What if...

[Alaskan Grizzly]

For shits and grins, I watched this. He looks pretty damn good.

 

1-2: The first two throws are pin-point. Maybe inches away from catches both times. No way the defender could sniff the ball.

3: Roll out, rocket, only Hopkins had a chance. Safe, smart play from the EZ.

4: Good play action roll out, smart rocket into Miller's chest for a first down.

5: Bad throw. Didn't read the LB.

6: Great elusivenesss, smart throw with only an incompletion or tough catch by his WR possible.

7: Nice rollout and throw. Simple, easy. Would have been more but the WR fell.

8: Great pocket presence, stepped up in pressure, easy checkdown throw. Smart. Didn't try to force anything.

9: DB jumped his out, and he still had enough arm strength that it wasn't picked. Just an incompletion.

10: Near his own EZ, nobody open, doesn't force it, scrambles for a few yards. Smart.

11: Poor mechanics, almost a jump-throw, but he rockets it in to a WR where only he can catch it. First down.

12: Smart checkdown to Lamar Miller for a first down. Didn't force the first read.

13: Threads the zone to Hopkins. Great throw.

14: Feels the pressure, steps forward a hair, checks down to Miller. Easy.

15: 3/15, dances in the pocket, shows great elusiveness, runs 49 yards for a TD (holds ball kind of wildly)

(NOTE: This is why he is so dangerous. He is Vick-esque, and is dangerous if the D just sits back in coverage)

16: Good pocket awareness, scrambles for a few yards

17: Quick out, fast, on the outside shoulder where only Hopkins can catch it.

18: Throws into double-coverage and gets his receiver killed

19: Good out to Hopkins, but Jones takes it away for an incompletion

20: Good rollout, smart throw

21: Play action, run to the edge. Busted play immediately.

22: Rocket to Hopkins, but the WR bobbles for less than the first down.

23: play action, rocket on the out to Hopkins. A bit high, but catchable.

24: Stands in front of pressure and throws a catchable ball.

25: Good pocket awareness, waits as long as he can and then throws it away

26: Nice throw to Hopkins on the out

27: Repeat of 26

28: Repeat of 27 but to a different WR

29: Good pocket awareness, steps forward and runs for what he can get

 

All in all, he looked pretty damn good. I'd say he made two bad decisions (5 & 18).

 

Yeah, I saw a lot of the same things you did. I especially don't (didn't) like how he carries the ball so far away from his body. And there were a few close calls but again, majority of his reads were good. Wasn't seeing the 'overwhelming' factor. One thing I did notice is that he's been sacked a total of four(?) times already? So the fact he's adjusting with regular pressure helps too.

 

But like AZ said; once Trubisky starts his scheme will appear pretty similar. That is until he gets more comfortable and confident. And in that context he described Trubisky will be overwhelmed. If that's what meant in regards to Watson then I understand. So far though he (Watson) seems to be handling the pressure. In time I hope (and expect) Trubisky will too.

 

[jason]

Yeah, I saw a lot of the same things you did. I especially don't (didn't) like how he carries the ball so far away from his body. And there were a few close calls but again, majority of his reads were good. Wasn't seeing the 'overwhelming' factor. One thing I did notice is that he's been sacked a total of four(?) times already? So the fact he's adjusting with regular pressure helps too.

 

But like AZ said; once Trubisky starts his scheme will appear pretty similar. That is until he gets more comfortable and confident. And in that context he described Trubisky will be overwhelmed. If that's what meant in regards to Watson then I understand. So far though he (Watson) seems to be handling the pressure. In time I hope (and expect) Trubisky will too.

 

Overwhelming? No. But that's pretty damn good accuracy and composure for a guy whose main fault was that he was considered an athlete-QB instead of a QB-athlete by some. He had several throws where the only possibly options were catch or incompletion. That's much better than the throws Cutler often threw, or the ones Glennon appears to throw, where it's a choice between the two previous options and interception.

[adam]

For shits and grins, I watched this. He looks pretty damn good.

 

1-2: The first two throws are pin-point. Maybe inches away from catches both times. No way the defender could sniff the ball.

3: Roll out, rocket, only Hopkins had a chance. Safe, smart play from the EZ.

4: Good play action roll out, smart rocket into Miller's chest for a first down.

5: Bad throw. Didn't read the LB.

6: Great elusivenesss, smart throw with only an incompletion or tough catch by his WR possible.

7: Nice rollout and throw. Simple, easy. Would have been more but the WR fell.

