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Where do the Bears go in the 1st?


jason

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To sum it up, if we can get Phillip Rivers part 2, it's going to be that much easier to piece together the rest of the team to be competitive every year. His team hasn't done that effectively, but when they do they are right there.

 

That has such a substantial impact compared to every position, that they are irrelevant outside of our opinion of the bpa at their position.

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With the two ILBs and Unrein signed, and an OT to set the right edge, it worries me the Bears may actually be thinking about a QB in the first.

 

What else makes sense?

-Ragland and Mack are out in my opinion.

-Way too deep at DE to spend the pick there.

-The Bears best defensive position is OLB, so that wouldn't be a good move.

 

I think the FA signings are good enough that the Bears have narrowed down their likely 1st round positions to: CB, LT, and QB. But suppose they are including RB in their consideration?

 

The QB and RB portions of that really worries me.

 

I sure hope QB-needy teams are thinking like you are. Once you get past the elite prospects in the top 10, and none fall to us then the talent at 20 is just as good as what we'll get at 11. Make the trade down so someone can come on up and take Paxton Lynch. He's the last of the 3 likely starting QBs in this draft. Nobody will want to trade into the top 10 to get him as the price is too high but at 11, it's a reach to pick him but it's not crazy, and the cost to move up a few spots to take him isn't exorbitant.

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See, I think the DL is in much better shape than OL (especially if we get Hicks or a comparable FA DE). We resigned Unrein, who did OK last year. You have previous draft picks Ferguson and Sutton, who haven't stayed healthy, but have flashed some when they've been out there. McPhee plays DE sometimes and Houston is still usable there.

 

Compare that with the OL. Right now the starters look good: Leno-Slauson-Grasu-Long-Massie. But we have no one I've ever heard of to step in if any of those guys get hurt or if Leno falters in his first full year. I follow the Bears and I've never heard of these guys, outside of Tayo, who hasn't done anything yet. Martin Wallace? Jason Weaver? TJ Henry? Nick Becton? (I even made one of those names up, and you probably didn't notice.) You can get guard depth in the middle rounds, but this team is desperate (IMO) for a potential stud starter at LT or swing tackle to push Leno.

 

Pretty much nailed my thoughts on the subject.

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I couldn't disagree more. Projects don't work at QB. For every Brady you have dozens to hundreds that don't work out. Your later picks should be for starters hopefully, depth atleast, and someone that will contribute to your team.

 

I'd also argue that BPA doesn't apply to QB. To go to an extreme, the next legendary kicker has 0 value compared to an average QB. The price that QB's get paid are reflective of that. If you want to be comeptive for the next 10 years, you need a QB. The only other option is to build a team where you have to be near the top and every year be able to replace the multiple other pieces you lose. We see it every year multiple times with Aaron Rodgers. Their defense is usually pretty bad. They lost Jordy Nelson this year and still competitive. While you may not be the best at your position in the draft according to the big heads, that doesn't apply to value you bring to a team over the next 10-15 years.

 

There are two problems with your argument. One is that your comparison requires one of the best QBs in the NFL. A no doubt, top 3 every single year guy. A HOF lock QB. A guy who will potentially go down as one of the best ever. 99 out of 100 QBs drafted aren't Rodgers. Even an assortment of the 1st round QBs don't hold up to the rigors of being a crazy superstar. You basically ruin your own argument in your first paragraph. Second, and most importantly, is Jay Cutler. He threw to nearly nobody last year, Josh Bellamy, Marc Mariani, Marquess Wilson, Cameron Meredith. His receiving corp was gutted! His TEs missed significant time. His #1 WR missed a third of the season. His defense was atrocious. And he STILL put up his best overall season as a Bear.

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See, I think the DL is in much better shape than OL (especially if we get Hicks or a comparable FA DE). We resigned Unrein, who did OK last year. You have previous draft picks Ferguson and Sutton, who haven't stayed healthy, but have flashed some when they've been out there. McPhee plays DE sometimes and Houston is still usable there.

 

Compare that with the OL. Right now the starters look good: Leno-Slauson-Grasu-Long-Massie. But we have no one I've ever heard of to step in if any of those guys get hurt or if Leno falters in his first full year. I follow the Bears and I've never heard of these guys, outside of Tayo, who hasn't done anything yet. Martin Wallace? Jason Weaver? TJ Henry? Nick Becton? (I even made one of those names up, and you probably didn't notice.) You can get guard depth in the middle rounds, but this team is desperate (IMO) for a potential stud starter at LT or swing tackle to push Leno.

