Saints sign Meredith to an offer sheet

[BearFan PHX]

53 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

What's the mistake?  Pace could have definitely had him for 1yr at $2.9 mil.  Everyone knows nobody was going to give up a 2nd Rd pick for Meredith so that option was on the table for Pace.   Now for just $5mil guaranteed we get Meredith for 2 years.  If he does not return to form after the knee injury then we lost an extra $2mil to find out.  If he does, then at $5mil/yr he's a bargain for 2 years.  If he does return to form after one year Pace can offer him a new longer term deal next year when he might be much cheaper than he could be after two years.   I don't see any way Pace wasn't expecting this type of a contract for Meredith, or even hoping it would happen.  

exactly.

[Stinger226]

We haven't seen the contract yet, it is for 9.6. It could be 4 mil the first year. which means we pay an extra 1 mil this year. If he plays well, its very cheap for a second year. Win win

[BearFan PHX]

Here's what I'm trying to say:

Pace obviously knew he could have guaranteed that he could keep Meredith for one year for $2.9 Million, or receive a 2nd round pick. For some reason he didn't do that. Here are a few different options, and what they might mean. In all cases, Pace didn't "make a mistake"

The first fork in the logic tree is how good Pace thinks Meredith is. I'll split this up into two groups, the first is, he's a stopgap measure and the second is that Pace sees a future for him in Chicago.

ASSUMPTION #1, Pace thinks Meredith is a stopgap measure.
In this scenario, Pace is simply looking at free agents, and has determined that Meredith is a better option than any other Free Agent that's currently available. Under this scenario, Pace doesn't want a long term relationship with Meredith, so he puts some price on it in his head, and won't pay more. Since we KNOW that Meredith could be had for $2.9 Million or a 2nd rounder, under this assumption, Pace would have to think that he wasn't worth $2.9 Million to the Bears, and not worth any 2nd rounder to the team.

Therefore, Pace would not re-sign Meredith, and he'd go to the Saints. Pace would make the Saints wait for the full 5 days, and feel fine with it, because he had already determined that Meredith was a stopgap measure, and there will be another free agent who is in the same not-so-great category for a similar price.

OUTCOME: Pace did not make an error in not choosing the 2nd round tender, because he thinks Meredith isn't worth more than $2 Million a year, and his move was correct.

For what it's worth, this is not the scenario that I believe in. I'm just eliminating it mathematically, so we can focus on...

ASSUMPTION #2, Pace thinks Meredith has a future on the team
In this scenario, Pace wants to get a long term deal now. He thinks that 2018 might be a very prolific year for Bears WRs, and he believes in Meredith enough that he thinks he will be productive, and therefore more expensive to sign to a long term deal next year. Also, when you have a guy on a tag, they often feel unloved, like the team didn't offer enough to get a long term deal done, and they go to another team when free agency hits again the next year.

Under this assumption, Pace wants a long term deal, and Meredith's agent is asking for too much. When you tag a player, it allows other teams to do your negotiating for you (like in the Fuller situation) and the player & agent find out what they're really worth on the open market. At that point, you can match or pass. So tagging in general is a smart move to create a long term deal the player HAS to sign if you choose. It breaks the stalemate.

Now regarding WHICH tender offer to make, he has two reasonable choices; the $1.9 Million tender, or the $2.9 Million tender that receives a second round pick.

The $2.9 Million tender with 2nd round pick is problematic under the current assumption. It probably drives away offers, and if none is made, then you don't get the long term deal, you just get him for one year at at $2.9 Million, and lose him or pay more for him next year. It makes no sense under this scenario. If what you WANT is a team to make an offer so you can wrap him up at current value, then this is a bad move.

