Bears Rumor 2 weeks out

[AZ54]

It seems rumors are now building that we're likely taking a DB at #3. That's an exceedingly easy rumor to throw out there given the talented options in Adams, Hooker, and Lattimore match very well with the Bears needs. Many draftniks in the media have had us taking Lattimore for the last couple weeks. I'd say Adams is 2nd most frequent selection but that's still close to number of folks who still have us drafting Jonathan Allen.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2703486...-draft-and-more

 

Based on what I recall here's the history of the most popular players for our pick in order of most popular...

 

January: Jabril Peppers/Allen

February: Allen, Trubisky, Solomon Thomas starts showing up

Mar: Jonathan Allen, Thomas, and Adams creeps into the picture

Early Apr: Adams/Thomas/Allen

Mid Apr: Lattimore/Adams/Allen/with a little Trubisky thrown in for good measure and by now Thomas is likely gone at #2 overall.

 

The one constant that's in every recent draft is the QBs moving up late in the process. After seeing them all dissed as no better than 2nd Rd prospects we now hear that as many as 4 (Trubisky, Watson, Mahomes, Kizer/Webb) and possibly all 5 could be taken in the 1st Rd. Not one of them, except perhaps Trubisky, has a legit 1st Rd grade. Watson has legit 1st Rd intangibles pushing up his lack of physical arm talent.

[adam]

Using the Walterfootball Mock Database, and only using the most recent mocks (04APR-current), here is the breakdown for the #3 pick (62 mocks):

 

1. J. Allen - 38.7%

2. J. Adams - 29.0%

3. M. Lattimore - 17.7%

4. S. Thomas - 8.1%

5. M. Hooker - 4.8%

6. M. Garrett - 1.6%

 

49.6% - DB

48.4% - DL

100% - Defense

 

Trubisky was only in the top 3 of those same drafts 4 times, and Watson once (out of 62 mocks).

 

http://walterfootball.com/draftdata.php

[Stinger226]

Using the Walterfootball Mock Database, and only using the most recent mocks (04APR-current), here is the breakdown for the #3 pick (62 mocks):

 

1. J. Allen - 38.7%

2. J. Adams - 29.0%

3. M. Lattimore - 17.7%

4. S. Thomas - 8.1%

5. M. Hooker - 4.8%

6. M. Garrett - 1.6%

 

49.6% - DB

48.4% - DL

100% - Defense

 

Trubisky was only in the top 3 of those same drafts 4 times, and Watson once (out of 62 mocks).

 

http://walterfootball.com/draftdata.php

I think we will not draft a QB at 3 because Pace says he will take the BPA at that spot and no QB has that value.

I thiink Allen is still one of the top 5 players in this draft, and even though he has some arthritis in his shoulders, it will not affect him until later in his life.

I also have changed my mind on Adams who I originally wanted, he is a very good player and leader but as many scouts have stated , he is not a special player.

Hooker is a special player and if the medical reports are favorable, would think they consider him.

Also Lattimore is a high end CB that if his medicals pan out would be worthy of that pick.

[jason]

To me it's Allen still at #1. That makes the most sense.

 

Second is Hooker, depending on health. He's the true FS.

 

Third is Adams.

 

I really don't want Lattimore at 3.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-bears/lo...y-get-their-guy

 

I'd say one way or another we still end up with a QB in round one. We either trade down, take one at 3, trade back into the first.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-bears/lo...y-get-their-guy

 

I'd say one way or another we still end up with a QB in round one. We either trade down, take one at 3, trade back into the first.

 

I like this Mullin guy. Also appears this Gabriel cat has similar thinking (below).

 

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/04/13/mor...back-nfl-draft/

 

Still trying to figure out two things; why is Trubisky rated as high as he is? And about next years QB class, where are these hidden gem(s) I keep hearing about? Really curious. Anyone???

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I like this Mullin guy. Also appears this Gabriel cat has similar thinking (below).

 

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/04/13/mor...back-nfl-draft/

 

Still trying to figure out two things; why is Trubisky rated as high as he is? And about next years QB class, where are these hidden gem(s) I keep hearing about? Really curious. Anyone???

Watson is picking up steam from the links I am seeing. The link I posted doesn't seem to pull up as I hoped, but was suggesting Watson also. Less than 2 weeks and we will find out.

[Stinger226]

I like this Mullin guy. Also appears this Gabriel cat has similar thinking (below).

 

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/04/13/mor...back-nfl-draft/

 

Still trying to figure out two things; why is Trubisky rated as high as he is? And about next years QB class, where are these hidden gem(s) I keep hearing about? Really curious. Anyone???

He is not rated high, its just people trying to make something out of nothing. They will be over drafted, not because of value but because their QBs.