 

Let me ask you this: are Ferguson and Sutton legitimate 5 technique starters? Unrein is nothing more than a serviceable back-up. Will Goldman continue to improve? As for moving McPhee and Houston to DE, those are our most important edge rushers. Before moving them, we'd need to add another big time OLB (which I think we'll do at #11).

 

Basically you are arguing we should take a LT at #11 because we need a back-up? That makes no sense. You draft a LT because we think Leno sucks. But that's contrary to what all the beat-writers think. At least with the o-line, you have 3 really good NFL starters--Long, Massie, and Slausob--and two guys you hope will be good in Leno and Slauson. With the 3 interior defense line positions, you basically have one guy you hope will be good in Eddie Goldman.

 

I'm sure we will add quality back-ups on the offensive line. Will Montgomery was a nice free agent addition last year.

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There are two problems with your argument. One is that your comparison requires one of the best QBs in the NFL. A no doubt, top 3 every single year guy. A HOF lock QB. A guy who will potentially go down as one of the best ever. 99 out of 100 QBs drafted aren't Rodgers. Even an assortment of the 1st round QBs don't hold up to the rigors of being a crazy superstar. You basically ruin your own argument in your first paragraph. Second, and most importantly, is Jay Cutler. He threw to nearly nobody last year, Josh Bellamy, Marc Mariani, Marquess Wilson, Cameron Meredith. His receiving corp was gutted! His TEs missed significant time. His #1 WR missed a third of the season. His defense was atrocious. And he STILL put up his best overall season as a Bear.

Using one of the top is part of my point. If you have a top QB, you are competitive every year. A top 10 QB will allow your team to be competitive year in and year out. You find those QB's early in the draft or you get really lucky and one emerges.

 

Big Ben, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and so on, you plug them into the KC Chiefs instead of Alex Smith(using him as an example of average talent QB) and the team is automatically a lot better.

 

I'm was making my point without arguing Cutler, but you mentioned him and I think you support my idea when you do. You say Cutler just had his best over all season. His best season was 16th in QB rating, 19th in yard and TDs.

 

He's had 10 years in the league, and average to below average is his best in your opinion(based on what you called his best year). He's going to be 33 in a couple weeks. The team is rebuilding, and on paper they look a little better this year. He is going to need replaced due his age soonanyways, whether you think he is a good QB or not. If this team is getting better, we won't see them this close to getting a top QB anytime soon.

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Using one of the top is part of my point. If you have a top QB, you are competitive every year. A top 10 QB will allow your team to be competitive year in and year out. You find those QB's early in the draft or you get really lucky and one emerges.

 

Big Ben, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and so on, you plug them into the KC Chiefs instead of Alex Smith(using him as an example of average talent QB) and the team is automatically a lot better.

 

I'm was making my point without arguing Cutler, but you mentioned him and I think you support my idea when you do. You say Cutler just had his best over all season. His best season was 16th in QB rating, 19th in yard and TDs.

 

He's had 10 years in the league, and average to below average is his best in your opinion(based on what you called his best year). He's going to be 33 in a couple weeks. The team is rebuilding, and on paper they look a little better this year. He is going to need replaced due his age soonanyways, whether you think he is a good QB or not. If this team is getting better, we won't see them this close to getting a top QB anytime soon.

 

I'm not sure your argument that we should spend a high first round pick on a QB is helped by saying we need a guy like Ben (high 1st round pick), Rodgers (late first round pick), Brady (6th round pick), Bree's (2nd round pick) , or Luck (consensus best player in the draft and#1 pick) rather than a guy like Alex Smith (#1 pick). I have no problem drafting a QB high in a good QB draft and certainly see the value in that. I just don't think this is one of those.

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Using one of the top is part of my point. If you have a top QB, you are competitive every year. A top 10 QB will allow your team to be competitive year in and year out. You find those QB's early in the draft or you get really lucky and one emerges.

 

Big Ben, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and so on, you plug them into the KC Chiefs instead of Alex Smith(using him as an example of average talent QB) and the team is automatically a lot better.