8: Great pocket presence, stepped up in pressure, easy checkdown throw. Smart. Didn't try to force anything.

9: DB jumped his out, and he still had enough arm strength that it wasn't picked. Just an incompletion.

10: Near his own EZ, nobody open, doesn't force it, scrambles for a few yards. Smart.

11: Poor mechanics, almost a jump-throw, but he rockets it in to a WR where only he can catch it. First down.

12: Smart checkdown to Lamar Miller for a first down. Didn't force the first read.

13: Threads the zone to Hopkins. Great throw.

14: Feels the pressure, steps forward a hair, checks down to Miller. Easy.

15: 3/15, dances in the pocket, shows great elusiveness, runs 49 yards for a TD (holds ball kind of wildly)

(NOTE: This is why he is so dangerous. He is Vick-esque, and is dangerous if the D just sits back in coverage)

16: Good pocket awareness, scrambles for a few yards

17: Quick out, fast, on the outside shoulder where only Hopkins can catch it.

18: Throws into double-coverage and gets his receiver killed

19: Good out to Hopkins, but Jones takes it away for an incompletion

20: Good rollout, smart throw

21: Play action, run to the edge. Busted play immediately.

22: Rocket to Hopkins, but the WR bobbles for less than the first down.

23: play action, rocket on the out to Hopkins. A bit high, but catchable.

24: Stands in front of pressure and throws a catchable ball.

25: Good pocket awareness, waits as long as he can and then throws it away

26: Nice throw to Hopkins on the out

27: Repeat of 26

28: Repeat of 27 but to a different WR

29: Good pocket awareness, steps forward and runs for what he can get

 

All in all, he looked pretty damn good. I'd say he made two bad decisions (5 & 18).

 

Spot on assessment of plays Jason. One thing I did notice, a bunch of his receivers were on a spot, stationary, comebacks, outs, etc. I don't remember a slant, post, or any seam routes, or if there were, there were very few. That stood out to me after watching the video. So I couldn't really assess if he could hit guys in stride or time throws to where they are going to be. Did you notice that? Does that even make sense? Very little opportunity for YAC. I wonder if I am just seeing things, or if it is real and planned.

 

Another crazy thing about Watson, based on QBR, he is the 2nd best QB in the league (behind Ryan). Glennon is 26th. Kizer is 30th. I know QBR is no better than other analytics, but I thought it was interesting to see him that high after two weeks.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Another crazy thing about Watson, based on QBR, he is the 2nd best QB in the league (behind Ryan). Glennon is 26th. Kizer is 30th. I know QBR is no better than other analytics, but I thought it was interesting to see him that high after two weeks.

 

Not really knowing what all goes into QBR, I'm going to assume what's helped him are the lack of turnovers and how many overall TDs he's been directly responsible for. Like AZ pointed out Watson's average yards per throw are minimal. In other words not a lot of 20+ yd throws. I don't think he's actually thrown for a total of more than 200 yards in a game yet where 300 per game seems the norm.

 

At any rate, he's still doing 'as advertised' so far. Hope that Trubisky does as well if not better when it's his turn.

 

[AZ54]

For shits and grins, I watched this. He looks pretty damn good.

 

1-2: The first two throws are pin-point. Maybe inches away from catches both times. No way the defender could sniff the ball.

 

His first pass is so weak it barely makes it to the WR. Yes, he's the only one who could have caught but it was so bad he didn't.

 

Second pass is way underthrown, about 5 yards. Miller has his CB beat badly and is wide open. The play should have landed upfield where the FS is headed, because that's where the WR would have been if the throw was on target. For me this was my main concern with him because I didn't see the deep ball accuracy and I think if he can't improve on that he'll be facing a lot of stacked box defenses in his career similar to what Hoyer, and now Glennon, sees.

 

3: Roll out, rocket, only Hopkins had a chance. Safe, smart play from the EZ.

 

The third throw is almost short-hopped to Hopkins who makes a good diving catch. Zero chance of any yac with a bad throw like that.

 

4: Good play action roll out, smart rocket into Miller's chest for a first down.

 

Simple roll out with a couple high low reads. He hits the middle route late with a good throw. Trubisky will likely have these plays a few times a game. Do it too often and teams start to sniff it out, he will see a DE/OLB right in his face as he starts to roll out.

 

5: Bad throw. Didn't read the LB.

 

Horrible read and like Glennon does it was all he read.