Some will say "OK, but then you'll get a 2nd round pick" and this is a different scenario where Pace thinks Meredith is worth less than a 2nd round pick who hasn't played a down in the NFL. In our current assumption, Pace thinks Meredith is worth keeping. The 2nd round pick is only valuable under the first assumption, that we don't think he's worth anything. And if that's the case, then Pace would be betting that some other team would give us a 2nd rounder for a player he doesnt think is any good, and if the DONT, then you gotta pay him $2.9 Million dollars, which is a lot for a player you don't believe in.

So asking for the 2nd round tender isn't really logical. You'd need to expect a 2nd rounder for a player you don't think is worth one, or you overpay. There is no scenario where you think Meredith is GOOD and has a real $5 Million a year type future, BUT you'd be glad to trade him for a second rounder. And if you don't get the second rounder, then you get him for one year and then lose him next year - remember we are under the long term deal assumption.

OUTCOME: Pace gets the best long term option he is going to see, and can make his choice. This was the right move.

So in any coherent scenario, you see how the logic tree dictate that this tag, and not the 2nd round tender, was the right move, no matter what Pace thinks of Meredith.

Now what's left is to see whether Pace thinks Meredith is worth the deal the Saints put together.

The 2 year aspect of it isn't so bad. You get more time to evaluate him, and sign him long term or find his replacement next year before you get there. The real question is whether Pace thinks he's worth the money. If he doesn't, then no harm in having done it this way. And if he thinks it's close or just a little too rich, he probably accepts it, and gets what he wanted - a longer deal at a price he can agree to.

If Pace was sure, I assume he would have signed quickly like he did with Fuller, to get the maximum goodwill with Meredith, especially since he'll be doing this again in 2 years.

I'm left guessing that either Pace will pass, or he's mulling it over because the money's a bit high for his liking and/or the deal is too short. Maybe he's looking over legalities about how to extend a 2 year tag deal. I dont think you can renegotiate them if you use this contract matching process, so you might not be able to extend it, you might have to wait until it's over and then tag again, or he becomes a UFA.

I have no idea what Pace will do, and I have no idea what Pace thinks of Meredith, but even without that info, I can see that Pace played this correctly, no matter the outcome.

The only scenario where he made the wrong tag choice is if Pace thinks another team really will fork over a 2nd rounder for a player Pace doesnt value highly, and if he makes that bet and loses, then it costs him overpaying a player he doesnt value, that he's letting walk after the year is over anyway. Seems like a bad bet. The 2nd rounder looks all sparkle-y but when you break it down, it's not really there.

 

[Stinger226]

What I read was they offered a long term contract and he wanted more money.  So they agreed on the tender to let the league set his value.  If he turned down a long term contract,  and tagged him with 2.9, it would been a problem for future negotiations.  He would have left pissed  off. Pace did him a favor, now will match or forget about it. It's that simple. 

[BearFan PHX]

47 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

What I read was they offered a long term contract and he wanted more money.  So they agreed on the tender to let the league set his value.  If he turned down a long term contract,  and tagged him with 2.9, it would been a problem for future negotiations.  He would have left pissed  off. Pace did him a favor, now will match or forget about it. It's that simple. 

exactly.

[bradjock]

1 hour ago, BearFan NYC said:

Here's what I'm trying to say:

Pace obviously knew he could have guaranteed that he could keep Meredith for one year for $2.9 Million, or receive a 2nd round pick. For some reason he didn't do that. Here are a few different options, and what they might mean. In all cases, Pace didn't "make a mistake"

The first fork in the logic tree is how good Pace thinks Meredith is. I'll split this up into two groups, the first is, he's a stopgap measure and the second is that Pace sees a future for him in Chicago.

ASSUMPTION #1, Pace thinks Meredith is a stopgap measure.
In this scenario, Pace is simply looking at free agents, and has determined that Meredith is a better option than any other Free Agent that's currently available. Under this scenario, Pace doesn't want a long term relationship with Meredith, so he puts some price on it in his head, and won't pay more. Since we KNOW that Meredith could be had for $2.9 Million or a 2nd rounder, under this assumption, Pace would have to think that he wasn't worth $2.9 Million to the Bears, and not worth any 2nd rounder to the team.

