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Could the Bears get screwed at 11?


jason

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I was thinking about the nightmare scenario possibility. Could it be possible that all the likely guys are gone?

 

1. TEN - Jeremy Tunsil - I don't see how he is not the #1 pick.

2. CLE - QB - Who cares who it is. They're picking a QB.

3. SD - Joey Bosa - He's largely thought of as the best guy in the draft.

4. DAL - Jalen Ramsey - They are picking him or Hargreaves. I'm convinced of it.

5. JAX - Myles Jack - They need defense everywhere. Getting a field-general makes sense.

6. BAL - A'Shawn Robinson - Canty is weak, and their LBs are firm.

7. SF - Ronnie Stanley - They just hired Chip Kelly. He's going offense.

8. MIA - Jaylon Smith - The second ILB jumps off the board.

9. TB - Deforest Buckner - Obviously a great pick for them.

10. NYG - Reggie Ragland - They need a MLB. Brinkley sucks.

 

Assuming no trades, all of those picks could happen. The most unlikely one is Miami's at #8. Otherwise, that could happen.

 

Who the hell do the Bears pick at that point? Is it Hargreaves by default? If so, would you be happy with it?

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If they don't resign Porter, or sign another CB than Hargreaves is the obvious pick.

 

I know some say he isn't a 3-4 DL, but I would also consider Sheldon Rankins. He is clearly comfortable playing the position as that is where he played his whole college career. I love how he uses his hands.

 

Jarran Reed would be another guy to consider.

 

I really think Darron Lee should be in the conversation, and after he blows up the combine, I think he will.

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I was thinking about the nightmare scenario possibility. Could it be possible that all the likely guys are gone? 1. TEN - Jeremy Tunsil - I don't see how he is not the #1 pick. 2. CLE - QB - Who cares who it is. They're picking a QB. 3. SD - Joey Bosa - He's largely thought of as the best guy in the draft. 4. DAL - Jalen Ramsey - They are picking him or Hargreaves. I'm convinced of it. 5. JAX - Myles Jack - They need defense everywhere. Getting a field-general makes sense. 6. BAL - A'Shawn Robinson - Canty is weak, and their LBs are firm. 7. SF - Ronnie Stanley - They just hired Chip Kelly. He's going offense. 8. MIA - Jaylon Smith - The second ILB jumps off the board. 9. TB - Deforest Buckner - Obviously a great pick for them. 10. NYG - Reggie Ragland - They need a MLB. Brinkley sucks. Assuming no trades, all of those picks could happen. The most unlikely one is Miami's at #8. Otherwise, that could happen. Who the hell do the Bears pick at that point? Is it Hargreaves by default? If so, would you be happy with it?

 

Ezekiel Elliott RB OSU :headbang ........................................wait for it 5,4,3,2,1 :chair

 

Other possibilities: Vernon Hargreaves CB, Noah Spence OLB, Jarran Reed DT, Darron Lee OLB, Wentz/Goff/ QB. And just so you know Elliot was a to get you worked up.

 

 

 

 

 

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FWIW - I didn't even consider that some of you would hint at or straight up mention a QB. That would be a monster surprise.

Dont count out Noah Spence/Edge rusher, which could be our pick even if one of those guys drop.

 

The thing everyone understands about the SB was pass rush,I think he could be our pick.

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If the QB remaining is Wentz take him. I'll stick with BPA and on my board he's the next up but that's only because you said we had to pick here. However, with two QBs remaining they will be trade bait for New Orleans, Philly, Rams, Buffalo, and especially Houston. Someone will bite.

 

With our top 4 targets off the board by #11, I don't see much drop off in talent between 11 and 22. With so many needs I'd go all the way back to Houston's 22nd pick if they gave us good value in return.

 

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I looked at 10 different Mock Drafts to get the consensus top 10, or the likely projected top 10.

 

Based on the 10 mocks I looked at, there were 6 players off the board in the top 10 of every draft:

 

1. Tunsil (#1 in all mocks)

2. Ramsey (5th was lowest slot)

3. Goff (2nd, 4th, or 7th)

4. Bosa (between 3 and 6)

5. Buckner (between 3 and 10)

6. Hargreaves (between 5 an 9)

 

Jack was selected 9 times out of 10 in the top 10, so there is a 90% chance that he would be gone by our pick. That makes 7 players.