 

 

6: Great elusivenesss, smart throw with only an incompletion or tough catch by his WR possible.

 

No doubting his elusiveness and running ability. Stupid, and bad inaccurate throw off his back foot into tight coverage in the red zone. In the future I hope he learns to just throw that one away but we saw some of this on his college tape too.

 

7: Nice rollout and throw. Simple, easy. Would have been more but the WR fell.

 

Again, I see inaccurate throw to an open WR Miller who has to extend out so far to make the catch he loses his footing.

 

8: Great pocket presence, stepped up in pressure, easy checkdown throw. Smart. Didn't try to force anything.

 

I agree, good pocket awareness and he stays in to make the pass. He has two safety valves underneath and takes one for a good gain. It is hard to know what he had downfield if anything but this was a positive play.

 

 

9: DB jumped his out, and he still had enough arm strength that it wasn't picked. Just an incompletion.

 

Very weak pass. Decision is ok with DB in off coverage but he'll learn this has to be rifled into the WR so he has time to make the DB miss.

 

 

10: Near his own EZ, nobody open, doesn't force it, scrambles for a few yards. Smart.

 

He has one guy open on the far right but with a good pass rush he does the right thing and picks up positive yards and lives for the next play.

 

 

11: Poor mechanics, almost a jump-throw, but he rockets it in to a WR where only he can catch it. First down.

 

Third down he gets the ball where it needs to be for a first.

 

12: Smart checkdown to Lamar Miller for a first down. Didn't force the first read.

 

Staying short, again. But I agree he is moving the chains

 

13: Threads the zone to Hopkins. Great throw.

 

His best throw in the game.

 

14: Feels the pressure, steps forward a hair, checks down to Miller. Easy.

 

Taking what he's given.

 

15: 3/15, dances in the pocket, shows great elusiveness, runs 49 yards for a TD (holds ball kind of wildly)

(NOTE: This is why he is so dangerous. He is Vick-esque, and is dangerous if the D just sits back in coverage)

 

Yes, he can run but he can't dance.

 

16: Good pocket awareness, scrambles for a few yards

 

Without the all-22 I can't tell anything about what he sees downfield. Yes, he can run.

 

 

17: Quick out, fast, on the outside shoulder where only Hopkins can catch it.

 

What is surprising here is that Hopkins just stops on his route and turns around instead of cutting outside. With that inside LB coming underneath normally you'd like to be further outside. Is that the offense of just a modification for Watson? On the other hand I said last year I don't like how Hopkins runs routes and I think he's overrated.

 

 

18: Throws into double-coverage and gets his receiver killed

 

Yikes. Single coverage on the right again with a stop route. I feel for Tyler Ervin. You don't think this is a sign of a QB who is not comfortable reading defenses and who really isn't seeing the field well yet?

 

 

19: Good out to Hopkins, but Jones takes it away for an incompletion

 

He's overestimating Hopkins ability to win. Watson is smart, he'll learn.

 

20: Good rollout, smart throw

 

It was another one of these rollout easy read plays you do for QBs who don't know how to read the entire field.

 

21: Play action, run to the edge. Busted play immediately.

 

Elusiveness barely beats #75 to the edge

 

 

22: Rocket to Hopkins, but the WR bobbles for less than the first down.

 

Don't like Hopkins. It's a good read and throw and he should have helped his QB with a few more yards here.

 

23: play action, rocket on the out to Hopkins. A bit high, but catchable.

...and I'm tired.

 

24: Stands in front of pressure and throws a catchable ball.

25: Good pocket awareness, waits as long as he can and then throws it away

26: Nice throw to Hopkins on the out

27: Repeat of 26

28: Repeat of 27 but to a different WR

29: Good pocket awareness, steps forward and runs for what he can get

 

All in all, he looked pretty damn good. I'd say he made two bad decisions (5 & 18).

 

I go two plays and it's clear we just evaluate passing totally differently.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5. Horrible read and like Glennon it was all he read.

 

6. No doubting his elusiveness and running ability. Stupid, and bad inaccurate throw off his back foot into tight coverage in the red zone. In the future I hope he learns to just throw that one away but this is what we saw on his college tape too.

 

7. Again, I see inaccurate throw to an open WR Miller who has to extend out so far to make the catch he loses his footing.

 

8. I agree, good pocket awareness and he stays in to make the pass. He has two safety valves underneath and takes one for a good gain. It is hard to know what he had downfield if anything but this was a positive play.