Therefore, Pace would not re-sign Meredith, and he'd go to the Saints. Pace would make the Saints wait for the full 5 days, and feel fine with it, because he had already determined that Meredith was a stopgap measure, and there will be another free agent who is in the same not-so-great category for a similar price.

OUTCOME: Pace did not make an error in not choosing the 2nd round tender, because he thinks Meredith isn't worth more than $2 Million a year, and his move was correct.

For what it's worth, this is not the scenario that I believe in. I'm just eliminating it mathematically, so we can focus on...

ASSUMPTION #2, Pace thinks Meredith has a future on the team
In this scenario, Pace wants to get a long term deal now. He thinks that 2018 might be a very prolific year for Bears WRs, and he believes in Meredith enough that he thinks he will be productive, and therefore more expensive to sign to a long term deal next year. Also, when you have a guy on a tag, they often feel unloved, like the team didn't offer enough to get a long term deal done, and they go to another team when free agency hits again the next year.

Under this assumption, Pace wants a long term deal, and Meredith's agent is asking for too much. When you tag a player, it allows other teams to do your negotiating for you (like in the Fuller situation) and the player & agent find out what they're really worth on the open market. At that point, you can match or pass. So tagging in general is a smart move to create a long term deal the player HAS to sign if you choose. It breaks the stalemate.

Now regarding WHICH tender offer to make, he has two reasonable choices; the $1.9 Million tender, or the $2.9 Million tender that receives a second round pick.

The $2.9 Million tender with 2nd round pick is problematic under the current assumption. It probably drives away offers, and if none is made, then you don't get the long term deal, you just get him for one year at at $2.9 Million, and lose him or pay more for him next year. It makes no sense under this scenario. If what you WANT is a team to make an offer so you can wrap him up at current value, then this is a bad move.

Some will say "OK, but then you'll get a 2nd round pick" and this is a different scenario where Pace thinks Meredith is worth less than a 2nd round pick who hasn't played a down in the NFL. In our current assumption, Pace thinks Meredith is worth keeping. The 2nd round pick is only valuable under the first assumption, that we don't think he's worth anything. And if that's the case, then Pace would be betting that some other team would give us a 2nd rounder for a player he doesnt think is any good, and if the DONT, then you gotta pay him $2.9 Million dollars, which is a lot for a player you don't believe in.

So asking for the 2nd round tender isn't really logical. You'd need to expect a 2nd rounder for a player you don't think is worth one, or you overpay. There is no scenario where you think Meredith is GOOD and has a real $5 Million a year type future, BUT you'd be glad to trade him for a second rounder. And if you don't get the second rounder, then you get him for one year and then lose him next year - remember we are under the long term deal assumption.

OUTCOME: Pace gets the best long term option he is going to see, and can make his choice. This was the right move.

So in any coherent scenario, you see how the logic tree dictate that this tag, and not the 2nd round tender, was the right move, no matter what Pace thinks of Meredith.

Now what's left is to see whether Pace thinks Meredith is worth the deal the Saints put together.

The 2 year aspect of it isn't so bad. You get more time to evaluate him, and sign him long term or find his replacement next year before you get there. The real question is whether Pace thinks he's worth the money. If he doesn't, then no harm in having done it this way. And if he thinks it's close or just a little too rich, he probably accepts it, and gets what he wanted - a longer deal at a price he can agree to.

If Pace was sure, I assume he would have signed quickly like he did with Fuller, to get the maximum goodwill with Meredith, especially since he'll be doing this again in 2 years.

I'm left guessing that either Pace will pass, or he's mulling it over because the money's a bit high for his liking and/or the deal is too short. Maybe he's looking over legalities about how to extend a 2 year tag deal. I dont think you can renegotiate them if you use this contract matching process, so you might not be able to extend it, you might have to wait until it's over and then tag again, or he becomes a UFA.

