adam Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 After some of the initial signings came in, it was clear that the Bears had a hard stance on overpaying and were not going to budge on value, regardless of the player or need. I assumed we would pay whatever it took to bring in some of the top FA's, but after each signing, it was clear what that the Bears were not going to give out long term deals that would hurt the club in the long-term. We are currently in full rebuild mode. Any free agent now is just a gap filler as we replenish through the draft, but we have to understand we are still 2-3 years away from competing realistically. I think we will always be competitive, but I am not expecting much more than a 5-win season this year at best. To win more, Glennon would have to live up to his full potential, White would need to have a breakout season, and everyone would need to stay healthy. All huge if's. QB - Mike Glennon - It might seem like an overpay, but Glennon's contract amounts to a one-year (kick the tires) deal. His average annual salary puts him in the bottom 1/3 of the league for starters. We paid more for him than Hoyer, but the Bears are paying for the potential upside. Glennon vs Cutler/Hoyer/Barkley - Glennon might have more excuses than Cutler for bad O-Line, Coaches/Coordinators, and skill position players. In his rookie year, the leading rusher was Bobby Rainey, and after Vincent Jackson, the next best WR was Tiquan Underwood, yes Tiquan. He was sacked 40 times in 13 games, yet still put up 19 TDs and only 9 INTs with a respectable 83.9 QB Rating. I think he has more upside than Hoyer and Barkley, and a higher floor than all of them. He has only had 3 lifetime starts with a QB Rating below 70 (bad games), and has only thrown 2 INTs or more in a game 3 times (all 2 INTs) as well. So if you do a quick INT and QB Rating comparison, by percentage, Cutler threw 2 INTs or more in 27% of his starts (crazy) and had a QB Rating 70 or lower in 24% of his starts. So essentially, you were getting a bad game out of him every 4th game. Bad Jay. Now on the flip side, you were getting Good Jay (QB Rating over 90) 47% of the time. For Hoyer, 22% of his starts were with a QB Rating below 70 (slightly better than Cutler), and only 10% of his games with 2 INTs or more (way better), but only had 39% of his starts with a QB rating over 90. So just like the consensus opinion was, Cutler was more volatile, he had a bigger upside and bigger downside than Hoyer. Glennon comes in with a smaller sample size, but has only had 14% of his games with a QB Rating below 70 or 2 or more INTs, and 33% of his games above 90. So higher floor, lower ceiling. As Jordan said, the floor is the ceiling. We probably still draft and develop one. QB Position - Even, with consistency and potential S - Quintin Demps - He immediately becomes the best Safety on the team compared to Amos, HJQ, Bush, Houston-Carson, but the jury is still out on all of them as they are young and inexperienced (all 23). I still think we draft one high. At this point, the Safety position is better than last year, even if just marginally. Now I almost see CB as a bigger need. S Position - slight upgrade TE - Dion Sims - 6'4", 260+, this is a big dude. He is only going to catch 2-3 balls a game, and will mostly be a blocking TE, but if anyone remembers, Martellus Bennett was only a blocking TE before breaking out with the Giants and Bears. He will compliment Zach Miller and Daniel Brown nicely. Not a huge signing, but we should see some improvement in the run game and even in pass pro with Sims. With the deep TE class, I can see the Bears still drafting a TE. TE Position - slight upgrade WR - Markus Wheaton - This seems to be a low risk signing, with high potential. Coming out of the draft, his comp was Antonio Brown. Here are his numbers: 4.45 40, 20 reps on bench. 4.02 20yd shuttle, 11.16 60yd shuttle, 37in vert, 120in broad. His numbers are basically the same as Zay Jones, except Wheaton did 5 more on bench and Jones beat him on the broad jump. With the loss of Alshon though, we are clearly worse right now at WR. If we don't get someone like Pryor or Wright, drafting a WR high is going to have to be a priority. WR Position - downgrade, but more potential to stretch the field CB - Nothing done yet, but still a need OT - Nothing done yet, but still a need TLDR Summary: Not what anyone expected, addressing some need areas, but still holes to fill before the draft Day 1 - Initial Grade: (C-), lower than expectations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 You do some very good research! Nice job on the QB comps. I think the TE signing is a bigger upgrade that we realize. Here's some draft profiles on Sims: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2013/profiles/dion-sims?id=2540200 http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1700507/dion-sims We now have a 265lb TE who can run a 4.7 forty with a 35in vertical leap. He's not the most nimble guy (3-cone 7.36) but he's far more athletic than I first thought for a "blocking TE". This is a good combination of skills among him and Miller/Brown. Draft a TE if we choose but I think we can go into the season with these 3 players. CB is still a big question mark but this is the draft where you don't have to overpay FA to get help. WR is also strong in the draft but I'd love to add Pryor's size/speed combination to the mix with Glennon's strong arm. I know he's not a #1 WR but having three solid #2 WRs on the field (White, Meredith, Pryor) can be very productive. That combination puts DBs in a quandary too. I would love to see Hankins signed to strengthen the Dline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dawhizz Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 My quick thoughts (and I'm not usually a negative poster): - Glennon - As I've written elsewhere, I'm OK with the Glennon signing given that he's the only guy available that could work out to be a legit starting QB, but it's hard for me to get past the fact that, by all indications, the Bears paid at least $4 million more than the next highest bidder. It sounds like the deal is pretty well structured as far as getting out of the deal after a year or two, so I guess that helps. Still doesn't change your need for a QB in the draft. - Demps - An upgrade just because our safeties are so bad, but I'm not super excited about this. We seem to be paying for a career year by an older player (he had 6 ints last year but just 1 the previous year). Why not give the same deal to DJ Swearinger, who is much younger and may