[dawhizz]

I like this Mullin guy. Also appears this Gabriel cat has similar thinking (below).

 

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/04/13/mor...back-nfl-draft/

 

Still trying to figure out two things; why is Trubisky rated as high as he is? And about next years QB class, where are these hidden gem(s) I keep hearing about? Really curious. Anyone???

 

For why Trubisky is rated so high, it's a short sample size with one year starting, but he showed everything you want to see in the one year - arm strength, mobility, accuracy, etc. You'd love to see him do it again, obviously, but he looked great this year.

 

The more I watch, the guy I'm having a hard time geting on board with, weirdly, is Watson. Obviously the record is great and he had some great comebacks against really good teams, but you do you realize he had 30 interceptions the last two years and 17 just last year. By comparison, last year Trubisky had 6, Kizer had 9, Mahomes had 10, and Peterman had 7. Hell, even Kaaya, who everyone hates now, only had 7. And when I watch the games, Watson could have more than he has. A lot of his completions seem to be slants, screens, or throwing the ball up to Mike Williams. I would be less than thrilled taking him at #3 and would be livid if we traded up to #2 to take him.

 

As for 2018, I'm not sure what you mean by "hidden gems", but the top QBs are projected to be Sam Darnold from USC, Mason Rudolph from Oklahoma State, Josh Allen from Wyoming, Luke Falk from Washington State, and Josh Rosen from UCLA.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

For why Trubisky is rated so high, it's a short sample size with one year starting, but he showed everything you want to see in the one year - arm strength, mobility, accuracy, etc. You'd love to see him do it again, obviously, but he looked great this year.

 

The more I watch, the guy I'm having a hard time geting on board with, weirdly, is Watson. Obviously the record is great and he had some great comebacks against really good teams, but you do you realize he had 30 interceptions the last two years and 17 just last year. By comparison, last year Trubisky had 6, Kizer had 9, Mahomes had 10, and Peterman had 7. Hell, even Kaaya, who everyone hates now, only had 7. And when I watch the games, Watson could have more than he has. A lot of his completions seem to be slants, screens, or throwing the ball up to Mike Williams. I would be less than thrilled taking him at #3 and would be livid if we traded up to #2 to take him.you

 

As for 2018, I'm not sure what you mean by "hidden gems", but the top QBs are projected to be Sam Darnold from USC, Mason Rudolph from Oklahoma State, Josh Allen from Wyoming, Luke Falk from Washington State, and Josh Rosen from UCLA.

I was a big fan of Luke Falk, thought he has Derek Carr ability. Rosen and Darnold will be the big projections next draft. Depends on how Rosen does recovering from injury.

 

As for next draft, it depends on how the Bears finish. I don't imagine another 3-13 season and more middle of the draft like at 8-8. Out of reach on the top two, but can take the Falk/Rudolph/Allen I'd imagine. With a deep QB class, that may drop 4-5 other top players down to us and QB needy teams may trade up. Pace will have to decide if Watson or whoever will be equal to next class and figure in the extra year of NFL experience taking one now does. I think 8-8 record happens whether they take a defensive stud or QB this season.

[Stinger226]

I was a big fan of Luke Falk, thought he has Derek Carr ability. Rosen and Darnold will be the big projections next draft. Depends on how Rosen does recovering from injury.

 

As for next draft, it depends on how the Bears finish. I don't imagine another 3-13 season and more middle of the draft like at 8-8. Out of reach on the top two, but can take the Falk/Rudolph/Allen I'd imagine. With a deep QB class, that may drop 4-5 other top players down to us and QB needy teams may trade up. Pace will have to decide if Watson or whoever will be equal to next class and figure in the extra year of NFL experience taking one now does. I think 8-8 record happens whether they take a defensive stud or QB this season.

 

Another thing to consider is A.J. McCarron, nad Jimmy G. will also be available, the cupboard is not bare.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

For why Trubisky is rated so high, it's a short sample size with one year starting, but he showed everything you want to see in the one year - arm strength, mobility, accuracy, etc. You'd love to see him do it again, obviously, but he looked great this year.

 

The more I watch, the guy I'm having a hard time geting on board with, weirdly, is Watson. Obviously the record is great and he had some great comebacks against really good teams, but you do you realize he had 30 interceptions the last two years and 17 just last year. By comparison, last year Trubisky had 6, Kizer had 9, Mahomes had 10, and Peterman had 7. Hell, even Kaaya, who everyone hates now, only had 7. And when I watch the games, Watson could have more than he has. A lot of his completions seem to be slants, screens, or throwing the ball up to Mike Williams. I would be less than thrilled taking him at #3 and would be livid if we traded up to #2 to take him.

 

As for 2018, I'm not sure what you mean by "hidden gems", but the top QBs are projected to be Sam Darnold from USC, Mason Rudolph from Oklahoma State, Josh Allen from Wyoming, Luke Falk from Washington State, and Josh Rosen from UCLA.

