Bears QB Comparison

[adam]

With Barkley's 4th start and 5th game played, all 3 QB's for the Bears this year had a large enough sample size to give a good comparison between the group.

 

Out of all the stats, the biggest things that jumped out to me were the sacks and INTs. Hoyer had 200 attempts without a INT and was only sacked 4 times while maintaining the highest Comp% of the group at 67%. Comparatively, Cutler was sacked 17 times and had 5 INTs in only 137 attempts. Barkley has been sacked 4 times and has thrown 7 INTs in 162 attempts. Cutler was sacked every 8 passing attempts.

 

When looking at 3rd Downs, Hoyer was again the clear leader with a 89.9 QB Rating on 3rd Downs, Cutler has a 60.7 and Barkley has a 67.0 QB Rating on 3rd Downs.

 

Barkley's problem is with throws over the middle; he has thrown 5 of his 7 INTs, and has a 33.6 QB Rating on throws over the middle. This seems like it could be something that is improved on with more playing time.

 

For individual performances, Hoyer had 4x 300 yard games, Barkley has 2, and Cutler had zero.

 

When I looked at overall offensive production, the team averaged the most pts with Barkley under center with 22.8 Pts per Game, then Hoyer at 16.6 Pts per Game, and finally Cutler at 14.8 Pts per Game. This could be due to opponents but you also have to consider things like the O-Line and offensive skill position players.

 

Lastly, if you look at the situations, Cutler had he easiest path to success, #1 QB with his QB Coach as the OC coming into the season. He should clearly be the best QB of the bunch, and that is just not the case. Hoyer was the next coming in as the backup and based on his individual numbers, he did exactly what was asked of him. Barkley was first signed to the PS, and has had the least amount of starters to play with during his starts. So I could see his numbers trending upwards.

 

It is obvious to see why Cutler is gone; he is the least productive QB and is not worth the cap hit he carries. Hoyer is an anomaly, he puts up great numbers, yet the team and offense struggled. Barkley has played decent under some tough conditions, but for me, it is hard to get a true evaluation of him given the state of the team. However, I actually feel pretty confident that out of Hoyer/Barkley/Shaw that we can have at least 2x competent QBs going into next season.

 

I still believe you have to draft a QB early, but I am starting to think that we don't necessarily have to do that with our first pick.

 

What do you think? Any surprising numbers for you?

 

 

[jason]

I'm not championing any of the three, but I think there is far more to weight into this sort of analysis than you've included. Just off the top of my head:

1) Drops

2) Miscommunication with WRs

3) Offensive gameplan

 

The third one is huge, because it's likely the coaches specifically tailored the gameplans for the backups. Whereas they knew Cutler could make the throws, they might not have been as confident with the other two. That could affect pass protection, drops, and routes, just to start.

 

Having said all that, if we are talking about just the eye test, Barkley looks like a keeper who can compete for the starting job, Hoyer looks like a backup who can fill in when needed, and Cutler looks too expensive for his production and mistakes. Moving forward, none of the three are the answer.

[AZ54]

Good analysis. There's quite a bit more to the data than what is shows on the surface. The eye test says our offense runs best with Barkley. He's a combination of Cutler, who can get points on the board, and Hoyer, who minimizes mistakes but can't get a the big plays. I'm still not sold on him as a starter, nor do I think I will be. I will say that with each game Barkley gains more confidence and we see him exploring more of the offense such as those deep throws over the middle.

 

I view some of this as a good thing. He's pushing the envelope to see what works and what doesn't. What will be key is to see how he learns from this. Both of the those deep middle INTs came off of some Packer DB interference but this is still part of what he has to learn to read when deciding where to go with the ball when there's a safety sitting over the top.

 

There are things he's shown that I was concerned about such as the ability to handle playing in bad weather. He's passed that test the last two weeks throwing with confidence in cold and rain.

 

Regarding the draft we still need a prospect and at this point it's going to take our first pick to get one. I view all of the 2nd Rd and later prospects as nothing more than future backups for the simple fact I haven't seen any demonstrate accuracy on deep passes. If a QB can't threaten a field beyond 20 yards then it's easy for a defense to matchup. Each of the top 3 QBs: Kizer, Trubisky, Watson have question marks but each has also shown the ability to be accurate all over the field, even if inconsistent at times. We can at least think that some coaching on mechanics and practice will improve the consistency.

 

For that reason IMO if we're serious about taking a QB with starting potential it needs to happen in the 1st Round. Doesn't mean we can't trade back to make it happen. I hear talk about Watson having a 2nd Rd grade but I just don't think he makes it to us in Rd 2. Bad QB draft also means if a team wants one of the top 3 you better go after them early. Right now I would stay where we are and see if we can get Jonathan Allen.

[Mongo3451]

Good analysis. There's quite a bit more to the data than what is shows on the surface. The eye test says our offense runs best with Barkley. He's a combination of Cutler, who can get points on the board, and Hoyer, who minimizes mistakes but can't get a the big plays. I'm still not sold on him as a starter, nor do I think I will be. I will say that with each game Barkley gains more confidence and we see him exploring more of the offense such as those deep throws over the middle.

 

I view some of this as a good thing. He's pushing the envelope to see what works and what doesn't. What will be key is to see how he learns from this. Both of the those deep middle INTs came off of some Packer DB interference but this is still part of what he has to learn to read when deciding where to go with the ball when there's a safety sitting over the top.

 

There are things he's shown that I was concerned about such as the ability to handle playing in bad weather. He's passed that test the last two weeks throwing with confidence in cold and rain.

