CrackerDog Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Sorry dude, no matter how much sense it makes I can't root for them to lose to the ferkin Lions. GO BEARS!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Sorry dude, no matter how much sense it makes I can't root for them to lose to the ferkin Lions. GO BEARS!!! You know it ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I, too, cheered for the win. But I wasn't nearly as pissed as normal about the loss. Silver linings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 As a Bears fan, of course I want them to win. However, a loss today moved them up five places in the first round which is terrific for us. When you don't make the playoffs, does it matter if you are 1-15 or 9-7? You still didn't make the playoffs. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 As a Bears fan, of course I want them to win. However, a loss today moved them up five places in the first round which is terrific for us. When you don't make the playoffs, does it matter if you are 1-15 or 9-7? You still didn't make the playoffs. Peace And really does moving up 5 spots in the draft make that big a deal? No. Can't convince me otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 And really does moving up 5 spots in the draft make that big a deal? No. Can't convince me otherwise. Sorry, but, once again, you are wrong. There have been numerous posts linking to statistical analysis proving this concept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Sorry, but, once again, you are wrong. There have been numerous posts linking to statistical analysis proving this concept. Nope. Absolutely not. Statistics cannot and will not justify losing 'on purpose'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nope. Absolutely not. Statistics cannot and will not justify losing 'on purpose'. They absolutely didn't lose on purpose. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 And really does moving up 5 spots in the draft make that big a deal? No. Can't convince me otherwise. You think it isn't better to draft 11 than 16? How about 40th to 48th in the second round? Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 #11 is one of the sweet spots in the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Nope. Absolutely not. Statistics cannot and will not justify losing 'on purpose'. Don't move the goal posts. You said the five positions didn't matter. I'm saying they do matter, and stats prove it. Nobody said a thing about losing on purpose...well, nobody except you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Data on Pro Bowls vs. draft position, years as a starter vs. draft position. Data is 6 years old but I see no reason for it to have changed in the last 5 years. http://thedctimes.com/tag/nfl-draft-pick-pro-bowls/ http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.c...inebackers.html http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.c...raft-order.html If you find the chart showing Pro Bowls vs. draft slot then it is clear that top 10 picks have nearly double the amount of Pro Bowl selections for a top 10 picks and Pro Bowl selections tails off rather quickly from 10th to the 15th pick in the 1st Rd. More or less once you reach the 15th pick your odds of finding a multi-year Pro Bowl player are the same for picks 15-32. So if you want much higher chance of finding a multi-year Pro Bowler you need to be drafting top 10. For the Bears, sitting at #11 we are about twice as likely to find that player vs. drafting at #16. I'll take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 "It goes to 11. It's one louder than 10, innit?" It's a good spot to be in! Data on Pro Bowls vs. draft position, years as a starter vs. draft position. Data is 6 years old but I see no reason for it to have changed in the last 5 years. http://thedctimes.com/tag/nfl-draft-pick-pro-bowls/ http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.c...inebackers.html http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.c...raft-order.html If you find the chart showing Pro Bowls vs. draft slot then it is clear that top 10 picks have nearly double the amount of Pro Bowl selections for a top 10 picks and Pro Bowl selections tails off rather quickly from 10th to the 15th pick in the 1st Rd. More or less once you reach the 15th pick your odds of finding a multi-year Pro Bowl player are the same for picks 15-32. So if you want much higher chance of finding a multi-year Pro Bowler you need to be drafting top 10. For the Bears, sitting at #11 we are about twice as likely to find that player vs. drafting at #16. I'll take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Sorry, but, once again, you are wrong. There have been numerous posts linking to statistical analysis proving this concept. 4 January 2016 below is some data i collected quite a few years ago and reposted them in time for the 2012 draft. i don't have the time or inclination to go back over the data to update it to present so take it for what it's worth or if you or anyone else feels energetic bring it up to date. LL =================== below are some statistics i compiled for the old board about 8 years ago and i have updated the information to date, pre-draft 2012. it lists all players drafted in slots 1-20 in the first round and how they compare to obtaining a quality player drafting in these slots. feel free if you wish to copy this information for your own records but please acknowledge where you got them from as it was an incredible amount of work putting this together. thanks, Lucky Luciano my conclusions after looking at the statistics below i know i am not so sure i wouldn't consider trading up EVERY year into the top 10 if you want the odds on your side with selecting a quality player. below are some interesting facts: 1) over a 29 year period there were 580 picks in slots 1-20 2) 134 were quality picks in slots 1-10 or 23% of the players picked 3) 77 were quality picks in slots 11-20 or 13% of the players picked 4) that makes it a 10% better chance to land a better player in slots 1-10 than 11-20 in the first round. the data below reads as follows: YEAR - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 1-10 - NUMBER OF PLAYERS FROM PICKS 11-20 1979 - 6 - 1 1980 - 5 - 3 1981 - 7 - 2 1982 - 5 - 2 1983 - 8 - 2 1984 - 3 - 3 * 1985 - 7 - 2 1986 - 4 - 1 1987 - 5 - 1 1988 - 6 - 7 ** 1989 - 4 - 1 1990 - 4 - 3 1991 - 3 - 0 1992 - 3 - 3 * 1993 - 5 - 1 1994 - 5 - 4 1995 - 4 - 5 ** 1996 - 5 - 2 1997 - 5 - 3 1998 - 2 - 3 ** 1999 - 7 - 2 2000 - 4 - 6 ** 2001 - 5 - 3 2002 - 3 - 3 * 2003 - 7 - 2 2004 - 5 - 4 2005 - 1 - 4 ** 2006 - 3 - 2 2007 - 3 - 2 TOTAL 134 - 77 21 out of 29 times there were MORE quality players selected 1-10 than in slots 11-20. *3 times they were even **only 5 times in 29 years were there more pro bowl/all-pro players picked in slots 11-20. i used data for 29 years from 1979 to 2007 inclusive. i did not go further than 2007 as the time frame would be not be long enough to determine any significant figures. over time some of these figures will change and have to be adjusted. i also am using figures from picks 1-20 in the first round only to determine the value of drafting in the top 10 as compared to picking in the next 10 slots. although i haven't tallied up the differences in slots 21-32 i believe the numbers would be considerably lower. anyone who feels like doing the work is welcome to dispute that statement. i went through an incredible amount of data to get these stats. all data was figured from players who had at LEAST two forms of award. EXAMPLE.. a player that had 1 pro bowl and 1 all-pro made the list, a player that was selected for 2 pro-bowls made the list, a player who was selected as all-pro (or all-nfl) twice made the list, and multiples of the above. im no math expert by any means and if anyone see's any errors post them and/or i will post the players along with data. any who want can do the math on their own as it is possible i missed someone or added one by mistake. if you find any that dont jive let me know. =========== listed below are the players that i used for the stats above from 1979 - 2007. how long did this take to compile this data you ask? days! ap = ALL-PRO pb = PRO BOWL >> 1979 - 6 - 1 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Tom Cousineau Bills LB Ohio State - 2 ap >> 2 Mike Bell Chiefs DE Colorado State 3 Jack Thompson Bengals QB Washington State >> 4 Dan Hampton Bears DT Arkansas - 4 pb - 1 ap >> 5 Jerry Butler Bills WR Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Barry Krauss Colts LB Alabama >> 7 Phil Simms Giants QB Morehead State - 2 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Ottis Anderson Cardinals RB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 2 ap 9 Al Harris Bears DE Arizona State >> 10 Keith Dorney Lions T Penn State - 1 pb - 2 ap -------------------------------------------------- 11 Russell Erxleben Saints K Texas 12 Charles Alexander Bengals RB LSU >> 13 Kellen Winslow Chargers TE Missouri - 5 pb - 3 ap 14 Marty Lyons Jets DE Alabama 15 Eddie Lee Ivery Packers RB Georgia Tech 16 Ted Brown Vikings RB North Carolina State 17 Don Smith Falcons DE Miami (FL) - 1 ap 18 Manu Tuiasosopo Seahawks DT UCLA 19 George Andrews Rams LB Nebraska 20 Willis Adams Browns WR Houston ======================================= 1980 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Billy Sims Lions RB Oklahoma - 2 pb - 2 ap 2 Lam Jones Jets WR Texas >> 3 Anthony Munoz Bengals T USC - 10 pb - 11 ap 4 Bruce Clark Packers DT Penn State - 1 pb 5 Curtis Dickey Colts RB Texas A&M 6 Curtis Greer Cardinals DE Michigan - 1 ap >> 7 Junior Miller Falcons TE Nebraska - 2 pb >> 8 Mark Haynes Giants DB Colorado - 3pb - 5 ap 9 Doug Martin Vikings DT Washington >> 10 Jacob Green Seahawks DE Texas A&M- 2ap - 4 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Brad Budde Chiefs G USC 12 Stan Brock Saints T Colorado 13 Earl Cooper 49ers RB Rice 14 Roland James Patriots DB Tennessee - 1 ap 15 Marc Wilson Raiders QB Brigham Young >> 16 Jim Ritcher Bills C North Carolina State - 2 pb - 2 ap 17 Johnnie Johnson Rams DB Texas - 1 ap >> 18 Art Monk Redskins WR Syracuse - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 19 Otis Wilson Bears LB Louisville - 1 pb - 2 ap 20 Jim Stuckey 49ers DT Clemson ===================================================== 1981 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 George Rogers Saints RB South Carolina - 2 pb - 2 ap >> 2 Lawrence Taylor Giants LB North Carolina - 10 pb - 8 ap >> 3 Freeman McNeil Jets RB UCLA - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 4 Kenny Easley Seahawks DB UCLA - 5 pb - 5 ap >> 5 E.J. Junior Cardinals LB Alabama - 2 pb - 2 ap 6 Rich Campbell Packers QB California >> 7 Hugh Green Buccaneers LB Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap >> 8 Ronnie Lott 49ers DB USC - 10 pb - 6 ap 9 Mel Owens Rams LB Michigan 10 David Verser Bengals WR Kansas ----------------------------------------------------- 11 Keith Van Horne Bears T USC 12 Randy McMillan Colts RB Pittsburgh 13 David Overstreet Dolphins RB Oklahoma 14 Willie Scott Chiefs TE South Carolina >> 15 Dennis Smith Broncos DB USC - 6 pb 16 Mark Nichols Lions WR San Jose State 17 Keith Gary Steelers DE Oklahoma 18 Donnell Thompson Colts DT North Carolina >> 19 Brian Holloway Patriots T Stanford - 3 pb - 3 ap 20 Mark May Redskins T Pittsburgh - 1 ap ============================================ 1982 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 2 1 Kenneth Sims Patriots DT Texas 2 Johnie Cooks Colts LB Mississippi State >> 3 Chip Banks Browns LB USC - 4 pb - 4 ap 4 Art Schlichter Colts QB Ohio State >> 5 Jim McMahon Bears QB Brigham Young - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Jeff Bryant Seahawks DE Clemson - 1 ap 7 Darrin Nelson Vikings RB Stanford >> 8 Mike Munchak Oilers G Penn State - 9 pb - 2 ap >> 9 Gerald Riggs Falcons RB Arizona State - 3 pb - 2 ap >> 10 Marcus Allen Raiders RB USC - 5 pb - 2 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Anthony Hancock Chiefs WR Tennessee 12 Walter Abercrombie Steelers RB Baylor 13 Lindsay Scott Saints WR Georgia 14 Barry Redden Rams RB Richmond 15 Jimmy Williams Lions LB Nebraska >> 16 Luis Sharpe Cardinals T UCLA - 3 pb - 4 ap 17 Sean Farrell Buccaneers G Penn State - 1 ap 18 Butch Woolfork Giants RB Michigan 19 Perry Tuttle Bills WR Clemson >> 20 Mike Quick Eagles WR North Carolina State - 5 pb - 4 ap ==================================== 1983 - 8 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 John Elway Colts QB Stanford - 9 pb >> 2 Eric Dickerson Rams RB SMU - 5 pb - 4 ap >> 3 Curt Warner Seahawks RB Penn State - 3 pb - 4 ap >> 4 Chris Hinton Broncos T Northwestern - 7 pb - 1 ap >> 5 Billy Ray Smith