 

With regards to Watson and his TO rate; you forgot to mention his 41 TDs last year and 35 the year before. Along with over 4,000 yds each year. I don't know if you can dink and dunk your way to 4000 yards through screens and slants but ok. By the way, Matt Ryan threw 19 INTs to 31 TDs his senior year at BC. I might also add that Jay Cutler threw 9 INTs to his 21 TDs his senior year, so there is that.

 

Watson has to be measured more for than just his QB performance (in fact they all should be). He has intelligence and proven leadership on the field (besides being a stand up guy). All elements our very young team needs. Although personally not a fan I see some similarities to Watson and Jaimes Winston who was known to TO the ball with great frequency but somehow managed to still win despite it. Some would say he's cobbling together a pretty good career in TB so far.

 

Once again those QBs that could be eligible for the draft are next year. Where will we be drafting next year and how many of them could the Bears actually have a shot at? How many of them; like Darnold a Freshman, will be able to sustain their play? How many of them potentially could become injured? Will these guys be playing in and winning any national championships in the next year or two?

 

Bottom line, my guess is the team is going to choose the player they best fits their needs for this year. Will it be a DLman, DB or QB? Still anyone's guess, but I don't think we can discount any top performing player of those positions.

 

[AZ54]

With regards to Watson and his TO rate; you forgot to mention his 41 TDs last year and 35 the year before. Along with over 4,000 yds each year. I don't know if you can dink and dunk your way to 4000 yards through screens and slants but ok. By the way, Matt Ryan threw 19 INTs to 31 TDs his senior year at BC. I might also add that Jay Cutler threw 9 INTs to his 21 TDs his senior year, so there is that.

 

Watson has to be measured more for than just his QB performance (in fact they all should be). He has intelligence and proven leadership on the field (besides being a stand up guy). All elements our very young team needs. Although personally not a fan I see some similarities to Watson and Jaimes Winston who was known to TO the ball with great frequency but somehow managed to still win despite it. Some would say he's cobbling together a pretty good career in TB so far.

 

Once again those QBs that could be eligible for the draft are next year. Where will we be drafting next year and how many of them could the Bears actually have a shot at? How many of them; like Darnold a Freshman, will be able to sustain their play? How many of them potentially could become injured? Will these guys be playing in and winning any national championships in the next year or two?

 

Bottom line, my guess is the team is going to choose the player they best fits their needs for this year. Will it be a DLman, DB or QB? Still anyone's guess, but I don't think we can discount any top performing player of those positions.

 

I love all the good things you mention about Watson but we can't ignore the limitations he has throwing the football. In the right scheme he'll be ok. Pushing the ball down the field ain't his thing. There's subtle things that I've read where he isn't very accurate throwing to his left. NFL teams and players figure these things out and make you go where you don't want to go. I see him ending up better than a journeyman like Hoyer but never quite the guy you really want at QB, like Alex Smith. How early do you draft that type of QB?

 

The two QBs the most likely (not guaranteed) to reach their potential IMO are Trubisky and Kizer, with Kizer less so. Mahomes is Jay Cutler with a smile. Webb is too inaccurate for me and Kaaya too nervous in the pocket. I think both end up career #2s who, on a good team, can win half the games when the starter is injured.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I love all the good things you mention about Watson but we can't ignore the limitations he has throwing the football. In the right scheme he'll be ok. Pushing the ball down the field ain't his thing. There's subtle things that I've read where he isn't very accurate throwing to his left. NFL teams and players figure these things out and make you go where you don't want to go. I see him ending up better than a journeyman like Hoyer but never quite the guy you really want at QB, like Alex Smith. How early do you draft that type of QB?

 

The two QBs the most likely (not guaranteed) to reach their potential IMO are Trubisky and Kizer, with Kizer less so. Mahomes is Jay Cutler with a smile. Webb is too inaccurate for me and Kaaya too nervous in the pocket. I think both end up career #2s who, on a good team, can win half the games when the starter is injured.

 

I'd actually be ok with Kizer too, if hard pressed. As I've stated before I just have a 'thing' against us drafting a QB from ND.

 

I still don't get Trubisky. He's got such a small sample size that I'm not sure how anyone can comfortably claim 'he's the one'. Like how you say Watson has 'tendancies' (speculative) due to his longer playing career you can't say that as much with a guy who only has 13 games as a starter. And he played for NC. And I keep seeing although on the NC team for 4 years couldn't beat out former starter Marquisse Williams (who?). I just don't know. Bucky Brooks made a comparison of Trubisky that really made me cringe. That being to a one Marc Sanchez (one year starter in college that didn't translate to the NFL). Ewww...