be coming into his own? I get the need for leadership, but we have Trevathan as a leader of the defense. Plus, why aren't any of these guys we drafted developing into leaders if we feel the need to bring one in? I hope it's not Rolle 2.0, but it looks like it from here. Still doesn't change your need for S in the draft. - Wheaton - This is the kind of guy I have wanted us to get in recent years, but it's mitigated by the loss of Jeffery and, unless we somehow get Pryor, an overall step back at WR. You have to put your new QB in a position to succeed, and it's hard for me to believe that a starting three of Meredith, White, Wheaton does that (notwithstanding the inability of two of those guys to stay healthy). Still doesn't change your need for WR in the draft (and it has undoubtedly increased overall). - Sims - Why are we paying $6 million a year for a blocking TE ahead of the best TE draft in a long time? Is he worth paying $6 million a year over what you could get in this draft in the fourth/fifth round? I understand that he has some upside, but we now have three mediocre TEs in Miller, Sims, and Brown. So (say it with me) this still doesn't change your need for TE in the draft. So, we've made four signings, none of which crosses off a position from what you need going into the draft. You lost out on the RT you targeted and all the top flight CBs, so you still have a big hole at CB, so that's still a draft need and I don't think anyone you could get left in FA changes that. When your first day of Free Agency solves no problems, creates new ones, doesn't shift your draft needs at all, and doesn't demonstrate a clear direction for the franchise, you get an F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted March 10, 2017 Report Share Posted March 10, 2017 Good overall assessment. However, there should be some downgrade for swinging and missing yet again on pick ups. We could have filled more gaps and did not. The hope should be you land at least 1 top need at DB, and we missed on all 3. After some of the initial signings came in, it was clear that the Bears had a hard stance on overpaying and were not going to budge on value, regardless of the player or need. I assumed we would pay whatever it took to bring in some of the top FA's, but after each signing, it was clear what that the Bears were not going to give out long term deals that would hurt the club in the long-term. We are currently in full rebuild mode. Any free agent now is just a gap filler as we replenish through the draft, but we have to understand we are still 2-3 years away from competing realistically. I think we will always be competitive, but I am not expecting much more than a 5-win season this year at best. To win more, Glennon would have to live up to his full potential, White would need to have a breakout season, and everyone would need to stay healthy. All huge if's. QB - Mike Glennon - It might seem like an overpay, but Glennon's contract amounts to a one-year (kick the tires) deal. His average annual salary puts him in the bottom 1/3 of the league for starters. We paid more for him than Hoyer, but the Bears are paying for the potential upside. Glennon vs Cutler/Hoyer/Barkley - Glennon might have more excuses than Cutler for bad O-Line, Coaches/Coordinators, and skill position players. In his rookie year, the leading rusher was Bobby Rainey, and after Vincent Jackson, the next best WR was Tiquan Underwood, yes Tiquan. He was sacked 40 times in 13 games, yet still put up 19 TDs and only 9 INTs with a respectable 83.9 QB Rating. I think he has more upside than Hoyer and Barkley, and a higher floor than all of them. He has only had 3 lifetime starts with a QB Rating below 70 (bad games), and has only thrown 2 INTs or more in a game 3 times (all 2 INTs) as well. So if you do a quick INT and QB Rating comparison, by percentage, Cutler threw 2 INTs or more in 27% of his starts (crazy) and had a QB Rating 70 or lower in 24% of his starts. So essentially, you were getting a bad game out of him every 4th game. Bad Jay. Now on the flip side, you were getting Good Jay (QB Rating over 90) 47% of the time. For Hoyer, 22% of his starts were with a QB Rating below 70 (slightly better than Cutler), and only 10% of his games with 2 INTs or more (way better), but only had 39% of his starts with a QB rating over 90. So just like the consensus opinion was, Cutler was more volatile, he had a bigger upside and bigger downside than Hoyer. Glennon comes in with a smaller sample size, but has only had 14% of his games with a QB Rating below 70 or 2 or more INTs, and 33% of his games above 90. So higher floor, lower ceiling. As Jordan said, the floor is the ceiling. We probably still draft and develop one. QB Position - Even, with consistency and potential S - Quintin Demps - He immediately becomes the best Safety on the team compared to Amos, HJQ, Bush, Houston-Carson, but the jury is still out on all of them as they are young and inexperienced (all 23). I still think we draft one high. At this point, the Safety position is better than last year, even if just marginally. Now I almost see CB as a bigger need. S Position - slight upgrade TE - Dion Sims - 6'4", 260+, this is a big dude. He is only going to catch 2-3 balls a game, and will mostly be a blocking TE, but if anyone remembers, Martellus Bennett was only a blocking TE before breaking out with the Giants and Bears. He will compliment Zach Miller and Daniel Brown nicely. Not a huge signing, but we should see some improvement in the run game and even in pass pro with Sims. With the deep TE class, I can see the Bears still drafting a TE. TE Position - slight upgrade WR - Markus Wheaton - This seems to be a low risk signing, with high potential. Coming out of the draft, his comp was Antonio Brown. Here are his numbers: 4.45 40, 20 reps on bench. 4.02 20yd shuttle, 11.16 60yd shuttle, 37in vert, 120in broad. His numbers are basically the same as Zay Jones, except Wheaton did 5 more on bench and Jones beat him on the broad jump. With the loss of Alshon though, we are clearly worse right now at WR. If we don't get someone like Pryor or Wright, drafting a WR high is going to have to be a priority. WR Position - downgrade, but more potential to stretch the field CB - Nothing done yet, but still a need OT - Nothing done yet, but still a need TLDR Summary: Not what anyone expected, addressing some need areas, but still holes to fill before the draft Day 1 - Initial Grade: (C-), lower than expectations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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