Gil Brandt's Top 150

[AZ54]

He's been around the NFL draft for 57 years and has one heck of a draft database.

 

"I can now look at my database and pull the confirmed short-shuttle or three-cone time of the 947th-ranked prospect instantaneously ... and in a matter of seconds have on my computer screen in front of me all the third-down-and-short run plays he was involved in at his Div. III school."

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000080...-2017-nfl-draft

 

 

I saw a few rankings that stand out from some of the mainstream:

 

#8 overall Trubisky If he's ranked that high on the Bears board we should just draft him.

 

------------------------------

One thing often overlooked about Trubisky is how well he played in 2015:

 

"in 2015, he played well, completing 40 of 47 passes for 555 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions."

 

I know there's a lot of talk about why, when he was a sophomore, he didn't beat out the senior on that roster but that's a pretty impressive performance in a part time role. More here:

 

http://www.goheels.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=206278361

Came off the bench after Marquise Williams lost his helmet and completed passes against NC State and Clemson • The pass against the Wolfpack was a first-quarter touchdown, while the completion against the Tigers picked up a first down on third and long • Completed 5 of 5 pass attempts for 84 yards and scored his third rushing touchdown of the year in the win over Miami • Completed all five pass attempts for 43 yards and tallied his third rushing touchdown of the year in the win over Duke

-----------------------------

 

Back to Gil Brandt's rankings:

 

Watson is right behind Trubisky at #9 overall, Mahomes at #18.

 

Ross is his top WR at #10 overall but I doubt that will hold up on draft day. He's got Williams way back at #23 and Davis near the end of the 1st Rd #31.

 

Marlon Humphrey is #43.

 

I like all the 2nd Rd Safeties but maybe not in his order: Marcus Williams, Josh Jones, Maye, Evans, and Baker. None are named Obi who sits back at #68 and the 3rd Rd seems appropriate for his production. I certainly hope Obi goes much earlier as it might leave a safety there for us in the 3rd Rd if we haven't already taken one.

 

OT Antonio Garcia is way down the list at #130. There's talk that he'll go in the 2nd Rd.

 

[jason]

What a confusing year. If Brandt has things slotted correctly, then I want the following:

1. Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama

2. Corey Davis, WR, W. Michigan

3. Obi Melifonwu, S, UConn.

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Going off of Gil's list:

 

1: Watson/Trubisky QB - With Glennon on a one year see what we get deal, the Bears draft their future franchise QB. Sanchez will be 3rd on the depth chart allowing the rookie snaps as 2nd string to start.

 

2: Evan Engram TE - Dynamic playmaking TE that will create many mismatches and fit a Deshaun Watson attack offense.

 

3: Sidney Jones CB - He may not get to play this season, but can shut down one side of the field from 2018 and after.

 

4: Derek Rivers OLB - High motor that can develop into a fierce pass rusher.

 

4: Avery Gennesy OT - Good fit for a Zone Blocking scheme offense and good potential to play LT>

 

 

 

 

 

[jason]

Going off of Gil's list:

 

1: Watson/Trubisky QB - With Glennon on a one year see what we get deal, the Bears draft their future franchise QB. Sanchez will be 3rd on the depth chart allowing the rookie snaps as 2nd string to start.

2: Evan Engram TE - Dynamic playmaking TE that will create many mismatches and fit a Deshaun Watson attack offense.

3: Sidney Jones CB - He may not get to play this season, but can shut down one side of the field from 2018 and after.

4: Derek Rivers OLB - High motor that can develop into a fierce pass rusher.

4: Avery Gennesy OT - Good fit for a Zone Blocking scheme offense and good potential to play LT>

 

I actually kind of like that draft (assuming it's Watson and not Trubisky), but I think that draft gets Fox fired. There's still a hole at DE with Unrein, still a hole at FS with whoever, and that means the defense won't really improve much unless someone like Bullard steps up. Meanwhile, the RD1 QB sits for at least half the season behind Glennon (while Engram splits time with two other TEs), at which point either Glennon has shocked everyone and continues to start, or the rookie comes in for reps in games the Bears are likely to lose as a result.

