adam Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 This guy built a new trade value chart based on the 124 trades after the last CBA, which seems more accurate than the older chart. http://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/153981...-chart#comments If you use this chart, the #3 pick is worth 514 pts and the #2 pick is worth 717 pts. Our 3rd rounder is worth 75 pts and our 4th rounder is worth 28. So if you give them the same value for 3rd round picks (75+75) for this year and next year, the 4th and #3, the total is 692. So surprisingly, we actually win this trade, and it is close enough to being a wash. The question becomes, was it necessary? The next team that would seem to need a QB was NYJ, and if they tried to move up to #2, it would basically cost their entire draft (at least (1st-5th). Then if you look at teams like KC and HOU who made trades to draft QB's, if they wanted to move to #2, it would cost at least their next two drafts (every pick). So in order for SF to get the player they wanted, there was no way to move down very far (for Solomon). So the Bears did not have to trade up to get Trubisky because there would not be a realistic alternative to the Bears offer. Houston's trade made sense, they have a top 5 defense, and made the playoffs, so they were a QB away from going further in the playoffs. I don't think the Bears were in a position to give up picks with so many holes to fill, but we will see. I like Trubisky, but not what we gave up to get him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Interesting new trade chart. Even if you use the old trade chart, your point about the other teams is made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 I find it interesting that reports claim pace got a lot of phone calls regarding the #3 pick. And my thinking last night held true. Any team that was going to trade up was going to be for a qb. If this is true I would tend to believe that those same teams would have been willing to trade with sf. What we don't exactly know is which teams were talking with us and sf about that spot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 I find it interesting that reports claim pace got a lot of phone calls regarding the #3 pick. And my thinking last night held true. Any team that was going to trade up was going to be for a qb. If this is true I would tend to believe that those same teams would have been willing to trade with sf. What we don't exactly know is which teams were talking with us and sf about that spot Well, we know the teams most likely to trade up for a QB (CLE, HOU, KC) would have had to basically include the rest of their entire 2017 draft to make it equitable, and in the case of HOU and KC, a first rounder next year as well. Do you really think they were offering that? I don't. And, more importantly, was Solomon Thomas going to be there at 12 or beyond for the Niners to select? Absolutely not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Well, we know the teams most likely to trade up for a QB (CLE, HOU, KC) would have had to basically include the rest of their entire 2017 draft to make it equitable, and in the case of HOU and KC, a first rounder next year as well. Do you really think they were offering that? I don't. And, more importantly, was Solomon Thomas going to be there at 12 or beyond for the Niners to select? Absolutely not. So you believe only those teams were willing to move up? Honestly I don't believe that for a second. I also don't believe for a second the notion that sf was only willing to move back far enough as long as they still got Thomas. I think sf had multiple scenarios going on. I wonder if the chargers tried to move up. They need a replacement for Rivers here soon. Sure it would have been costly. And I agree sf wouldn't have got Thomas then. My overall point is that we simply don't know and I doubt we will ever know. I applaud pace for having the cajones to make this move while also saying that pace had better hit and soon otherwise come January he's looking for a new job. Mega huge risk. If trubisky pans out as that franchise guy then the price we gave up doesn't matter. Only thing that matters in the end is the success or failure of trubisky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 So you believe only those teams were willing to move up? Honestly I don't believe that for a second. I also don't believe for a second the notion that sf was only willing to move back far enough as long as they still got Thomas. I think sf had multiple scenarios going on. I wonder if the chargers tried to move up. They need a replacement for Rivers here soon. Sure it would have been costly. And I agree sf wouldn't have got Thomas then. My overall point is that we simply don't know and I doubt we will ever know. I applaud pace for having the cajones to make this move while also saying that pace had better hit and soon otherwise come January he's looking for a new job. Mega huge risk. If trubisky pans out as that franchise guy then the price we gave up doesn't matter. Only thing that matters in the end is the success or failure of trubisky I don't believe the Chargers were ready to move up. That seems foolish since Rivers is still awesome. They might be in the market for a mid-round QB, but they aren't hurting enough to move up to the 2nd pick to get one. The only team not mentioned that needs a QB and had a realistic chance to move up without mortgaging an entire draft worth of picks is the NY Jets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 and Cleveland! THey have tons of extra picks and could afford to sweeten the pot in a trade, and notice we didnt need another #1 or #2 so your point about SF getting Thomas is true. But Cleveland posed a serious threat, and look what KC paid to leapfrom them for Mahomes. Cleveland didnt overpay, they did it right, and as a result, they are making calls for a trade for AJ McCarron right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 I've always hated the chart. In no way one player is worth an entire draft. Especially with out of the gate success rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 and Cleveland! THey have tons of extra picks and could afford to sweeten the pot in a trade, and notice we didnt need another #1 or #2 so your point about SF getting Thomas is true. But Cleveland posed a serious threat, and look what KC paid to leapfrom them for Mahomes. Cleveland didnt overpay, they did it right, and as a result, they are making calls for a trade for AJ McCarron right now. Not sure I understand your reply, but make no mistake, if the draft value chart is even remotely followed, the Browns had to offer their entire draft to move up to #2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Not sure I understand your reply, but make no mistake, if the draft value chart is even remotely followed, the Browns had to offer their entire draft to move up to #2. Or add a high pick next year. Remember they had a ton of picks at that point too, 2 or 3 second rounders etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 If you use the same chart for our trade back with Arizona, we win that trade as well and gain the equivalent of Pick 139. What makes me sick is the 49ers just flipped our 3rd for a 2nd next year. So for doing absolutely nothing, they now have an extra 2nd and 3rd next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Keep in mind it wasnt their WHOLE draft either, they had just taken Myles Garrett Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted April 29, 2017 Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 If you use the same chart for our trade back with Arizona, we win that trade as well and gain the equivalent of Pick 139. What makes me sick is the 49ers just flipped our 3rd for a 2nd next year. So for doing absolutely nothing, they now have an extra 2nd and 3rd next year. Gotta get over that bro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Gotta get over that bro... Done, I am all in, Shaheen could be the steal of the draft and if Trubisky becomes our franchise QB, we will look back on this draft as the turning point for our franchise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2017 Doing the math for all our moves, we have gained the equivalent to pick #96: What we gave up: #3 - 514 #67 - 75 #67 - 75 (2018) #111 - 28 #36 - 166 #221 - 3 Total - 861 #2 - 717 #45 - 131 #119 - 24 #119 - 24 (2018) #197 - 4 Total - 900 #96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted April 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Man I am good: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/...ft-trade-chart/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 Right on! Man I am good: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/...ft-trade-chart/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted May 1, 2017 Report Share Posted May 1, 2017 Man I am good: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/...ft-trade-chart/ :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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