 

I'm was making my point without arguing Cutler, but you mentioned him and I think you support my idea when you do. You say Cutler just had his best over all season. His best season was 16th in QB rating, 19th in yard and TDs.

 

He's had 10 years in the league, and average to below average is his best in your opinion(based on what you called his best year). He's going to be 33 in a couple weeks. The team is rebuilding, and on paper they look a little better this year. He is going to need replaced due his age soonanyways, whether you think he is a good QB or not. If this team is getting better, we won't see them this close to getting a top QB anytime soon.

 

 

I agree with Cutler due to age not being a long term answer. I think he prolly has 3 good years left. As far as arguing Cutlers ranking last year please take a look at Cutlers stats compared to Rodgers. Rodgers probably had a better WR group while playing in the same system since his rookie year. Cutler in a new system with the crappiest group of WR in the NFL is very comparable to Rodgers. Rodgers had about 100 more attempts and 10 more TD's.

 

 

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Normally I'd love a LT. Except this team has indicated they want to solidify the front on offense and defense. While Charles Leno may or may not be good, at least I've heard of him. With defense and the front three, we have Eddie Goldman and . . .

 

Ego Sutton? Will Sutton? Both of those guys are similar at DE to Leno at LT.

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Using one of the top is part of my point. If you have a top QB, you are competitive every year. A top 10 QB will allow your team to be competitive year in and year out. You find those QB's early in the draft or you get really lucky and one emerges.

 

Big Ben, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and so on, you plug them into the KC Chiefs instead of Alex Smith(using him as an example of average talent QB) and the team is automatically a lot better.

 

I'm was making my point without arguing Cutler, but you mentioned him and I think you support my idea when you do. You say Cutler just had his best over all season. His best season was 16th in QB rating, 19th in yard and TDs.

 

He's had 10 years in the league, and average to below average is his best in your opinion(based on what you called his best year). He's going to be 33 in a couple weeks. The team is rebuilding, and on paper they look a little better this year. He is going to need replaced due his age soonanyways, whether you think he is a good QB or not. If this team is getting better, we won't see them this close to getting a top QB anytime soon.

 

No, you're simultaneously supporting and hurting your argument.

 

Cutler had his best year as a Bear and he had nearly nothing to work with. The OL was average at best, the receiving corp was busted, and the D was atrocious. That would imply he is a good QB, a top 10 QB since the Bears were so close to winning several more games. You plug Big Ben, Brady, or any of the other names on your list into the Bears lineup last year, and they likely don't win much more than Cutler. It's not just the superstar QB keeping teams competitive.

 

We do agree, however, that Cutler won't be around for many more years. The Bears should be looking for a QB, but not a first round QB this year.

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Our wideouts suck. We had to franchise our fat wideout and may eventually lose him. I'm officially starting the Treadwell bandwagon

 

Certainly won't see me on that bandwagon. Alshon/White should be a helluva duo.

 

I love that Alshon is working out at Unbreakable, which is a gym owned by Jay Glazer and Brian Urlacher. They do a lot of advanced stuff that should keep him healthy.

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Certainly won't see me on that bandwagon. Alshon/White should be a helluva duo.

 

I love that Alshon is working out at Unbreakable, which is a gym owned by Jay Glazer and Brian Urlacher. They do a lot of advanced stuff that should keep him healthy.

 

Agreed with you. I'd HATE seeing a WR in the first. Alshon and White should be a great combo that compliments each other well. The Bears need a slot WR more than someone like Treadwell. They need a shifty, sure-handed guy who can find the holes in the zone. Basically they need Royal to be Royal from a few years ago.

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Agreed with you. I'd HATE seeing a WR in the first. Alshon and White should be a great combo that compliments each other well. The Bears need a slot WR more than someone like Treadwell. They need a shifty, sure-handed guy who can find the holes in the zone. Basically they need Royal to be Royal from a few years ago.

WR is probably the only position we wont be looking at. To much invested in WR to add another.

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I think BPA is a real possibility at this point. I get an odd feeling that they may actually be looking to address OLB at this point. Maybe Shaq Lawson or someone who can be the Von Miller replica?

I totally agree with you and Lawson is one of the top 3 rated OLBs. McPhee is a good player but should only be your 2nd leading sacker on a team and then you have something.

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