Stinger226 Posted December 25, 2017 Report Share Posted December 25, 2017 Updated with the late games, and the 49ers win. If they can beat the Rams next week (who knows), we could go as low as 7th (w/ 49ers and Broncos wins) and we lose. If we somehow win, we are looking at 11th or 12th. 1. Browns 0-15 2. Giants 2-13 (WAS) 3. Colts 3-12 (HOU) 4. Bucs 4-11 (NO) 5. Texans 4-10 (PIT/IND) will move to 4th with loss (Browns own pick) ----------------------- 6. Broncos 5-10 (KC) 7. 49ers 5-10 (LAR) 8. Jets 5-10 (NE) 9. Bears 5-10 (MIN) ----------------------- 10. Bengals 6-9 (BAL) 11. Dolphins 6-9 (BUF) 12. Raiders 6-8 (PHI/LAC) will move to 11th with loss tomorrow If we can stay in the top 10 that is the best we can hope for. I also think there is value in winning for the young players on the team. We absolutely are setup to be next years Rams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted December 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 1. Browns 0-15 2. Giants 2-13 (WAS) 3. Colts 3-12 (HOU) 4. Texans 4-11 (IND) *to Browns 5. Bucs 4-11 (NO) ----------------------- 6. Broncos 5-10 (KC) 7. 49ers 5-10 (LAR) 8. Jets 5-10 (NE) 9. Bears 5-10 (MIN) ----------------------- 10. Bengals 6-9 (BAL) 11. Raiders 6-8 (LAC) 12. Dolphins 6-9 (BUF) So going into Week 17, based on the latest news (KC starting Mahomes and LAR resting starters), we actually have a great chance to slide back to the 7th pick (with SF and DEN passing us). I just checked and even if TB wins and we lose, we still would have a better SOS than them and lose the tie breaker. So it looks like our best realistic slot is 7th. So a loss is really more important than a win for us at this point, we just need to play competitively, and get more reps for Trubisky. The 7th pick and passing Denver puts us in a better position to trade down. Also, think of it this way, if 3x QB's and Barkley go before we pick, we can technically get the 3rd best positional player outside of RB/QB, which would be sweet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted December 28, 2017 Report Share Posted December 28, 2017 1. Browns 0-15 2. Giants 2-13 (WAS) 3. Colts 3-12 (HOU) 4. Texans 4-11 (IND) *to Browns 5. Bucs 4-11 (NO) ----------------------- 6. Broncos 5-10 (KC) 7. 49ers 5-10 (LAR) 8. Jets 5-10 (NE) 9. Bears 5-10 (MIN) ----------------------- 10. Bengals 6-9 (BAL) 11. Raiders 6-8 (LAC) 12. Dolphins 6-9 (BUF) So going into Week 17, based on the latest news (KC starting Mahomes and LAR resting starters), we actually have a great chance to slide back to the 7th pick (with SF and DEN passing us). I just checked and even if TB wins and we lose, we still would have a better SOS than them and lose the tie breaker. So it looks like our best realistic slot is 7th. So a loss is really more important than a win for us at this point, we just need to play competitively, and get more reps for Trubisky. The 7th pick and passing Denver puts us in a better position to trade down. Also, think of it this way, if 3x QB's and Barkley go before we pick, we can technically get the 3rd best positional player outside of RB/QB, which would be sweet. I agree with you. #7 looks like the likely spot. I really think the Broncos beat the Chiefs. The Chiefs have virtually nothing to play for. Also, the Niners are on fire. I also think the 49ers beat the Rams. By the time they play, the Bears will have already lost to the Vikings, and the Vikings will have locked up the #2 seed. That means the Rams have nothing to play for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted December 29, 2017 Report Share Posted December 29, 2017 I agree with you. #7 looks like the likely spot. I really think the Broncos beat the Chiefs. The Chiefs have virtually nothing to play for. Also, the Niners are on fire. I also think the 49ers beat the Rams. By the time they play, the Bears will have already lost to the Vikings, and the Vikings will have locked up the #2 seed. That means the Rams have nothing to play for. Actually the Rams arent playing their stars, so probable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted December 29, 2017 Report Share Posted December 29, 2017 Actually the Rams arent playing their stars, so probable Even better. I guess they're not even considering the possibility the Bears win, which would then give them the possibility of the #2 seed. I haven't worked out the various tie-breakers, but the NFL.com site doesn't have the queens as having an auto-bye yet, so there is still a chance for the Rams. The Bears should be drafting 7th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted December 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2017 Even better. I guess they're not even considering the possibility the Bears win, which would then give them the possibility of the #2 seed. I haven't worked out the various tie-breakers, but the NFL.com site doesn't have the queens as having an auto-bye yet, so there is still a chance for the Rams. The Bears should be drafting 7th. The Rams cannot get the #2 seed, and the only way for Minnesota to lose the #2 seed is if the Bears, 49ers, Bucs, and Panthers all win this weekend (which would give the #2 seed to the Panthers). They can only be the #3 or #4 seed, but that is dependent on their game, the NO/TB game, and the ATL/CAR game. I saw an article that said the Rams actually prefer the #4 seed since regardless of first game at home, the 2nd game would be away. The #4 seed would play the #1 seed (which is Wentz-less Philly), which is the easiest path to the NFCC. The winner of the #3/#6 seed game goes to Minnesota. On the AFC side, JAX and KC both locked into #3 and #4 seeds, so losses are likely. The late games are going to be action packed with so many scenarios coming to a head at the same time. Here is the best scenario breakdown I have