Chargers LB Arkansas - 3 ap >> 6 Jimbo Covert Bears T Pittsburgh - 2 pb - 2 ap 7 Todd Blackledge Chiefs QB Penn State 8 Michael Haddix Eagles RB Mississippi State >> 9 Bruce Matthews Oilers G USC - 14 pb - 7 ap >> 10 Terry Kinard Giants DB Clemson - 1 pb - 1 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Tim Lewis Packers DB Pittsburgh - 1 ap 12 Tony Hunter Bills TE Notre Dame 13 James Jones Lions RB Florida - >> 14 Jim Kelly Bills QB Miami (FL) 5 pb - 1 ap 15 Tony Eason Patriots QB Illinois 16 Mike Pitts Falcons DE Alabama 17 Leonard Smith Cardinals DB McNeese State 1 ap 18 Willie Gualt Bears WR Tennessee >> 19 Joey Browner Vikings DB USC - 6 pb - 5 ap 20 Gary Anderson Chargers RB Arkansas - 1 pb ================================ 1984 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Irving Fryar Patriots WR Nebraska - 5 pb - 1 ap 2 Dean Steinkuhler Oilers T Nebraska >> 3 Carl Banks Giants LB Michigan State - 1 pb - 1 ap 4 Kenny Jackson Eagles WR Penn State >> 5 Bill Maas Chiefs DT Pittsburgh - 2 ap 6 Mossy Cade Chargers DB Texas 7 Ricky Hunley Bengals LB Arizona 8 Leonard Coleman Colts DB Vanderbilt 9 Rick Bryan Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap 10 Russell Carter Jets DB SMU -------------------------------------- >> 11 Wilber Marshall Bears LB Florida - 3 pb - 2 ap 12 Alphonso Carreker Packers DE Florida State >> 13 Keith Millard Vikings DE Washington State - 2 pb - 4 ap 14 Jackie Shipp Dolphins LB Oklahoma 15 Ron Faurot Jets DE Arkansas 16 Pete Koch Bengals DE Maryland 17 Clyde Duncan Cardinals WR Tennessee 18 Don Rogers Browns DB UCLA >> 19 Ron Solt Colts G Maryland - 1 pb - 1 ap 20 David Lewis Lions TE California ========================================== 1985 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 5 >> 1 Bruce Smith Bills DE Virginia Tech 11 pb - 8 ap >> 2 Bill Fralic Falcons T Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap >> 3 Ray Childress Oilers DE Texas A&M - 5 pb - 6 ap >> 4 Chris Doleman Vikings DE Pittsburgh - 8 pb - 4 ap >> 5 Duane Bickett Colts LB USC - 1 pb - 2 ap >> 6 Lomas Brown Lions T Florida - 7 pb - 6 ap 7 Ken Ruettgers Packers T USC 8 Ron Holmes Buccaneers DE Washington 9 Kevin Allen Eagles T Indiana >> 10 Al Toon Jets WR Wisconsin - 3 pb - 3 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Richard Johnson Oilers DB Wisconsin >> 12 Jim Lachey Chargers T Ohio State - 3 pb - 5 ap 13 Eddie Brown Bengals WR Miami (FL) - 1 ap 14 Derrick Burroughs Bills DB Memphis State 15 Ethan Horton Chiefs RB North Carolina >> 16 Jerry Rice 49ers WR Mississippi Valley State - 13 pb - 10 ap 17 Kevin Brooks Cowboys DE Michigan 18 Freddie Joe Nunn Cardinals DE Mississippi 19 George Adams Giants RB Kentucky 20 Darryl Sims Steelers DE Wisconsin ======================================= 1986 - 4 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Bo Jackson Buccaneers RB Auburn - 1 pb - 2 ap 2 Tony Casillas Falcons DT Oklahoma - 1 ap >> 3 Jim Everett Oilers QB Purdue - 1 pb - 2 ap 4 Jon Hand Colts DE Alabama 5 Anthony Bell Cardinals LB Michigan State 6 Jim Dombrowski Saints T Virginia 7 Brian Jozwiak Chiefs T West Virginia >> 8 Leslie O'Neal Chargers DE Oklahoma State - 6 pb 9 John Rienstra Steelers G Temple >> 10 Keith Byars Eagles RB Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap ------------------------------------ 11 Joe Kelly Bengals LB Washington 12 Chuck Long Lions QB Iowa 13 James Fitzpatrick Chargers T USC 14 Gerald Robinson Vikings DE Auburn 15 John L. Williams Seahawks RB Florida 16 Ronnie Harmon Bills RB Iowa - 1 pb 17 Tim Green Falcons LB Syracuse 18 Mike Sherrard Cowboys WR UCLA 19 Eric Dorsey Giants DE Notre Dame >> 20 Will Wolford Bills T Vanderbilt - 3 pb - 2 ap ================================= 1987 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers QB Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 1 ap >> 2 Cornelius Bennett Colts LB Alabama - 5 pb - 1 ap 3 Alonzo Highsmith Oilers RB Miami (FL) 4 Brent Fullwood Packers RB Auburn - 1 pb 5 Mike Junkin Browns LB Duke 6 Kelly Stouffer Cardinals QB Colorado State 7 Reggie Rogers Lions DE Washington >> 8 Shane Conlan Bills LB Penn State - 3 pb - 3 ap >> 9 Jerome Brown Eagles DT Miami (FL) - 2 pb - 3 ap >> 10 Rod Woodson Steelers DB Purdue 11 pb - 6 ap ------------------------------------------------------ 11 Shawn Knight Saints DT Brigham Young 12 Danny Noonan Cowboys DT Nebraska 13 Chris Miller Falcons QB Oregon - 1 pb 14 D.J. Dozier Vikings RB Penn State 15 John Clay Raiders T Missouri 16 John Bosa Dolphins DE Boston College 17 Jason Buck Bengals DE Brigham Young 18 Tony Woods Seahawks LB Pittsburgh 19 Paul Palmer Chiefs RB Temple >> 20 Haywood Jeffires Oilers WR North Carolina State - 3 pb - 2 ap ========================================= 1988 - 6 - 7 - top 5 = 3 1 Aundray Bruce Falcons LB Auburn - >> 2 Neil Smith Chiefs DE Nebraska - 6 pb - 6 ap >> 3 Bennie Blades Lions DB Miami (FL) - 1 pb - 3 ap >> 4 Paul Gruber Buccaneers T Wisconsin - 3 ap 5 Rickey Dixon Bengals DB Oklahoma >> 6 Tim Brown Raiders WR Notre Dame - 7 + - ap + >> 7 Sterling Sharpe Packers WR South Carolina - 5 pb - 5 ap 8 Dave Cadigan Jets T USC - >> 9 Terry McDaniel Raiders DB Tennessee - 5 pb - 2 ap 10 Eric Moore Giants T Indiana ------------------------------------- >> 11 Michael Irvin Cowboys WR Miami (FL) - + pb - + ap >> 12 Ken Harvey Cardinals LB California - + pb - + ap >> 13 Keith Jackson Eagles TE Oklahoma - 5 pb - 4 ap >> 14 Gaston Green Rams RB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 15 Anthony Miller Chargers WR Tennessee - 5 pb - 3 ap 16 Eric Kumerow Dolphins DE Ohio State >> 17 John Stephens Patriots RB NW Louisiana - 1 pb - 1 ap 18 Aaron Jones Steelers DE Eastern Kentucky - >> 19 Randall McDaniel Vikings G Arizona State - 12 pb - 7 ap 20 Aaron Cox Rams WR Arizona State ================================================= 1989 - 4 -1 - top 5 = 4 >> 1 Troy Aikman Cowboys QB UCLA - 6 pb 2 Tony Mandarich Packers T Michigan State >> 3 Barry Sanders Lions RB Oklahoma State - 10 pb - 5 ap >> 4 Derrick Thomas Chiefs LB Alabama - 9 pb - 2 ap >> 5 Deion Snaders Falcons DB Florida State 8 pb - 6 ap 6 Broderick Thomas Buccaneers LB Nebraska 7 Tim Worley Steelers RB Georgia 8 Burt Grossman Chargers DE Pittsburgh 9 Sammie Smith Dolphins RB Florida State 10 Eric Hill Cardinals LB LSU --------------------------------------------- 11 Donnell Woolford Bears DB Clemson - 1 pb 12 Trace Armstrong