NFL Draft Day 3 Thread

[jason]

On 4/30/2018 at 12:28 AM, AZ54 said:

I'm not saying I or anyone else is as good as Fangio, or Pace, but I agree with Jason's point that teams make bad picks all the time and IMO some are so obvious even the fans can see them the day of the draft.  Phil Emery took that DT who jumped out of the pool but had very little production, even in his highlight films.  He took Brock Vereen, a safety who even I could see didn't play physical in college, and he really didn't standout athletically either.  That certainly didn't change in the NFL.  He drafted one DB who was injured so often he had no highlight film. 

Others that were obvious IMO to fans:  Jets Christian Hackenberg who couldn't even throw accurately at the Combine with nobody in his face.  Jake Locker, who was never accurate in college at 8th overall.  I'll state right now that I think Cleveland taking Denzel Ward #4 overall was big mistake that will be more obvious in 3 years when we see the careers of the players drafted afterward, including Roquan Smith.  Bradley Chubb alone will make it obvious in the first 4 games.  

As a bit of a hobby I've been kicking this draft stuff with y'all for about a decade or more.  I've learned some things about what to look for from everyone's comments, and after seeing how players transition to the NFL.  That includes learning from Angelo's and Emery's mistakes, as well as other teams (i.e. Cards Robert Nkemdiche), and at the top of the list my mistakes.  I thought Will Sutton and Kadeem Carey would both be more productive in the NFL as rotational players.  That honeymoon ended quickly.  I learned from that because with Sutton being short he didn't have the length needed to get off blocks in the NFL, nor did he have enough quickness/strength to get around them.  While I loved watching him run the ball, Carey just didn't have enough speed to be a starter, and as a backup he couldn't really contribute much on special teams.  That depth matters a lot when injuries hit a team.    

10-15 years ago it was hard for fans to really scout unless you watched a lot of college football.  We did have highlight videos but those really don't give a good impression of overall skills and effort of a player.  These days there is a cottage industry of film cut ups and player evaluations all over Youtube.  It's not hard to see the good and bad plays, or how a player might fit certain schemes and not others.  In this aspect,.on the field performance, I think these days fans who are doing research can have a pretty good idea of a lot of players' abilities.  Get down to Day 3 prospects and it's harder to find that game film but overall I don't think fans are "guessing" as much these days. 

We don't know the character of the players and we don't have the medical reports.   We also don't necessarily have those things about our own players (i.e. Cam Meredith) so we can't really know the team's future plans.  We also don't know some things like the college coaching and what players were asked to do.  We can somewhat understand under-performing players (Lorenzo Carter) who were coached by Mel Tucker, yet even in that environment Roquan Smith shined.  How will Smith do under Fangio?  Here is where I'm fine to defer to Pace and Fangio.  I liked Tremaine Edmunds over Roquan Smith.  Both are very good players with somewhat different skillsets.  I have no doubt it was character, leadership, and football knowledge that made Smith standout to Fangio and Pace.  Vic spent a full day with Smith going over film and talking defense, probably some individual workout stuff too.  I assume he did the same with Edmunds.   I'll be watching how the careers of both players unfold over the next few years.  

 

Very well said. This isn't the 1980s where only the teams hold information. If a fan wanted to, they could read and watch information about hundreds of players back to their high school days. Good comment on Jarron Gilbert, who I called a "pool jumping dickhead" a few years back.

It would be a fun exercise to point to a move or selection each year that each poster believes was a bad move. Personally, I think the Saints WAY over-reached on what they gave up to get Marcus Davenport.

[jason]

On 4/30/2018 at 10:27 AM, BearFan NYC said:

Right.

Since so many drafted players flame out in the NFL, predicting someone will suck and then having them suck does NOT mean that you know more than GMs.

To prove that, you'd need to list players you DO want to draft, only one in every round, who was available at your pick, and then follow to see how they progressed. That would be a fairer test.

 

We've done that for years on this board. The post draft analysis where we say what we would have done with the Bears picks. Maybe not in an official "This is the thread where we..." manner, but it's been done. It's just a matter of tracking back the details to see what the hit percentages are.

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, jason said:

We've done that for years on this board. The post draft analysis where we say what we would have done with the Bears picks. Maybe not in an official "This is the thread where we..." manner, but it's been done. It's just a matter of tracking back the details to see what the hit percentages are.

no, youre all over the place. I've seen you change from one player to another, from one position to another.