 

 

[killakrzydav]

1. Watson/qb

 

2. Maye/FS

 

3. Johnson/ LOT

 

4. Walker/ DE

 

4. Butt/TE

 

 

[adam]

Gil's assessments are pretty remarkable in regards to how the NFL teams value the players.

 

In the last 3 years, 8 of his top 10 made the NFL Draft top 10 (7 out of 10 in 2013).

 

In 2013, 12 of out his top 15 were drafted in the top 15. In 2014, his top 12 were drafted in the top 11 with the only anomaly being Manziel (which he had at #1 - probably his biggest mistake). Then in 2015, he had the entire top 15 in his first 17 picks with the anomalies of Perriman (his #10 drafted at 26) and Collins (which is understandable). In 2016, 10 out of his top 12 were drafted in the top 12.

 

So if you take out Collins, of his top 15 picks from each draft from 2013-2016 (59 picks), only Geno Smith (39), Myles Jack (36), and A'Shawn Robinson (46) were not 1st round picks (all 2nd rounders). 95%. That is pretty incredible.

 

2013

1) Luke Joeckel, 2

2) Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah, 5

3) Dion Jordan, 3

4) Sharrif Floyd, 23

5) Eric Fisher, 1

6) Dee Milliner, 9

7) Geno Smith, 39

8) Lane Johnson, 4

9) Barkevious Mingo, 6

10) Xavier Rhodes, 25

11) Chance Warmack, 10

12) Jonathan Cooper, 7

13) Sheldon Richardson, 13

14) Star Lotulelei, 14

15) D.J. Fluker, 11

 

2014

1. Manziel 22

2. Clowney 1

3. Mack 5

4. Robinson 2

5. Matthews 6

6. Watkins 4

7. Evans 7

8. Bortles 3

9. Lewan 11

10. Barr 9

11. Gilbert 8

12. Ebron 10

13. Bridgewater 32

14. Martin 16

15. Beckham 12

 

2015

1. Williams 6

2. Fowler 3

3. Cooper 4

4. White 7

5. Winston 1

6. Gurley 10

7. Mariota 2

8. Scherff 5

9. Waynes 11

10. Perriman 26

11. Parker 14

12. Beasley 8

13. Shelton 12

14. Gordon 15

15. Collins UDFA

16. Flowers 9

17. Peat 13

 

2016

1. Tunsil 13

2. Ramsey 5

3. Elliott 4

4. Bosa 3

5. Jack 36

6. Buckner 7

7. Wentz 2

8. Goff 1

9. Stanley 6

10. Conklin 8

11. Rankins 12

12. Floyd 9

13. Robinson 46

14. Hargreaves 11

15. Lee 20

 

2017

1. Garrett

2. Fournette

3. Thomas

4. Lattimore

5. Adams

6. Hooker

7. Allen

8. Trubisky

9. Watson

10. Ross

 

 

[Stinger226]

Gil's assessments are pretty remarkable in regards to how the NFL teams value the players.

 

In the last 3 years, 8 of his top 10 made the NFL Draft top 10 (7 out of 10 in 2013).

 

In 2013, 12 of out his top 15 were drafted in the top 15. In 2014, his top 12 were drafted in the top 11 with the only anomaly being Manziel (which he had at #1 - probably his biggest mistake). Then in 2015, he had the entire top 15 in his first 17 picks with the anomalies of Perriman (his #10 drafted at 26) and Collins (which is understandable). In 2016, 10 out of his top 12 were drafted in the top 12.

 

So if you take out Collins, of his top 15 picks from each draft from 2013-2016 (59 picks), only Geno Smith (39), Myles Jack (36), and A'Shawn Robinson (46) were not 1st round picks (all 2nd rounders). 95%. That is pretty incredible.

