Bears Covert Operations on Trubisky

[Lucky Luciano]

Jason is vastly opinionated and sometimes I agree with him and sometimes I dont. None of our opinions really matter, it will play out to be a good draft or maybe not.

 

i agree. sometimes i do and sometimes i don't. it is just trying at this stage in a new regime to hear this nonstop negative reviews without any support to back up their assumptions. maybe in two or three more years i will feel about pace like i did about angelo. but right now i am giving this regime the benefit of the doubt.

 

i believe our past two drafts from him HAS been successful or at least reasonably so. i do like the way he has created solid players throughout the lineup through free agency (whom themselves have potential) that allows the chance for our draft picks to develop or be gone. it's NOT a one year or even two year evaluation process usually to determine their worth.

 

Pace's other two drafts were less risky, but for me its about identifying talent and I think he can. I think the key to this draft is we dont figure in the scenario is the fact the Regime think we are closer to winning than the record indicated last year. If we were 8-8 and he took this risks, we would say he is going for the brass ring, but being in the third year of a rebuild, it looks bad to take this many risks.

 

this is my opinion only but i see this as the perfect time to go for those players who 'project' to be special players a few years down the road. we now have a solid core of talent which we didn't have prior to him showing up. this gives us time as i have wanted for years to develop through the draft and give these new drafted guys time to show they are NFL quality. we are not superbowl ready at this point anyway.

 

we have a plethora of young mid round possible talent in key positions we need to still evaluate. we can't just keep drafting guys and if they don't aspire immediately we cut them a year later and draft the same positions again. that smacks of the lovie/angelo days where we continued to draft the same positions year after year.

[jason]

so is the ability to rationalize what you write.

 

in regards to your statement: ACCORDING TO WHO? you?

 

if this staff of football operations people had these as the best players on the board that were AVAILABLE at the time they picked how is it that you know more than they do?

 

you won't even disclose where you get your sources of information from. is it from something you saw, read, analyzed, a gut feeling, a fortune teller, a fortune cookie, transmissions from deep space?

 

explain it in great detail... the world is waiting with abated breath.

 

Dude, the majority of the media, many of whom have direct connections to NFL teams, and have similar access to vast amounts of video, think Pace had a bad and/or risky draft. Don't like my take, it's the same as their take. Just google "Bears draft grade" and you'll get a taste. So if they are all wrong, then Pace will come off looking like a genius. But that just doesn't happen very often. And that should cause skepticism. I can't remember any draft in recent history where everyone was saying it was a bad draft for a team and then a few years later everyone said, "Wow, that guy was right and we were all wrong." Maybe on one pick in draft, but not an entire draft.

 

I don't have to prove myself to you. Nor do I have to rationalize myself to you. Perhaps if you actually watched college football you'd have a different take.

[jason]

Hate to tell you...every pick is a risk... Granted, some more than others. But, it's all a gamble. Some just have better or worse odds of paying out.

 

But...

 

I agree, and said as much in one of the original comments. But that's a risk in general terms. All players are risks. Some are less risky than others, however, and if you constantly go the risky route, it lessens the odds of success.

[BearFan PHX]

I agree, and said as much in one of the original comments. But that's a risk in general terms. All players are risks. Some are less risky than others, however, and if you constantly go the risky route, it lessens the odds of success.

 

It depends on how you define success. If your only metric is whether the players make your roster or not you may be correct.

 

If instead, you have a coefficient for quality, then you may not be correct.

 

A safer pick has a higher floor and a lower ceiling, a riskier pick may have a higher potential outcome, but be less certain to be good at all.

 

If you take only safe picks, you will be 8-8. You wont lose.

 

If you want to be the best out of 32, you have to do something more than just the safe route. You gotta take risks on players that could be great.

 

Players that are going to be great no matter what are extremely rare, and you cant find them in the 3rd round.

 

At this point Pace is looking for his leaders, the guys that will be the core of the team, and he will take safe picks to put around them once he finds them.

 

He believes, as do I, that you need a franchise QB to be successful in this league. They dont grow on trees, and there are no sure things. So he took a swing at one in the draft.

 

As for calling Shaheen a big risk, even your common wisdom says he was likely pick at or around where we took him.