You are not an NFL GM, you just arent. And you dont have a scouting and coaching staff to fall back on, you just dont.

Here's a direct challenge. Accurately predict the outcome of the 5 QBs selected in round one. DO it here, concretely, with stats predictions for the next 3 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

[Alaskan Grizzly]

15 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

no, youre all over the place. I've seen you change from one player to another, from one position to another.

You are not an NFL GM, you just arent. And you dont have a scouting and coaching staff to fall back on, you just dont.

Here's a direct challenge. Accurately predict the outcome of the 5 QBs selected in round one. DO it here, concretely, with stats predictions for the next 3 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

Don't the "experts" do that same thing with mock draft 2.0, 3.0 etc?  I'm fairly confident that GM's (and their staffs) do the same thing, but behind closed doors.  There was this cat who is an area scout for the Bears doing an interview with Lauren Screeden (believe his name was Sam Summervile) talking about his meeting(s) with 1st round pick Smith.  During his talk he mentioned how excited they were in the war room that Smith was still available to them at 8 and how concerned they were he may not have been.  What if he hadn't?  More than likely they would have had to go with option 1a, or 1b.  That by itself tells you how fluid this type thing is.  Looking at Summerviles's history with the Bears, he's also scouted former players Khaseem Greene and Deon Bush (as well as Eddie Jackson, Cohen and Goldman) so he's not even been 100%. 

One thing I can say for Jason is that he's consistently been an Oline guy.  He and I, and others, have gone back and forth on what the basis for a good team needs, especially through the draft.  He is of the opinion that it is oline, I beg to differ.  But he's always been pretty consistent with that. For anyone to be able to accurately predict how the top 5 QB candidates this year will do is crazy. Of them we have no real concrete way of knowing when they'll start.  Even with Mayfield, they have a pretty capable player in Taylor signed on.  But even if they were all to start on game one there's no way of predicting how well they'll do.  What about injury or other intangibles that cannot be forecasted?  I'm still of the opinion that Watson would have been the better pick than Trubisky.  But Watson was slowed by injury after coming out the gates quickly whereas Trubisky was mired by an un-imaginative offense (or so we hope).

[jason]

10 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

no, youre all over the place. I've seen you change from one player to another, from one position to another.

You are not an NFL GM, you just arent. And you dont have a scouting and coaching staff to fall back on, you just dont.

Here's a direct challenge. Accurately predict the outcome of the 5 QBs selected in round one. DO it here, concretely, with stats predictions for the next 3 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

Just because you don't want to go back and look for something doesn't make it true. What you are mentioning has been done on this board many times over the years.

As for your direct challenge, I'll do it, but there is one problem. We don't know what the players would have done on any other team. A player's success or failure has a lot to do with the talent and team around him. If Tom Brady had been drafted by the Bears he would not be married to Giselle or have won the SB multiple times. It's just a 100% guarantee.

As for the QBs, here's my best guess as for the current situation.

• Baker Mayfield - He'll look like a spark plug, energize with some great plays here and there, but ultimately won't amount to much more than average. Mostly because the Cleveland Browns are the Cleveland Browns. Towards his final contract year the team will struggle with the decision to re-sign him or draft another QB.
• Sam Darnold - I don't think he'll start right away. Their WRs and OL are a mess, and I couldn't tell you who is going to play TE for them. By the time his rookie contract ends he'll have shown enough to be their QB of the future.
• Josh Allen - Bust. He had problems at a lower level college environment.
• Josh Rosen - I think he'll be the one who will have the most success. Their talent level on offense is pretty good, and there are already talks of figuring out how to get rid of Sam Bradford. On top of that, the Browns decided against Rosen because of a volleyball player's comments at an airport.
• Lamar Jackson - I love Ozzie Newsome and his drafting style in general, so I have a hard time doubting him. Flacco is near the end, and I think they'll have sub-packages to put in Lamar Jackson here and there. He'll be electric like Michael Vick. But his success hinges on protection and skill players who make him comfortable enough he doesn't feel the need to run every other down.

All of the above is still an uncertainty, mostly because nobody knows what the teams will or won't do with the other several dozen positions over the next few years. If they ignore the OL like the Bears have done, then none of the guys above will likely have a chance at sustained success.

[ChileBear]

Jason " As for your direct challenge, I'll do it, but there is one problem. We don't know what the players would have done on any other team. A player's success or failure has a lot to do with the talent and team around him. " Was that you or Jay Cuttler? And, yes, " All of the above is still an uncertainty, mostly because nobody knows what the teams will or won't do with the other several dozen positions over the next few years." Great qualifiers/outs. So, really, tell us where you are.