Bears DE Florida 1 pb 13 Eric Metcalf Browns RB Texas 14 Jeff Lageman Jets LB Virginia - 1 ap 15 Andy Heck Seahawks T Notre Dame - 1 ap 16 Hart Lee Dykes Patriots WR Oklahoma State 17 Joe Wolf Cardinals G Boston College 18 Brian Williams Giants C Minnesota 19 Wayne Martin Saints DE Arkansas - 1 pb >> 20 Steve Atwater Broncos DB Arkansas - 8 pb - + ap ========================================= 1990 - 4 - 3 - top 5 = 2 1 Jeff George Colts QB Illinois 2 Blair Thomas Jets RB Penn State >> 3 Cortez Kennedy Seahawks DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 6 ap 4 Keith McCants Buccaneers LB Alabama >> 5 Junior Seau Chargers LB USC - 12 pb - 6 ap >> 6 Mark Carrier Bears DB USC - 3 pb - 3 ap 7 Andre Ware Lions QB Houston 8 Chris Singleton Patriots LB Arizona >> 9 Richmond Webb Dolphins T Texas A&M - 7 pb - 3 ap 10 Ray Agnew Patriots DE North Carolina State - -------------------------------------------- 11 Anthony Smith Raiders DE Arizona 12 James Francis Bengals LB Baylor 13 Percy Snow Chiefs LB Michigan State >> 14 Renaldo Turnbull Saints DE West Virginia - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 15 Lamar Lathon Oilers LB Houston - 1 pb - 1 ap 16 James Williams Bills DB Fresno State >> 17 Emmitt Smith Cowboys RB Florida 8 pb - 4 ap 18 Tony Bennett Packers LB Mississippi 19 Darrell Thompson Packers RB Minnesota 20 Steve Broussard Falcons RB Washington State ============================================== 1991 - 3 - 0 - top 5 = 1 1 Russell Maryland Cowboys DT Miami (FL) - 1 pb >> 2 Eric Turner Browns DB UCLA - 2 pb - 1 ap 3 Bruce Pickens Falcons DB Nebraska 4 Mike Croel Broncos LB Nebraska 5 Todd Lyght Rams DB Notre Dame - 1 pb >> 6 Eric Swann Cardinals DE None - 2 pb - 2 ap 7 Charles McRae Buccaneers T Tennessee 8 Antone Davis Eagles T Tennessee 9 Stanley Richard Chargers DB Texas >> 10 Herman Moore Lions WR Virginia - 4 pb - 3 ap --------------------------------------- 11 Pat Harlow Patriots T USC 12 Alvin Harper Cowboys WR Tennessee 13 Mike Pritchard Falcons WR Colorado 14 Leonard Russell Patriots RB Arizona State 15 Huey Richardson Steelers LB Florida 16 Dan McGwire Seahawks QB San Diego State 17 Bobby Wilson Redskins DT Michigan State 18 Alfred Williams Bengals LB Colorado 19 Vinnie Clark Packers DB Ohio State 20 Kelvin Pritchett Cowboys DT Mississippi ================================================ 1992 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1 1 Steve Emtman Colts DT Washington 2 Quentin Coryatt Colts LB Texas A&M >> 3 Sean Gilbert Rams DT Pittsburgh - 1 pb - 1 ap 4 Desmond Howard Redskins WR Michigan 5 Terrell Buckley Packers DB Florida State - 1 ap 6 David Klingler Bengals QB Houston >> 7 Troy Vincent Dolphins DB Wisconsin - 5 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Bob Whitfield Falcons T Stanford - 1 pb - 1 ap 9 Tommy Vardell Browns RB Stanford 10 Ray Roberts Seahawks T Virginia ------------------------------------------ 11 Leon Searcy Steelers T Miami (FL) - 1 pb >> 12 Marco Coleman Dolphins DE Georgia Tech - 2 pb 13 Eugene Chung Patriots T Virginia Tech 14 Derek Brown Giants TE Notre Dame 15 Johnny Mitchell Jets TE Nebraska >> 16 Chester McGlockton Raiders DT Clemson - 4 pb - + ap 17 Kevin Smith Cowboys DB Texas A&M - 1 ap 18 Dana Hall 49ers DB Washington - 19 Troy Smith Falcons RB Southern Mississippi >> 20 Dale Carter Chiefs DB Tennessee - 4 pb - 4 ap ========================================== 1993 - 5 - 1 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Drew Bledsoe Patriots QB Washington State - 4 pb 2 Rick Mirer Seahawks QB Notre Dame >> 3 Garrison Hearst Cardinals RB Georgia 2 pb 4 Marvin Jones Jets LB Florida State 5 John Copeland Bengals DE Alabama 6 Eric Curry Buccaneers DE Alabama 7 Curtis Conway Bears WR USC >> 8 William Roaf Saints T Louisiana Tech - 11 pb - 3 ap >>9 Lincoln Kennedy Falcons T Washington - 3 pb - 1 ap >> 10 Jerome Bettis Rams RB Notre Dame - 6 pb - 2 ap ------------------------------------- 11 Dan Williams Broncos DE Toledo 12 Patrick Bates Raiders DB Texas A&M >>13 Brad Hopkins Oilers T Illinois - 2 pb 14 Steve Everitt Browns C Michigan 15 Wayne Simmons Packers LB Clemson 16 Sean Dawkins Colts WR California 17 Tom Carter Redskins DB Notre Dame 18 Ernest Dye Cardinals T South Carolina 19 Lester Holmes Eagles G Jackson State 20 Irv Smith Saints TE Notre Dame ==================================== 1994 - 5 - 4 - top 5 = 2 1 Dan Wilkinson Bengals DT Ohio State >> 2 Marshall Faulk Colts RB San Diego State 7 pb - 3 ap 3 Heath Shuler Redskins QB Tennessee >>4 Willie McGinest Patriots DE USC - 2 pb 5 Trev Alberts Colts LB Nebraska 6 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers QB Fresno State - 1 pb >> 7 Bryant Young 49ers DT Notre Dame - 4 pb - 1 ap >> 8 Sam Adams Seahawks DT Texas A&M - 3 pb 9 Antonio Langham Browns DB Alabama >> 10 Jamir Miller Cardinals LB UCLA - 1 pb - 1 ap --------------------------------- 11 John Thierry Bears DE Alcorn State >> 12 Aaron Glenn Jets DB Texas A&M - 3 pb >> 13 Joe Johnson Saints DE Louisville 2 pb 14 Bernard Williams Eagles T Georgia 15 Wayne Gandy Rams T Auburn 16 Aaron Taylor Packers T Notre Dame 17 Charles Johnson Steelers WR Colorado 18 DeWayne Washington Vikings DB North Carolina State >> 19 Todd Steussie Vikings T California - 2 pb >> 20 Tim Bowens Dolphins DT Mississippi 2 pb ========================================= 1995 - 4 - 5 - top 5 = 3 1 Ki-Jana Carter Bengals RB Penn State >> 2 Tony Boselli Jaguars T USC - 5 pb - 3 ap >>3 Steve McNair Oilers QB Alcorn State - 3 pb 4 Michael Westbrook Redskins WR Colorado >>5 Kerry Collins Panthers QB Penn State - 2 pb >> 6 Kevin Carter Rams DE Florida - 2 pb - 1ap 7 Mike Mamula Eagles DE Boston College 8 Joey Galloway Seahawks WR Ohio State 9 Kyle Brady Jets TE Penn State 10 J.J. Stokes 49ers WR UCLA -------------------------------------------- 11 Derrick Alexander Vikings DE Florida State >> 12 Warren Sapp Buccaneers DT Miami (FL) - 7 pb - 4 ap >>13 Mark Fields Saints LB Washington State - 2 pb >> 14 Reuben Brown Bills G Pittsburgh - 9 pb 15 Ellis Johnson Colts DT Florida >> 16 Hugh Douglas Jets DE Central State (OH) - 3 pb - 1 ap 17 Tyrone Wheatley Giants RB Michigan 18 Napoleon Kaufman Raiders RB Washington 19 James Stewart Jaguars RB Tennessee >> 20 Luther Elliss Lions DE Utah - 2 pb ========================================== 1996 - 5 - 2 - top 5 = 4 >> 1 Keyshawn Johnson Jets WR USC - 3 pb >> 2 Kevin Hardy Jaguars LB