 

For 20 years, the Bears office didnt have a General Manager, and for a while after, they had puppets at GM. They followed conventional wisdom. They took highly rated players at the slots they were supposed to go, and we got David Terrell, Curtis Enis, Alonzo Spellman, Stan Thomas etc etc

 

Youre starting to come off like Steve Rosenbloom here. I know it feels good to act like you know more than the professionals, but the proof will be on the field, not in some draft guide.

 

If Trubisky sucks, and Shaheen sucks etc then we will know it. Until then, you dont know anything but what the herd is saying.

[jason]

It depends on how you define success. If your only metric is whether the players make your roster or not you may be correct.

 

If instead, you have a coefficient for quality, then you may not be correct.

 

A safer pick has a higher floor and a lower ceiling, a riskier pick may have a higher potential outcome, but be less certain to be good at all.

 

If you take only safe picks, you will be 8-8. You wont lose.

 

If you want to be the best out of 32, you have to do something more than just the safe route. You gotta take risks on players that could be great.

 

Players that are going to be great no matter what are extremely rare, and you cant find them in the 3rd round.

 

At this point Pace is looking for his leaders, the guys that will be the core of the team, and he will take safe picks to put around them once he finds them.

 

He believes, as do I, that you need a franchise QB to be successful in this league. They dont grow on trees, and there are no sure things. So he took a swing at one in the draft.

 

As for calling Shaheen a big risk, even your common wisdom says he was likely pick at or around where we took him.

 

For 20 years, the Bears office didnt have a General Manager, and for a while after, they had puppets at GM. They followed conventional wisdom. They took highly rated players at the slots they were supposed to go, and we got David Terrell, Curtis Enis, Alonzo Spellman, Stan Thomas etc etc

 

Youre starting to come off like Steve Rosenbloom here. I know it feels good to act like you know more than the professionals, but the proof will be on the field, not in some draft guide.

 

If Trubisky sucks, and Shaheen sucks etc then we will know it. Until then, you dont know anything but what the herd is saying.

 

I agree with this for the most part. Like I've said, Pace had guts and is definitely shooting for huge upside rather than safe plays. I wouldn't say safe picks always equate to 8-8, however, as those guys can improve like the high-upside guys. If there is a safe, average guy, he could go from a 5 to a 7. A huge upside guy could go from a 5 to a 9. Of course, more of those safe guys are likely to stay in that 5 to 7 range, and more of the other guys have a risk of dropping below average. It's certainly a preference of strategy. Go for a lot of singles or swing for the fences. Singles can produce runs and wins, but they can also be fielded and thrown out. Swinging for the fences produces mostly strikeouts and homeruns. Hit a few homeruns and you start to win games.

 

My intent is not to come off like Rosenbloom, someone I really don't follow. But I do invest a lot more than the average person into watching, reviewing, officiating, and evaluating college football. I don't claim to "know" more than professionals. I do, however, claim to have picked better than the "professionals" running the Bears during most of my lifetime. It would be different if it were someone widely regarded as a great drafter having this class. People would say, "Hey, his track record shows he can find great players." That remains to be seen for Pace, even if the 2016 draft is a nice notch in his belt.

[BearFan PHX]

Yup. I can agree with that, thank you.

 

I just think we will see it on the field, and if you buy into the need for a franchise QB then you know there is a lot of risk in finding one, and we pretty much had no choice but to go in on Trubisky if we thought he could be that guy. We missed on Wentz and Mariota already, and at some point you gotta get one even if you have to overpay. Sitting at #3 I think this was the year to do it. I sure hope he works out. No one can say for sure today that he will, including Pace. But he will have a year to develop and that's about as good a plan as you can make without being able to predict the future.

[Stinger226]

Yup. I can agree with that, thank you.

 

I just think we will see it on the field, and if you buy into the need for a franchise QB then you know there is a lot of risk in finding one, and we pretty much had no choice but to go in on Trubisky if we thought he could be that guy. We missed on Wentz and Mariota already, and at some point you gotta get one even if you have to overpay. Sitting at #3 I think this was the year to do it. I sure hope he works out. No one can say for sure today that he will, including Pace. But he will have a year to develop and that's about as good a plan as you can make without being able to predict the future.

we will never know, if we didnt move up, whether Tribusky would have still been there at three, but in the end, it only matters if he turns out to be a top 10 type QB. Pace will live or die with this move, and I applaud him for having balls to go after what he believes. It was known we wanted Donald and he was taken the pick before us, if our GM at the time have some foreskin, he would have went up and got him. We will never know and it doesnt matter.