 

2013

1) Luke Joeckel, 2

2) Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah, 5

3) Dion Jordan, 3

4) Sharrif Floyd, 23

5) Eric Fisher, 1

6) Dee Milliner, 9

7) Geno Smith, 39

8) Lane Johnson, 4

9) Barkevious Mingo, 6

10) Xavier Rhodes, 25

11) Chance Warmack, 10

12) Jonathan Cooper, 7

13) Sheldon Richardson, 13

14) Star Lotulelei, 14

15) D.J. Fluker, 11

 

2014

1. Manziel 22

2. Clowney 1

3. Mack 5

4. Robinson 2

5. Matthews 6

6. Watkins 4

7. Evans 7

8. Bortles 3

9. Lewan 11

10. Barr 9

11. Gilbert 8

12. Ebron 10

13. Bridgewater 32

14. Martin 16

15. Beckham 12

 

2015

1. Williams 6

2. Fowler 3

3. Cooper 4

4. White 7

5. Winston 1

6. Gurley 10

7. Mariota 2

8. Scherff 5

9. Waynes 11

10. Perriman 26

11. Parker 14

12. Beasley 8

13. Shelton 12

14. Gordon 15

15. Collins UDFA

16. Flowers 9

17. Peat 13

 

2016

1. Tunsil 13

2. Ramsey 5

3. Elliott 4

4. Bosa 3

5. Jack 36

6. Buckner 7

7. Wentz 2

8. Goff 1

9. Stanley 6

10. Conklin 8

11. Rankins 12

12. Floyd 9

13. Robinson 46

14. Hargreaves 11

15. Lee 20

 

2017

1. Garrett

2. Fournette

3. Thomas

4. Lattimore

5. Adams

6. Hooker

7. Allen

8. Trubisky

9. Watson

10. Ross

I seriously dont see any of the top 4 QBs being studs in the NFL. Trubisky probably becomes a Cousins type. Of which doesnt merrit a #3 pick.

If you grab a Peterman, who also has been compared to Cousins , as a 4th round pick, I would be happy with that.

Others with some upside, Joshua Dobbs and Jerod Evans. There is less chance any of these hit, so we might as well grab a all pro type player in the first round.

 

If all the injuries questions on some players are good, I would say our choose would be one of these 3, Allen-Adams-Hooker.

The more I read about Thomas the more I dont see him being a difference maker, but a good player.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I actually kind of like that draft (assuming it's Watson and not Trubisky), but I think that draft gets Fox fired. There's still a hole at DE with Unrein, still a hole at FS with whoever, and that means the defense won't really improve much unless someone like Bullard steps up. Meanwhile, the RD1 QB sits for at least half the season behind Glennon (while Engram splits time with two other TEs), at which point either Glennon has shocked everyone and continues to start, or the rookie comes in for reps in games the Bears are likely to lose as a result.

I think Fox is safe unless he loses contol and faith from the players. I don't see that happening as they fought and stayed in nearly every game last season. With staying healthy alone, is he defense should be better. They added two capable starters in Cooper and Prince at CB to go along with Demps at S. That should improve the backfield a couple of ticks up. Fuller should be healthy and Hall may just make a decent FS. The only position not fortified was 5T, but added Jenkins to the mix and hefty expectations from Bullard who I think many underestimate. They could go Allen/Thomas there and I wouldn't be surprised. Sanchez makes a solid backup being a vet who may take the #2 snaps for only a week or two to get the basics down before switching with lets say Watson. The reason I have a TE going round 2 is because of a offense built for Watson will require quick recievers getting open in short routes and they can rotate to stay fresh.

[AZ54]

Gil's assessments are pretty remarkable in regards to how the NFL teams value the players.

 

In the last 3 years, 8 of his top 10 made the NFL Draft top 10 (7 out of 10 in 2013).