 

Then you have Stanley who was selected in the top 10 8 times, as high as 6 and as low as 16, but only twice out of the top 10 and once to us at 11. The odds of him being there are low, 20%, so rule him out. That makes 8.

 

Then you have Wentz. As high as #2 and as low as #22. In the top 10, 50% of the time. We will call him 9.

 

The last player with at least half of the mocks in the top 10 was Spence with 6 times and a high of 9th and low of 29th. That is #10.

 

So that leaves the following players with over an 80% chance of being there at #10:

 

11. Robinson, DT, Alabama (never in top 10, 11-12th 6 times)

12. Smith, LB, Notre Dame (top 10 x2)

13. Treadwell, WR Mississippi (top 10 x1)

14. Ragland, LB, Alabama (top 10 x2)

15. Elliott, RB, Ohio St (top 10 x1)

16. Lynch, QB, Memphis (top 10 x1)

17. Lawson, DE, Clemson (top 10 x1)

18. Dodd, DE, Clemson (top 10 x1)

 

The rest, never in top 10 but several selections in the teens:

19. Rankins, DT, Louisville

20. Conklin, OT, Michigan St

21. Alexander, CB, Clemson

22. Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi

23. Butler, DT, LA Tech

24. Reed, DT, Alabama

25. Decker, OT, Ohio St

 

* - used Kiper, NFL.com (multiple), CBS, Walter, Drafttek, Draftsite

 

using Jason's draft, and my rankings, the following would be BPA:

 

Hargreaves-6, Wentz-9, Spence-10

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I looked at 10 different Mock Drafts to get the consensus top 10, or the likely projected top 10.

 

Based on the 10 mocks I looked at, there were 6 players off the board in the top 10 of every draft:

 

1. Tunsil (#1 in all mocks)

2. Ramsey (5th was lowest slot)

3. Goff (2nd, 4th, or 7th)

4. Bosa (between 3 and 6)

5. Buckner (between 3 and 10)

6. Hargreaves (between 5 an 9)

 

Jack was selected 9 times out of 10 in the top 10, so there is a 90% chance that he would be gone by our pick. That makes 7 players.

 

Then you have Stanley who was selected in the top 10 8 times, as high as 6 and as low as 16, but only twice out of the top 10 and once to us at 11. The odds of him being there are low, 20%, so rule him out. That makes 8.

 

Then you have Wentz. As high as #2 and as low as #22. In the top 10, 50% of the time. We will call him 9.

 

The last player with at least half of the mocks in the top 10 was Spence with 6 times and a high of 9th and low of 29th. That is #10.

 

So that leaves the following players with over an 80% chance of being there at #10:

 

11. Robinson, DT, Alabama (never in top 10, 11-12th 6 times)

12. Smith, LB, Notre Dame (top 10 x2)

13. Treadwell, WR Mississippi (top 10 x1)

14. Ragland, LB, Alabama (top 10 x2)

15. Elliott, RB, Ohio St (top 10 x1)

16. Lynch, QB, Memphis (top 10 x1)

17. Lawson, DE, Clemson (top 10 x1)

18. Dodd, DE, Clemson (top 10 x1)

 

The rest, never in top 10 but several selections in the teens:

19. Rankins, DT, Louisville

20. Conklin, OT, Michigan St

21. Alexander, CB, Clemson

22. Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi

23. Butler, DT, LA Tech

24. Reed, DT, Alabama

25. Decker, OT, Ohio St

 

* - used Kiper, NFL.com (multiple), CBS, Walter, Drafttek, Draftsite

 

using Jason's draft, and my rankings, the following would be BPA:

 

Hargreaves-6, Wentz-9, Spence-10

Out of those 3 I think they would go with Spence.

 

the SB showed how important pass rush is and how it makes the rest of the defense better.

 

I would probably take Jaylon Smith if I was making the pick based on his skill set, but the injury may not allow him to play this year.

I think is a difference playmaker this D so badly needs.

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Dont count out Noah Spence/Edge rusher, which could be our pick even if one of those guys drop.

 

The thing everyone understands about the SB was pass rush,I think he could be our pick.

 

I would be very unhappy with that pick. The competition in the OVC is very bad. I know this from first hand experience. He should have had double his stats. I don't want the Bears to pick a workout warrior or a combine champion.