Illinois - 1 pb - 1 ap >> 3 Simeon Rice Cardinals DE Illinois - 3 pb 1 ap >> 4 Jonathan Ogden Ravens T UCLA - 11 pb - 4 ap 5 Cedric Jones Giants DE Oklahoma 6 Lawrence Phillips Rams RB Nebraska 7 Terry Glenn Patriots WR Ohio State - 1 pb 8 Tim Biakabutuka Panthers RB Michigan 9 Rickey Dudley Raiders TE Ohio State >>10 Willie Anderson Bengals T Auburn - 4 pb - 3 ap ----------------------------------------- 11 Alex Molden Saints DB Oregon 12 Regan Upshaw Buccaneers DE California 13 Walt Harris Bears DB Mississippi State >> 14 Eddie George Oilers RB Ohio State - 4 pb - 1 ap 15 John Mobley Broncos LB Kutztown (PA) - 1 ap 16 Duane Clemons Vikings DE California 17 Reggie Brown Lions LB Texas A&M 18 Eddie Kennison Rams WR LSU >> 19 Marvin Harrison Colts WR Syracuse - 8 pb - 3 ap 20 Daryl Gardener Dolphins DT Baylor ============================================== 1997 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 3 >> 1 Orlando Pace Rams T Ohio State - 7 pb - 3 ap >> 2 Darrell Russell Raiders DT USC - 2 pb - 1 ap 3 Shawn Springs Seahawks DB Ohio State - 1 pb >> 4 Peter Boulware Ravens DE Florida State - 4 pb 5 Bryant Westbrook Lions DB Texas >> 6 Walter Jones Seahawks T Florida State - 8 pb - 4 ap 7 Ike Hilliard Giants WR Florida >>8 James Farrior Jets LB Virginia - 2 pb - 1 ap 9 TOM Knight Cards CB Iowa 10 Chris Naeole Saints G Colorado ------------------------------------------ 11 Michael Booker Falcons DB Nebraska >> 12 Warrick Dunn Buccaneers RB Florida State - 3 pb >> 13 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs TE California - 12 pb 5 ap 14 Reinard Wilson Bengals DE Florida State 15 Yatil Green Dolphins WR Miami (FL) 16 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers WR Florida 17 Kenard Lang Redskins DE Miami (FL) 18 Kenny Holmes Oilers DE Miami (FL) >>19 Tarik Glenn Colts T California - 3 pb 20 Dwayne Rudd Vikings LB Alabama ==================================== 1998 - 2 - 3 - top 5 = 2 >> 1 Peyton Manning Colts QB Tennessee - 11 pb - 5 ap 2 Ryan Leaf Chargers QB Washington State 3 Andre Wadsworth Cardinals DE Florida State >> 4 Charles Woodson Raiders DB Michigan - 8 pb - 3 ap 5 Curtis Enis Bears RB Penn State 6 Grant Wistrom Rams DE Nebraska 7 Kyle Turley Saints T San Diego State - 1 ap 8 Greg Ellis Cowboys DE North Carolina 9 Fred Taylor Jaguars RB Florida 10 Duane Starks Ravens DB Miami (FL) -------------------------------------- >> 11 Tra Thomas Eagles T Florida State - 3 pb >> 12 Keith Brooking Falcons LB Georgia Tech - 5 pb >>13 Takeo Spikes Bengals LB Auburn - 2 pb - 1 ap 14 Jason Peter Panthers DT Nebraska 15 Anthony Simmons Seahawks LB Clemson 16 Kevin Dyson Oilers WR Utah 17 Brian Simmons Bengals LB North Carolina 18 Robert Edwards Patriots RB Georgia 19 Vonnie Holliday Packers DT North Carolina 20 Terry Fair Lions DB Tennessee ====================================== 1999 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 3 1 Tim Couch Browns QB Kentucky >>2 Donovan McNabb Eagles QB Syracuse 6 pb 3 Akili Smith Bengals QB Oregon >>4 Edgerrin James Colts RB Miami (FL) - 4 pr - 1 ap >>5 Ricky Williams Saints RB Texas - 1 pb - 1 ap >>6 Torry Holt Rams WR North Carolina State - 7 pb - 1 ap >>7 Champ Bailey Redskins DB Georgia - 11 pb - 3 ap >>8 David Boston Cardinals WR Ohio State - 1 pb - 1 ap 9 Chris Claiborne Lions LB USC >>10 Chris McAlister Ravens DB Arizona - 3 pb - 1 ap ------------------------------------------ >>11 Daunte Culpepper Vikings QB Central Florida 3 pb 12 Cade McNown Bears QB UCLA 13 Troy Edwards Steelers WR Louisiana Tech 14 John Tait Chiefs T Brigham Young 15 Anthony McFarland Buccaneers DT LSU >>16 Jevon Kearse Oilers LB Florida - 3 pb - 1 ap 17 Damien Woody Patriots C Boston College 18 Matt Stinchcomb Raiders T Georgia 19 Luke Petitgout Giants T Notre Dame 20 Ebenezer Ekuban Cowboys DE North Carolina ========================================= 2000 - 4 - 6 - top 5 = 3 1 Courtney Brown Browns DE Penn State >>2 LaVar Arrington Redskins LB Penn State - 3 pb >>3 Chris Samuels Redskins T Alabama - 6 pb 4 Peter Warrick Bengals WR Florida State >>5 Jamal Lewis Ravens RB Tennessee - 1 pb - 1 ap 6 Corey Simon Eagles DT Florida State 7 Thomas Jones Cardinals RB Virginia 8 Plaxico Burress Steelers WR Michigan State >>9 Brian Urlacher Bears LB New Mexico - 8 pb - 4 ap 10 Travis Taylor Ravens WR Florida --------------------------------------- 11 Ron Dayne Giants RB Wisconsin >>12 Shaun Ellis Jets DE Tennessee - 2 pb >>13 John Abraham Jets LB South Carolina - 4 pb - 2 ap >>14 Bubba Franks Packers TE Miami (FL) - 3 pb >>15 Deltha O'Neal Broncos DB California - 2 pb - 1 ap >>16 Julian Peterson 49ers LB Michigan State - 5 pb - 1 ap 17 Sebastian Janikowski Raiders K Florida State 18 Chad Pennington Jets QB Marshall >>19 Shaun Alexander Seahawks RB Alabama - 3 pb - 1 ap 20 Stockar McDougle Lions T Oklahoma ====================================== 2001 - 5 - 3 - top 5 = 4 >>1 Michael Vick Falcons QB Virginia Tech - 4 pb >>2 Leonard Davis Cardinals T Texas - 3 pb 3 Gerard Warren Browns DT Florida >>4 Justin Smith Bengals DE Missouri - 3 pb - 1 ap >>5 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers RB Texas Christian - 5 pb - 3 ap >>6 Richard Seymour Patriots DT Georgia - 7 pb - 3 ap 7 Andre Carter 49ers DE California 8 David Terrell Bears WR Michigan 9 Koren Robinson Seahawks WR North Carolina State 10 Jamal Reynolds Packers DE Florida State ---------------------------------------------- 11 Dan Morgan Panthers LB Miami (FL) 12 Damione Lewis Rams DT Miami (FL) >>13 Marcus Stroud Jaguars DT Georgia - 3 pb 14 Kenyatta Walker Buccaneers T Florida 15 Rod Gardner Redskins WR Clemson 16 Santana Moss Jets WR Miami (FL) >>17 Steve Hutchinson Seahawks G Michigan - 7 pb - 5 ap 18 Jeff Backus Lions T Michigan >>19 Casey Hampton Steelers DT Texas - 5 pb 20 Adam Archuleta Rams DB Arizona State ========================================== 2002 - 3 - 3 - top 5 = 1 1 David Carr Texans QB Fresno State >>2 Julius Peppers Panthers DE North Carolina - 6 pb - 3 ap 3 Joey Harrington Lions QB Oregon 4 Mike Williams Bills T Texas 5 Quentin Jammer Chargers DB Texas 6 Ryan Sims Chiefs DT North Carolina 7 Bryant McKinnie Vikings T Miami (FL) >>8 Roy Williams Cowboys DB Oklahoma - 5 pb - 1 ap >>9 John Henderson Jaguars DT Tennessee - 2 pb 10 Levi Jones Bengals T Arizona State ------------------------------------- >>11 Dwight Freeney Colts LB Syracuse - 7 pb - 3 ap 12 Wendell Bryant