I have no idea what Pace will do, and I have no idea what Pace thinks of Meredith, but even without that info, I can see that Pace played this correctly, no matter the outcome.

The only scenario where he made the wrong tag choice is if Pace thinks another team really will fork over a 2nd rounder for a player Pace doesnt value highly, and if he makes that bet and loses, then it costs him overpaying a player he doesnt value, that he's letting walk after the year is over anyway. Seems like a bad bet. The 2nd rounder looks all sparkle-y but when you break it down, it's not really there.

 

That’s a really good analysis.  However, I have a tough time believing that Pace wanted Meredith to test free agency so he could sign him to a two year deal that’s worth up to 12 million.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, bradjock said:

That’s a really good analysis.  However, I have a tough time believing that Pace wanted Meredith to test free agency so he could sign him to a two year deal that’s worth up to 12 million.  

yeah, I cant speak to the price, but I agree that 2 years wasn't his hope. In that way maybe the Saints are hoping to poach him.

I can see Pace going either way on this, and taking his time to decide too.

I'm not saying this worked out well, simply that the $2.9 Million 2nd round tender wouldn't have given him what he wanted either.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Its interesting some of the pieces coming out of the trib have been kind of vague on Meredith. I wonder if those are leaks by Bears front office to start prepping people for the inevitable loss of Meredith.  I think it would be a massive mistake, mainly because I like Cam and see no downside to guaranteeing him $5M this year (to invest in having him locked up next year at a reasonable rate). If he struggles to get back, he's gone and he really hasn't gotten in anyone's way. 

I don't see us investing at wideout early this year (given the money spent on Robinson) and I can't imagine you want to just hand the keys over to some 4th round pick, but maybe they want to go that route and see Meredith "getting in the way".  

[bradjock]

21 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

yeah, I cant speak to the price, but I agree that 2 years wasn't his hope. In that way maybe the Saints are hoping to poach him.

I can see Pace going either way on this, and taking his time to decide too.

I'm not saying this worked out well, simply that the $2.9 Million 2nd round tender wouldn't have given him what he wanted either.

Yep.  And I hope like hell we sign Meredith and that he’s so good this season that it turns out to be a bargain for the Bears.  It’s assumed he will be a starter for us. 

On a side note, last year the Bears signed New Orlean’s TE Josh Hill to an offer sheet.  The Saints were at the cap and it was kind of assumed he’d be a Chicago Bear.  The Saints waited until the last minute and matched the offer.  It could be Pace is going to pay back the favor and wait until the last minute.  

[Mongo3451]

I'd rather Pace act quickly as to swat them like a fly...

[adam]

From what I have read, if Meredith got a 2nd round tender, it would've prevented any team from making an offer (or setting the market), so Pace gave him an original round tender assuming that a team would set the market for Meredith, which the Saints did. The Saints couldn't create a crazy deal because they don't have much cap space to sign Meredith if the deal goes thru. So I will be shocked if the Bears let Meredith walk for nothing unless there are legitimate health concerns.

[BearFan2000]

One thing we don't or can't know is what was discussed at the negotiating table.  If he was offered a longer term deal but wanted more money, perhaps of the two options in the original round tender or second round tender perhaps Meredith chose the original round tender knowing it would result in more opportunities for teams to present him offer sheets knowing that if the Bears didn't match they wouldn't have to cough up a 2nd round pick to the Bears if they chose not to match.   The ravens bid on him but the saints offered a better deal and here we are. Pace has till tomorrow to match (which I think he will).  Had we signed him to the 2nd round tender it would limit the number of teams interested and perhaps eliminate teams even offering.  So he'd play here in 2018 for 2.9 mil.  Which if he wanted more money than that, it's possible he opted to take the original round tender.  If we match it works out for him and us, we get him for 2 years at a front loaded deal that wouldn't cost much to get out after next year if he proves to not bounce back well from the injury.  While if he does play well we can always extend him.     It's possible the Bears did him a solid and let him explore his options.  Remember we're talking about an UDFA who had one stand out year before having a serious season ending injury last year.  It's not like we're talking about an established star.  All we can do is speculate.  One way or another we'll find out by tomorrow how this plays out.