[Stinger226]

We will have one post each year we list at the top and just put in who we like and who we do not like. We can use the Bears as the example. Like for this year I think R Smith has the best upside, and a lot liked Edmunds better, well three years later is the best to look at it and by then we get bored with it. 

So here is 5 players I think we suceed big in the league and 5 that will be busts from this years draft. Now someone can become a starter but not be special and consider that a bust type of player.

5 I like ;   I was all over Smith before and suspect he will be have several pro bowls and will be the leader of the defense.

                I have to go with Miller, not just because we drafted him but he has the makeup and work ethic to succeed at this level in a special way.

                 I think Connor Williams ends up having some pro bowl years at guard.

               I think Quentin Nelson is an all pro from day one. A no brainer everybody would be on board with, but would have like the Bears to have got him.

              I think Isaiah Oliver ends up being one of better CBs in this years draft.

5 that will bust:

              None of the 5 first QBs in this draft will be special, a few will start but will be more of a Cousins type that can have some moments but is not elite.

              Hernandez got lots of acclaim but will become a starter but not be an elite type of OG. I would say a Rickie Incognito type of career, good but not great.

             I think Davenport will become a starter but not be a top 10 edge rusher. It always seems to me that physical freaks  lose more than they become good.  

            Josh Jackson will be a good CB but not consider elite for CBs.

            Orlando Brown was taken in the 3rd round and I predict will bust in the league, have a hard time staying with a team. No desire.

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, ChileBear said:

Jason " As for your direct challenge, I'll do it, but there is one problem. We don't know what the players would have done on any other team. A player's success or failure has a lot to do with the talent and team around him. " Was that you or Jay Cuttler? And, yes, " All of the above is still an uncertainty, mostly because nobody knows what the teams will or won't do with the other several dozen positions over the next few years." Great qualifiers/outs. So, really, tell us where you are.

exactly.

All you did was say how a quarterback would fit into those teams. That was really a read on the teams wasnt it?

I'm asking you to do talent evaluation.

Anyway the point is rhetorical mostly because you're not an NFL GM. You have neither the skill nor the support of scouts and coaches, nor the amount of time nor the access to the materials they have.

Why do I say you dont have the skill? Because if you did, you wouldnt put yourself up as a GM without having those things. You'd know better.

Seriously, dude, your ego is out of control.

[BearFan PHX]

Also, while I agree it is a lot of fun, as fans to do these predictions, and everyone is entitled to their opinions...

My point isn't that I am better at this than Jason, my point is that none of us is on the level of Pace and Halas Hall.

It is totally weird that for 20 years this team didn't have a GM. They were very bad at this then, and MAYBE one of us could have done similarly than NOT HAVING a GM.

And yes, GMs win and lose, but to think that any of us is prepared to make those 4th round picks from only the news sources we have is crazy.

[Mongo3451]

19 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

Also, while I agree it is a lot of fun, as fans to do these predictions, and everyone is entitled to their opinions...

My point isn't that I am better at this than Jason, my point is that none of us is on the level of Pace and Halas Hall.

It is totally weird that for 20 years this team didn't have a GM. They were very bad at this then, and MAYBE one of us could have done similarly than NOT HAVING a GM.

And yes, GMs win and lose, but to think that any of us is prepared to make those 4th round picks from only the news sources we have is crazy.

Completely agree.  We do not access to what former teammates, coaches, doctors and private detectives have to say.  We can't look the candidate in the eye and ask him our questions.

[jason]

On 5/1/2018 at 1:38 PM, ChileBear said:

Jason " As for your direct challenge, I'll do it, but there is one problem. We don't know what the players would have done on any other team. A player's success or failure has a lot to do with the talent and team around him. " Was that you or Jay Cuttler? And, yes, " All of the above is still an uncertainty, mostly because nobody knows what the teams will or won't do with the other several dozen positions over the next few years." Great qualifiers/outs. So, really, tell us where you are.

Qualifiers are truths in this situation. Randy Moss drafted by the Bears never turns into Randy Moss.

[Stinger226]

That is true, but if you were a GM,. you would try to get a player that fits what your doing and put him in the best place to succeed. There are so many variables involved in the process of having a draftee be successful its very difficult, that is why the NFL scouts and GMs are only 50/50.