Cardinals DT Wisconsin 13 Donte Stallworth Saints WR Tennessee >>14 Jeremy Shockey Giants TE Miami (FL) 4 pb - 1 ap >>15 Albert Haynesworth Titans DT Tennessee - 2 pb - 2 ap 16 William Green Browns RB Boston College 17 Phillip Buchanon Raiders DB Miami (FL) 18 T.J. Duckett Falcons RB Michigan State 19 Ashley Lelie Broncos WR Hawaii 20 Javon Walker Packers WR Florida State ============================================ 2003 - 7 - 2 - top 5 = 3 >>1 Carson Palmer Bengles QB USC - 2 pb 2 Charles Rogers Detroit WR Michigan State >>3 Andre Johnson Houston WR Miami (Fla.) - 5 pb - 2 ap 4 Dewayne Robertson NYJ DT Kentucky >>5 Terence Newman Dallas CB Kansas State - 2 pb 6 Johnathan Sullivan Saints DT Georgia 7 Byron Leftwich Jaguars QB Marshall >>8 Jordan Gross Panthers OT Utah - 2 pb - 1 pb >>9 Kevin Williams Vikings DT Oklahoma State - 6 pb - 5 ap >>10 Terrell Suggs Ravens DE Arizona State - 5 pb - 1 ap -------------------------------------------- 11 Marcus Trufant Seahawks CB Washington State 12 Jimmy Kennedy Rams DT Penn State 13 Ty Warren Patriots DT Texas A&M 14 Michale Haynes Bears DE Penn State 15 Jerome McDougle Eagles DE Miami (Fla.) >>16 Troy Polamalu Steelers SS Southern California - 7 pb - 4 ap 17 Bryant Johnson Cards WR Penn State 18 Calvin Pace Cards DE Wake Forest 19 Kyle Boller Ravens QB California 20 George Foster Broncos OT Georgia ==================================================== 2004 - 5 - 4 - top 5 = 4 >>1 Eli Manning Chargers QB Mississippi - 2 pb 2 Robert Gallery Raiders OT Iowa >>3 Larry Fitzgerald Cards WR Pittsburgh - 6 pb - 1 ap >>4 Philip Rivers Giants/Chargers QB North Carolina State - 4 pb >>5 Sean Taylor Redskins DB Miami (FL) - 2 pb 6 Kellen Winslow II Browns (from Detroit) TE Miami (FL) 7 Roy Williams Lions (from Cleveland) WR Texas >>8 DeAngelo Hall Falcons DB Virginia Tech - 3 pb 9 Reggie Williams Jaguars WR Washington 10 Dunta Robinson Texans DB South Carolina -------------------------------------------------- >>11 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers QB Miami (OH) - 2 pb >>12 Jonathan Vilma NYJ LB Miami (FL) - 2 pb 13 Lee Evans Bills WR Wisconsin >>14 Tommie Harris Bears DT Oklahoma - 3 pb 15 Michael Clayton Bucs WR LSU >>16 Shawn Andrews Eagles (from San Francisco) OT Arkansas = 2 pb - 1 ap 17 D.J. Williams Broncos (from Cincinnati) LB Miami (FL) 18 Will Smith Saints DE Ohio State 19 Vernon Carey Miami (from Minnesota) OT Miami (FL) 20 Kenechi Udeze Vikings (from Miami) DE USC ================================================ 2005 - 1 - 4 - top 5 = 0 1 Alex Smith Niners QB Utah 2 Ronnie Brown Miami RB Auburn 3 Braylon Edwards Browns WR Michigan 4 Cedric Benson Bears RB Texas 5 Cadillac Williams Bucs RB Auburn 6 Pacman Jones Titans CB West Virginia 7 Troy Williamson Vikings WR South Carolina >>8 Antrel Rolle Cards DB Miami (Fla.) - 2 pb 9 Carlos Rogers Skins DB Auburn 10 Mike Williams Lions WR USC ----------------------------------------------- >>11 DeMarcus Ware Cowboys OLB Troy State - 6 pb - 4 ap >>12 Shawne Merriman Chargers OLB Maryland - 3 pb - 1 ap >>13 Jammal Brown Saints T Oklahoma - 2 pb - 1 ap 14 Thomas Davis Panthers DB Georgia >>15 Derrick Johnson Chiefs OLB Texas - 1 pb - 1 ap 16 Travis Johnson Texans DT Florida State 17 David Pollack Bengals LB Georgia 18 Erasmus James Vikings DE Wisconsin 19 Alex Barron Rams T Florida State 20 Marcus Spears Cowboys DE Louisiana State ==================================================== 2006 - 3 - 2 - top 5 = 3 >>1 Mario Williams Texans DE North Carolina State - 2 pb 2 Reggie Bush Saints RB USC >>3 Vince Young Titans QB Texas - 2 pb >>4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Jets T Virginia - 3 pb 5 A.J. Hawk Packers OLB Ohio State 6 Vernon Davis Niners TE Maryland 7 Michael Huff Raiders SS Texas 8 Donte Whitner Bills SS Ohio State 9 Ernie Sims Lions OLB Florida State 10 Matt Leinart Cards QB USC ----------------------------------------------------- 11 Jay Cutler Broncos QB Vanderbilt >>12 Haloti Ngata Ravems DT Oregon - 3 pb - 2 ap 13 Kamerion Wimbley Browns OLB Florida State 14 Brodrick Bunkley Eagles DT Florida State 15 Tye Hill Rams CB Clemson 16 Jason Allen Miami DB Tennessee 17 Chad Greenway Vikings LB Iowa 18 Bobby Carpenter Cowboys LB Ohio State >>19 Antonio Cromartie Chargers CB Florida State - 1 pb - 1 ap 20 Tamba Hali Chiefs DE Penn State ==================================================== 2007 - 3 - 2 - top 5 = 2 1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders QB Louisiana State >>2 Calvin Johnson Lions WR Georgia Tech - 2 pb - 1 ap >>3 Joe Thomas Browns OT Wisconsin - 5 pb - 3 ap 4 Gaines Adams Bucs DE Clemson 5 Levi Brown Cards OT Penn State 6 LaRon Landry Skins SS Louisiana State >>7 Adrian Peterson Vikings RB Oklahoma - 4 pb - 2 ap 8 Jamaal Anderson Falcons DE Arkansas 9 Ted Ginn Jr. Miami WR Ohio State 10 Amobi Okoye Texans DT Louisville --------------------------------------------------- >>11 Patrick Willis Niners ILB Mississippi - 5 pb - 4 ap 12 Marshawn Lynch Bills RB California 13 Adam Carriker Rams NT Nebraska >>14 Darrelle Revis Jets CB Pittsburgh - 4 pb - 3 ap 15 Lawrence Timmons Steelers LB Florida State 16 Justin Harrell Packers DT Tennessee 17 Jarvis Moss Broncos DE Florida 18 Leon Hall Bengals CB Michigan 19 Michael Griffin Titans FS Texas 20 Aaron Ross Giants CB Texas ==================================================== ==================================================== i dont think anyone (or at least myself) is trying to imply that if you pick in the top 5 or 10 that you are guaranteed a high impact player with that pick. the lists i posted clearly show that. but... i think what it does show is that you have a much better chance at achieving the goal of every organization by picking in these slots than in lower ones. to aquire a franchise player it can't just be determined by money vs. reward risk when you draft. otherwise why even draft at all in the first round? you will end up like the redskins under the former bear dc george allen and even without the the salary cap at that time it just didn't work. drafting high... will you miss sometimes? absolutely! but the old saying if you DON'T try you will NEVER succeed. if teams that draft consistanly in the top 5 spots can afford it every year why can't the bear organization in the few times over decades afford it? i think the fact that this franchise has had TWO quality qb's (one was a free agent) in 