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NFL Scouts Confuse Me!


lemonej

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Been talking with friends lately about what I think is a very confusing approach to QB evaluation by NFL scouts.

Much emphasis is placed on taking snaps under center and playing in a pro-style offense. Then these prospect get to the NFL and are running read option up tempo shotgun formation offensive plays, which are staples in college offenses as well as multiple WRs and 1 back or empty backfield formations. So what's the big deal about QB prospects being under center? The majority of the center prospects have been making that long snap most of their college careers, so they too should be under the same scrutiny since they haven't had a QB's hands under their butt.

 

I think the most important thing to evaluate is the mechanics( arm angle, footwork and poise in the pocket) and throwing ability( arm strength, accuracy and touch).

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Been talking with friends lately about what I think is a very confusing approach to QB evaluation by NFL scouts.

Much emphasis is placed on taking snaps under center and playing in a pro-style offense. Then these prospect get to the NFL and are running read option up tempo shotgun formation offensive plays, which are staples in college offenses as well as multiple WRs and 1 back or empty backfield formations. So what's the big deal about QB prospects being under center? The majority of the center prospects have been making that long snap most of their college careers, so they too should be under the same scrutiny since they haven't had a QB's hands under their butt.

 

I think the most important thing to evaluate is the mechanics( arm angle, footwork and poise in the pocket) and throwing ability( arm strength, accuracy and touch).

Its just one of many things they look at, it is not at the top of the list for evaluating just on a list of things to look at.

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Isn't that at the top of the list of things that is mentioned when you watch draft shows etc?

It is two different processes. QBs that typically are in shotgun have less to process. They get the snap and are scanning the field, rarely moving, usually keying in on one defender to dictate where to throw or keep the ball and run. QBs under center take the snap, drop back 3-5-7 steps, while keying in on the coverage and keeping proper footwork. Shotgun just took steps out or simplified the process and it takes time to learn. Jay would make a good shot gun QB because his footwork is terrible and he sees only half the field anyways and rarely progresses through his options. He's mentally too slow imo or has been beaten so much he don't rely on taking all the steps.

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They look at 6 things mostly.

 

Arm talent

Athleticism

Pocket presence

Poise

Intelligence

Clutch factor

 

This isn't exact but very close

 

For me at the top is accuracy at all levels of the field. If you can't consistently threaten a defense deep downfield you'll never be top starter in the NFL. Next is ability to read a defense. As Ashkum stated, the QBs coming out of the 1-read offenses don't learn anything about scanning the field. Worse is that all these coaches now make them turn around and look back at the sideline for the play adjustments which again, takes eyes off what the defense is doing. Those guys have a lot steeper learning curve when they get to the NFL.

 

Even though he was in a 1 read offense I liked Mariota because when he was on the move he still kept his eyes downfield, and often made accurate passes on the move. He was reading the defense as the play broke down (better than Cutler does) so I felt he'd be able to pick up that aspect pre-snap over time. Lucky guess on my part. The scouts and coaches get to meet these guys and work them out so they should have a big leg up on this analysis yet they get it wrong in the first round year after year. I'd say that's in part because they place more emphasis on the physical attributes assuming the coaches can get the mental aspect corrected. Right now IMO this is the biggest knock on Kizer, among several but he also has some redeeming traits in how he handles pressure in his face. Trubisky on the other hand seems to be able to handle reading the defense as plays break down. Both are young and inexperienced so good luck figuring out where they are on their learning curve.

 

Then I try to remember all the failed QB projects we've had in Chicago. What killed Grossman was wilting under pressure, couldn't read the defense well enough didn't know where to go with the ball when the blitz came. We came to realize later he didn't have the study habits and work ethic needed to succeed. Cutler fails under pressure too but in a slightly different way as he thinks he can still make that big play, and when he screws up he thinks he needs to come back and make a bigger play to make up for it. Any signs of those killer traits?

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