to both IND and ATL, and drops to 5-7

 

1. MIN gets ATL, SEA, ARZ, CHI, NYG, and GB. Of all the teams, they have the toughest path to the playoffs with us having the worst record at 5-6. They could lose all 6, but more than likely will win at least 2, which would put them at 9-7. If they went 1-5, we could sneak in at 9-7. For us the best scenario would be for them to beat ATL, then lose 5 straight.

 

2. GB has a fairly easier schedule, with DET, DAL, OAK, ARZ, and MIN left. At 7-4, they would have to lose 3 for them to get to 9-7. It ultimately depends on what team shows up, but it seems like they will win at least 2 and finish no worse than 9-7. DET and OAK beating them would be huge for us.

 

3. SEA has PIT, MIN, BAL, CLE, STL, and ARZ left. At 5-5, they are 2 losses from 9-7 and potentially 6-6 in the conference as well. They own the head to head against us, so we would have to beat them by record. With 6 games left, I would love to see them go 3-3.

 

4. ATL seems destined for 9-7 or 8-8 and probably 6-6 in the conference. We could potentially be tied with them at 9-7 and 6-6 in conference if we went 4-1 down the stretch. We should win the common games tie breaker if we could beat TB and WAS. So if tied, I think we would have the tie breaker against them.

 

5. TB seems locked in for 8-8 or 7-9 with games left against IND, ATL, NO, STL, CHI, CAR. We need to beat them to get the head to head tie breaker and common game tie breaker from ATL.

 

So to me it looks like 9-7 won't cut it, but it does look like 10-6 would be enough to get in as one of the Wild Cards. There is a very small chance at the Division at 10-6, but it would require us to win out (possible), MIN to go no better than 2-4 (very possible) and for GB to go 2-3 (unlikely but possible).