40 years speaks volumes of the risk reward consequences. these are some interesting draft stats. below are chicago bear hall of fame players and where they were drafted: HOF 1st round top 10 picks 1. Clyde Bulldog Turner 7th pick 1st round 2. Joe Stydahar 6th pick 1st round 3. Gayle Sayers 4th pick 1st round 4. Walther Payton 4th pick 1st round 5. Dan Hampton 4th pick 1st round 6. George McAfee 2nd pick 1st round (drafted by eagles and immediately traded to bears) 7. Sid Luckman 2nd pick 1st round 8. Mike Ditka 5th pick 1st round 9. George Connor 5th pick 1st round (drafted by ny giants) 10. Dick Butkus 3rd pick 1st round HOF 1st round picks 11 - + 1. Doug Atkins 11th pick 1st round HOF later rounds 1. Mike Singletary 38th pick 2nd round 3. Bill George 2nd round 2. Stan Jones 5th round 6. Richard Dent 8th round 4. Danny Fortmann 9th round pick 5. George Blanda 12th round HOF not listed as draft picks. prior to 1936 1. Bronco Nagurski 2. George Musso 3. Roy Lyman 4. Bill Hewitt 5. Ed Healey 6. George Halas 7. John Driscol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 CASE CLOSED. Lock this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackerDog Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 CASE CLOSED. Lock this thread. Seems a might unfriendly there, don't you think? In any case, assuming your analysis is 100% accurate (and I have no reason to doubt you) then there are 28% of the years in which better caliber players are selected in the 11-20 range rather than the 1-10 range. Frankly I'm surprised. I would expect it to be a lot closer to 100% of the time. So... I guess what I'm saying is sure, it should work out the way you suggest, we should get better players with an earlier pick. Two things to note: 1.) Because GM's are human, they make mistakes. To the tune of only getting better players in the top ten about 3 times as often as the next ten picks. 2.) When you bust in the first ten picks, the cost is more significant and can have longer lasting negative impact on the team. PS. Just noticed in the HOF portion at the bottom of the long analysis, Dan Hampton is listed twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Besides that Jason, you lost focus of my point. Yours being that it was ok (my words) to lose late in the season to gain a few draft spots. I am not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 You know what this analysis is missing / ignoring, the fact pattern of what drove you to those additional victories. Is the improved pick, which gives you a chance at an additional player, more valuable, than the improvement of key young players on your roster / momentum build heading into the following season? I.e. would you rather finish with a top 15 pick because your team ran off 5 straight wins and you had some young stars developing and leading you down that path? Or would you have rather lost all those games, because your young talent busted, thus getting the #1 pick, but being so far worse as an organization and having so many more needs now vs. had you been picking 15th? I think that is what is missing from this analysis. Clearly you can get better talent picking top 10 vs. 15 and below, but, if you have a better team around it, the increased benefit from the right pick at 15 is far more valuable than what you are going to pick between 5-10. The exception to this rule is when a clear cut franchise QB is staring right at you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 You know what this analysis is missing / ignoring, the fact pattern of what drove you to those additional victories. Is the improved pick, which gives you a chance at an additional player, more valuable, than the improvement of key young players on your roster / momentum build heading into the following season? I.e. would you rather finish with a top 15 pick because your team ran off 5 straight wins and you had some young stars developing and leading you down that path? Or would you have rather lost all those games, because your young talent busted, thus getting the #1 pick, but being so far worse as an organization and having so many more needs now vs. had you been picking 15th? I think that is what is missing from this analysis. Clearly you can get better talent picking top 10 vs. 15 and below, but, if you have a better team around it, the increased benefit from the right pick at 15 is far more valuable than what you are going to pick between 5-10. The exception to this rule is when a clear cut franchise QB is staring right at you. i think you are basically saying what those who have said that losing these final games are implying? to me it goes like this... once you are eliminated mathematically from post season you treat the remaining games like they were preseason. you sit your veteran core that are under contract for the following season that you INTEND to have return. you play your second and third string players to see, as you suggested yourself, whether they are dead weight on your team or whether they warrant a roster spot next season. it is just common sense and healthy for your future success. there are exceptions of course - free agents who want to showcase their talent for the open market. sparingly adding offensive linemen to prevent qb's from getting killed by putting one or two into your existing line per game and compensating with additional blocking schemes using fullbacks, TE's etc. to help block if the transition is failing. the choice of keeper veterans under contract trying to make incentive money or possibly set records if they choose to do so. but you CERTAINLY sit veterans that have any significant injury without question. this is not giving your team the best chance to win but it is necessary to really evaluate the health of your roster for the following season. if you win these games great. that means your backups have real potential. if you lose you still have evaluated the talent and you get a better draft pick. it also gives your vet core time to heal or at the least not risk further injury. it's a win/win situation. that said, what gauls me is the lovie aspect. keeping your veteran core in these games that mean nothing to fatten their win/loss record for the coaches to keep their jobs. in this instance you are risking the following season for absolutely nothing and have learned nothing of what kind of depth or future starters you have on your