seen (sorry for big images): Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted December 29, 2017 Report Share Posted December 29, 2017 The Rams cannot get the #2 seed, and the only way for Minnesota to lose the #2 seed is if the Bears, 49ers, Bucs, and Panthers all win this weekend (which would give the #2 seed to the Panthers). They can only be the #3 or #4 seed, but that is dependent on their game, the NO/TB game, and the ATL/CAR game. I saw an article that said the Rams actually prefer the #4 seed since regardless of first game at home, the 2nd game would be away. The #4 seed would play the #1 seed (which is Wentz-less Philly), which is the easiest path to the NFCC. The winner of the #3/#6 seed game goes to Minnesota. On the AFC side, JAX and KC both locked into #3 and #4 seeds, so losses are likely. The late games are going to be action packed with so many scenarios coming to a head at the same time. Here is the best scenario breakdown I have seen (sorry for big images): That's awesome! Thanks!! I knew there had to be a remote possibility if NFL hasn't given the bye to a second NFC team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowlingtwig Posted December 29, 2017 Report Share Posted December 29, 2017 The Rams cannot get the #2 seed, and the only way for Minnesota to lose the #2 seed is if the Bears, 49ers, Bucs, and Panthers all win this weekend (which would give the #2 seed to the Panthers). They can only be the #3 or #4 seed, but that is dependent on their game, the NO/TB game, and the ATL/CAR game. I saw an article that said the Rams actually prefer the #4 seed since regardless of first game at home, the 2nd game would be away. The #4 seed would play the #1 seed (which is Wentz-less Philly), which is the easiest path to the NFCC. The winner of the #3/#6 seed game goes to Minnesota. On the AFC side, JAX and KC both locked into #3 and #4 seeds, so losses are likely. The late games are going to be action packed with so many scenarios coming to a head at the same time. Here is the best scenario breakdown I have seen (sorry for big images): Actually of the #6 seed wins there wild card matchup then they travel to the #1 seed. If the #3 seed wins then they go to the #2 seed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted December 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2017 Actually of the #6 seed wins there wild card matchup then they travel to the #1 seed. If the #3 seed wins then they go to the #2 seed Correct, the assumption with the Rams was they expected the home teams (3 and 4) would win. You' re right though, if 6 wins, Rams at 4 would play the Vikings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted December 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 *Updated order after early games* 1. Browns 0-16 2. Giants 3-13 3. Colts 4-12 4. Texans 4-12 *to Browns ------------------ 5. Broncos 5-11 6. Jets 5-11 7. Bucs 5-11 (SOS .555) 8. Bears 5-11 (SOS .559) So we end up with the 8th pick. The only saving grace is we swap spots with the other 5-11 teams every round, so our 2nd rounder will be 7th (#39) and our 4th rounder will be 5th in the round after the 3rd round comp picks (currently #69). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McGowan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Guys, does anyone know who "wins" the tiebreaker between Bears/TB? I thought that TB because of their division, has a stronger SOS, along with the Bears now having Cleveland on their schedule. Is there any clarification about this? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 Guys, does anyone know who "wins" the tiebreaker between Bears/TB? I thought that TB because of their division, has a stronger SOS, along with the Bears now having Cleveland on their schedule. Is there any clarification about this? Thanks. After last week, we still had a better SOS than them and we played MIN (13-3) and they played NO (11-5), so we lost some ground there. So it looks like there is no way for TB to pass us in SOS, so we draft 8th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 After last week, we still had a better SOS than them and we played MIN (13-3) and they played NO (11-5), so we lost some ground there. So it looks like there is no way for TB to pass us in SOS, so we draft 8th. We draft 8th overall, and I'm not sure on the whole SOS but might be as high as 37th overall (5th pick 2nd Rd). That's if they fully swap the SOS order in Rd 2 of the 5-win teams. https://www.sbnation.com/2017/12/31/1683175...picks-selection Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 1. Browns 0-16 2. Giants 3-13 3. Colts 4-12 4. Texans 4-12 *to Browns ------------------ 5. Broncos 5-11 6. Jets 5-11 7. Bucs 5-11 (SOS .555) 8. Bears 5-11 (SOS .559) So we end up with the 8th pick. The only saving grace is we swap spots with the other 5-11 teams every round, so our 2nd rounder will be 7th (#39) and our 4th rounder will be 5th in the round after the 3rd round comp picks (currently #69). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted January 1, 2018 Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 What may matter most in all this is that 4 teams ahead of us need QBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2018 What may matter most in all this is that 4 teams ahead of us need QBs. 1. Browns - Yes 2. Giants - Yes (but depends on how they view Eli, may not use with this pick) 3. Colts - No 4. Browns - No (assuming they took one at #1) 5. Broncos - Yes (but may be in the Cousins sweepstakes, or they like Osweiler) 6. Jets - Yes 7. Bucs - No 8. Bears So there is a good chance 3x QBs and Barkley go before we pick. That gives us the 4th best positional player (outside of QB/RB). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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