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, BearFan2000 said:

One thing we don't or can't know is what was discussed at the negotiating table.  If he was offered a longer term deal but wanted more money, perhaps of the two options in the original round tender or second round tender perhaps Meredith chose the original round tender knowing it would result in more opportunities for teams to present him offer sheets knowing that if the Bears didn't match they wouldn't have to cough up a 2nd round pick to the Bears if they chose not to match.   The ravens bid on him but the saints offered a better deal and here we are. Pace has till tomorrow to match (which I think he will).  Had we signed him to the 2nd round tender it would limit the number of teams interested and perhaps eliminate teams even offering.  So he'd play here in 2018 for 2.9 mil.  Which if he wanted more money than that, it's possible he opted to take the original round tender.  If we match it works out for him and us, we get him for 2 years at a front loaded deal that wouldn't cost much to get out after next year if he proves to not bounce back well from the injury.  While if he does play well we can always extend him.     It's possible the Bears did him a solid and let him explore his options.  Remember we're talking about an UDFA who had one stand out year before having a serious season ending injury last year.  It's not like we're talking about an established star.  All we can do is speculate.  One way or another we'll find out by tomorrow how this plays out.

yes I agree. thats what I was saying above too. Pace wanted a long term deal. Is 2 years enough? I dunno...

[Stinger226]

The possibility exists that they want to explore a cheaper option at WR in the draft. There should be plenty of prospects in the 4th round to add to the mix. We have no idea what they think of the other players on the roster, other than Robinson or Gabriel. They may think there is an option there we don't view that way. They have 4 good pass catching options on the team. Rob, Gabriel, Burton, Cohen, also Shaheen, Sims, and Howard will be used more. Now the problem is we do not have the depth if we have some injuries. I am for bringing Cam back at the price since we have a cheap QB and RB groupings. They are short contracts so when we need to pay MT , we can work everything out. They may like Tanner Gentry in this offense, never know what Nagy thinks of the WR group.

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The possibility exists that they want to explore a cheaper option at WR in the draft. There should be plenty of prospects in the 4th round to add to the mix. We have no idea what they think of the other players on the roster, other than Robinson or Gabriel. They may think there is an option there we don't view that way. They have 4 good pass catching options on the team. Rob, Gabriel, Burton, Cohen, also Shaheen, Sims, and Howard will be used more. Now the problem is we do not have the depth if we have some injuries. I am for bringing Cam back at the price since we have a cheap QB and RB groupings. They are short contracts so when we need to pay MT , we can work everything out. They may like Tanner Gentry in this offense, never know what Nagy thinks of the WR group.

GIven all the effort to surround Trubisky with weapons I'll be very surprised if we don't match the offer for Cam.  Relying on either Kevin White or a rookie WR doesn't fit with that.  I'd say if we don't match the offer, it indicates a significant concern over his injury recovery

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Pace surely would not let him go for nothing like he did Alshon. He is either returning the same stunt Loomis pulled on him when we tried stealing Josh Hill TE and Loomis came back last minute or totally miscalculated his worth and refuses to overspend a little. 

[BearFan PHX]

54 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Pace surely would not let him go for nothing like he did Alshon. He is either returning the same stunt Loomis pulled on him when we tried stealing Josh Hill TE and Loomis came back last minute or totally miscalculated his worth and refuses to overspend a little. 

Or two other possibilities if he doesnt sign him:

1) He just doesnt think he's that good. GMs DO disagree on the value of a player.

2) He thinks he will lose him in 2 years right when the window is open and doesn't think he's worth taking along for the ride just to lose him or have to overpay at the worst moment.

[Stinger226]

This is  not on Pace, if Nagy wanted him he will be here. They will be adding a FA and a draft pick. Neither will be making over a mil a year.