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I would be very unhappy with that pick. The competition in the OVC is very bad. I know this from first hand experience. He should have had double his stats. I don't want the Bears to pick a workout warrior or a combine champion.

 

I agree with that assessment and when watching film of those games he doesn't jump out at all, not even physically as in elite speed/quickness among the players. Caveat emptor!

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I was thinking about the nightmare scenario possibility. Could it be possible that all the likely guys are gone?

 

1. TEN - Jeremy Tunsil - I don't see how he is not the #1 pick.

2. CLE - QB - Who cares who it is. They're picking a QB.

3. SD - Joey Bosa - He's largely thought of as the best guy in the draft.

4. DAL - Jalen Ramsey - They are picking him or Hargreaves. I'm convinced of it.

5. JAX - Myles Jack - They need defense everywhere. Getting a field-general makes sense.

6. BAL - A'Shawn Robinson - Canty is weak, and their LBs are firm.

7. SF - Ronnie Stanley - They just hired Chip Kelly. He's going offense.

8. MIA - Jaylon Smith - The second ILB jumps off the board.

9. TB - Deforest Buckner - Obviously a great pick for them.

10. NYG - Reggie Ragland - They need a MLB. Brinkley sucks.

 

Assuming no trades, all of those picks could happen. The most unlikely one is Miami's at #8. Otherwise, that could happen.

 

Who the hell do the Bears pick at that point? Is it Hargreaves by default? If so, would you be happy with it?

Seems like a scenerio all to familiar as a Bears fan. One pick too late to get the guy we covet. If that happens, hopefully we can trade down. Otherwise we may have angry fans because we thought the GM reached for his guy. As for CB, word is Will Jackson is highly thought of by the Bears and others. What would the reaction be if they took him?

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Seems like a scenerio all to familiar as a Bears fan. One pick too late to get the guy we covet. If that happens, hopefully we can trade down. Otherwise we may have angry fans because we thought the GM reached for his guy. As for CB, word is Will Jackson is highly thought of by the Bears and others. What would the reaction be if they took him?

 

I wouldn't be happy at all if they took a projected 2nd Rd pick at #11 overall. Better to grab a guy like Ragland who is at least mid-late first. There are a bunch of players rated higher that would make better choices. Just give me Jaran Reed at #11 and I'd feel much better.

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I would be very unhappy with that pick. The competition in the OVC is very bad. I know this from first hand experience. He should have had double his stats. I don't want the Bears to pick a workout warrior or a combine champion.

Going off BPA, it would be Hargreaves.

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Seems like a scenerio all to familiar as a Bears fan. One pick too late to get the guy we covet. If that happens, hopefully we can trade down. Otherwise we may have angry fans because we thought the GM reached for his guy. As for CB, word is Will Jackson is highly thought of by the Bears and others. What would the reaction be if they took him?

 

Actually saw a mock that project Jackson to the Bears in rd 2.

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I was thinking about the nightmare scenario possibility. Could it be possible that all the likely guys are gone?

 

1. TEN - Jeremy Tunsil - I don't see how he is not the #1 pick.

2. CLE - QB - Who cares who it is. They're picking a QB.

3. SD - Joey Bosa - He's largely thought of as the best guy in the draft.

4. DAL - Jalen Ramsey - They are picking him or Hargreaves. I'm convinced of it.

5. JAX - Myles Jack - They need defense everywhere. Getting a field-general makes sense.

6. BAL - A'Shawn Robinson - Canty is weak, and their LBs are firm.

7. SF - Ronnie Stanley - They just hired Chip Kelly. He's going offense.

8. MIA - Jaylon Smith - The second ILB jumps off the board.

9. TB - Deforest Buckner - Obviously a great pick for them.

10. NYG - Reggie Ragland - They need a MLB. Brinkley sucks.

 

Assuming no trades, all of those picks could happen. The most unlikely one is Miami's at #8. Otherwise, that could happen.

 

Who the hell do the Bears pick at that point? Is it Hargreaves by default? If so, would you be happy with it?

I think the Giants will go OL in the first which could leave Ragland for us but this draft is total crap shoot.

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I would be very unhappy with that pick. The competition in the OVC is very bad. I know this from first hand experience. He should have had double his stats. I don't want the Bears to pick a workout warrior or a combine champion.