 

In 2013, 12 of out his top 15 were drafted in the top 15. In 2014, his top 12 were drafted in the top 11 with the only anomaly being Manziel (which he had at #1 - probably his biggest mistake). Then in 2015, he had the entire top 15 in his first 17 picks with the anomalies of Perriman (his #10 drafted at 26) and Collins (which is understandable). In 2016, 10 out of his top 12 were drafted in the top 12.

 

So if you take out Collins, of his top 15 picks from each draft from 2013-2016 (59 picks), only Geno Smith (39), Myles Jack (36), and A'Shawn Robinson (46) were not 1st round picks (all 2nd rounders). 95%. That is pretty incredible.

 

2013

1) Luke Joeckel, 2

2) Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah, 5

3) Dion Jordan, 3

4) Sharrif Floyd, 23

5) Eric Fisher, 1

6) Dee Milliner, 9

7) Geno Smith, 39

8) Lane Johnson, 4

9) Barkevious Mingo, 6

10) Xavier Rhodes, 25

11) Chance Warmack, 10

12) Jonathan Cooper, 7

13) Sheldon Richardson, 13

14) Star Lotulelei, 14

15) D.J. Fluker, 11

 

2014

1. Manziel 22

2. Clowney 1

3. Mack 5

4. Robinson 2

5. Matthews 6

6. Watkins 4

7. Evans 7

8. Bortles 3

9. Lewan 11

10. Barr 9

11. Gilbert 8

12. Ebron 10

13. Bridgewater 32

14. Martin 16

15. Beckham 12

 

2015

1. Williams 6

2. Fowler 3

3. Cooper 4

4. White 7

5. Winston 1

6. Gurley 10

7. Mariota 2

8. Scherff 5

9. Waynes 11

10. Perriman 26

11. Parker 14

12. Beasley 8

13. Shelton 12

14. Gordon 15

15. Collins UDFA

16. Flowers 9

17. Peat 13

 

2016

1. Tunsil 13

2. Ramsey 5

3. Elliott 4

4. Bosa 3

5. Jack 36

6. Buckner 7

7. Wentz 2

8. Goff 1

9. Stanley 6

10. Conklin 8

11. Rankins 12

12. Floyd 9

13. Robinson 46

14. Hargreaves 11

15. Lee 20

 

2017

1. Garrett

2. Fournette

3. Thomas

4. Lattimore

5. Adams

6. Hooker

7. Allen

8. Trubisky

9. Watson

10. Ross

 

 

That's a pretty impressive record, and some good research on your part.

[AZ54]

I actually kind of like that draft (assuming it's Watson and not Trubisky), but I think that draft gets Fox fired. There's still a hole at DE with Unrein, still a hole at FS with whoever, and that means the defense won't really improve much unless someone like Bullard steps up. Meanwhile, the RD1 QB sits for at least half the season behind Glennon (while Engram splits time with two other TEs), at which point either Glennon has shocked everyone and continues to start, or the rookie comes in for reps in games the Bears are likely to lose as a result.

 

I'd just put Engram at WR and leave him there. He's horrible at blocking but he puts a lot of stress on a secondary running routes. Anyone who wants to see the Bears replace Alshon Jeffrey only needs to see the first 30sec of this highlight video to know he'll be better.

 

[AZ54]

What a confusing year. If Brandt has things slotted correctly, then I want the following:

1. Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama

2. Corey Davis, WR, W. Michigan

3. Obi Melifonwu, S, UConn.

 

I'm 100% with you here. You can find an expert to put your player where ever you'd like to see him. Want Jamal Adams at #2 overall see Todd McShay. Want Fournette at #2 overall see guys like Casserly and Brandt. Solomon Thomas at #2 overall see CBS Sports. Yet it's like that all the way down through the first round and the disparity gets bigger the further you go into the top 32. Is WR Mike Williams the 13th best player in this draft or the 23rd? Is McCaffery a top 10 pick, top 20, or top 30? You can find the exact same for Dalvin Cook.