[adam]

I can't see a QB at #3, and it would be crazy to move from #3 to 2 or 1 to take anyone other than Garrett.

 

Most of the rumors are to force other teams to make moves. I think at this point we are positioning to move down.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I can't see a QB at #3, and it would be crazy to move from #3 to 2 or 1 to take anyone other than Garrett.

 

Most of the rumors are to force other teams to make moves. I think at this point we are positioning to move down.

I was shocked to see the rumor about moving up to pick 2. I think 4 QBs will go round, they each have aspects of their game that is interesting and how they sort out will make Thursday a late night. If the Bears do not trade down or select one at 3, I would hold tight for a move back into the first. Pace has made offers the past two years, I do not see him striking out 3 years in a row on not addressing the position with high upside.

[adam]

I was shocked to see the rumor about moving up to pick 2. I think 4 QBs will go round, they each have aspects of their game that is interesting and how they sort out will make Thursday a late night. If the Bears do not trade down or select one at 3, I would hold tight for a move back into the first. Pace has made offers the past two years, I do not see him striking out 3 years in a row on not addressing the position with high upside.

Now I can see us moving back into the back end of the first to get a QB and the extra year on the contract for sure.

 

A trade with Cleveland would be awesome. Give them #3 for #12, #33, #65, and #108. With all their extra picks, they would still pick in the 2nd and 4th rounds and get two of the top 3 picks. Then we can use #36 with #108 to move back into the back end of the 1st and still have the first pick in the 2nd. 3 picks in the top 33 would be sweet.

 

[AZ54]

Now I can see us moving back into the back end of the first to get a QB and the extra year on the contract for sure.

 

A trade with Cleveland would be awesome. Give them #3 for #12, #33, #65, and #108. With all their extra picks, they would still pick in the 2nd and 4th rounds and get two of the top 3 picks. Then we can use #36 with #108 to move back into the back end of the 1st and still have the first pick in the 2nd. 3 picks in the top 33 would be sweet.

 

This is my hope as well. Can Pace make Cleveland nervous enough to think their QB will be gone? We haven't done as much work on Trubisky as we have with Watson and Kizer, but we've done a ton of work on QBs. This is an excellent article detailing many of the concerns with the draft QBs.

 

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/04/12/2017-dr...-best-nfl-teams

 

[Stinger226]

This is my hope as well. Can Pace make Cleveland nervous enough to think their QB will be gone? We haven't done as much work on Trubisky as we have with Watson and Kizer, but we've done a ton of work on QBs. This is an excellent article detailing many of the concerns with the draft QBs.

 

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/04/12/2017-dr...-best-nfl-teams

That is the best article I have seen on QBs. It shows me all the QBs are big question marks, Trubisky seems to have the most upside, but doesnt sound worthy of a high pick. If Kirk Cousins was in this draft would you view him as the 3rd overall pick? In his draft,I think he was a 4th rounder.

All of this tells me, there is to much risk with any of them to view as worth 3.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

That is the best article I have seen on QBs. It shows me all the QBs are big question marks, Trubisky seems to have the most upside, but doesnt sound worthy of a high pick. If Kirk Cousins was in this draft would you view him as the 3rd overall pick? In his draft,I think he was a 4th rounder.

All of this tells me, there is to much risk with any of them to view as worth 3.

 

Perfect example of how much the "experts" know. That same draft that Cousins went 4th round was the same one RGIII went first.

 

Although comparisons to both Russel Wilson and Dak Prescott (Watson) isn't too shabby.

[Stinger226]

Perfect example of how much the "experts" know. That same draft that Cousins went 4th round was the same one RGIII went first.

 

Although comparisons to both Russel Wilson and Dak Prescott (Watson) isn't too shabby.

Of course, professional scouts are 50% on first round prospects, but some are smarter than others and I lean with the group that states no QB is good enough to take top 15. As later in the back of the first and second round is where you take risky QBs.

[BearFan2000]

Now I can see us moving back into the back end of the first to get a QB and the extra year on the contract for sure.

 

A trade with Cleveland would be awesome. Give them #3 for #12, #33, #65, and #108. With all their extra picks, they would still pick in the 2nd and 4th rounds and get two of the top 3 picks. Then we can use #36 with #108 to move back into the back end of the 1st and still have the first pick in the 2nd. 3 picks in the top 33 would be sweet.

 

That would be a nice scenario. Aside from something like this I'd prefer we stay at 3 take a defensive stud, trade back into the back half of round one and take a QB if we are set on taking a Watson, Trubisky, Keizer, etc. I don't want the #3 pick used on a QB not worthy of that pick just because he's a QB. I seriously doubt Pace will take a QB at 3 if we stay at #3. You don't throw away the value of taking a stud defensive player there to reach on a QB who has question marks and they all do.