I have seen mant draft boards that have him listed between 9th rated thru 15, if all the defensive playmaks are gone, i think it may be between him and (REED of Alabama)they would be the next best D players on the board

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I have seen mant draft boards that have him listed between 9th rated thru 15, if all the defensive playmaks are gone, i think it may be between him and (REED of Alabama)they would be the next best D players on the board

 

We can only hope it's Reed then. I really hope that doesn't pan out like you project.

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We can only hope it's Reed then. I really hope that doesn't pan out like you project.

I think with the comments yesterday by Pace about Liking Leno and addressing the oling in FAgency that we leave out the two OTs

I think there will be one QB taken maybe two so we rule out QB at our spot.

So that leaves these consensus defensive players in the top 10

 

Bosa/OLB

Jack/OLB or ILB

Buckner/DE

Ramsey/CB or S

Hargreaves/CB

 

These are consistent top 10 picks

 

Others showing up in the top 15

 

Jaylon Smith/OLB or ILB

Noah Spence/OLB

Jarron Reed/DE

A'Shawn Robinson/DT

Robert Nkemdiche/DT or DE

Shaq Lawson/OLB

Sheldon Rankins/DT

Ragland/ILB

 

This group has some upside players

 

So if one of the first group drops, it will be one of those picks.

Out of the next group our pick will be:

Jaylon Smith

Noah Spence

A'Shawn Robinson

Jarron Reed

Reggie Ragland

 

out of that group I would take Smith first

 

 

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I think with the comments yesterday by Pace about Liking Leno and addressing the oling in FAgency that we leave out the two OTs

I think there will be one QB taken maybe two so we rule out QB at our spot.

So that leaves these consensus defensive players in the top 10

 

Bosa/OLB

Jack/OLB or ILB

Buckner/DE

Ramsey/CB or S

Hargreaves/CB

 

These are consistent top 10 picks

 

Others showing up in the top 15

 

Jaylon Smith/OLB or ILB

Noah Spence/OLB

Jarron Reed/DE

A'Shawn Robinson/DT

Robert Nkemdiche/DT or DE

Shaq Lawson/OLB

Sheldon Rankins/DT

Ragland/ILB

 

This group has some upside players

 

So if one of the first group drops, it will be one of those picks.

Out of the next group our pick will be:

Jaylon Smith

Noah Spence

A'Shawn Robinson

Jarron Reed

Reggie Ragland

 

out of that group I would take Smith first

 

 

Interesting thoughts. I think you're probably right. If the Bears are left with the five players you listed, I think they have to pass on Jaylon Smith because of the risk. If there is even a 10% chance he misses a good portion of the season, that's a risk Pace can't afford. I already said Spence is not worth the pick. He should have far more production in the OVC. That leaves the Alabama trio. I think the Bears need OL & ILB far more than DE. That leads back to Ragland, who I want anyway.

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Interesting thoughts. I think you're probably right. If the Bears are left with the five players you listed, I think they have to pass on Jaylon Smith because of the risk. If there is even a 10% chance he misses a good portion of the season, that's a risk Pace can't afford. I already said Spence is not worth the pick. He should have far more production in the OVC. That leaves the Alabama trio. I think the Bears need OL far more than DE. That leads back to Ragland, who I want anyway.

I would hate to take an injured player but Smith is a potenial stud in the same mode as Luke Keatley, I would take that chance.

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Seems like a scenerio all to familiar as a Bears fan. One pick too late to get the guy we covet. If that happens, hopefully we can trade down. Otherwise we may have angry fans because we thought the GM reached for his guy. As for CB, word is Will Jackson is highly thought of by the Bears and others. What would the reaction be if they took him?

I mentioned earlier how the Bears liked this kid as well as other teams. His combine results show why they did and he has now put himself into first round considerations. I personally do not want CB in rd1, since I think DL/LB are bigger needs, but if we can trade down his name becomes relevant.

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I mentioned earlier how the Bears liked this kid as well as other teams. His combine results show why they did and he has now put himself into first round considerations. I personally do not want CB in rd1, since I think DL/LB are bigger needs, but if we can trade down his name becomes relevant.

 

If they don't bring back Porter or add a CB in free agency, an argument could be made for a CB being just as high a need as DL/ILB. I think we've all just assumed Porter will be back.

 

 

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