 

Regarding the draft we still need a prospect and at this point it's going to take our first pick to get one. I view all of the 2nd Rd and later prospects as nothing more than future backups for the simple fact I haven't seen any demonstrate accuracy on deep passes. If a QB can't threaten a field beyond 20 yards then it's easy for a defense to matchup. Each of the top 3 QBs: Kizer, Trubisky, Watson have question marks but each has also shown the ability to be accurate all over the field, even if inconsistent at times. We can at least think that some coaching on mechanics and practice will improve the consistency.

 

For that reason IMO if we're serious about taking a QB with starting potential it needs to happen in the 1st Round. Doesn't mean we can't trade back to make it happen. I hear talk about Watson having a 2nd Rd grade but I just don't think he makes it to us in Rd 2. Bad QB draft also means if a team wants one of the top 3 you better go after them early. Right now I would stay where we are and see if we can get Jonathan Allen.

I like where you are thinking. I also believe we need QB in round one. My preference would be to trade down far enough to ensure we could get Trubinsky.

[AZ54]

I like where you are thinking. I also believe we need QB in round one. My preference would be to trade down far enough to ensure we could get Trubinsky.

 

Trade up? Might have to get to #1 overall because Cleveland must do something after passing on Wentz last year. They could grab Garnett and then wait until the 9th overall pick for the QB but if they do, then the entire league knows they are taking a QB there. That makes it more likely someone trades ahead of them to take their target. They might take something below market to drop back a few spots if they equally rate the top 3 QBs. At #4 or 5 overall they are going to get a shot at one of those 3 QBs.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Trade up? Might have to get to #1 overall because Cleveland must do something after passing on Wentz last year. They could grab Garnett and then wait until the 9th overall pick for the QB but if they do, then the entire league knows they are taking a QB there. That makes it more likely someone trades ahead of them to take their target. They might take something below market to drop back a few spots if they equally rate the top 3 QBs. At #4 or 5 overall they are going to get a shot at one of those 3 QBs.

I see Cleveland going BPA with their first pick and if no QB of their likings is available, then make the trade with New England for Jimmy Garapollo. They recently established a trade working partnership for Jamie Collins at OLB for a 4th rd pick. Pairing Garrett with Collins would give them a great set of olb.

[Mongo3451]

Trade up? Might have to get to #1 overall because Cleveland must do something after passing on Wentz last year. They could grab Garnett and then wait until the 9th overall pick for the QB but if they do, then the entire league knows they are taking a QB there. That makes it more likely someone trades ahead of them to take their target. They might take something below market to drop back a few spots if they equally rate the top 3 QBs. At #4 or 5 overall they are going to get a shot at one of those 3 QBs.

Rather not trade up. If we have to stay put, so be it. I'm in best case scenario mode right now.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Rather not trade up. If we have to stay put, so be it. I'm in best case scenario mode right now.

It is early, but I see Cleveland going OLB #1 (Garnett/Barnett, 49ers QB (hopefully Watson if Kelly is still coach), Jax is tough because they fired Bradley, so could be OT/WR (Ramzyck OT/ Mike William or John Ross WR)to help Bortles if they havent given up on him too.. Bears may be looking at Kizer/Trubisky, Humphrey CB, Adams S, or Allen DE, Barnett/Garrett OLB. Bears will definately be looking at some good choices to make a difference.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Just a quick comparison between Cutler and Barkley for this year.

 

Matt Barkley vs. Jay Cutler 2016

Player G Comp. % Y/A PYPG TD INT Rating

Barkley 5 58.6 7.2 232.6 6 7 75.2

Cutler 5 59.1 7.7 211.8 4 5 78.1

Per Pro Football Reference

 

 

[jason]

It is early, but I see Cleveland going OLB #1 (Garett/Barnett, 49ers QB (hopefully Watson if Kelly is still coach), Jax is tough because they fired Bradley, so could be OT/WR (Ramzyck OT/ Mike William or John Ross WR)to help Bortles if they havent given up on him too.. Bears may be looking at Kizer/Trubisky, Humphrey CB, Adams S, or Allen DE, Barnett/Garrett OLB. Bears will definately be looking at some good choices to make a difference.

 

If the Draft goes as you are proposing:

1. CLE - Garrett

2. SF - QB

3. JAX - OT/WR

 

The Bears would be stupid to pass on Allen. He'd make the entire defense better. He'd be BPA as well as need.

[AZ54]

If the Draft goes as you are proposing:

1. CLE - Garrett

2. SF - QB

3. JAX - OT/WR

 

The Bears would be stupid to pass on Allen. He'd make the entire defense better. He'd be BPA as well as need.

 

 

Allen, Goldman, Hicks makes our defensive front one of the best in the NFL even when we go into a 4-man front. Have to take him if he's there.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

If the Draft goes as you are proposing:

1. CLE - Garrett

2. SF - QB

3. JAX - OT/WR

 

The Bears would be stupid to pass on Allen. He'd make the entire defense better. He'd be BPA as well as need.

I agree, the Bears should take him on bpa status alone. It is not the greatest need but it would make the defensive front 7 scary to face and how the 85 team was made. It would also help the dbacks because the ball would have to come out quicker. I am not against it, but playing devils advocate here, I start to think of the Jets. As long as the Bears can still draft a worthy QB, it can work out. Maybe we luck into the Raiders situation when they got Mack and Carr. Our Dbacks are young except for Porter and some (Hall/Bush) haven't got much of a chance yet to grow.