roster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackerDog Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 that said, what gauls me is the lovie aspect. keeping your veteran core in these games that mean nothing to fatten their win/loss record for the coaches to keep their jobs. in this instance you are risking the following season for absolutely nothing and have learned nothing of what kind of depth or future starters you have on your roster. I'd say any coaching staff insecure about their future with the team could act the same way Lovie did. I don't think this is a Lovie exclusive trait. I agree with your other general observations about changing things up once the team is mathematically eliminated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I'd say any coaching staff insecure about their future with the team could act the same way Lovie did. I don't think this is a Lovie exclusive trait. i totally agree. i just used lovie as an example because i am still pissed from when url got hurt for nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I'd say any coaching staff insecure about their future with the team could act the same way Lovie did. I don't think this is a Lovie exclusive trait. I agree with your other general observations about changing things up once the team is mathematically eliminated. I don't recall any team that just decided to say, bench its QB because or its veteran players, because the season was over. If they are injured, that is one thing, otherwise, I think the veterans and young players should be playing every week. The exception to that rule is if you have veterans who are not part of future plans (i.e., impending free agents that you don't plan to bring back or guys who you might not bring back and thus you need to see other guys on film). In those cases, I am on board. If we were to pull every veteran and just play a million practice squaders the second we were eliminated, it would be very hard to actually gauge where your team stands in the grand scheme of things. Heck, if we just pulled the plug on someone like Houston 5 or 6 weeks ago, we probably would have came to a much different decision than I presume Bears bass would come to today (i.e., that we need to keep him). Also, if you pull your QB, how do you evaluate other wideouts or even backs. With the backup in (presuming it is a garbage backup with little upside and you plan on keeping your current QB the starter), you are going to make it harder to evaluate wideouts and probably your RB's (as people stack the box). Might also make it more difficult to evaluate young olinemen. Oh and while this is a business, these guys are paid to play and fans want to see guys play. I'd be pretty pissed if I paid money to see a bunch of practice squaders run around the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackerDog Posted January 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 Oh and while this is a business, these guys are paid to play and fans want to see guys play. I'd be pretty pissed if I paid money to see a bunch of practice squaders run around the field. All valid points. Thing is, usually when a team is bad enough to be thinking about doing something like this, the coaching staff is in a win at any cost mode to save their jobs. So I doubt you'd see it very often. Further, you don't just bench everyone, you do it subtly. Just use the opportunity to evaluate and coach up the guys who might otherwise not get PT if you were a legit contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted January 4, 2016 Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 All valid points. Thing is, usually when a team is bad enough to be thinking about doing something like this, the coaching staff is in a win at any cost mode to save their jobs. So I doubt you'd see it very often. Further, you don't just bench everyone, you do it subtly. Just use the opportunity to evaluate and coach up the guys who might otherwise not get PT if you were a legit contender. The Bears did well mixing in young players, some off practice squads, in the last few games. Guys like SMC went out injured and Timu got a shot to start a couple games instead of Anderson/Jones. Jeffrey went down (again) and Meredith was back in on quite a few snaps against Detroit. Oline already had the backups out there: Leno, Grasu, Omameh/Ducasse. On defense we got two games out of Jones-Quartey at Safety after he struggled a bit earlier in the year. Other than Will Sutton I had no idea who was playing Dline for us against Detroit. Veterans like Houston and Young played a lot, which was fine considering they are still improving and working on things for next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted January 5, 2016 Report Share Posted January 5, 2016 Seems a might unfriendly there, don't you think? In any case, assuming your analysis is 100% accurate (and I have no reason to doubt you) then there are 28% of the years in which better caliber players are selected in the 11-20 range rather than the 1-10 range. Frankly I'm surprised. I would expect it to be a lot closer to 100% of the time. So... I guess what I'm saying is sure, it should work out the way you suggest, we should get better players with an earlier pick. Two things to note: 1.) Because GM's are human, they make mistakes. To the tune of only getting better players in the top ten about 3 times as often as the next ten picks. 2.) When you bust in the first ten picks, the cost is more significant and can have longer lasting negative impact on the team. PS. Just noticed in the HOF portion at the bottom of the long analysis, Dan Hampton is listed twice. I'm just sick of the argument is all. 72% in favor, even though we both thought it would be higher, is enough. That is a high percentage. 72% is something I'd take to Vegas and become a millionaire many times over. Besides that Jason, you lost focus of my point. Yours being that it was ok (my words) to lose late in the season to gain a few draft spots. I am not. Keep in mind I never said the Bears should try to lose the games. I'm just saying that when the team is obviously in need of a lot of help, it has a statistical probability of helping the team long term to lose (not on purpose) and get a better draft position. I believe all the data in this thread pretty much proves that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.